Trump 2.0

Yeah, the 0.3% drop in 1Q is most likely due to the stockpiling, but the hurt is definitely coming. Maybe a rebound next Q, and maybe avoiding recession entirely (2 consecutive Qs of negative growth), but whatever it turns out to be it will still be a far cry from the 2.5% or so that analysts had expected had Trump done absolutely nothing, and just let the Biden economy continue.

As billvon mentioned above regarding DOGE, their supposed savings of $160bn (of which <$35bn has receipts, and even those have mistakes) will actually result in a cost to tax-payer (or so says some analysis by the Partnership for Public Service) of $135bn this year. Admittedly much of this is not recurring, while some of the cuts will continue in perpetuity (e.g. payroll costs - maybe c.$3-4bn p.a.), but the $135bn figure this year also doesn't include items such as reduced tax receipts due to a reduced headcount in the IRS, with more people and businesses evading tax and not being challenged. They think this may result in lost revenue of c.$320bn over 10 years.

So whether DOGE has even saved the government any money in the long-term is questionable, and I have no doubt that the Democrats, when they get hold of any power, will launch investigations into the matter, and the entire handling of the DOGE nonsense.
 
Yeah, the 0.3% drop in 1Q is most likely due to the stockpiling, but the hurt is definitely coming. Maybe a rebound next Q, and maybe avoiding recession entirely (2 consecutive Qs of negative growth), but whatever it turns out to be it will still be a far cry from the 2.5% or so that analysts had expected had Trump done absolutely nothing, and just let the Biden economy continue.

As billvon mentioned above regarding DOGE, their supposed savings of $160bn (of which <$35bn has receipts, and even those have mistakes) will actually result in a cost to tax-payer (or so says some analysis by the Partnership for Public Service) of $135bn this year. Admittedly much of this is not recurring, while some of the cuts will continue in perpetuity (e.g. payroll costs - maybe c.$3-4bn p.a.), but the $135bn figure this year also doesn't include items such as reduced tax receipts due to a reduced headcount in the IRS, with more people and businesses evading tax and not being challenged. They think this may result in lost revenue of c.$320bn over 10 years.

So whether DOGE has even saved the government any money in the long-term is questionable, and I have no doubt that the Democrats, when they get hold of any power, will launch investigations into the matter, and the entire handling of the DOGE nonsense.
Hmm, if the Democrats ever regain power I think they might be well-advised not to waste too much time on retrospective investigations. It won't serve democracy well if it becomes a game of witch-hunting and then sanctimoniously grandstanding over each other's previous terms in office. If criminality is suspected, though, then of course.

It looks as if both China and Trump are signalling that a way needs to be found to climb down. Actually I hope this takes several months to bear fruit. I think it would do the country good to see what they have done to themselves by re-electing Trump. That penny won't drop until the man in the street experiences some real discomfort.
 
Hmm, if the Democrats ever regain power I think they might be well-advised not to waste too much time on retrospective investigations. It won't serve democracy well if it becomes a game of witch-hunting and then sanctimoniously grandstanding over each other's previous terms in office. If criminality is suspected, though, then of course.
I'm really thinking DOGE specifically: the damage caused needs to be accounted for and highlighted, so that not so much the intent but the approach can be understood to have actually hurt the country. If they find that it really has saved money, has cut waste, inefficiency, and fraud etc, then great, let's make that known as well. But if they have lied then this needs to be shown for what it is, and the bigger the lies the more they should be torn down. This was one of Trump's key policies, and currently there is little but gaslightling about it.
Anything illegal that they've done, either DOGE or any other official, then sure, go for them. They would need to be careful not to make it look like a partisan witch-hunt, and of course be very careful that they hold themselves to the same standards.

It looks as if both China and Trump are signalling that a way needs to be found to climb down. Actually I hope this takes several months to bear fruit. I think it would do the country good to see what they have done to themselves by re-electing Trump. That penny won't drop until the man in the street experiences some real discomfort.
I agree, although I wouldn't usually wish such pain on the average-Joe, especially those that voted but not for Trump.
What media seems to be ignoring, though, is that the cancellation - or even reduction - of tariffs will massively impact the budget. Any monies that the American population doesn't pay in the tariff / tax will either mean further cuts to spending elsewhere, or cancellation of Trump's intended tax-cuts (or a reduction in the extension of existing cuts), or an increase in the national debt. By pushing "Tariff the world! We're going to be so rich!" as his economic plan, to turn round and effectively give that up is to trash that plan comprehensively. Yes, he'll say "we've got better trading agreements with other countries" (yet to be seen) but it is highly unlikely that that will generate all that much additional tax revenue from the increased exports. And all the jobs? Bringing back manufacturing? Pipedreams.
 
Hmm, if the Democrats ever regain power I think they might be well-advised not to waste too much time on retrospective investigations. It won't serve democracy well if it becomes a game of witch-hunting and then sanctimoniously grandstanding over each other's previous terms in office. If criminality is suspected, though, then of course.

Imagine that.

Why is it that the Democrats shouldn't do something because it won't serve democracy if Republicans ... what?
 
Inarticulate as usual, I see. :rolleyes:

Fine, let's try this again:

Hmm, if the Democrats ever regain power I think they might be well-advised not to waste too much time on retrospective investigations. It won't serve democracy well if it becomes a game of witch-hunting and then sanctimoniously grandstanding over each other's previous terms in office.

How unsurprising↑.
 
And as if to prove to people that he's sane, that he's respectful, that he's not all about himself, and that he has no intention of insulting many of his base of followers: he posts an AI generated image of him as Pope. I won't post it here, but it's not difficult to find.

He had joked earlier in the week, when asked who he would like to be Pope, that he would himself to be Pope. Sure, a one-line joke that can be brushed off as merely stupid and pathetic, but this picture... wow. A whole other level or nine of wrong. I really hope that this comes back to haunt him. especially as 6 of the 9 Justices of the SCOTUS are Catholic (which is an entirely other question in itself, given that only c.25% of the US is Catholic).
 
Also in the news: Trump has posted that his administration will be removing Harvard's tax-exempt status. As political retribution. And it is a blatantly illegal act, as US law specifically prohibits presidents from directing the IRS to investigate anyone. And after any investigation that the IRS did it found that the tax-exempt status should be removed, there is due-process to follow, including allowing Harvard to address the issues, and to challenge. None of that would seem to be provided here.
The IRS can't legally just remove the status either, without some justification. And the justification can not be "oh, the President told us to". It must be some breach of the laws/rules that would otherwise allow Harvard to be tax-exempt. The argument would likely be that Harvard are acting "politically" and "not in the public interest" by failing to kowtow to Trump's demands to change some of their policies. Even so, a long fight lies ahead, I'm sure.
And none of it removes the illegality of Trump seemingly directing the IRS to investigate someone/thing.

But he's been given immunity. So. Yeah. There's that. No recourse. At least until Legislative branch grow a spine.
 
Also in the news: Trump has posted that his administration will be removing Harvard's tax-exempt status. As political retribution. And it is a blatantly illegal act, as US law specifically prohibits presidents from directing the IRS to investigate anyone. And after any investigation that the IRS did it found that the tax-exempt status should be removed, there is due-process to follow, including allowing Harvard to address the issues, and to challenge. None of that would seem to be provided here.
The IRS can't legally just remove the status either, without some justification. And the justification can not be "oh, the President told us to". It must be some breach of the laws/rules that would otherwise allow Harvard to be tax-exempt. The argument would likely be that Harvard are acting "politically" and "not in the public interest" by failing to kowtow to Trump's demands to change some of their policies. Even so, a long fight lies ahead, I'm sure.
And none of it removes the illegality of Trump seemingly directing the IRS to investigate someone/thing.

But he's been given immunity. So. Yeah. There's that. No recourse. At least until Legislative branch grow a spine.
Presumably the IRS should just ignore this then, and so should Harvard.
 
Presumably the IRS should just ignore this then, and so should Harvard.
The IRS is headed up by a Trump lacky, and I think they're currently "exploring ways that it can be removed", but the issue is that there's a process they have to follow, and Harvard can challenge. It's not as simple as Trump snapping his fingers and it happens. :)
 
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The IRS is headed up by a Trump lacky, and I think they're currently "exploring ways that it can be removed", but the issue is that there's a process they have to follow, and Harvard can challenge. It's not as simple as Trump snapping his fingers and it happens. :)
Certainly not at Harvard. I hope all that knowledge, intelligence, and experience comes down like a ton of bricks on that SOB.

"You broke into the wrong god damn basement didn't ya!?"
 
When the NYT reporter asked DOGE about this their response was swift - they removed all the HTML data from the site so nothing could be checked.

Was a time when this sort of thing would have been important.

Let me correct that: There was a time when a Democratic administration doing that might have resulted in articles of impeachment. And no, that's not hyperbole, even if Republicans have shown a long tendency to hyperventilate and overstate their complaints about what's wrong with Democrats, women, homosexuals, "liberal Christianity", food relief, housing relief, health care, doctors, human rights, lawyers, unions, &c.

During the Obama administration, Republicans even complained about "unprecedented" presidential behavior in which the only thing unprecedented was that the president was black.

Billvon, as long as we've known each other, you've always run somewhere to the political right of me, and like many people who don't count themselves as right-wingers, or, in some cases, conservatives, there is a tacit hesitance in your approach to liberalism. My father was a Reagan Republican, came to loathe what conservatives were doing, but to the end remained guarded against Democrats. My brother is similar in that he never wanted to be called a Republican, despite supporting conservatives for years, and now that he doesn't, he still simply cannot take up a more liberal position than his old politics. It is as if people are holding out for a real conservatism to show up and rescue them from liberals and rightists alike. And the thing is, that's not going to happen; anyone selling them that idea was lying. There is no threshold at which a silent majority of conservatives will finally speak and set the GOP straight.

Another way of looking at it is to consider prominent nevertrumpers, like Bill Kristol, David French, Charlie Sykes, and maybe even Tom Nichols.

For instance, the idea that it's not racism, but just reality. Truth is that most nevertrump conservatives would still accept and even encourage disparate impact. This was the whole grappling with conscience that only took as long as, say, Donald Trump's nomination. Their whole problem with Trump's approach isn't the hatred or its impacts on people's lives, but that Trump kept saying it out loud. What we've learned over the period since is that it doesn't hurt the GOP to say those parts out loud.

Meanwhile, it was never about all that, but supporters had other reasons. Like the prosperity they never got never got from union-busting. Optimizing school funding never improved outcomes. Hardlining crime doesn't seem to make us any safer. In fact, following these routes seems to have made things worse, and it's easy for someone like me to wonder if that was the point. Even the great conservative policy idea of our time, the individual mandate, turns out to be something they never really believed in. However, what those arguments did get them was the opportunity to feel empowered with mean spirit.

To suggest this is a conservative motive apparently remains shocking. Still, there is history: The Southern Strategy, for instance, can actually do a pretty good job explaining certain behavior. Moreover, this seeking of empowerment is evident in diverse conservative political issues.

And it goes beyond, say, Republicans. Think of thresholds: What is it that moves an atheist to stand shoulder to shoulder with notorious religion? What moves a skeptic to abandon science? Mythbusting is one thing, but when facts intrude on personal beliefs, conflicts arise, and here we might consider the internal.

By contrast, lust can turn the pious man to sin, and the opportunity to markedly improve one's financial status can test the most communist or christianist or whatever among us. But this is different. I don't need to hate a black man in order to get laid. I don't need to hate transgender in order to win the lottery, or even sell my soul for financial return.

The difference is empowerment to inflict, which is, in its way, a manner of true power. And if I suggest it is evident in American conservative politics in a way that it isn't in liberal, that has to do with what is doctrinal, catechismal, or archetypal, as such. In our historical moment, this empowerment to inflict goes beyond any one question.

It's one thing, for instance, if infliction was always present in a discussion like capital punishment, but American society has, in this Trump term, surpassed the informant and snatcher thresholds. And you know this ends with a body count; the administration is already testing habeas corpus to the point of refusing proof of life. Think back to, say, the Reagan years, and the tough-on-crime talk, or, later, Justice Scalia feeling personally affronted when his colleagues further curtailed the death penalty, twenty years ago. Were conservatives always like this?

Because, yeah, I could have told you that, back in the day. And you, for instance, are someone already aware that sort of thing was customarily inappropriate. That is to say, sure, I could have told you, back in the day, but even before Godwin, it was considered out of bounds. Remember, that was a time when freedom was defined, in part, by censorship.

And that sense of empowerment, that solidarity through infliction, has been a constant feature: A core component of the Republican pitch over the years is who needs to be excluded, disqualified, refused, and punished.

For a child of the Cold War, like me, the strange contrast between the projected tyranny of the leftist spectre and the functional tyranny of the right has always stood out. It's like the saying, the last few years, that every accusation is a confession, except, come on, we're talking about the course of fifty, nearly sixty years. Once upon a time, they held back, stopped short, and understood the importance of not taking it so far.

The thing is, nevertrumpers like Kristol, French, and Sykes will, at first opportunity, return to the Southern Strategy, that it's not infliction, just the way of things, and it's not their fault who gets in the way of nature. All the mean spirit of the right has to do is let them come back. But that's the thing, isn't it? What happened ten years ago looks more like people finally got tired of keeping it to themselves.

Please consider, Bill, part of the reason you think I'm so rude and extreme is how I regard and respond to certain elements when I encounter them. Flip-side, please consider that while I might have a few reasons to recall the Anthrax song, "Keep It In the Family", that was also thirty-five years ago, and if the song applies today, it was also inappropriate and uppity and offensive in the same way, then, that some might suggest, today: "'Cause Daddy hated this, and Mommy hated that, and your own ability to reason's like a tire gone flat." It's been as true of these elements, throughout, as in its moment thirty-five years ago.

And maybe I might try sarcasm, like, oh, how wrong of anyone to be so weary of yet another go'round the mulberry monte, but if that kind of logic worked we would be having entirely different discussions about different issues.

Thus, please consider that you have just had the experience, in the Rowling thread, of walking people through yet another iteration of a discussion that has been going 'round and 'round for over a decade, and might well, in that context, have been over before it started.

(see, "Trump 2.0" #1068-1076↑, above, and "Ms. Rowling …" #13↗, to connect these threads; you are, of course, familiar with your own contribution to the other.)​

And, having just gone through it, what do you think: Did it take, this time? That is, compared to the last thirty-five years, at least, or even fifty to sixty years, did the underlying reality and principles click with them, or is this another occasion when they feel inflicted upon and frogmarched into unquestioning acceptance? You know, like that whole thing with political correctness and thought police, around forty years ago? Or, more recently, the "intellectual dark web"↗, silencing↗ and "cancel culture".

Like the old difference between tolerating the Coloreds because the law says so compared to actually recognizing the humanity and equality of a black person.

That is, here we are, seven weeks and forty pages later, and from that point of departure, what did we find along the way?

Inasmuch as you find my take on such issues extreme, you, Bill, can tell us something particular and important: Do you think you actually got through in any constructive, durable way?

Because I don't think you did, and in that case there's something else you might be able to shed a little light on: How long can people stay on course before you accept that's really where they're going? Absolutely nothing new happened in the Rowling digression, so to me it's just another predictable episode in a never-changing story. But for someone still willing to try to take them by the hand and coax their prejudice back toward reality, maybe somewhere in there you saw a sign.

 
Billvon, as long as we've known each other, you've always run somewhere to the political right of me, and like many people who don't count themselves as right-wingers, or, in some cases, conservatives, there is a tacit hesitance in your approach to liberalism.
He reminds me of Jonathan Pie.
 
Woke up this morning to the wonderful news that Trump has authorised tariffs on the movie industry!! Bonkers.

So it seems that Trump has been told that the many of the movies that are made, including many "hollywood" blockbusters, are actually filmed and have much work done overseas. He sees this as a "National Security threat" to the US - and because he says foreign productions bring "messaging and propaganda" into the country! Which in itself is insane.
His response: while not exactly fleshed out, or in any way clarified beyond the apparent headline, his response is to impose 100% tariffs on "any and all" movies produced in "foreign lands". Anyone have any idea what this would mean in practice?? Nope? Well, you're not alone, as noone else seems to be sure either.
However, the general consensus is that imposing such a move would actually have the exact opposite effect of that which it's trying to achieve. The best way to promote the US as the place to make your film is to provide tax incentives, such as those offered by other countries. Penalising your own studios for making films abroad?? Well, that's only going to limit what you can do with your budget, given how much more expensive it will be in the US. Films are made in Hungary, for example, because it is so much cheaper to film there.

And what about streaming services? Presumably the likes of Netflix pay the rights-holders of foreign films for the right to stream the film in the US, so presumably the costs they pay will now be doubled? And presumably it won't affect the costs of what's streamed in other countries. I have no doubt that if this is the case, that Netflix would up its monthly price, but do so around the globe, so that UK streamers in essence subsidise those increases for US consumers. If that's the case, I would happily boycott such streaming services - any tariff imposed on US audiences by US government should be borne exclusively by the US consumers!

Anyhoo - it's bonkers. It really is. Another "Oh, no! National Emergency! National Security requires it!" Sure. 'Cos, you know, the US economy was doing so bad that this just needs to be done. And California, the home of the US movie industry, was clearly suffering, given that it's now something like the 4th largest economy in its own right!

Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Just another day in Trump 2.0

1,356 days to go.


Oh, and he's ordered the reopening of a rebuilt and enlarged Alcatraz prison.
Must be a slow news day. ;)
 
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And elsewhere, here's something to show just how much the Republicans in Congress are simply there to do whatever Trump tells them, even when it is, frankly, obscene:
(yeah, it's reddit, I know. Sorry).

Anyhoo - transcript of the good part... for those who don't like such links:
"Raise your hand if you do not think children with cancer who are American citizens should be deported...."

It's all about an amendment that the Democrats are trying to introduce to a bill regarding deportation, that would stop US citizens from being detained and/or deported by ICE. As you can see, it's a relatively simple question/request.
All the Democrats raised their hands.
None of the Republicans did.

Sure, it's likely that they didn't all actually think that any young American citizen with cancer should be deported (which the Democrats are saying could happen without the amendment they're pushing for) but the optice... oh, the optics... of not seemingly having a shred of humanity.

Will this clip see much light on mainstream media, though?

Here's a longer article on the matter: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...ting-americans-in-unusual-immigration-markup/
 
Will this clip see much light on mainstream media, though?
Have seen no mention on MSM I peruse. The level of ass kissing sycophancy and groveling 47 receives is often jawdropping. Marina Hyde in The Guardian was commenting sharply on how even foreign officials (Starmer was exampled re 47 asking some eligibility decision reversed so he could host the 2028 Open at Turdberry) so easily kneel to his orangeness.
 
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