What will the economy look like when robots take over most of the jobs as a result of scientific and technological progress?

[DaveC426913]

Politics and economics go together. I also don't like the leveling that was in the USSR. That's why I was interested in what would act as an incentive in a society where there is no money.

Money is simply a way of setting a standard for trading goods and services.

I think my paintings are worth at least four chickens, but you don't have chickens; you fix cars. If only there was a way of converting chickens into hours of car repairs!

The physical money may go away, but I think there will always be the need for a standard of exchange of goods and services.

Only the most talented, capable of creating something new, will be able to work in jobs that are inaccessible to AI. There are few of them. Will we not get a division into new elites and those who will live on benefits?

Isn't that what we have now?

Most of us work jobs that are not creative and do our creative work on the side. There will always be a market for hand-made, bespoke goods. There will always be a counter-culture that rejects mass produced goods and services. And there will always be starving artists. Most musicians today are starving artists, yet there's no lack of indie bands.

 

[ольга]

Money is simply a way of setting a standard for trading goods and services.

I think my paintings are worth at least four chickens, but you don't have chickens; you fix cars. If only there was a way of converting chickens into hours of car repairs!

The physical money may go away, but I think there will always be the need for a standard of exchange of goods and services.


Isn't that what we have now?

Most of us work jobs that are not creative and do our creative work on the side. There will always be a market for hand-made, bespoke goods. There will always be a counter-culture that rejects mass produced goods and services. And there will always be starving artists. Most musicians today are starving artists, yet there's no lack of indie bands.

Если только мы сохраним культуру, и останутся те, кто ценит настоящее творчество. Потому что незатейливые песенки может писать и ИИ. Уже пишет, и народ это слушает. Что то по настоящему красивое сейчас ещё нужно постараться чтобы найти.
Ресурсы - да, их ИИ не заменит. Они могут стать средством влияния для тех, кто ими владеет. Не зря сейчас ломают копья из-за них. Но таких тоже немного. Мне кажется, мы идём в сторону общества, которым будут управлять те, кто сосредоточил в своих руках ресурсы и технологии. Такой аналог греческого пантеона.

 

[TheVat]

Robots don't get paid, so they don't have any money. Peaple don't have jobs, so they don't have money either. Will the money stay in the economy?

Companies hire labor, of whatever type. And they hire labor only when there are customers who will purchase the products they make. If people didn't have some income, then companies would not hire robots or AI, because there would be no market for the product and no way to accumulate capital to even begin. If robots are producing something, it will be because people have found tasks that AI cannot do (arts, therapy, handcrafts, decision-making where human consciousness is needed, special companionship, etc) and thus gain income from that. (Or there is an entirely different government, where everyone receives a UBI, a Universal Basic Income)

If robots are eventually doing most of the necessary work, then everyone else can work just a few hours and still afford to spend disposable income, since the labor costs of goods will be lower. One exception, however, would be finite resources - for example, you might need more money if you wanted to live on a beautiful beachfront and you desired that more than you desired having lots of free time. Some personality types would work long hours because they like work and chasing ambitious goals of some kind. There would be some who search for creative tasks that biological humans have a special aptitude for doing.

 

[ольга]

Companies hire labor, of whatever type. And they hire labor only when there are customers who will purchase the products they make. If people didn't have some income, then companies would not hire robots or AI, because there would be no market for the product and no way to accumulate capital to even begin. If robots are producing something, it will be because people have found tasks that AI cannot do (arts, therapy, handcrafts, decision-making where human consciousness is needed, special companionship, etc) and thus gain income from that. (Or there is an entirely different government, where everyone receives a UBI, a Universal Basic Income)

If robots are eventually doing most of the necessary work, then everyone else can work just a few hours and still afford to spend disposable income, since the labor costs of goods will be lower. One exception, however, would be finite resources - for example, you might need more money if you wanted to live on a beautiful beachfront and you desired that more than you desired having lots of free time. Some personality types would work long hours because they like work and chasing ambitious goals of some kind. There would be some who search for creative tasks that biological humans have a special aptitude for doing.

А если в будущем создадут ИИ превосходящий человека по всем параметрам? Который и эксклюзивные вещи сможет делать, и картины писать, и симфонии, и управлять бесстрастно, без человеческих амбиций, жадности, зависти, и пр.? Т.е.заменит человека практически во всём. Человеку не нужно будет работать совсем. Как при рабовладельческом строе, только в роли рабов будут роботы. Кто будет покупать производимую ими продукцию?

 

[TheVat]

And what if in the future they create an AI that surpasses humans in all respects? Which will be able to make exclusive things, paint pictures, compose symphonies, and manage dispassionately, without human ambitions, greed, envy, etc.? That is, it will replace humans in almost everything. Humans will not need to work at all. Like under the slave system, only the slaves will be robots. Who will buy the products they produce?

The question is how something without those emotions would "surpass humans in all respects." Do you think a symphony from a dispassionate and unemotional being would be worth listening to? Do you think a being without feelings would do a good job managing a society of humans (I think we already know the answer to this)? In any case, if some benign AI ran society and had a vast robot labor force to make everything needed, that would be the end of a money-based economy.

 

[ольга]

The question is how something without those emotions would "surpass humans in all respects." Do you think a symphony from a dispassionate and unemotional being would be worth listening to? Do you think a being without feelings would do a good job managing a society of humans (I think we already know the answer to this)? In any case, if some benign AI ran society and had a vast robot labor force to make everything needed, that would be the end of a money-based economy.

Насчёт симфонии не знаю, но музыку попроще ИИ уже пишет. Но он может разобрать симфонию по частям, понять какие комбинации звуков вызывают те или иные эмоции, и попробовать создать нечто, что будет вызывать море чувств, основываясь не на интуиции, а на трезвом расчёте.

Это было бы общество, чем то похожее на Древний Рим. Только они плохо закончили. И не из-за восстания рабов, а просто общество внутренне разложилось и деградировало. У людей должны быть какие цели и смыслы в жизни. Без этого у многих начинается погоня за удовольствиями, наркотики, алкоголизм, и пр. А вы как думаете - в чём смысл человеческого существования, если проблема простого выживания станет уже не актуальной? И даже творчеством будет заниматься ИИ?

 

[parmalee]

The question is how something without those emotions would "surpass humans in all respects." Do you think a symphony from a dispassionate and unemotional being would be worth listening to? Do you think a being without feelings would do a good job managing a society of humans (I think we already know the answer to this)? In any case, if some benign AI ran society and had a vast robot labor force to make everything needed, that would be the end of a money-based economy.

For a rough approximation of this experience, compare anything from Shostakovich composed prior 1936 to his work composed following The Great Purge. His later work is technically fine, in every respect, just wholly lifeless, conservative and just plain boring:

Many commentators have noted the disjunction between the experimental works before the 1936 denunciation and the more conservative ones that followed; the composer told Flora Litvinova, "without 'Party guidance' ... I would have displayed more brilliance, used more sarcasm, I could have revealed my ideas openly instead of having to resort to camouflage."[131] Articles Shostakovich published in 1934 and 1935 cited Berg, Schoenberg, Krenek, Hindemith, "and especially Stravinsky" among his influences.[132] Key works of the earlier period are the First Symphony, which combined the academicism of the conservatory with his progressive inclinations; The Nose ("The most uncompromisingly modernist of all his stage-works"[133]); Lady Macbeth, which precipitated the denunciation; and the Fourth Symphony, described in Grove's Dictionary as "a colossal synthesis of Shostakovich's musical development to date".[134] The Fourth was also the first piece in which Mahler's influence came to the fore, prefiguring the route Shostakovich took to secure his rehabilitation, while he himself admitted that the preceding two were his least successful.[135]

Dmitri Shostakovich - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Already, plenty of people are using AI assisted music production techniques--especially with respect to drumming. Back in the day, naysayers would whine about drum machines being lifeless and all that (which was kinda the point in many instances, but that's another matter). If you find something unsatisfying about conventional drum machines outside of their "appropriate" context, just compare such to AI facilitated drum tracks, wherein the intent is to inject a "human" element to the patterns. I would say that there's nothing more depressing, but I suppose there are plenty of things more depressing. Still, it sucks.

 

[ольга]

For a rough approximation of this experience, compare anything from Shostakovich composed prior 1936 to his work composed following The Great Purge. His later work is technically fine, in every respect, just wholly lifeless, conservative and just plain boring:

Dmitri Shostakovich - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Already, plenty of people are using AI assisted music production techniques--especially with respect to drumming. Back in the day, naysayers would whine about drum machines being lifeless and all that (which was kinda the point in many instances, but that's another matter). If you find something unsatisfying about conventional drum machines outside of their "appropriate" context, just compare such to AI facilitated drum tracks, wherein the intent is to inject a "human" element to the patterns. I would say that there's nothing more depressing, but I suppose there are plenty of things more depressing. Still, it sucks.

Что такое эмоции? Это обычные химические реакции. Их можно вызывать искусственно. Некоторые так и делают. При желании можно и ИИ снабдить эмоциями, только зачем? Человек - это набор химических реакций, и от этих мыслей мне становится тоскливо.

 

[parmalee]

Что такое эмоции? Это обычные химические реакции. Их можно вызывать искусственно. Некоторые так и делают. При желании можно и ИИ снабдить эмоциями, только зачем? Человек - это набор химических реакций, и от этих мыслей мне становится тоскливо.

Emotions certainly can be induced artificially, but somehow such is never all that convincing to people who are sensitive to these things.

With Shostakovich, for instance, plenty of people aren't gonna be able to suss the difference. But plenty will be able to--and it's got nothing to do, necessarily, with having the proper formal, educational background, it's just... people sense it. It's entirely subjective at it's core.

Likewise with AI drumming. Drumming has been studied extensively, even within the context of academia and peer-reviewed work and all that. We know much of what makes drumming "feel" "human"--not everything, but plenty. Yet somehow, even the best AI sounds like shit.

 

[ольга]

Emotions certainly can be induced artificially, but somehow such is never all that convincing to people who are sensitive to these things.

With Shostakovich, for instance, plenty of people aren't gonna be able to suss the difference. But plenty will be able to--and it's got nothing to do, necessarily, with having the proper formal, educational background, it's just... people sense it. It's entirely subjective at it's core.

Likewise with AI drumming. Drumming has been studied extensively, even within the context of academia and peer-reviewed work and all that. We know much of what makes drumming "feel" "human"--not everything, but plenty. Yet somehow, even the best AI sounds like shit.

Это пока ещё он так звучит. Он же фактически находится в зачаточном состоянии. Сейчас так быстро всё развивается. Ещё каких-нибудь 3 десятка лет назад вы могли предположить, что у вас в кармане будет лежать телефон с компьютером в одном, и вы сможете свободно общаться с человеком на другом конце света, даже не зная его языка? А теперь это обычное дело.

 

[parmalee]

This is how it sounds for now. It is actually in its infancy. Everything is developing so quickly now. Just 3 decades ago, could you imagine that you would have a phone and a computer in your pocket, and you would be able to freely communicate with a person on the other side of the world, without even knowing their language? And now it is commonplace.

I use AI stem extraction software often, for separating and isolating individual instruments from a recording for which you do not have the master tapes (or files). I've compared the results from fairly recent extractions to an extraction done less than a year ago--with the same recording--and the differences are mind blowing. AI learns exceptionally fast.

At the same time, that's a very different sort of thing from using AI to perform a task that typically demands creativity or "feeling", whatever it is that those things are. Technically, yeah, AI can--or will be able to--outperform humans at so many things. But where indefinable or indescribable attributes are required, AI will underperform. I mean, if you can't really define or describe the quality adequately, then how can AI be expected to replicate it or learn it? It will change, of course, and get better in many respects, but I don't really see AI ever replacing humans in many creative tasks.

 

[Seattle]

Это пока ещё он так звучит. Он же фактически находится в зачаточном состоянии. Сейчас так быстро всё развивается. Ещё каких-нибудь 3 десятка лет назад вы могли предположить, что у вас в кармане будет лежать телефон с компьютером в одном, и вы сможете свободно общаться с человеком на другом конце света, даже не зная его языка? А теперь это обычное дело.

Three decades ago some who could imagine such things might expect workers to not be needed by now, yet, here we are...

Farm labor from a hundred years ago wouldn't even understand some of the job titles of today.

 

[Ken Fabian]

Like "Player Piano" - (Kurt Vonnegut)?

There will be people who don't have the skills to take advantage and will be a major societal problem if they have no jobs and no incomes and no opportunities. Poverty is the great motivator for (small) crime, political extremism and revolution. Wealth and power will of course, remain the great motivator for large crime and corruption - and will always oppose the social welfare programs that reduce demand and profitability of prisons and forced labor.

 

[Seattle]

Like "Player Piano" - (Kurt Vonnegut)?

There will be people who don't have the skills to take advantage and will be a major societal problem if they have no jobs and no incomes and no opportunities. Poverty is the great motivator for (small) crime, political extremism and revolution. Wealth and power will of course, remain the great motivator for large crime and corruption - and will always oppose the social welfare programs that reduce demand and profitability of prisons and forced labor.

So wealth breeds corruption and poverty breeds crime. Let me guess, your nickname is "Sunshine"?

 

[ольга]

I use AI stem extraction software often, for separating and isolating individual instruments from a recording for which you do not have the master tapes (or files). I've compared the results from fairly recent extractions to an extraction done less than a year ago--with the same recording--and the differences are mind blowing. AI learns exceptionally fast.

At the same time, that's a very different sort of thing from using AI to perform a task that typically demands creativity or "feeling", whatever it is that those things are. Technically, yeah, AI can--or will be able to--outperform humans at so many things. But where indefinable or indescribable attributes are required, AI will underperform. I mean, if you can't really define or describe the quality adequately, then how can AI be expected to replicate it or learn it? It will change, of course, and get better in many respects, but I don't really see AI ever replacing humans in many creative tasks.

А что это за качества? Вы имеете ввиду чувства? Он не сможет их прочувствовать, как это чувствуют люди, но он сможет их имитировать, как это делает хороший актёр. Вы же смотрите спектакль в театре, и актёры там не проживают по настоящему жизнь тех героев, которых они играют.

Здесь мне видится другая проблема для человечества - деградация. Когда какие-либо функции организма не используются - они атрофируются. Если большинство задач переложить на ИИ, то человек сам даже посчитать в уме не каждый сможет. Ну и ещё смыслы. К чему стремиться, если уже и так всё есть? Счастье многие воспринимают как? Чего то нет, человек хочет это получить, наконец получает - и вот оно счастье. Для большинства счастье выглядит так. Духовность? Что о ней знают?

 

[ольга]

Three decades ago some who could imagine such things might expect workers to not be needed by now, yet, here we are...

Farm labor from a hundred years ago wouldn't even understand some of the job titles of today.

Человечество в основной своей массе всегда мечтало не работать. И оно это получит в результате. А дальше что? А дальше, как в песне: "нажми на кнопку - получишь результат, и твоя мечта осуществится. Нажми на кнопку - но что же ты не рад? Тебе больше не к чему стремиться".

 

[ольга]

Like "Player Piano" - (Kurt Vonnegut)?

There will be people who don't have the skills to take advantage and will be a major societal problem if they have no jobs and no incomes and no opportunities. Poverty is the great motivator for (small) crime, political extremism and revolution. Wealth and power will of course, remain the great motivator for large crime and corruption - and will always oppose the social welfare programs that reduce demand and profitability of prisons and forced labor.

Преступления против других имеют под собой одну основу: не любовь к ближнему. Т.е. человек плевать хотел на других. Поэтому в религии "не убий" и "не укради" ставятся на одну доску, и то, и другое - смертный грех.

 

[Ken Fabian]

So wealth breeds corruption and poverty breeds crime. Let me guess, your nickname is "Sunshine"?

The best is found between the extremes. A bell curve.

 

[Pinball1970]

Back in the day, naysayers would whine about drum machines being lifeless and all that (which was kinda the point in many instances, but that's another matter).

I was that naysayer.
I went to Simmonds demonstration in Manchester mid 80s, I had to be dragged there by my bassist.
I sat through it and hated them a lot more after the session.
First issue, the sound, hated it.
The play, the demo guy was shit which did not help but there was zero dynamics, it was either silent or volume 11.
"Filling in" you could do a setting on the bass drum where it doubled what you play and even worse not count an out of time play!
In the QA I asked him if there was a setting where the kit played while you went to the pub. It did not go down well, I was snarky probably because he said the snare was not suitable for double strokes. It's not a snare then is it!
The cymbals sounded "really" like real cymbals. Right, they actually did not AND they looked like my practice pad on stands.
Apologies I thought I was over it and could discuss without getting upset but clearly not.

 

[ольга]

I was that naysayer.
I went to Simmonds demonstration in Manchester mid 80s, I had to be dragged there by my bassist.
I sat through it and hated them a lot more after the session.
First issue, the sound, hated it.
The play, the demo guy was shit which did not help but there was zero dynamics, it was either silent or volume 11.
"Filling in" you could do a setting on the bass drum where it doubled what you play and even worse not count an out of time play!
In the QA I asked him if there was a setting where the kit played while you went to the pub. It did not go down well, I was snarky probably because he said the snare was not suitable for double strokes. It's not a snare then is it!
The cymbals sounded "really" like real cymbals. Right, they actually did not AND they looked like my practice pad on stands.
Apologies I thought I was over it and could discuss without getting upset but clearly not.

За 40 лет могло многое измениться. Не хотите послушать, как звучит ИИ сейчас?