What will the economy look like when robots take over most of the jobs as a result of scientific and technological progress?

Pinball1970 said:
Will it sound like my 26 inch Ludwig bass drum? Zildjian cymbals?
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Я не знаю. Я не слышала, как звучит ваш барабан и тарелки. Но думаю, что он сможет в точности их скопировать.

Могу подкинуть идею. Можно посмотреть какие чувства и эмоции вызывают те или иные звуки, и сделать штуковину "наоборот", которая будет переводить эмоции и чувства в звуки. Классная игрушка получится: хочешь что то сказать своей девушке, берёшь и собираешь ей свою симфонию с помощью ИИ. Или когда на кого-нибудь злишься: врубил ему это в музыке, и он сразу всё прочувствует.
 
Pinball1970 said:
I was that naysayer.
I went to Simmonds demonstration in Manchester mid 80s, I had to be dragged there by my bassist.
I sat through it and hated them a lot more after the session.
First issue, the sound, hated it.
The play, the demo guy was shit which did not help but there was zero dynamics, it was either silent or volume 11.
"Filling in" you could do a setting on the bass drum where it doubled what you play and even worse not count an out of time play!
In the QA I asked him if there was a setting where the kit played while you went to the pub. It did not go down well, I was snarky probably because he said the snare was not suitable for double strokes. It's not a snare then is it!
The cymbals sounded "really" like real cymbals. Right, they actually did not AND they looked like my practice pad on stands.
Apologies I thought I was over it and could discuss without getting upset but clearly not.
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The issue was that people were wanting them and expecting them to sound like drums, when they were only ever really going to sound like drums--when you mistake the simulacrum for the thing itself, you're either getting into uncanny valley territory or you're setting yourself up for disappointment. ALso keep in mind, those Simmons samples IIRC were just 8 bit (albeit μ-law encoded, giving it more of an exponential representation, more in accordance with our perception of pitch and amplitude, so kinda more like 10 or 12 bit), so they were gonna sound crap regardless.

When you get past expecting them to sound just like actual drums and get into the design aspects, that's where the real beauty lies. I've always been way more into drum synthesis, via subtractive means, rather than sampling or modeling, and that required a lot more creativity and ingenuity. There was an engineer at Boss/Roland in the late '70s (drawing a blank on his name at the moment) who came up with the most ingenious means for approximating snare, hats/cymbals, cowbells and the like. Take the cowbell, for instance: crudely, you use a couple of carefully selected square wave frequencies, XOR them, and run it through a very short RC envelope. And this was in the days of analog oscilloscopes! Working from an accurate visual representation of an effectively 40-50ms piece of sound was less viable.

Then there's the whole simulating the feel of an actual drum pad or cymbal or whatever. But I guess this is somewhat off-topic. Still, there's some fascinating history there!

Edit: Just to clarify, the u-law encoding pertains to amplitude in this instance, and not pitch.

Edit 2: OK, obviously the u-law encoding pertained only to amplitude, because with pitch being a function of time, such encoding would require non-linear clocking. Clocking is always linear, right? I mean, is there any sort of clocking that involves varying the frequency in the prescribed fashion that such would require?
 
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ольга said:
Я не знаю. Я не слышала, как звучит ваш барабан и тарелки. Но думаю, что он сможет в точности их скопировать.
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For what purpose? to sound like 1970s Ludwig?
 
ольга said:
Я не знаю. Я не слышала, как звучит ваш барабан и тарелки. Но думаю, что он сможет в точности их скопировать.

Могу подкинуть идею. Можно посмотреть какие чувства и эмоции вызывают те или иные звуки, и сделать штуковину "наоборот", которая будет переводить эмоции и чувства в звуки. Классная игрушка получится: хочешь что то сказать своей девушке, берёшь и собираешь ей свою симфонию с помощью ИИ. Или когда на кого-нибудь злишься: врубил ему это в музыке, и он сразу всё прочувствует.
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I understand to an extent with Keys say, especially if you are playing a lot of different music in one gig. Not everyone can be like Rick Wakeman, just rock up to the gig and play your 8 key boards, you have to be practical.

With drums there is feel as well as how they look and sound.

I play guitar and there is nothing that looks like or sounds like certain guitars. Gibson, fender and they look beautiful.

Your Ai guy could program this and make you sound like Hendrix, it has no stings and is light as a feather.

Would you want to play Hendrix on it though?

1741268414008.png
 
ольга said:
Я не знаю. Я не слышала, как звучит ваш барабан и тарелки. Но думаю, что он сможет в точности их скопировать.

Могу подкинуть идею. Можно посмотреть какие чувства и эмоции вызывают те или иные звуки, и сделать штуковину "наоборот", которая будет переводить эмоции и чувства в звуки. Классная игрушка получится: хочешь что то сказать своей девушке, берёшь и собираешь ей свою симфонию с помощью ИИ. Или когда на кого-нибудь злишься: врубил ему это в музыке, и он сразу всё прочувствует.
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Look at him!

1741268496008.png
 
parmalee said:
The issue was that people were wanting them and expecting them to sound like drums, when they were only ever really going to sound like drums--when you mistake the simulacrum for the thing itself, you're either getting into uncanny valley territory or you're setting yourself up for disappointment. ALso keep in mind, those Simmons samples IIRC were just 8 bit (albeit μ-law encoded, giving it more of an exponential representation, more in accordance with our perception of pitch and amplitude, so kinda more like 10 or 12 bit), so they were gonna sound crap regardless.

When you get past expecting them to sound just like actual drums and get into the design aspects, that's where the real beauty lies. I've always been way more into drum synthesis, via subtractive means, rather than sampling or modeling, and that required a lot more creativity and ingenuity. There was an engineer at Boss/Roland in the late '70s (drawing a blank on his name at the moment) who came up with the most ingenious means for approximating snare, hats/cymbals, cowbells and the like. Take the cowbell, for instance: crudely, you use a couple of carefully selected square wave frequencies, XOR them, and run it through a very short RC envelope. And this was in the days of analog oscilloscopes! Working from an accurate visual representation of an effectively 40-50ms piece of sound was less viable.

Then there's the whole simulating the feel of an actual drum pad or cymbal or whatever. But I guess this is somewhat off-topic. Still, there's some fascinating history there!

Edit: Just to clarify, the u-law encoding pertains to amplitude in this instance, and not pitch.
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I liked the transition of some acoustic transitions to electric than effects. Guitar, Wah, Feedback, distortion where would rock be without that? The Moog, brilliant if played well.

What guys like Jon Lord did with the Hammond.

Drums seemed to be dragged along because everything else was going that way in the late 70s into the 80s.


Some sounds that sounded nothing like drums kind of worked (like Human league) and I really like some elctro music. All of a sudden 1982 ish you could not pick out an acoustic set, even film themes, TV series.

Karfwerk “autobahn” was as good as it got – 1975. After they seemed a bit synthy and a bit drum.

I played an E kit just after Covid and it was not a cheap one, £900 plus. I dont think the guy knew what he was doing but he let me have a go.

I tried some grace note stuff on the snare and it picked up about 50%, nothing if I played quiet. I asked him and he said he would have to change the settings to pick that up.

Paul Wellers 1995 Album Stanley Rd is when I heard drums really sound like a set being played. I think I stopped watching TOTPs in 1983 and did not start again till OASIS!
 
Pinball1970 said:
I liked the transition of some acoustic transitions to electric than effects. Guitar, Wah, Feedback, distortion where would rock be without that? The Moog, brilliant if played well.

What guys like Jon Lord did with the Hammond.
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Yeah, I think when people approach the effected or electronic thing as a replacement for the actual thing is where people get into trouble. It's simply a completely different thing. Period. If you want a piano sound play an actual piano.

I've worked with all sorts of instruments, but my real passion is for instruments that lie somewhere in between: tonewheel organs (but also pre-ic combo organs, where temperature, leaky caps, all sorts of things will affect the sound in unpredictable fashion), effected harmoniums, that sort of thing--basically, electro-acoustic and electro-mechanical instruments.
-----

Further off topic, but someone must know this re: my second edit in the post above:


Edit 2: OK, obviously the u-law encoding pertained only to amplitude, because with pitch being a function of time, such encoding would require non-linear clocking. Clocking is always linear, right? I mean, is there any sort of clocking that involves varying the frequency in the prescribed fashion that such would require?
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I guess, in a sense, pulse density modulation is somewhat like this--but it's still working with conventional clocking operating in a linear fashion.
 
Pinball1970 said:
I played an E kit just after Covid and it was not a cheap one, £900 plus. I dont think the guy knew what he was doing but he let me have a go.
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Think about how much that crap cost in the '80s! Most such things were at least a couple thousand, which would likely be over 10 thousand today. By and large--though there are some exceptions--I don't generally like most music that requires such insanely expensive tools. It's not necessarily that the tools themselves are making the music bad (to my ears), it's more that people who make a lot of money, and therefore have a lot of money to spend on such things, typically don't make music that I like.
 
ольга said:
The majority of humanity has always dreamed of not working. And it will get it as a result.
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I don't think that's true. Much of society right now could make do on the money made from only four days a week. The promised four-day work week is here and available. It just depend on what you mean by 'make do'.

Rather than using that freedom for leisure, invariably they choose to work the fifth day, and the extra money to ensure they have the latest iPhone, the largest flat-screen TV and an extra car in the driveway and a tropical vacation.

When given the opportunity to work less, people always choose instead to keep working the same amount and make more money because, ultimately, what they want is to keep up with the Jones'.
 
DaveC426913 said:
I don't think that's true. Much of society right now could make do on the money made from only four days a week. The promised four-day work week is here and available. It just depend on what you mean by 'make do'.

Rather than using that freedom for leisure, invariably they choose to work the fifth day, and the extra money to ensure they have the latest iPhone, the largest flat-screen TV and an extra car in the driveway and a tropical vacation.

When given the opportunity to work less, people always choose instead to keep working the same amount and make more money because, ultimately, what they want is to keep up with the Jones'.
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А что они (люди) захотят, когда всё это станет бесплатным? Когда не будет денег? Когда не нужно будет соревноваться с другими, чтобы доказать свою значимость для общества? Когда мы перестанем быть обезьянами, соревнующимися друг с другом за право занять место повыше в иерархии стаи?
 
ольга said:
What will they (people) want when all this becomes free? When there is no money? When there is no need to compete with others to prove their importance to society? When we stop being monkeys competing with each other for the right to take a higher place in the hierarchy of the pack?
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I'm not sure that will happen except in science fiction stories.

Why would any amenities become free? Even if we don't have to pay for them out of our own wallets, we still pay for them through civic, provincial and federal taxes.

We don't compete for its own sake. We just find ourselves in competition because we are curious creatures, with a voracious appetite for new things - and those new things cost money.

Consider some hypothetical next new technology - brain chips or in-home networked telescopy or anti-aging treatments. I don't need those things, but I want them. At some point, as more and more people have these amenities, they become the standard. Even today, we go into the office and talk about the latest streaming show at the water cooler. I don't need streaming services but I will find myself increasingly out-of-touch and missing out. It's surprisingly easy for people to fall behind the standard. I have several friends and family that don't sign up for the latest amenities and they are increasingly irrelevant and isolated. We are social creatures.
 
DaveC426913 said:
I'm not sure that will happen except in science fiction stories.

Why would any amenities become free? Even if we don't have to pay for them out of our own wallets, we still pay for them through civic, provincial and federal taxes.

We don't compete for its own sake. We just find ourselves in competition because we are curious creatures, with a voracious appetite for new things - and those new things cost money.

Consider some hypothetical next new technology - brain chips or in-home networked telescopy or anti-aging treatments. I don't need those things, but I want them. At some point, as more and more people have these amenities, they become the standard. Even today, we go into the office and talk about the latest streaming show at the water cooler. I don't need streaming services but I will find myself increasingly out-of-touch and missing out. It's surprisingly easy for people to fall behind the standard. I have several friends and family that don't sign up for the latest amenities and they are increasingly irrelevant and isolated. We are social creatures.
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Из чего складывается стоимость товаров и услуг? Из зарплаты, стоимости сырья, налогов, логистики, прибыли, и пр. Если уберём зарплату(потому что роботам она не нужна), логистику(потому что перевозить будут роботы), стоимость сырья(потому что добывать его будут роботы), отменить налоги - то что у нас останется? Только прибыль. Как её расчитать при таких условиях? И зачем она будет нужна, если и так всё будет доступно практически бесплатно?
 
ольга said:
What makes up the cost of goods and services? Salaries, cost of raw materials, taxes, logistics, profit, etc. If we remove salaries (because robots don't need them), logistics (because robots will transport them), cost of raw materials (because robots will mine them), and cancel taxes, what will we have left? Only profit.
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I do not think this is a realistic assessment. Making robots build stuff doesn't make it free. There's innumerable costs in there. Materials, raw resources, manufacturing space, storage, accounting, oversight, marketing, communications, R&D, shipping, making and acquiring new equipment (including robots) etc.

Or a specific example: why do you think robots driving transport vehicles makes all of logistics - or all the costs associated with cargo transport - just vanish?
 
DaveC426913 said:
I do not think this is a realistic assessment. Making robots build stuff doesn't make it free. There's innumerable costs in there. Materials, raw resources, manufacturing space, storage, accounting, oversight, marketing, communications, R&D, shipping, making and acquiring new equipment (including robots) etc.

Or a specific example: why do you think robots driving transport vehicles makes all of logistics - or all the costs associated with cargo transport - just vanish?
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Ну попробуйте проследить цепочку любого производства, и вы увидите, что в конечном итоге себестоимость будет складываться из трудозатрат, прибыли и налогов. Даже себестоимость сырья, тоже складывается из этого. Уберите трудозатраты, и получите только налоги и прибыль. Т.е. "воздух". Я же не говорю, что это всё произойдёт прямо сейчас. Нет, пусть это будет через 100 или 200 лет, но всё равно к этому придут. А вы бы не хотели чтобы всё было бесплатным?
 
ольга said:
Нашла в ВК видео. Хорошо играет. Только я не специалист в такой музыке. Мне ближе.
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ольга said:
Нашла в ВК видео. Хорошо играет. Только я не специалист в такой музыке. Мне ближе классическая.
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You have not heard of Jon Lord, Kraftwerk, Ian Paice or ........ Hendrix?

Paice and Lord were/are in Deep Purple, the best musicians on the planet bar none as a collective band from 1969-1973.

Kraftwerk were an innovative electro band in the 1970s, they had a hit in the 80s.
 
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