Does anyone think America can "take more pain" than China?
I see the EU wants China to "negotiate"
Does that mean they have caved or are they waiting to see if China stands up to America full square before making up their own minds?
Are they putting off the hour when they have to favour one side over the other?
It means that they are being pragmatic, and see that escalating in the manner of simply applying reciprocal tariffs is only going to continue the downward cycle. Negotiation at least enables both sides to come to the table and lay out actual intentions. What is Trump actually looking for, or are tariffs the goal in and of themselves, to generate revenue for the government? If so, there is little that China can do, and they will react as they see fit. But if Trump is applying tariffs so as to achieve something else, then what is that thing? Get him to actually set it out and maybe China can come up with something that is palatable for both sides.
The EU are going to try to negotiate first, I'm sure, but will then apply targeted tariffs. The question, though, is what does the US sell that the EU actually wants? While it would have been military hardware - especially if NATO countries are upping their annual spending - Trump's posturing has pretty much shredded the confidence that EU members would have in US equipment, and I'm sure they'll instead be looking to buy even less from the US on that front. Again, as a result solely of Trump's posturing. The things that the Secretary of Commerce has mentioned are effectively non-starters for the EU: beef, chicken, cars etc. The EU has standards, and the US products simply don't meet them. The US could, if they so wished, raise their own standards to meet the EU's criteria, and if they could do that and produce more cheaply then there'd be no problem, I'm sure. There might then be some protective tariffs, but at least that's then a case of both sides producing what is needed, and negotiations would be meaningful.
And the same is true for China: what does the US actually sell that they want? Does the US really want more Chinese investment in the US???
Trump is just a numpty, though. I honestly think the tariffs
are the end goal. Yes, he says he wants manufacturing back in the US, he wants to end dependence on other countries, but that would then reduce the tariff income and ultimately defeat the level of his tariff revenue. Plus all the other detriments of tariffs (lack of innovation, laziness, inefficiency, higher prices, etc). I just don't see that Trump really has any actual plan, other than to raise revenue so that he can continue his tax-cuts (that disproportionately aid the wealthy).
Interesting times.
