Tariffs - the most beautiful word in the dictionary

Sarkus said:
So, just to ensure that the US businesses have confidence as to what the status is... Trump has put a 90-day pause on some of the reciprocal tariffs.

My guess is that he has insiders who have bought the dip, and now's the time to let them bounce back up a bit. But for those businesses hoping for some confidence in what the future might hold... nah.
Of course, with 75 countries (so he says) wanting to "negotiate", he's now on the lookout for anything that he can spin as validation. "Oh, look, the EU is going to buy an extra cow! Told you that my approach would work!"

And at the same time, in response to the 84% tariffs by China on US goods, Trump has upped the tariff on Chinese imports to a mere 125%. So I hope you didn't want that Lenovo laptop! Expect China to add another 20% to their tariffs on US goods.
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Южная Корея вам в помощь. Их товары гораздо качественней китайских. Китай тоже может иногда делать что то неплохо, но качественное китайское не намного дешевле европейского, и не дешевле южнокорейского.
 
Sarkus said:
So, just to ensure that the US businesses have confidence as to what the status is... Trump has put a 90-day pause on some of the reciprocal tariffs.

My guess is that he has insiders who have bought the dip, and now's the time to let them bounce back up a bit.
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Also, he paused the tariffs on Mexico and Canada to reward them for sending illicit fentanyl across the border. Apparently. Makes perfect sense.
 
ольга said:
Нефть тоже дешевеет. Цена ниже 50$ за барелль, прекратит все военные действия уже к осени. Хорошая "многоходовка".
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Oil is also getting cheaper. The price is below $50 per barrel, will stop all hostilities by the autumn. It's a good "multiple".

Um
NO
OPEC basket is $63.40 (as I type)

..............................................................................
Imagine a world where people ain't hostile.................................
 
sculptor said:
Oil is also getting cheaper. The price is below $50 per barrel, will stop all hostilities by the autumn. It's a good "multiple".

Um
NO
OPEC basket is $63.40 (as I type)

..............................................................................
Imagine a world where people ain't hostile.................................
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Это после того, как Трамп "пошёл на попятную", она снова подорожала. А до этого падала до 58$ за марку Брент, и ещё ниже за российскую Юралс.
 
sculptor said:
Oil is also getting cheaper. The price is below $50 per barrel, will stop all hostilities by the autumn. It's a good "multiple".

Um
NO
OPEC basket is $63.40 (as I type)

..............................................................................
Imagine a world where people ain't hostile.................................
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The fall in the oil price is a consequence of the expected economic damage, to the USA and elsewhere, from Trump’s tariff policy. Only a real fool would think it a good plan to bring about a recession just in order to bring down the price of oil.
 
sculptor said:
Oil is also getting cheaper. The price is below $50 per barrel, will stop all hostilities by the autumn. It's a good "multiple".
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People having their savings destroyed, leaving them unable to buy cars, will result in lower oil prices.

That is not, however, a good thing. (Unless you're rich of course.)
 
exchemist said:
The fall in the oil price is a consequence of the expected economic damage, to the USA and elsewhere, from Trump’s tariff policy. Only a real fool would think it a good plan to bring about a recession just in order to bring down the price of oil.
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IF we are headed into a global recession, then going long on oil futures would be foolish.
Who knows?
as/re the stock market
It has been said that the stock market has accurately predicted fifteen of the last ten recessions.
 
exchemist said:
The fall in the oil price is a consequence of the expected economic damage, to the USA and elsewhere, from Trump’s tariff policy. Only a real fool would think it a good plan to bring about a recession just in order to bring down the price of oil.
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Падение цен на нефть ослабит экономику России и Ирана. Можно было бы считать это случайным побочным эффектом, но нет - ОПЕК увеличивает добычу в несколько раз, не смотря на падающий спрос.
 
sculptor said:
IF we are headed into a global recession, then going long on oil futures would be foolish.
Who knows?
as/re the stock market
It has been said that the stock market has accurately predicted fifteen of the last ten recessions.
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I sold the last of my late wife's Shell shares yesterday.

I think a worldwide economic slowdown, and a recession in the USA, are quite likely, thanks to Trump. Energy and oil-derived product demand would drop, as would demand for gas, which underpins most of Shell's business these days. Since renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuel, my guess is the fossil fuel demand would be hit first, amplifying the effect.

The silver lining to all this is that Trump and the Trumpies are being exposed as economically incompetent, in a way that Main Street can see very plainly. So there is hope they may get thrown out before they can complete their soft coup.
 
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(Q) said:
Unfortunately, it may be a hard coup is required to get them out.
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Presumably though, a lot hinges on the Mid-term elections. They may now have an uphill struggle to bend the electoral system enough to prevent loss of control of Congress. If Congress ceases to be supine, that makes things a lot harder for the Trumpies, doesn't it?
 
exchemist said:
Presumably though, a lot hinges on the Mid-term elections. They may now have an uphill struggle to bend the electoral system enough to prevent loss of control of Congress. If Congress ceases to be supine, that makes things a lot harder for the Trumpies, doesn't it?
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They're making considerable progress in that regard:
The US House approved a bill on Thursday that would require people to prove they are citizens when they register to vote, which opponents claim could disenfranchise millions of Americans.

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the Save Act, which was approved on a 220-208 vote, is aimed at eliminating rare instances of noncitizens voting in US elections based on the false belief that large numbers of noncitizens are voting.
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www.theguardian.com

US House passes bill requiring people to prove citizenship in order to vote

Supporters say bill is aimed at preventing noncitizens from voting in US elections, but critics say it’s voter suppression
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This, of course, will also adversely affect those who changed their names in marriage.
 
parmalee said:
They're making considerable progress in that regard:

www.theguardian.com

US House passes bill requiring people to prove citizenship in order to vote

Supporters say bill is aimed at preventing noncitizens from voting in US elections, but critics say it’s voter suppression
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This, of course, will also adversely affect those who changed their names in marriage.
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Yes I had seen something about this. The Democrats will need to mount a major effort to help people get the necessary paperwork, at least in the marginal constituencies. That must be possible, when you look at all the money sloshing around in the American political system.
 
exchemist said:
Presumably though, a lot hinges on the Mid-term elections. They may now have an uphill struggle to bend the electoral system enough to prevent loss of control of Congress. If Congress ceases to be supine, that makes things a lot harder for the Trumpies, doesn't it?
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Not sure about that, Republicans purged millions of legal votes in the last election so that Trump could win. I don't see how this is going to change, ever.
 
exchemist said:
The Democrats will need to mount a major effort to help people get the necessary paperwork, at least in the marginal constituencies. That must be possible . . .
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Why do you say that? All DOGE needs to do is fire all the people who provide that paperwork in predominantly democratic areas. All in the name of saving money of course. DOGE has already fired the people in the NHTSA responsible for regulating Tesla.
 
billvon said:
Why do you say that? All DOGE needs to do is fire all the people who provide that paperwork in predominantly democratic areas. All in the name of saving money of course. DOGE has already fired the people in the NHTSA responsible for regulating Tesla.
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They should start now then.
 
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