Tariffs - the most beautiful word in the dictionary

S

Sarkus

Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe
Valued Senior Member
So, deadline looming (1st Feb) and the (quite literally?) billion dollar question is:
Will Trump go through with applying 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico?
Or will he find a (what he or his cronies believe is) a face-saving reqon not to apply them?

"Oh, Canada/Mexico have agreed to reduce the drugs/people flowing into our great country...."

If he doesn't apply them, however, and doesn't have a very good reason not to apply them, he will look weak, and his tariff threats will lose any potency they might currently have.

So, what are the odds that he'll apply them? 50:50?


And, if he does, let's use this thread to track the fallout. :)
 
I saw an interview with the Mexican president who said Trump was most likely bluffing but still had a plan if he wasn't.

If he does, most red states full of maga morons will feel the brunt the hardest, hence maga leaders from those states are capitulating but are panicking as well.
 
Sarkus said:
So, deadline looming (1st Feb) and the (quite literally?) billion dollar question is:
Will Trump go through with applying 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico?
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And now he is threatening 100% tariffs! This is like a soap opera.

"We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs. They can go find another sucker Nation. There is no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs, and goodbye to America!”
 
Seems more likely Trump's blame and punish approach will push other nations to alternatives to trading with the US or transactions based in US dollars than prevent it. It is not like Canada or Mexico are enemies of the US or were ever able to dictate the terms of NAFTA. At least not enemies yet.

None of his inner circle are going to be inclined to argue with Trump's over-simplistic and erroneous certainties, that being a sure way to be expelled from his inner circle.
 
Ken Fabian said:
Seems more likely Trump's blame and punish approach will push other nations to alternatives to trading with the US or transactions based in US dollars than prevent it. It is not like Canada or Mexico are enemies of the US or were ever able to dictate the terms of NAFTA. At least not enemies yet.

None of his inner circle are going to be inclined to argue with Trump's over-simplistic and erroneous certainties, that being a sure way to be expelled from his inner circle.
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What is essential is coordinated pushback to call Truump's bluff. Individual nations may find it hard to resist the blackmail but if they all do, the loss will be the USA's.
 
exchemist said:
What is essential is coordinated pushback to call Truump's bluff. Individual nations may find it hard to resist the blackmail but if they all do, the loss will be the USA's.
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The loss will be everyone's. Wide-spread general use of tariffs isn't going to help anyone.
 
It seems that Trump is using the threat of tariffs a tad too often and too liberally.
BRICS anyone?
 
Trump is Trump. He can turn even a good idea into a bad one. It seems like a negotiating ploy until he overdoes it. He is friendly toward Bitcoin but starts to screw it all up with his Trump and Melania coins, etc. He wants to cut the government size but he randomly offers resignation packages to everyone, including departments where he might actually want those people.
 
Well, he's said there's nothing the counties can do to avoid the tariffs going in to affect tomorrow/Saturday, so welcome to the new trade war. Noone will benefit, but some countries will fare better than others.
The US economy will suffer, the FED, assuming it retains any semblance of independence, will slow down any interest rate reductions and inflation might well go up somewhat. Of course, it'll be the less well-off that suffer the most.
And Trump will crow about how much money his tariffs are taking in ... from his own population ... and then he'll give his billionaire friends a huge tax cut. Gotta love it.
 
Seattle said:
He wants to cut the government size but he randomly offers resignation packages to everyone, including departments where he might actually want those people.
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I've seen people warn federal employees to be very careful before accepting that resignation offer... because it's currently only equivalent of a verbal offer, not coming from the correct place, and lacking significant detail. Plus Trump has a history of screwing over contractors in that way. Get it in writing, understand what you're giving up (possible pensions etc), and know that you're dealing with the most untrustworthy President in history.

Plus, isn't there an issue in that Congress haven't actually approved any budget for the resignation packages?
 
Sarkus said:
Well, he's said there's nothing the counties can do to avoid the tariffs going in to affect tomorrow/Saturday, so welcome to the new trade war. Noone will benefit, but some countries will fare better than others.
The US economy will suffer, the FED, assuming it retains any semblance of independence, will slow down any interest rate reductions and inflation might well go up somewhat. Of course, it'll be the less well-off that suffer the most.
And Trump will crow about how much money his tariffs are taking in ... from his own population ... and then he'll give his billionaire friends a huge tax cut. Gotta love it.
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If there is a proper trade war (-and if he backs down he loses I think) which countries might "loose least" and so "win" ?

America is a small country in the world at large and Trump personally is seen unfavourably in all but a few countries (India?,China?)
 
Sarkus said:
I've seen people warn federal employees to be very careful before accepting that resignation offer... because it's currently only equivalent of a verbal offer, not coming from the correct place, and lacking significant detail. Plus Trump has a history of screwing over contractors in that way. Get it in writing, understand what you're giving up (possible pensions etc), and know that you're dealing with the most untrustworthy President in history.

Plus, isn't there an issue in that Congress haven't actually approved any budget for the resignation packages?
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The new budget for everything is in March. The points you bring up are minutia (but largely true). The government has too much debt. Government is bloated and therefore, like a business or our personal finances, it needs to be responsive and have checks and balances.

Most jobs lay off people when business slows down. When you don't do a good job, you might be laid off. The government should be no different. This shouldn't even be a partisan issue. However, it should be targeted.
 
Seattle said:
The loss will be everyone's. Wide-spread general use of tariffs isn't going to help anyone.
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That's true enough. I expressed myself badly. What I meant was that if everyone resists the pressure, it will hit not only his chosen victim nations, but also hit the US badly enough to give Trump second thoughts. He would like to divide and rule. He must not be allowed to.
 
Seattle said:
The new budget for everything is in March. The points you bring up are minutia (but largely true). The government has too much debt. Government is bloated and therefore, like a business or our personal finances, it needs to be responsive and have checks and balances.

Most jobs lay off people when business slows down. When you don't do a good job, you might be laid off. The government should be no different. This shouldn't even be a partisan issue. However, it should be targeted.
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I've seen a warning, from a Senator I think, that Trump has no authority to make the severance offer that he has. The argument is that there is a real risk that by accepting it, the employee puts his or her hand up as wanting to leave, thereby making dismissal inevitable, but that the terms supposedly offered will be struck down by Congress or the courts. So they they are out, but without the promised compensation.
 
exchemist said:
I've seen a warning, from a Senator I think, that Trump has no authority to make the severance offer that he has. The argument is that there is a real risk that by accepting it, the employee puts his or her hand up as wanting to leave, thereby making dismissal inevitable, but that the terms supposedly offered will be struck down by Congress or the courts. So they they are out, but without the promised compensation.
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Do the workers affected have trades union representation?

If so they may well be advised to follow their advice.(and also act as a bloc rather than as individual targets)
 
Tariffs rule!

One has to wonder why so many educated folks are actually so uneducated.

Don't ask me to school you.

You have lots of search engine opportunities to make up for your deficit.
 
geordief said:
Do the workers affected have trades union representation?

If so they may well be advised to follow their advice.(and also act as a bloc rather than as individual targets)
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I don't know to what extent the people affected are unionised but I'm sure they will - now - be taking advice before responding.
 
Mr. G said:
Tariffs rule!

One has to wonder why so many educated folks are actually so uneducated.
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Imsc, you have claimed to be one of those 'educated folks'
Mr. G said:
Don't ask me to school you.
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You mean, don't ask to explain your two word claim? Not to worry, this forum gets plenty of folks making claims who then wonder off with no explanations. They're usually cranks, crackpots and loons.
Mr. G said:
You have lots of search engine opportunities to make up for your deficit.
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As do you, ya know, to explain your claim. Here's what I do know. Tariffs are neither universally good nor bad. Their effectiveness depends on implementation context, objectives, and global responses. When used strategically to counter unfair practices, protect national security, or nurture budding industries they can be beneficial. However, broad, indiscriminate tariffs like the ones Trump just issued, risk harming consumers, provoking retaliation, and reducing economic efficiency. That is, if you believe his bullshit about fentanyl.
 
25% retaliatory tariffs by Canada on c.$US 100bn of imports from the US. $30bn will come into force on Tuesday, the rest arfter 21 days so as to give firms time to adjust / source from elsewhere etc.

And so it begins.
 
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