Why is oil price dropping?
- Thread starter Saint
- Start date
The higher price of oil has made more extraction techniques economically viable. They began producing last year. Additional supply = lower cost. Also, the sluggish economy and efficiency requirements have kept demand flat for the past few years. Flat demand = no upward pressure on prices.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
If you read the papers you should know it is because no agreement to cut production was reached by OPEC at their last meeting. In particular, the Saudis, OPEC's traditional "swing producer" declined to cut production. Now, we can all ask ourselves why this was the outcome. Most analysts attribute it to a wish to squeeze the developing shale oil and gas sector, whose costs only make production economic at relatively high crude prices.
I suppose it is possible that the USA might have somehow persuaded the Saudis that wrecking the US shale oil & gas industry is a good idea. What do you think?
The prices went down just before the American elections so I'd think there was a very certain political meaning behind it. The prices will return to over 100.00 a barrel In January or there abouts.
Well that is your belief, but as has been previously pointed out to you, your belief isn't consistent with the evidence. Given oil is currently selling for less than $66 per barrel and January is only a few weeks away you need a miracle.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
…or a serious war involving a major oil producer………... [gulp]…………..
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
And by what mechanism would that be achieved, in your view?
Neither political party is organized or competent enough to pull that off.
I'd disagree. Just think about it, just before the elections the prices dropped not during the summer or last spring but they waited until the elections. I'd think the Republican party got some help and the Democratic party got little.
As we all know there are collaborations between countries and pacts in which countries do help other countries when possible. I would think that it isn't that far off to think that this "manipulation" can be done. The stock brokers can do allot as well in making prices artificially rise and fall to make them billions of dollars. It is just my feeling that gas prices won;'t stay low for long for the real price of gas shouldn't be anywhere near what it is to produce, ship and sell it. By early next year it will go up, that's my opinion.
I'm saying that it will go back up again early next year if not January then February or March for sure. Again this is my belief and I've nothing to prove what I'm saying but only that greedy people within the oil businesses will alter the prices as they already have when they went down. There was no call for prices to drop but they did and very fast if you recall just before the American elections.
Your information is false. Oil prices peaked in June and have been falling ever since. Brent Crude was:
$115 on June 15,
$104 on July 15,
$101 on Aug 15,
$96 on Sept 15,
$84 on Oct 15,
$85 on Nov 3 (day before the election)
$78 on Nov 14,
$71 on Dec 1,
$66 on Dec 8
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D
The large drop that happened after the election was clearly due to the results of the OPEC meeting on Nov 27.
You're just fantasizing vaguely. There is a concrete reason for the recent drop and you're just guessing that it could be possible that it was manipulated.
[Edit: sorry, my data got messed up - it was partially interpreted as math when I didn't want it to be. Fixed now.]
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
That means you must think the Saudis have agreed with this with the Obama administration, right? Because only the Obama administration, presumably, would see a low oil price as an electoral advantage, which is what you are saying is behind this alleged manipulation. Correct?
The oil companies of course hate it - just look at the effect on their share price and the disruption to their investment strategies. It seems rather implausible to think it is them, does it not? So your remark about "greedy people within the oil businesses" seems to be a bit off-target, wouldn't you say?
Now, I admit it did cross my mind to wonder whether the Saudis have agreed with the US to give Putin a bloody nose, just for a few months, to show him the rest of the world has him by the balls, rather than vice-versa. That would have a certain strategic elegance. But that has nothing to do with party politics or ridiculously self-destructive machinations by oil companies, as you are alleging.
Factually incorrect.
Surely if oil prices drop then the democrats stand to benefit more. "See? All of our bailouts and tax breaks and energy efficiency programs WORKED! And the Republicans were claiming Obama's policies would make gas $8 a gallon. Fools."
Why would Republicans do that to themselves, even of they could?
Actually, you said much more than that. You said oil prices were manipulated for domestic political reasons and US elections. A quick examination of historical data quickly disproves that notion as has been previously proven. And you are now moving from January to sometime early next year.
Prices rise and fall based on that old supply and demand curve thingy. The facts are, the US has created a huge number of productive wellheads that are now pumping oil and more wells are being brought one line with each passing day. Even if oil companies stopped drilling wells today, more and more oil would be brought to market for at least a year. If the US and Iran should come to some agreement with respect to Iran's nuclear program in the coming months and removes sanctions on the Iranian state and OPEC retains its current production, the world will be awash in oil. And we haven't even discussed the economic slow down in developing economies like China which is reducing the demand for oil.
I don't see oil prices rising before June or July of next year at the earliest, and even then any price increase will likely be moderate and from a much lower base. I think we could well see $40 - $50/barrel oil before we hit rock bottom.
I'll still say January for increases to begin but thinking that it may take awhile to get them back up to where they were in September of this year.
I am still saying that prices can be manipulated by those in the stock markets by artificially pushing prices up or down according to what they want them to do and if don't think so you are sadly misinformed how stockbrokers work.
Do you recall a few years ago the news about certain things would artificially make gas prices rise? I remember once when they said that because of ONE refinery being shut down for maintenance prices increased over 25 cents per gallon. There were other things as well like when Saddam burned all of those oil wells prices again were inflated for no reason. It happens now and then but that's how they artificially do it.
They are the owners of the oil companies or affiliated moreso with them. I also stated the stockbrokers were also able to artificially move gas prices with artificial maneuvers like saying that Saddam set ablaze the oil wells in Kuwait and then prices went up then if you recall.
So why would they do something that would likely harm them?
Except that Saddam actually _did_ set the oil wells on fire.
Republicans are more so affiliated with oil companies than Democrats as they own many of them. Greedy people are just that, they can bring prices down quite allot and still make a profit. Did you see the price of gas in Venezuela? It is about 15 cents US and they are making a profit with that price, how can they do it but only a few others can? Why is it that the prices of oil can't be at the levels they were in the 1960's for they were making profits then with those prices? It is just a greedy bunch of oil tycoons that want as much as they can extract from people for their own interests. Ever see a hospital built sponsored by any oil company or food project for the poor?