perplexity said:
It is easy enough to imagine that the monkeys with the typewriters would eventually write the works of Shakespeare, but how exactly do you hope to calculate the probability?
Good grief, that doesn't sound difficult at all.
Assume that we don't care about punctuation, spacing, capitalization, or interspersed numerals. The math is only slightly more complicated otherwise and the probability of course decreases dramatically. We just want the letters and spaces in the right order. Assume the monkeys hit all keys at random. Again an oversimplification for the sake of the example, but we can perform tests to determine each letter's frequency of occurrence easily enough.
What is the probability of any character the monkeys type being the correct letter or space? One in 27.
How many characters are there in Shakespeare's
oeuvre? You got me and there are too many "characters" named "Count" in his plays to google it, but let's say a million. (I think it's at least ten million.)
So the probability of any string of one million characters typed by the monkeys to be the works of Shakespeare is one in 27^1,000,000. That's a number with somewhere between ten million and one billion zeroes.
That's a pretty small chance. If you had a whole planet full of monkeys and they type from now until the end of the universe in a reverse Big Bang the odds are enormous that it won't happen.
But what are the odds of a tiny live organism with the ability to replicate appearing spontaneously in the good old Primordial Ooze? That one is more difficult to calculate than the example you picked. But is it just as astronomical? Chemical reactions occur much more frequently than monkey key strokes. And there are a lot more sub-microscopic molecules to react in the Primordial Ooze than the trillion or so monkeys we could house on a planet. For comparison we're talking about the equivalent of an entire galaxy full of monkeys. Or perhaps an entire galaxy with the space between the stars packed with artificial habitats full of monkeys.
I don't know. It's a good question. But one thing I have learned is that when it comes to really, really big numbers--the kind we have to write in scientific notation instead of with commas--our intuition is no help and usually guides us in the wrong direction.
Theoryofrelativity said:
I'm not skeptical of evolution
I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you were. That was sloppy language on my part.
I do get what you mean when you say the fact something random can occur in such large time frame etc etc, but replication is not a simple process it is complex is it not? Thus how much credit should be applied to it occurring randomly those first few times, when it does not appear to occur randomly any more? What is lacking in our knowledge of those first few 'randomly occurring organisms' that prohibits us knowing 'how'?
There is no reason to believe that complexity cannot occur at random. This is the Shakespearean monkey problem. Given enough time, it's just a matter of probability, that that combination of characters can show up on a typewriter just as easily as one we're not looking for.
Any given combination of molecules, like any given combination of letters, is as likely as any other. (Of course I'm oversimplifying, you're not going to get molecules of argon iodide as often as water, but the math can still be done.

) Once you make peace with that, it's just a matter of a long cosmic wait for the one you want to occur,
no matter how complicated it is. Complexity means a longer wait, but it doesn't mean it is impossible.
It will be so fascinating to find out whether there is life on the first extrasolar planets we explore. If it turns out that life is common, that will mean that those reactions aren't all that rare. If it's not, it means we verge on unique.
Of course this will never stop the evolution/creation debate. If life is common the religionists will say that it could never pop up that frequently if it was a random chemical process. If it's rare they will say that just shows how special we all are to their god.