UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

No mate he has a really bad rep for promoting sensational garbage, usually to sell books.

You mean besides uaps? What else has he said that is so blasphemous to the physics ivory towers?
Do you think he should be blackballed? Do you think that posters who quote him in online debates should automatically be discredited?o_O
 
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You mean besides uaps? What else has he said that is so blasphemous to the physics ivory towers?
Feedback from physics forums.
I read his book in the 90s, Hyperspace and the ...

Great pop sci BUT his reputation with the serious physics community is along the lines of selling books.

Lots of guys do the pop sci way, Hawkwind did but they did not go full blown fringe.

Time machines, star trek, aliens. ....
 
A great read entitled "UFOs And The Boundaries Of Science".. It goes thru the history of UFOs since 1947 and the growing divide that occurred over the following decades between scientifically reputable believers and skeptical debunkers.

https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/ufos-and-the-boundaries-of-science/

"On June 25 of this year, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a brief report entitled “Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.” It fulfilled a 2020 directive from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, chaired at the time by Marco Rubio, which ordered the national intelligence director to publish an unclassified, public appraisal of the “potential aerospace or other threats posed by the unidentified aerial phenomena to national security, and an assessment of whether this unidentified aerial phenomena [UAP] activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries.” The request came partly as a response to news reports that Navy personnel had, in recent years, filed a number of incident reports involving UFOs . Since 1947, UFOs have been caught in cycles of periodic, animated interest from government officials, enthusiasts, and scientists. But results are always inconclusive.

In the lead-up to the report’s release, both believers and skeptics were abuzz with anticipation. Chatter on social media was lively, and the self-styled crusader for government disclosure about UFOs, former intelligence officer Luis Elizondo, announced he would run for Congress if the report seemed misleading.

In the end, the preliminary assessment proved a mixed bag. Enthusiasts could be buoyed by the government’s admissions that most reported UFOs were real objects, that only 1 in 144 could be definitively explained, and that fear of ridicule had thus far stymied witnesses and thereby inhibited effective inquiry. Debunkers, on the other hand, could point to the fact that most reports suffered from a lack of “sufficient specificity,” that the overwhelming majority of UAP demonstrated conventional flight characteristics, and that there remained a great many mundane explanations for the phenomena. All sides felt vindicated, all could claim victory.

And so, ambiguity reigns. To anyone familiar with the history of unidentified flying objects, this represents a familiar state of affairs. The first modern report of a UFO took place in Washington State in 1947, and since then the phenomenon has been caught in cycles of periodic, animated interest from government officials, civilian enthusiasts, and scientists. During such moments, it always seems that the riddle of UFOs is about to be solved. But the result is always inconclusive findings and a dispersal of interest, leaving few minds changed and everyone returned to their corners to await the bell for the next round. The seeming effervescence of our current moment notwithstanding, it’s doubtful we should expect anything different this time around.,,,"
 
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LOL It's not that complicated.
You're right, it's not. But you still get it wrong...
Even in your example the profile is of one set of objects--the beach balls. It makes no sense to use it to describe other non beach ball objects.
When you take the room contents as a whole, it makes sense. It describes the most typical profile of objects in the room. That's what the report does: takes all the reports it is investigating (cf. objects in the room) and says what the "most typical profile" is (cf. beachballs in the room).
How would that be illuminating? It's like when an FBI agent says the most typical profile for serial killers is a white male. middle aged, antisocial and single. He's not referring to any other people but this subset of people. Not to any of the exceptions to this generalization, Just to the majority of the members of the set of all serial killers.
Correct. And in my example I'm not referring to any other objects that are not in the room, only the subset of objects that are in the room. As you said, it's not that complicated.
Likewise, for UAPs the most typical profile is referring to only the round metallic spheres around 4 meters in diameter and that fly at speeds from stationary to Mach 2.
No, the profile is referring to the most common profile of objects in the reports it reviewed. Furthermore, you're already making the a priori assumption that they are one phenomenon. It could well be that the UAPs that fly at Mach 2 are distinctly different phenomena than those that are stationary etc. You're making unwarranted leaps. In the room example, maybe not all those 2-3ft spheres are beachballs. Maybe some are balloons. Maybe some exercise balls, or large spherical stones, etc.
You're jumping to conclusions that aren't there in the statements, to fit the narrative that you already have.
 
LOL Wow! So aside from whatever intense personal hatred or grudge you harbor for this man, for whatever reasons, what do you think of his descriptions of uaps?
I have no personal hatred or grudge for him. He's a very well respected theoretical physicist. But he should stick to that, as he has a tendency, as in the line I exampled, of speaking nonsense when it suits him, when he's trying to promote his books etc. But, hey, he's not here to defend himself, so I won't say more.
 
In the room example, maybe not all those 2-3ft spheres are beachballs. Maybe some are balloons. Maybe some exercise balls, or large spherical stones, etc.

You're changing your scenario to suit your argument. Here's how you originally set it up:

Imagine opening a door to a room and inside that room there are 20 objects. 10 are beach-balls ranging in size from 2 to 3-ft in diamater, 5 are model aircraft, and 5 are shoes.

IOW that's all that's in the room. Not balloons or exercise balls or round stones.

When you take the room contents as a whole, it makes sense. It describes the most typical profile of objects in the room. That's what the report does: takes all the reports it is investigating (cf. objects in the room) and says what the "most typical profile" is (cf. beachballs in the room).

But none of the non beach ball objects fit the profile at all. So they are automatically excluded from the profile. The profile fits only one object in the room, and furthermore the most common object in the room. That's what profiles are for--to describe only the most common member of a set. And it is one single subset of that set. As with the spherical metallic uaps: one single phenomenon, and not anything else.

Furthermore, you're already making the a priori assumption that they are one phenomenon. It could well be that the UAPs that fly at Mach 2 are distinctly different phenomena than those that are stationary etc. You're making unwarranted leaps.

No I'm not. The profile itself describes the spheres' velocity as from stationary to Mach 2. That includes all the spheres that fall under that range. It's really quite clear on that.
 
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You're changing your scenario to suit your argument. Here's how you originally set it up:

IOW that's all that's in the room. Not balloons or exercise balls or round stones.
And I've changed it to make a further point, to show you how your thinking is still erroneous.

But none of the non beach ball objects fit the profile at all. So they are automatically excluded from the profile. The profile fits only one object in the room, and furthermore the most common object in the room. That's what profiles are for--to describe only the most common member of a set. And it is one single subset of that set. As with the spherical metallic uaps: one single phenomenon, and not anything else.
Which is why I've changed the scenario - to make the further point. Deal with it. Your thinking doesn't become correct just because an original scenario didn't take a particular thing into account.
No I'm not. The profile itself describes the spheres' velocity as from stationary to Mach 2. That includes all the spheres that fall under that range. It's really quite clear on that.
You are assuming a priori that the profile describes one phenomena. It may not. For reasons given in the expanded scenario I've given.
 
The language of the claim does not support your conclusion.
Imagine opening a door to a room and inside that room there are 20 objects. 10 are beach-balls ranging in size from 2 to 3-ft in diamater, 5 are model aircraft, and 5 are shoes. It would be correct to say that, upon examining the contents of the room, "the most typical profile" was of a round inflatable object of about 2 to 3 ft in diameter. But does that mean that all the objects in the room are a single phenomenon??

They would all qualify as 'unknown objects in the room'. If we want to better understand what sort of unknown objects are in the room, it seems reasonable to begin by creating a descriptive typology of the room's contents.

In your own hypothetical example, we might begin by noting that the most common form observed in the room was 2 to 3 ft spheres. Then we could treat those as members of a class, the spherical objects. Perhaps upon additional investigation we might want to subdivide the class: perhaps some of the spheres are light and hollow, others heavy and solid.

What we can't do is frame things as you did and as you are probably correct in criticizing MR for arguably doing. We can't frame things terms of what they truly are (whether a single class of spherical aircraft or beach balls). We don't know what they are. All we know is how they appear, how they are reported. Our initial taxonomy will be in terms of that.

He's [Michio Kaku] a self-promoting hack who is so far out of his wheelhouse it's almost embarassing.

He's somebody who expresses views at variance with how our movement-"skeptics" demand that other people believe and behave. That's for sure. So predictably, he becomes a target for ad-hominem abuse.

But more to the point, what kind of "wheelhouse", what kind of specialized expertise, would you suggest is necessary for expressing opinions on this subject? I can imagine that experience and skill in locating external objects from a maneuvering aircraft and accurately estimating their relative movements might be important. Which would leave us with Fravor and Graves, but exclude Joe Nickell and Mick West as being so far outside their wheelhouses to almost be embarrassing.

I have a rule of thumb that as soon as someone appeals to Kaku on a matter that isn't about the theoretical physics he's actually an expert in, then they've lost the argument. ;)

That's ad hominem, Sarkus. But as long as we are going there, that's how the so-called "skeptical" movement appears to me. Michio has just as much right to express his opinions on the subject as the "skeptics" do. And (horrors!) somebody might find what he says valuable or even persuasive.

The difference between Michio and the "skeptics" is that he's just expressing his own opinions. Whether you find them persuasive is up to you. The dogmatic aspect so obvious with the "skeptics" is absent. Michio isn't demanding that everyone else must agree with him, or risk being denounced as incapable of intelligent thought.

It's that note of (typically unjustified) intellectual authoritarianism that makes me dislike the "skeptics" so. Hence the phrase in the OP "dogmatic skepticism" seems to me to be entirely apt.
 
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The profile itself describes the spheres' velocity as from stationary to Mach 2. That includes all the spheres that fall under that range. It's really quite clear on that.
What are you suggesting here?
That every sphere observed goes from stationary to mach 2?

Or that typical speeds of different observations range from stationary to Mach 2?

Only the latter is warranted.

Look at this similar wording you have posted: "...1 to 4 meters (3.3 to 13.1 feet) wide..."

This clearly means some accounts observe spheres of 1 metre and other accounts observe sphere of 4 metres. It obviously cannot mean each sphere in rach account is 1m wide and 4m wide.
 
The most typical profile for celestial objects is roughly spherical. That applies to stars, nebulae, planets, dwarf planets, asteroids, meteors and bolides - all of which are phenomenologically unrelated.
I notice you just sort of didn't respond to this.


If you were to read an ancient Royal Astronomical Society's description of all these mysterious objects observed in the night sky, you would apparently conclude that they are "all the same phenomenon", because they are categorized by their typical traits. You'd be wrong.


One could do the same thing for a catalogue of Cryptids. "...often seen in secluded wilderness, far from human settlements, generally alone, never in packs, etc.". Does that mean Loch Ness, Yeti and Wendigo are therefore all "the same phenomenon"?

No.

Angels, sprites and ghosts? Same thing: no. Our labels do not generate any kind of common cause.


These examples torpedo the unwarranted conclusion that all observed accounts from the AARO are somehow "a single phenomenon" simply because they they've been categorized by typical traits.

Let this be the end of that hasty conclusion.
 
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I notice you just sort of didn't respond to this.

It torpedoes the unwarranted conclusion that all observed accounts from the AARO are somehow "a single phenomenon".

Let this be the end of that hasty conclusion.

Only if you limit the profile to just one descriptor-- roughly spherical celestial objects. The AARO's uap report doesn't do that. It includes an array of observed descriptors such as shape, apparent composition, color, size, velocity, and flight altitude. That narrows the profile down to only one phenomenon--metallic orbs which he says they see all over the world and that perform very interesting maneuvers. That is clearly one type of uap. One thing, Not balloons or birds or drones or any other mundane object. A single unidentified phenomenon.
 
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They seem to me to be talking about what they, perhaps only tentatively and prior to further investigation, are grouping in a single typological class, the spherical objects. And they are saying that members of that spherical class display a range of observed characteristics and behaviors, such as size, speed, altitude and surface appearance.

I don't think that they are committing themselves to a claim that the spheres are all one kind of object, or conversely to a claim that they aren't. They don't know what these spheres are. They are just grouping them according to the observation that they are all reported to be spheres.
 
Ryan Graves' testimony before Congress of "routine" UAP sightings by Navy pilots off the coast of Virginia in 2014. Yes...he said routine! Not a one off like a weather balloon or a bird or a conventional aircraft. A multi-sensor confirmed and multiply eyewitnessed unknown phenomenon that went on for months..


"Over time, UAP sightings became an open secret among our aircrew. They were a common occurrence, seen by most of my colleagues on radar and occasionally up close. The sightings were so frequent that they became part of daily briefs.

A pivotal incident occurred during an air combat training mission in Warning Area W-72, an exclusive block of airspace ten miles east of Virginia Beach. All traffic into the training area goes through a single GPS point at a set altitude. Just at the moment the two jets crossed the threshold, one of the pilots saw a dark gray cube inside of a clear sphere — motionless against the wind, fixed directly at the entry point. The jets, only 100 feet apart, were forced to take evasive action. They terminated the mission immediately and returned to base. Our squadron submitted a safety report, but there was no official acknowledgement of the incident and no further mechanism to report the sightings.

Advanced UAP defy conventional explanation .The UAP we encountered and tracked on multiple sensors behaved in ways that surpassed our understanding and technology. The UAP could accelerate at speeds up to Mach 1, hold their position against hurricane-force winds, and outlast our fighter jets, operating continuously throughout the day. They did not have any visible means of lift, control surfaces or propulsion — nothing that resembled normal aircraft with wings, flaps or engines. I am a formally trained engineer and I have no explanation for this."---- https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ryan-HOC-Testimony.pdf
 
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Only if you limit the profile to just one descriptor-- roughly spherical celestial objects. The AARO's uap report doesn't do that. It includes an array of observed descriptors such as shape, apparent composition, color, size, velocity, and flight altitude. That narrows the profile down to only one phenomenon--metallic orbs which he says they see all over the world and that perform very interesting maneuvers. That is clearly one type of uap. One thing, Not balloons or birds or drones or any other mundane object..
No it doesn't. This is your wishful thinking bias again.

A single unidentified phenomenon.
"A single unidentified phenomenon" is an oxymoron.

If we don't know what they are, then it is far too early to decide they're one thing.

Like planets and comets.
Like Yeti and Wendigo.
Like ghosts and angels.
 
If we don't know what they are, then it is far too early to decide they're one thing.

That's insane. That's basically saying because we don't know what a phenomenon is, then it doesn't exist. The phenomenon of metallic spherical uaps is clearly one thing. And they are seen all over the world according to AARO head Sean Kirkpatrick. There is simply no way around it.
 
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My opinion is that the repeated sightings that Ryan Graves describes might well have been closely related. While they may or may not have been the same type of vehicle (I'm assuming vehicle, well aware that's an assumption) they do seem to have had a similar mission observing Naval air combat training exercises in the same area of closed airspace over a succession of days.

We have Ryan Graves' testimony (that I believe) that these things were observed both visually and on radar. We know that multiple aviators submitted reports using the Navy's new UAP reporting procedure. (The reports were FOIA'd and turned over with virtually all of the information on them redacted/blacked out.) We know that video of the objects was submitted with some of the reports. (The Navy refused to turn over the videos in response to FOIA citing their top secret classification.) In fact we know (from Congressional testimony) that all UAP video is classified top secret.

What I don't know is whether the metallic appearing spheres seen over the Middle East were related in any way, let alone whether they were the same aircraft type. All we have in that regard is that they were unknown anomalous spheres. (I'm sure the military and intelligence agencies know a lot more about their motions, infrared signatures and radar reflectivity etc., but it's classified top secret or above.)

I am very inclined to think (but I don't actually know) that Fravor's 'tic-tac' experiences off San Diego were related somehow to Graves' later experiences off Norfolk. Their descriptions of the vehicles (?) differ somewhat (spherical vs lozenge shaped), but the objects' missions seem similar (observing Naval maneuvers, capabilities and tactics over a period of days). There were multiple visual sightings in each case, corroborated by radar. (Which in the SD case reportedly included contacts decending from and ascending to space in a matter of seconds.)

Both Fravor and Graves agreed (in their Congressional testimony) that the anomalous behavior observed with these things include the ability to station-keep motionless even in high wind, the ability to accelerate from motionless to mach seemingly instantaneously, and the ability to make high speed right angle turns. All with no air surfaces or engine exhaust detected.
 
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What gets me, and what has always stumped me about uaps/ufos, is that they show no compunction whatsoever about being seen or detected by us. They appear at night lit up like discos. They land in sunlit farm fields pretending to collect plant samples in coveralls. They glide silently in vast underlit black triangles over major metropolitan areas. And now in these Navy encounters they're zipping in and out between jet fighters mischievously taunting them with their superior capabilities. It must all be part of some plan to disclose their presence to us, only gradually over the years. But the presence of what or whom? Are they culturally engineering some sort of global consciousness change in our species? Or are they AI artilects from the future preparing us for some unimaginable world crisis? It is all so obscure and baffling to me. Must...go.,, to...sleep now.
 
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They would all qualify as 'unknown objects in the room'. If we want to better understand what sort of unknown objects are in the room, it seems reasonable to begin by creating a descriptive typology of the room's contents.
Correct. The example is set up to show that the "most typical profile" of the objects in the room does not mean that all the objects in the room are the same phenomena. Similarly, with the amended example, that not all objects fitting the "most typical profile" are the same class of object.
In your own hypothetical example, we might begin by noting that the most common form observed in the room was 2 to 3 ft spheres. Then we could treat those as members of a class, the spherical objects. Perhaps upon additional investigation we might want to subdivide the class: perhaps some of the spheres are light and hollow, others heavy and solid.
Exactly. Until the point where we can get to confidently identify them.
What we can't do is frame things as you did and as you are probably correct in criticizing MR for arguably doing. We can't frame things terms of what they truly are (whether a single class of spherical aircraft or beach balls). We don't know what they are. All we know is how they appear, how they are reported. Our initial taxonomy will be in terms of that.
You misunderstand the way the example was set up: the example had nothing to do with the objects being unknown or not, only of analysing what can be inferred from "most typical profile". So your criticism of the framing of the example is fallacious, as you're comparing it to something it was not intended to do.
He's somebody who expresses views at variance with how our movement-"skeptics" demand that other people believe and behave. That's for sure. So predictably, he becomes a target for ad-hominem abuse.
No, he's become a target for those pointing out his non-science nonsense while happy to be promoted as a "famous scientist". One can only wonder what it is that makes him such a great theoretical physicist, yet happy to spew unscientific nonsense in his books aimed at the general populace. Oh, yeah, that's right: money and fame.
But more to the point, what kind of "wheelhouse", what kind of specialized expertise, would you suggest is necessary for expressing opinions on this subject? I can imagine that experience and skill in locating external objects from a maneuvering aircraft and accurately estimating their relative movements might be important. Which would leave us with Fravor and Graves, but exclude Joe Nickell and Mick West as being so far outside their wheelhouses to almost be embarrassing.
Anyone can express opinions. I have issue with unscientific opinions being expressed with the authority of "famous scientist", which only serves to convince people that the unscientific things he is saying are scientific.
That's ad hominem, Sarkus. But as long as we are going there, that's how the so-called "skeptical" movement appears to me. Michio has just as much right to express his opinions on the subject as the "skeptics" do. And (horrors!) somebody might find what he says valuable or even persuasive.
Of course everyone has the right to their opinion. But selling unscientific nonsense while selling it with the authority of "famous scientist" is a disturbing reminder of the pitfalls that fame has, both on the individual and society as a whole. That's what my view of him is about, not the dogmatic skepticism you're trying to pin it on.
The difference between Michio and the "skeptics" is that he's just expressing his own opinions.
No, the difference is that he's expressing unscientific opinion with the authority of a "famous scientist", giving the impression to those that won't know any better that because he is a "famous scientist" that what he says - about something he's not an expert in - should be taken as being supported by science. He starts with the a priori assumption that UAPs are extraterrestrial, taking the sensationalist approach. If he was serious why has he not written papers about it, proving, perhaps, that aliens exist, or that the UAPs are extraterrestrial? Because a paper will be read and judged by peers, perhaps? While a book such as his will not?
Whether you find them persuasive is up to you. The dogmatic aspect so obvious with the "skeptics" is absent. Michio isn't demanding that everyone else must agree with him, or risk being denounced as incapable of intelligent thought.
This has nothing to do with dogmatic skepticism. It has everything to do with an individual who really should know better. If his books actually went through the evidence in a scientific manner, if he stopped posting nonsense such as the burden of proof shifting, and he wrote a book that was actually scientific, then I'd have no problem with such a science book written by a "famous scientist". But he doesn't do that.
It's that note of (typically unjustified) intellectual authoritarianism that makes me dislike the "skeptics" so. Hence the phrase in the OP "dogmatic skepticism" seems to me to be entirely apt.
You're somehow taking a dislike I have of the way one scientist promotes himself and his otherwise unscientific nonsense, as an argument against dogmatic skepticism. Really?
 
What gets me, and what has always stumped me about uaps/ufos, is that they show no compunction whatsoever about being seen or detected by us.
Yet all we are ever left with is grainy photos, blurry images, taken by perhaps one person in a crowd while the others remain oblivious. If a UFO/UAP was flying over a metropolitan area, where's the footage from all the various angles that it would almost certainly result in? Almost everyone on the planet has a video-camera in their pocket, yet all we have is sporadic footage that's out of focus or blurred or too grainy to discern anything.
You know what also has no compunction whatsoever about being seen or detected by us? Weather balloons, birds, Venus etc.
And increasingly we're now in the era where drones are becoming more commonplace, even around metrapolitan areas (aerial photography etc). But, again, mundane.
It is those sorts of things that might also draw the attention of one person in a crowd but not others... something so ordinary is, well, ordinary.

If they were non-mundane and truly showing no compunction about being seen or detected by us, we'd have incontrovertable proof - not just evidence but proof - of them being anything other than mundane. Yet we don't. We still only have a few grainy images, or out-of-focus shots etc.

And even more, we're now in the realm of CGI being so quick and easy and realistic, that I fully expect we will be getting an uptick in supposed "sightings", people posting their CGI efforts on-line. It's going to become harder and harder to convince people that any new photographic/film evidence isn't just CGI, for sure.

Believers will believe, though. ;)
 
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