UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

San Clemente Island was discussed earlier in the thread. There's been an airfield on the island for many years. While the idea that it's used for testing UAVs is very plausible (I speculated about it myself in earlier posts) it isn't something that either I or Mick knows for a fact. What the Navy is doing on the island is in large part secret. (It's known to include lots of things like sonar testing and Navy Seal maneuvers.) I'm told by people who have circled it in boats, that while the side of the island facing the California coast appears deserted, the opposite side of the island has lots of lights.

I'm very curious how Mick supposedly knows that.
Did you read the metabunk thread, which Magical Realist so helpfully linked?
Assuming that the island is being used for UAV testing, the nature of the UAVs being tested is almost certainly highly classified. So it looks to me like there's a lot of speculation there being foisted off as fact.
Who is foisting off anything as fact? What are you talking about?
The Omaha's radar system is a military Sea Giraffe radar, not a commercial set that one would find on a civilian ship. But yes, assuming that the US Navy was testing UAVs (a speculation), they might indeed have been testing them against a modern warship (another speculation).
Like I said.
It's not an explanation, it's a highly speculative guesswork hypothesis.
"It was the woo" isn't an explanation, either.

So, we have (at least) two competing hypotheses. One of these is more plausible than the other. (Which is not at all to say that the case is closed, naturally, in case you're looking to read stuff into what I wrote that isn't there, again.)

One other consideration you might remember I mentioned: it is plausible that the US military, or at least part thereof, knows exactly what these radar contacts and FLIR sightings were. But, being secret military programmes and all, they aren't telling you and me. This, of course, is a conspiracy theory, of a sort. However, in this case we know that the the US military is real, secret military programmes are real, there's a real island near where the events happened where secret military stuff is going on, etc. It could all be coincidence, of course.
 
Flying in the air? Were they? I thought the radar being used was a sea-surface radar system.

"In order to relive operator interaction, Sea Giraffe AMB provides fully automatic operation for both air and surface targets, supported by a variety of different clutter maps and Doppler processing capabilities to eliminate both land and weather-driven clutter. Sea Giraffe AMB classifies and tracks fixed wing, helicopter (both moving and hovering), small UAVs, jammer and ballistic targets."---- https://www.saab.com/products/sea-giraffe-amb
 
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The San Clemente Island (SCI).
My bold
Navy site
SCI's distance from the mainland and its complete Navy ownership make the island and its surrounding area ideal for fleet training, weapon and electronics system testing, and research and development activities.
Research? Wouldn't that require all manner of 'odd targets' in the air and under sea?
By target I mean something to 'see' not shoot down.
If you can't detect them, you then use them yourself ??
 
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Sorry just not buying it Sarkus. The image on the FLIR clearly shows motion and then hovering and then plunging. This is not yet another comedy of errors. And no..it looks nothing like a jet flying away. You'd see a bright blob of jet exhaust. The signature of the uap is much clearer and darker and more distinct than that.
MR says ''And no..it looks nothing like a jet flying away. You'd see a bright blob of jet exhaust''
It's 11 at night and so black for hot.

MR says ''The image on the FLIR clearly shows motion and then hovering and then plunging.''
Here's Uncle Mick talking about the motion of the object and the 'plunging'.
I think Mick has a little joke near the end.
Also Mick notes there's six minutes missing from middle of 'clip' Why?( Two clips joined?)
4 minutes 40 seconds long. Mick is straight to the point from the start.
 
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Please do not troll.
Also Mick notes there's six minutes missing from middle of 'clip' Why?( Two clips joined?"

I think ole Mick is getting paranoid what with all these Navy tracked UAPs. Maybe he's due a visit from the Men in Black..

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Moderator note: Magical Realist has been warned for trolling (again).

Due to accumulated warning points, MR is back into the temporary ban cycle, so he won't be joining us for the next few days.
 
foghorn:

Mick West has done a good job on the analysis again.

It is clear that the FLIR video shows nothing but a heat source of some kind (perhaps a light, perhaps an exhaust signature of some kind, perhaps something else) gradually sinking towards the distant horizon and then disappearing behind it.

The object doesn't seem to move relative to the water. The ship from which the footage was taken is clearly moving forwards, which is to the right on the video. The camera has to keep adjusting its direction of view due to the forward motion of the ship, to keep the object in sight.

My initial thoughts were that perhaps the object could be a light at the top of a mast on a ship or yacht or other water craft. As the craft moves away, relative to the viewing ship, the ship sees less and less of the mast, until eventually the light passes beyond the horizon.

I would like to know (or work out, if possible) what the maximum height of the object was above the horizon. It is very hard to tell because the video footage has a very high zoom level and there are no other objects to be seen to try to get a length scale.

Anyway, I agree with West that the object doesn't do anything very interesting, whatever it is. It just very slowly drops towards the horizon and vanishes beyond it. As West says, it could be an alien spaceship doing some very boring flying.
 
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You say that like it's a bad thing. It's not. It's science at work.

Recall the track record for the historical accounts that have been verified. A very large fraction of them are, indeed, balloons or Venus.

The parsimonious approach to new sightings is to start by looking at the historically most likely cause, and trying to rule that out first.

"Hey I spotted fifty sets of hoof prints, here in the American Midwest desert - next to that herd of fifty wild horses! "

"Hey I just spotted a fifty-first set of hoof prints, here in the American Midwest desert! Should I test if it's an eagle? Or maybe I should first test to see if if it's just another horse?"
American Midwest desert? :) Like Iowa?:)
 
Sorry just not buying it Sarkus. The image on the FLIR clearly shows motion and then hovering and then plunging.
No, it doesn't. Once you correct for parallax it seems to be something slowly descending. Whether it descends into the water or beyond the horizon is unclear, although given lack of evidence of anything in the water when they went to search one might be tempted toward the "over the horizon" conclusion. But the FLIR footage doesn't "clearly show" such actual motion of the object, only apparent motion, which can be explained by parallax while observing a stationary object.
This is not yet another comedy of errors.
No one is laughing. ;)
And no..it looks nothing like a jet flying away. You'd see a bright blob of jet exhaust.
Do you have examples of what that would look like on FLIR? I mean, of just that phenomena: an aircraft moving away from the radar and over the horizon?
The signature of the uap is much clearer and darker and more distinct than that.
Is it, though? You would know this... how?
Asking for a friend. ;)
 
My initial thoughts were that perhaps the object could be a light at the top of a mast on a ship or yacht or other water craft. As the craft moves away, relative to the viewing ship, the ship sees less and less of the mast, until eventually the light passes beyond the horizon.

I would like to know (or work out, if possible) what the maximum height of the object was above the horizon. It is very hard to tell because the video footage has a very high zoom level and there are no other objects to be seen to try to get a length scale.
It maybe be a simple formula to find distance to horizon knowing height of camera above sea level but, not knowing the uap's altitude, if beyond the horizon, puts a damper on things.
Over at Mick's, it's another story of course.
If anyone is interested in that thread over at Mick's: Metabunk
 
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wegs:

Lastly, please realise that I'm not trying to be unfriendly if I question your assumptions or methods. There is an opportunity for both of us to learn new things from the other when we discuss what we disagree on and why.
I appreciate you stating this, James. For the record, I'm not offended by your position or your debate ''style.'' It stands to reason that this form of communication (on forums) allows for things to get lost in translation, like tone, sarcasm, humor, etc. Same with texting. So having said that, you've given me some food for thought regarding Mick West, and I'll share my thoughts on what my ''issues'' are with him. I've been somewhat vague as to my opinions on him thus far, so stay tuned...
 
Navy pilot Ryan Graves discusses government progress in destigmatizing UAPS:

https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...must-reveal-the-truth-to-the-american-people/

"As a former U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter pilot who witnessed unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) on a regular basis, let me be clear. The U.S. government, former presidents, members of Congress of both political parties and directors of national intelligence are trying to tell the American public the same uncomfortable truth I shared: Objects demonstrating extreme capabilities routinely fly over our military facilities and training ranges. We don’t know what they are, and we are unable to mitigate their presence...."

"....Why don’t we have more data? Stigma. I know the fear of stigma is a major problem because I was the first active-duty fighter pilot to come forward publicly about regular sightings of UAP, and it was not easy. There has been little support or incentive for aircrew to speak publicly on this topic. There was no upside to reporting hard-to-explain sightings within the chain of command, let alone doing so publicly. For pilots to feel comfortable, it will require a culture shift inside organizations and in society at large.

I have seen for myself on radar and talked with the pilots who have experienced near misses with mysterious objects off the Eastern Seaboard that have triggered unsafe evasive actions and mandatory safety reports. There were 50 or 60 people who flew with me in 2014-2015 and could tell you they saw UAP every day. Yet only one other pilot has confirmed this publicly. I spoke out publicly in 2019, at great risk personally and professionally, because nothing was being done.

The ODNI report itself notes that concentrated efforts to reduce stigma have been a major reason for the increase in reports this year. To get the data and analyze it scientifically, we must uproot the lingering cultural stigma of tin foil hats and “UFOs” from the 1950s that stops pilots from reporting the phenomena and scientists from studying it....."
 
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... could tell you they saw UAP every day.
Every day??
Interesting. So, by his own account (and we trust hm, right?) it is quite routine - daily, in fact - for many pilots to experience unusual circumstances that they are unable to resolve in situ.

That bolsters the view that pilots - despite being highly trained - are still quite wanting in their observation and analysis abilities while busy flying.
 
Every day??

I believe that he meant every day for a period of time. And perhaps these multi-day periods when they were present recurred, I'm not sure about that. The point is that it's a repeated thing, not a one-off.

Interesting. So, by his own account (and we trust hm, right?) it is quite routine - daily, in fact - for many pilots to experience unusual circumstances that they are unable to resolve in situ.

It isn't just pilots. I think radar saw them too. But not routine, it was something outside their normal experience as pilots and radar operators.

That bolsters the view that pilots - despite being highly trained - are still quite wanting in their observation and analysis abilities while busy flying.

That's why (real) skepticism means that the possibility of falsehood has to be considered in all human propositions and assertions. 100% reliability and credence are epistemological ideals, not something that we actually attain with flesh-and-blood human beings.

But that being said, the pilots are the best that we have. They are certainly more credible (to me anyway) than the dismissive speculations of layman debunkers who approach these cases with their conclusions already set in stone. (It's all bullshit.)
 
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They are certainly more credible (to me anyway) than the dismissive speculations of layman debunkers who approach these cases with their conclusions already set in stone. (It's all bullshit.)
I've never encountered any of those; I'll have to take your word for it.

Although, as MR points out, if I know someone is biased, I shouldn't take you at your word.
 
I've never encountered any of those; I'll have to take your word for it.

Although, as MR points out, if I know someone is biased, I shouldn't take you at your word.

That doesn't really follow logically does it? I may know that you are biased in your tastes toward enjoying pizza more than hamburger but if you tell me that you had a hamburger for dinner (unless I know that you are dishonest) that is no reason for me to not take you at your word that you had hamburger for dinner.
 
You're right, Seattle. It doesn't make much sense.

Maybe Magical Realist will explain to you what he meant.
 
Magical Realist:
Navy pilot Ryan Graves discusses government progress in destigmatizing UAPS:

https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...must-reveal-the-truth-to-the-american-people/

"As a former U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter pilot who witnessed unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) on a regular basis, let me be clear. The U.S. government, former presidents, members of Congress of both political parties and directors of national intelligence are trying to tell the American public the same uncomfortable truth I shared: Objects demonstrating extreme capabilities routinely fly over our military facilities and training ranges. We don’t know what they are, and we are unable to mitigate their presence...."
Graves is jumping the gun here.

It remains to be determined whether there are any "objects demonstrating extreme capabilities". The existence of not a single one has been verified, as far, to my knowledge, at least if we're to understand "extreme capabilities" to mean capabilities that go beyond the limits of known human technology or well-understood natural phenomena.
"....Why don’t we have more data? Stigma. I know the fear of stigma is a major problem because I was the first active-duty fighter pilot to come forward publicly about regular sightings of UAP, and it was not easy. There has been little support or incentive for aircrew to speak publicly on this topic. There was no upside to reporting hard-to-explain sightings within the chain of command, let alone doing so publicly. For pilots to feel comfortable, it will require a culture shift inside organizations and in society at large.
This is unproblematic.

Unfortunately, the blame for the stigma that Graves is complaining about most likely lies with the UFO enthusiast community, which routinely makes wild and unsupported claims about UAPs (such as they are alien spaceships, time travellers, or advanced aquatic species who live at the bottom of the Atlantic).

If 90% of the people who seem most interested in UFOs exhibit nutty tin-foil-hat tendencies (not to mention the outright fraudsters, of whom there are more than a few), unfortunately it becomes easy to assume that the 10% who do not might be tarred with a similar brush.
I have seen for myself on radar and talked with the pilots who have experienced near misses with mysterious objects off the Eastern Seaboard that have triggered unsafe evasive actions and mandatory safety reports. There were 50 or 60 people who flew with me in 2014-2015 and could tell you they saw UAP every day. Yet only one other pilot has confirmed this publicly. I spoke out publicly in 2019, at great risk personally and professionally, because nothing was being done.
If this claim is literally true (one or more pilots seeing UAPs every single day), I find it astounding that we don't have any good photographs, video footage or physical evidence of anything verifiably extraordinary, so far. You'd think that, at some stage, a pilot would be able to snap a decent, clear photograph of one of the things with his cell phone or something, wouldn't you?
The ODNI report itself notes that concentrated efforts to reduce stigma have been a major reason for the increase in reports this year. To get the data and analyze it scientifically, we must uproot the lingering cultural stigma of tin foil hats and “UFOs” from the 1950s that stops pilots from reporting the phenomena and scientists from studying it....."
There's nothing especially problematic in any of that.
 
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