UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Q-reeus:

I watched the entire video you linked. There were a few interesting pieces of information in there that I wasn't previously aware of. Also a lot of skeptical suggestions that were not addressed.

'Chapter three - skeptics and UFO's', from 10:24 - 24:00, covers some key objections of skeptics/debunkers endlessly recycled here. 'Billions of high-res phone cameras are out there', 'witness unreliability', Gimbal footage 'misidentification', and why e.g. 'a UFO landing at Yankee Stadium' would still be dismissed by hardened scoffers.
Yes. The excuse offered on the high-res phone camera point was that (a) all UFOs are far away from the cameras and (b) the high res cameras are lousy in low light. At the same time, the maker of the video discusses UFOs the size of houses or football stadiums flying over people's houses, which supposedly thousands of people witnessed. And yet, the maker provides no footage of all of those UFOs, not even poor-quality footage.

The excuse made for anecdotal evidence was essentially that thousands of people can't be wrong. But they can.

The video spends a lot of time examining the gimbal footage. It doesn't really succeed in dismissing the skeptic analyses of that footage. The maker of the video makes a few new arguments (new to me, anyway), but doesn't appear to have considered some obvious explanations that would tend to refute the points he raises.

The Yankee stadium excuse is that skeptics set the bar so high that they would automatically assume that any footage of a landing at Yankee stadium would be dismissed as a fake, no matter how real-looking, despite many thousands of witness and lots of independent footage (including, I would assume, lots of high-res, quality phone footage at taken close range by many independent witnesses). This is implausible.

'Final chapter - Nimitz encounter', 24:00 to end, recounts all the reasons why the 'tic-tac' encounters were more than adequate evidence for reality of UFO's as non-mundane.
It's all the same evidence that we've already discussed earlier in this thread. The fanciful "recreation" footage isn't actual footage taken at the time. The eyewitnesses are the same ones we have previously discussed.

I only object to the narrator's limiting the possibilities to aliens from another planet, or top secret military craft.
I don't think he does that. However, it is worth pointing out that, unlike Magical Realist, he does consider the possibility that UFOs are human-made craft. If that was true, they obviously wouldn't satisfy MR's definition of a UFO as something that has performance characteristics that cannot be attained by human aircraft.
 
Now come on MR - confess how many times you have settled on little green alien men (how sexist!) piloting saucers etc. from another planet circling a star far, far away.
How many times has MR settled on "pilots" of "craft" that display characeristics beyond anything human beings can do?

Answer: almost every time he posts.
 
Excellent points and analysis of skeptics' complaints. Totally demolishes Armored Skeptic's jet flare debunk of that Navy FLIR ufo video. Tks for posting.
Of course, it doesn't totally demolish it at all. This is just the typical sort of empty claim that MR makes habitually. I'm sure that it will get a "like" from Q-reeus - probably from dmoe too, since giving likes to his friends - no matter what they post - is practically his only contribution here these days.
 
Q-reeus:

I watched the entire video you linked. There were a few interesting pieces of information in there that I wasn't previously aware of. Also a lot of skeptical suggestions that were not addressed.


Yes. The excuse offered on the high-res phone camera point was that (a) all UFOs are far away from the cameras and (b) the high res cameras are lousy in low light. At the same time, the maker of the video discusses UFOs the size of houses or football stadiums flying over people's houses, which supposedly thousands of people witnessed. And yet, the maker provides no footage of all of those UFOs, not even poor-quality footage.

The excuse made for anecdotal evidence was essentially that thousands of people can't be wrong. But they can.

The video spends a lot of time examining the gimbal footage. It doesn't really succeed in dismissing the skeptic analyses of that footage. The maker of the video makes a few new arguments (new to me, anyway), but doesn't appear to have considered some obvious explanations that would tend to refute the points he raises.

The Yankee stadium excuse is that skeptics set the bar so high that they would automatically assume that any footage of a landing at Yankee stadium would be dismissed as a fake, no matter how real-looking, despite many thousands of witness and lots of independent footage (including, I would assume, lots of high-res, quality phone footage at taken close range by many independent witnesses). This is implausible.


It's all the same evidence that we've already discussed earlier in this thread. The fanciful "recreation" footage isn't actual footage taken at the time. The eyewitnesses are the same ones we have previously discussed.


I don't think he does that. However, it is worth pointing out that, unlike Magical Realist, he does consider the possibility that UFOs are human-made craft. If that was true, they obviously wouldn't satisfy MR's definition of a UFO as something that has performance characteristics that cannot be attained by human aircraft.
#3652 was posted with zero expectation of changing your mind or that of fellow skeptics/scoffers/trolls here. Positions are hardened and specious skeptic 'arguments' for want of a better word amount to preaching to the choir. The whole prevailing attitude is one of ganging up to have some idle fun in particular at MR's expense.
Unless some spectacular new revelation comes along I see no point in participating further here. Especially in a thread long degenerated into basically looping playback. Cheers.
 
Noone is inventing anything when they go strictly by the evidence. And when the evidence leads to ufos being what they are, that's where we have to go. There is no luxury of choosing one explanation out other less probable ones. We go by the evidence, as always with science.

So what does science say UFOs are? going by the evidence?

:)
 
So what does science say UFOs are? going by the evidence?
Indeed. MR has a hypothesis; he won't share it because he's backed himself into a corner when it comes to offering explanations.

I think MR would be perfectly happy it we just let "all this evidence" pour in unanalyzed and kept in the "mystery" folder. Thus, he can continue to believe privately even as he busies himself trying to silence any alternatives.
 
Well, unless MR has changed his mind, MR has already given us what he thinks based on the ''evidence''.
''Knowing what we know about ufos in general''
But knowing what we know about ufos in general and their demonstrated intelligent design and operation, I think it's logical to assume some sort of conscious pilots.
And MR speculation on the ''evidence'' leads to:
'' I have simply suggested that the intelligences behind ufos are not of this world''
I have never ruled out extraterrestrials. I have simply suggested that the intelligences behind ufos are not of this world. That can include interdimensionals, time travelers, or paranormal beings.
 
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Well, unless MR has changed his mind, MR has already given us what he thinks based on the ''evidence''.
''Knowing what we know about ufos in general''

And MR speculation on the ''evidence'' leads to:
'' I have simply suggested that the intelligences behind ufos are not of this world''
Yes, but then he equivocates about whether those intelligences are "alien".
He falls back on this anytime anyone posits a problem with "alien" explanations. It suits his purpose as a diversion from the primary question of the explanation.

He distinguishes between alien and - as a small sample:
- time-travelling humans,
- terrestrial non-humans and
- other-dimensional (but apparently co-located) intelligences.
 
And MR speculation on the ''evidence'' leads to:
'' I have simply suggested that the intelligences behind ufos are not of this world''

So no unknown secret BIG Government SuperDuper state of the art experimental technology which does not require any sort of pilot (hence the fantastic G forces)?

Good to know our place in the Universe

:)
 
Q-reeus:

You know there is a whole subforum dedicated to UFOs, Ghosts and Monsters?

You don't have to ride on the Magical Realist bandwagon and only post in his thread. If you have something more credible to offer, you could start your own thread rather than continuing to post in this trainwreck of a thread.

The whole prevailing attitude is one of ganging up to have some idle fun in particular at MR's expense.
Again, there's no need for you to ally yourself with the court jester. Sure, Magical Realist has made a fool of himself, but you still have some credibility left. I'd suggest that you don't waste it by throwing your lot in with Magical Realist and his blind faith.
 
Yes, but then he equivocates about whether those intelligences are "alien".
He falls back on this anytime anyone posits a problem with "alien" explanations. It suits his purpose as a diversion from the primary question of the explanation.

He distinguishes between alien and - as a small sample:
- time-travelling humans,
- terrestrial non-humans and
- other-dimensional (but apparently co-located) intelligences.
Sorry Dave, I can't help. I'm stuck back along ways, trying to find were ''ufos in general'' demonstrate ''intelligent design and operation,'' It's the context of ''in general'' .
But knowing what we know about ufos in general and their demonstrated intelligent design and operation,
 
Yazata,

You're a smart guy, but for some reason you're allowing yourself to be sucked into Magical Realist's Vortex of Stupid.

I'm not interested in getting sucked into your little emotional flame-war with MR. If you want to argue with me, you need to argue with me.

My consistent position on UFOs has always been a very simple one: if you think they're aliens, show me the evidence! That's all I ask.

Except that I've never argued that they are "aliens" in the extraterrestrial spaceships sense. So your whole argument is tangential to mine at best. (At worst, it isn't even relevant.)

What I am arguing for is keeping open the possibility that ufos are "aliens" (outsiders) simply in the sense of their being anomalies, evidence of something unexpected, something that doesn't easily fit in our existing conceptual scheme. Something truly new.

I don't really know whether any of them will actually rise to that level. My point is merely that I don't want to prematurely close off the possibility that a few might.

For the UFO crowd, like Magical Realist, every piece of trodden-down grass is an alien landing zone.

Has he ever said that? Or are those words that you are putting into his mouth, more indicative of your disdain for him?

But instead of admitting just how pitiful the evidence for the alien hypothesis is, you seem to be spending more and more of your time making up stories about how reasonable skeptics of UFOs, such as myself, have made up our minds that alien spaceships are an impossibility, before we ever look at any evidence. It's nonsense, and I know you're capable of better than this.

I sense that you are getting emotional again. And once again, you aren't arguing against my position, you seem to be arguing against some straw-man in your head. (The believer in alien spaceships.)

What I'm arguing for is keeping open the possibility that something new, unfamiliar and interesting might be making an appearance in some of these instances. Not all of them, not necessarily alien spaceships, and just the possibility.

Why do you want to throw your lot in with the likes of Magical Realist

Because I see him getting abused and ridiculed by people that I perceive as internet bullies. I don't like bullies and I kind of enjoy constructing intellectual speed-bumps in front of them.

a serially dishonest poster who trolls this forum almost continuously with his faith-based assertions? Is it some kind of anti-authoritarian streak in you that makes you want to stick it to the Man, or something like that?

I'm not interested in your moral judgments, James. I'm perfectly capable of making moral judgments of my own.

The complaint levelled at skeptics by True Believers more than any other, I think, is that skeptics are all closed-minded cynics.

It's a valid complaint and it isn't just leveled by your "true believers". Anyone who is open-minded and reasonably intelligent will oppose confirmation bias.

In reality, being a skeptic only means that you think critically about claims and you try your best to look at evidence objectively.

Which in many cases would imply admitting that we don't know an answer. Assuming, as many self-styled "skeptics" go on to do, that whatever the answer is, it must be something familiar, something that fits nicely into the 'skeptic's' pre-existing belief system, is an additional assumption far in front of the actual evidence and will likely be difficult to defend.

Exactly what I said. Magical Realist, as you will be aware, disagrees. For him, UFOs are all technological "craft". Even clouds are technological craft, according to him. That's where he starts. He's even on the record as continuing to deny that particular sightings of ghosts or UFOs are mundane objects even when all the available evidence points almost unequivocally to that conclusion. No UFO case is ever solved, according to Magical Realist. All UFOs must remain forever unknown. He's actually written that.

I haven't read everything he's written, so I'm not aware of him saying that. I will say that if something continues to be classified as an "unidentified flying object", then presumably it remains unidentified by definition.

That doesn't preclude the possibility that many ostensible 'ufos' might subsequently be identified (and thus cease to be ufos.) That's what typically happens, I think.

No no no! A thousand times no! How often do I have to say this? And what on earth gave you the impression that I have any such unstated premise? [That everything that happens must fit into an already existing intellectual category.]

Well, from how you argued so strenuously against me regarding the 'tic tacs', for one.

As I stated over and over, my preliminary hypothesis at this point has nothing to do with alien spaceships and is merely that something appears to have been physically there, and I don't know what it was. Simple and defensible. You battled that idea tooth-and-nail. Very passionately. You seemed to me to care very much about it not being true.

Your preferred interpretation seems to have been that either (1) no physical object was present that the radar detected, the pilots saw or the cameras recorded, and/or (2) whatever was present will prove (provided enough information) to have been mundane and familiar (or a whole coincidental collection of mundane things and events).

Your preferred interpretation seemed to have been the Joe Nickell theory that the whole thing was just a strange coincidence of errors. (Radar faults, things being misidentified as other things, pilots' imagination, camera glitches...) Never any evidence that any of those faults actually occurred, just claims that they might have.

I don't deny that is possible, but did argue that a whole comedy of errors somehow coming together to emulate the sighting of a single object, to multiple observers, in several physical modalities, is far less likely than the likelihood of a single error occurring in isolation. (The whole idea of scientific confirmation is dependent on that. Scientists might not be 100% reliable, but if Scientists B, C and D confirm Scientist A's results, especially if they are using different methods, the likelihood of all of them making congruent errors that all seem to suggest the same false result is reduced.)
 
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Except that I've never argued that they are "aliens" in the extraterrestrial spaceships sense. So your whole argument is tangential to mine at best. (At worst, it isn't even relevant.)

What I am arguing for is keeping open the possibility that ufos are "aliens" (outsiders) simply in the sense of their being anomalies, evidence of something unexpected, something that doesn't easily fit in our existing conceptual scheme. Something truly new.

I don't really know whether any of them will actually rise to that level. My point is merely that I don't want to prematurely close off the possibility that a few might.

And there you go with extraterrestrial aliens and their spaceships again. As far as I'm concerned, that isn't what this is about.

But, it does seem that it's all about aliens in spaceships. Even after decades of alleged observations, tens of thousands of alleged reports, you hope that maybe a few might rise to the level of aliens in spaceships. Don't you think that after so long a period of time and hoards of reports with nothing to show, the possibility of a few seems rather unlikely.

I don't think anyone here is closing off the possibility, it's just not something to bother thinking about until aliens in spacecrafts have been confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt, meaning that they'll need to land and show themselves to the world. Then, we can think about it.

Currently, we're just wasting massive amounts of time, energy and resources in the pursuit of something never shown to exist.
 
I'm not interested in getting sucked into your little emotional flame-war with MR. If you want to argue with me, you need to argue with me.



Except that I've never argued that they are "aliens" in the extraterrestrial spaceships sense. So your whole argument is tangential to mine at best. (At worst, it isn't even relevant.)

What I am arguing for is keeping open the possibility that ufos are "aliens" (outsiders) simply in the sense of their being anomalies, evidence of something unexpected, something that doesn't easily fit in our existing conceptual scheme. Something truly new.

I don't really know whether any of them will actually rise to that level. My point is merely that I don't want to prematurely close off the possibility that a few might.



Has he ever said that? Or are those words that you are putting into his mouth, more indicative of your disdain for him?



I sense that you are getting emotional again. And once again, you aren't arguing against my position, you seem to be arguing against some straw-man in your head. (The believer in alien spaceships.)

What I'm arguing for is keeping open the possibility that something new, unfamiliar and interesting might be making an appearance in some of these instances. Not all of them, not necessarily alien spaceships, and just the possibility.



Because I see him getting abused and ridiculed by people that I perceive as internet bullies. I don't like bullies and I kind of enjoy constructing intellectual speed-bumps in front of them.



I'm not interested in your moral judgments, James. I'm perfectly capable of making moral judgments of my own.



It's a valid complaint and it isn't just leveled by your "true believers". Anyone who is open-minded and reasonably intelligent will oppose confirmation bias.



Which in many cases would imply admitting that we don't know an answer. Assuming, as many self-styled "skeptics" go on to do, that whatever the answer is, it must be something familiar, something that fits nicely into the 'skeptic's' pre-existing belief system, is an additional assumption far in front of the actual evidence and will likely be difficult to defend.



I haven't read everything he's written, so I'm not aware of him saying that. I will say that if something continues to be classified as an "unidentified flying object", then presumably it remains unidentified by definition.

That doesn't preclude the possibility that many ostensible 'ufos' might subsequently be identified (and thus cease to be ufos.) That's what typically happens, I think.



Well, from how you argued so strenuously against me regarding the 'tic tacs', for one.

As I stated over and over, my preliminary hypothesis at this point has nothing to do with alien spaceships and is merely that something appears to have been physically there, and I don't know what it was. Simple and defensible. You battled that idea tooth-and-nail. Very passionately. You seemed to me to care very much about it not being true.

Your preferred interpretation seems to have been that either (1) no physical object was present that the radar detected, the pilots saw or the cameras recorded, and/or (2) whatever was present will prove (provided enough information) to have been mundane and familiar (or a whole coincidental collection of mundane things and events).

Your preferred interpretation seemed to have been the Joe Nickell theory that the whole thing was just a strange coincidence of errors. (Radar faults, things being misidentified as other things, pilots' imagination, camera glitches...) Never any evidence that any of those faults actually occurred, just claims that they might have.

I don't deny that is possible, but did argue that a whole comedy of errors somehow coming together to emulate the sighting of a single object, to multiple observers, in several physical modalities, is far less likely than the likelihood of a single error occurring in isolation. (The whole idea of scientific confirmation is dependent on that. Scientists might not be 100% reliable, but if Scientists B, C and D confirm Scientist A's results, especially if they are using different methods, the likelihood of all of them making congruent errors that all seem to suggest the same false result is reduced.)
I must commend you, Yazata, on maintaining your Scientific bearing.
This is a Science Forum.
Science!
 
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My point is merely that I don't want to prematurely close off the possibility that a few might.
Perhaps you are borrowing trouble?

Has anyone closed off the possibility? It seems to me that that event ought to have occurred before there is much point in addressing it. Then you'd have some assertions to find fault with. Technically, arguing against a position that has not been voiced would be a straw man.

I think there would not be nearly as much exposition about what it "likely isn't" if there weren't such a huge amount of wishful-thinking demand about what it "must be".
 
Yazata,

I'm not interested in getting sucked into your little emotional flame-war with MR. If you want to argue with me, you need to argue with me.
My post to you was aimed squarely at what you wrote. I even quoted you. In your post, you referred to MR and to river, so I also referred to them. I also used both of them as examples to show where the thinking (if that's what you want to call it) of the True Believers goes wrong.

Except that I've never argued that they are "aliens" in the extraterrestrial spaceships sense. So your whole argument is tangential to mine at best. (At worst, it isn't even relevant.)
I've said it to MR before, so now I'll say it to you. When I write "aliens" in the context of UFOs - in the current thread at least - you can take it that I include all of MR's suggestions about extradimensional beings, human time travellers from the future, spirits from another dimension - the lot of them. If you want to complain that I'm fixated on extraterrestrial intelligences then you're missing the point in the same way that MR consistently does.

The fact is, if you assume from the start, as MR does, that anything you see in the sky must have a non-mundane origin then you're making an unwarranted assumption right from the word go.

What I am arguing for is keeping open the possibility that ufos are "aliens" (outsiders) simply in the sense of their being anomalies, evidence of something unexpected, something that doesn't easily fit in our existing conceptual scheme. Something truly new.

I don't really know whether any of them will actually rise to that level. My point is merely that I don't want to prematurely close off the possibility that a few might.
After everything I've written about this, do you seriously think for one moment that I've closed off the possibility that some of them might be something truly new?

Never mind that the more stable UFO believers admit that 95%+ of UFO sightings turn out to have mundane explanations, leaving only a few "difficult" cases that remain unsolved. Never mind that in the 70 years that flying saucers have been a fad, nobody has managed to produce really convincing evidence that there's anything "new" in the skies.

The point is this: if you want to assert that a given UFO is something truly new, then you have to have established in advance of making that claim that your UFO sighting is, with high confidence, not something "old" - i.e. not something mundane or explainable in light of what we already know about our world.

Sure, anything is possible. But you're not justified in making the positive claim that there's something "new" until you have ruled out conventional explanations. And here's the thing: even in the best UFO cases, like the "tic tac" thing we've been discussing, conventional explanations have very much not been ruled out.

Has he ever said that? Or are those words that you are putting into his mouth, more indicative of your disdain for him?
I'm exaggerating, of course, but not very much. Have you actually read MR's posts on the topic?

I sense that you are getting emotional again. And once again, you aren't arguing against my position, you seem to be arguing against some straw-man in your head. (The believer in alien spaceships.)
When I argue against MR, I'm arguing against the believer in alien spaceships (/time travellers/extradimensional fairies/etc.).

My beef with you here is you are apparently ready to accept MR's lie (also the lie of many similar True Believers) that skeptics like myself make an a priori assumption that all UFOs can be explained with reference to conventional explanations. I make no such assumption. I never have. All I say is what I said at the start of my previous reply to you: if you think a UFO is something "new", the onus is on you to show that it is "new" (i.e. unexplainable in conventional terms).

Showing that a UFO is something "new" is not simply a matter of saying "we can't tell what this thing is, so there's a mystery here". We both agree there is mystery, from the start. That is why we need to investigate UFO cases in the first place. That's why they are UFOs - they are unidentified (at this time).

If, after extensive investigation, we can't pin down what a particular UFO is, then the correct conclusion is not "It was an extraterrestrial craft" or "It was interdimensional fairies". The correct conclusion is "We haven't solved the mystery at this time."

There can be all kinds of reasons why UFO cases remain unsolved. Only one of those reasons is that we might be dealing with something "new". Much more commonly, the reason it is unsolved is because there isn't enough evidence, or the necessary evidence we'd need to solve the mystery is no longer available, or the evidence is of questionable quality and/or provenance. It is simply shoddy thinking to assume that any case that suffers from these evidential problems must point to something "new" by default.

Because I see [MR] getting abused and ridiculed by people that I perceive as internet bullies. I don't like bullies and I kind of enjoy constructing intellectual speed-bumps in front of them.
You think I'm one of those internet bullies you're referring to? I'm going too hard on poor fragile Magical Realist and his faith-based beliefs?

I completely understand that you might feel that MR is entitled to believe whatever crap he wants to believe in, and therefore I have no right to challenge his beliefs. I agree with you that he is free to believe whatever he likes. However, he doesn't stop there. He makes strident claims that his beliefs are objectively verifiable with reference to evidence, and that's utterly wrong. Moreover, he is dishonest in all discussions about his claims. He selectively ignores all evidence that tends to refute his claims. He refuses to consider reasonable explanations that tend to undermine his claims. He refuses even to acknowledge the realities about the kind of evidence he most commonly presents - anecdote, unrealiable eyewitness testimony, fuzzy videos and photos of unverifiable origin, etc. etc. You've seen how he conducts himself in these discussions. Why would you defend him? He's a troll.

Maybe you think that MR is intellectually limited, so that its a bullying act for me to ask him to think critically, or to analyse anything he presents as evidence. I don't think that. What I find most frustrating about MR is that he has the capacity to think but actively chooses not to do so. The underlying psychology of that fascinates me, however. It's really the most interesting thing about MR, and I have yet to get to the bottom of it. I wonder what the real reasons are for why he believes in all the woo he believes in: the ghosts and the monsters and the conspiracy theories and the UFOs and the rest of it.

I'm not interested in your moral judgments, James. I'm perfectly capable of making moral judgments of my own.
Then open your eyes. Look at how MR conducts himself in these discussions. He's a troll.
 
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