Presidential predictions for 2024?

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Seattle said:
Voting isn't as important as you seem to think, in reality. It depends on where you live. In Massachusetts (for example) if you are a Democrat and you don't vote, Biden would still win. You have to live in a swing state for it to really matter (on the Presidential level).
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Yeah, it is important, even in places like Massachusetts. I get the point you're trying to make, but imagine if every Democrat voter concluded that their vote was unimportant and so didn't vote... suddenly the Republicans win. Similarly, if you take a swing state that ends with a majority of 2 votes, every voter and non-voter alike could claim that their's was not a very important vote as without their single vote the result would have remained the same. So you vote, not because it is important, but because it could be important to the overall result.
Now, if you did happen to know that sufficient people had already voted a certain way to ensure the outcome, then yes, on that basis you can claim that subsequent votes are not important. But how can you know that to have been the case when you vote? Exit polls give an indication, I guess. But you can't know for sure without counting. So you vote. Because it could be important to the result. And as such it is important to cast that vote. In my view, at least.
But... I do draw the line at saying that it should be made a legal requirement to vote, as I believe they do in Australia. Having the right to vote is not the same as having to vote.
 
Seattle said:
I don't think Trump will actually run (given all of his legal issues and I don't think he will want to lose again either).
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I think that's wishful thinking. Trump is already laying the groundwork against DeSantis by starting with the attacks early. He sees his legal issues as caused by Democrats and that's how he gets the revenge vote.

Trump is now seen as the head of the GOP. Trump voters believe that he is owed a win and they also believe the election was stolen from him. That's how Trump is banking on, be it in the primaries and in the election. They also believe that DeSantis should wait his turn and let Trump have this. This is their mindset.

Seattle said:
I think DeSantis will beat him in the primary if he does run but it will be close. He can't defeat him by winning over the hardcore Trump voters but he can (I think) beat him in the primary.
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No one knows. Given the hold Trump has over the party and the amount of money he has amassed, he can maintain his hold over higher ranking or well known members of the party who will do his bidding. DeSantis is clearly aiming for the White House. Whether he does it now or waits until 2028 remains to be seen. If he goes now and goes up against Trump, then he knows he and his family will be attacked by Trump. Republicans don't want that out there regardless. Because that will affect DeSantis's run for the WH in 2024 and 2028. Trump is petty and if he manages to lose, he will take DeSantis down with him. The GOP know this.

On the other side of that coin, there's the belief that DeSantis is Trump, without the 'crazy'. Some believe that what happened in Florida can happen elsewhere - while ignoring the reality that DeSantis guaranteed a sweep in Florida because of redistricting.

Either way, it's a lose lose situation. If DeSantis puts his name in the ring for the 2024 nominee, Trump will get nasty and go after him and that will result in DeSantis losing and probably losing a future chance in 2028 - or hoping voters have short memories and will forgive him for daring to go up against Trump, or he wins the nomination and Trump will drag him down and Trump voters simply won't vote for him - which can effectively split the vote. At present, the GOP is kind of split, between the more moderate voters and the die hard Trump voters who see him as the only leader of the party. While there is a bit of a pushback amongst voters against the Trump ideology, whether that is enough to sway the midterms remains to be seen. I think abortion and abortion access on a national scale may terrify some voters away from the GOP.

Seattle said:
That's not a certainty of course. No one is going to beat Biden (no Democrat) but it's possible that he doesn't run.
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Joe Biden is 80 years of age. Trump isn't that far behind.

Questions need to be asked as to cognitive competency moving forward. Biden may be fine now, but he may not be fine in 2 years. The same goes for Trump, by the way... Few can beat Biden. I think in a match-up between Trump and Biden, Biden would win. Between DeSantis and Biden? I don't know. I think age could be a factor. But a very large voting bloc - being women - would rightfully object to DeSantis's brand of conservatism and having that go nation wide would be a horrifying prospect.

I would imagine Bernie will probably run yet again, risking the Dem's vote and may split it once again. This is what Bernie likes to do. I don't think Harris is popular enough to carry the vote. I think Biden will run and will probably lose. Whether he sees out the entire term, that remains to be seen.

Seattle said:
Voting isn't as important as you seem to think, in reality. It depends on where you live. In Massachusetts (for example) if you are a Democrat and you don't vote, Biden would still win. You have to live in a swing state for it to really matter (on the Presidential level).
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That is a terrible take.

Seattle said:
Australia will become an authoritarian "state" before the U.S. does. More than it already is, I mean.
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How so?

Why do you think Australia is authoritarian or is at risk of being so?

I think the US, under Trump and the GOP, is dangerously close to becoming authoritarian than Australia is, by a huge margin. This is evidenced by the voters in Australia essentially repudiating right wing policies in the majority of States and also Federally, and I would say a large part of that is because of what we witnessed happening in the US under Trump and the cult worship he enjoyed and demanded from 'the people'.
 
Bells said:
While there is a bit of a pushback amongst voters against the Trump ideology, whether that is enough to sway the midterms remains to be seen. I think abortion and abortion access on a national scale may terrify some voters away from the GOP.
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I was a little puzzled by this? The mid-terms are already over.

By the way, I do agree that whether it's Trump or DeSantis getting the nomination, they are both bad outcomes.

Bells said:
I think Biden will run and will probably lose. Whether he sees out the entire term, that remains to be seen.
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I didn't get this either (probably just a typo or misstatement?) You think he will lose but aren't sure whether he will see out the entire term? If he loses, there is no term to see out?

Bells said:
That is a terrible take.
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(This was regarding my comment about the usefulness of voting). As I recall both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton got more popular votes than Bush and Trump so voting isn't all it's held up to be (in those cases due to the Electoral College). In Seattle, the Democrat Presidential Candidate will win everytime (which was my other point).

I do think that we should have nationwide electronic voting. We would get much higher turnout.

Bells said:
Why do you think Australia is authoritarian or is at risk of being so?

I think the US, under Trump and the GOP, is dangerously close to becoming authoritarian than Australia is, by a huge margin. This is evidenced by the voters in Australia essentially repudiating right wing policies in the majority of States and also Federally, and I would say a large part of that is because of what we witnessed happening in the US under Trump and the cult worship he enjoyed and demanded from 'the people'.
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That comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, in response to James condescending remarks about lazy Americans and the US becoming authoritarian like China.

If I wanted to make a case for my Australian comment it would be that both China and Australia have more authoritarian policies regarding Covid lockdown. Australian gun policies were pretty authoritarian after your mass shooting and a mandatory voting requirement could be considered authoritarian.

They may (or may not) be good policies but it is more authoritarian than the U.S. in that regard. As I said however, it was mainly said tongue-in-cheek or as James would deem by comments "I was lying".

Regarding Trump and the Republicans. They are getting tired of him (other than his core followers). I think it's just going to be a process to completely move on from him and the MAGA mentality in general.

It won't be better though until you start to see more moderate Republicans (focused on business, the economy and liberal on social issues) being able to run, win, and be in control at the national party level. Maybe that will happen by 2028? Who knows? This thread is only about predictions afterall.:)
 
Not a prediction but a poll seems to indicate DeSantis has the edge over Biden at this stage


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63967234

"According to the nationwide survey, Mr DeSantis also leads Mr Biden by 47%-43% among all voters in a hypothetical election. Seven per cent were undecided"

Whilst DeSantis is also leading Trump according to that article.

Question now may be "is DeSantis a safe pair of hands or is he Trump with more gumption but the same antidemocratic lean?"

Too early to call him the front runner,perhaps but the worry always was that Trump was laying the ground for a more savvy equivalent .
 
Seattle said:
I was a little puzzled by this? The mid-terms are already over.

By the way, I do agree that whether it's Trump or DeSantis getting the nomination, they are both bad outcomes.
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If Trump or in particular, DeSantis win, then abortion access would be made even more difficult.

Seattle said:
I didn't get this either (probably just a typo or misstatement?) You think he will lose but aren't sure whether he will see out the entire term? If he loses, there is no term to see out?
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Sorry, long day, I had meant "win"..

Seattle said:
(This was regarding my comment about the usefulness of voting). As I recall both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton got more popular votes than Bush and Trump so voting isn't all it's held up to be (in those cases due to the Electoral College). In Seattle, the Democrat Presidential Candidate will win everytime (which was my other point).

I do think that we should have nationwide electronic voting. We would get much higher turnout.
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Still a terrible take. Effectively encouraging people to just stay home because their side will win regardless, is a terrible take.

Seattle said:
That comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, in response to James condescending remarks about lazy Americans and the US becoming authoritarian like China.

If I wanted to make a case for my Australian comment it would be that both China and Australia have more authoritarian policies regarding Covid lockdown. Australian gun policies were pretty authoritarian after your mass shooting and a mandatory voting requirement could be considered authoritarian.

They may (or may not) be good policies but it is more authoritarian than the U.S. in that regard. As I said however, it was mainly said tongue-in-cheek or as James would deem by comments "I was lying".

Regarding Trump and the Republicans. They are getting tired of him (other than his core followers). I think it's just going to be a process to completely move on from him and the MAGA mentality in general.

It won't be better though until you start to see more moderate Republicans (focused on business, the economy and liberal on social issues) being able to run, win, and be in control at the national party level. Maybe that will happen by 2028? Who knows? This thread is only about predictions afterall.
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COVID lockdowns was no different to most other countries, including the US. We have gun restrictions, like most of the world. Mandatory voting - if you are registered to vote, then yes, you are required to vote. Most register when they turn 18. Our elections are also better, without the electoral college. We know where our votes go.

As for more moderate Republicans.. Sure. But they are few and far between. The GOP is now far right. Short of a party split, moderate Republicans are basically extinct within the party landscape.
 
Bells said:
I would imagine Bernie will probably run yet again, risking the Dem's vote and may split it once again. This is what Bernie likes to do. I don't think Harris is popular enough to carry the vote. I think Biden will run and will probably lose. Whether he sees out the entire term, that remains to be seen.
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sanders is already on record as saying he would not run against biden and would support him in 2024.


Why do you think Australia is authoritarian or is at risk of being so?

I think the US, under Trump and the GOP, is dangerously close to becoming authoritarian than Australia is, by a huge margin. This is evidenced by the voters in Australia essentially repudiating right wing policies in the majority of States and also Federally, and I would say a large part of that is because of what we witnessed happening in the US under Trump and the cult worship he enjoyed and demanded from 'the people'.
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you have to remember how you and i would use language and understand words to mean and how the american right uses language and understands words to mean are 2 very different things. the doublespeak that is common among authoritarian and autocratic parties and countries like Orban's Fidesz party in hungary, the law and justice party in poland, erdogans justice and devolpment party in turkey, and vlady boy himself in russia.
 
Sarkus said:
But... I do draw the line at saying that it should be made a legal requirement to vote, as I believe they do in Australia. Having the right to vote is not the same as having to vote.
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Actually, the de facto situation in Australia is that voting isn't compulsory, but turning up to vote is (postal voting and the like is still an alternative).

On election day, people who are on the electoral roll (i.e. citizens older than 18 who have registered to vote) have to turn up to a voting centre. When a voter arrives, they get their name ticked off on a list and they are given ballot papers. This is enough to satisfy the compulsory voting requirements. What happens to the person's ballot paper after this is completely up to them. They can stand in front of one of the scrutineers and slowly tear up their ballot paper if they like. Or they can scribble "I HATE POLITISHANS" in messy eyebrow pencil and pop the ballot in the box before leaving. Or they can draw a dick and balls on the ballot and pop it in the box. They can vote informally in lots of others ways, by not following the instructions on the ballot paper (e.g. ticking boxes instead of numbering them). They can also (unfortunately) cast what is known as a "donkey vote", which means that they just number the boxes on their ballot papers from 1 to however many candidates there are, in the order that the names appear on the ballot; since there's no way to tell if this accurately represents somebody's voting intention, it is a valid vote that counts. Or, they can choose not to completely waste everybody's time (including their own) and actually think about how they want to vote.

The upshot is that Australia has a system of compulsory showing up to vote, not of compulsory voting. But if you're going to show up at a ballot booth anyway, it kinda makes sense to vote, I think. On the plus side, it might encourage some people to think about who is governing on their behalf, once in a while, when they otherwise might not.

There are potential penalties for not showing up to vote. I think it's a small fine or something. My impression is that enforcement isn't taken very seriously. Similarly, registering to vote isn't something that is vigorously enforced, as far as I'm aware. Registering to vote is something you only need to do once, however. You're also supposed to notify the government if your address changes, so they know what electorate you're in etc. But I think they probably have ways to cross-check that kind of thing, too.
 
James R said:
Actually, the de facto situation in Australia is that voting isn't compulsory, but turning up to vote is (postal voting and the like is still an alternative).
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I'd argue that given that being recorded as turning up to vote but then not physically casting one is the same as deliberately spoiling a ballot paper, then it is quite sensible to record attendance as compliance with the law. I.e. there's no practical difference. It's not a physically spoiled paper, but it is otherwise the same.

But I still draw the line at making even attendance compulsory, whether one considers it a proxy for voting or not. It does make more sense where you have proportional representation, but even then I'd still not be in favour of making it compulsory. As said previously, the right to vote is important, and that is different from being forced to vote / attend.
 
Bells said:
Welp..

This is going to be an interesting election..

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1603442427473571841
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Why would you launch a Presidential bid one month, and then 4 weeks later hand your rivals all the ammunition they could ever need, even before you consider all the other stuff. He is... let's be polite and say... misguided (or poorly advised if this came from some actual advisors - maybe the advisors had a bet between themselves as to who could get Trump to do the most bizarre thing possible!?). And the timing of it, when the interest and value of NFTs has fallen through the floor... "Art of the deal" I guess, is knowing when to strike! ;)

Can't wait for the fun to begin! We've had our fun here, so now it's your turn, America. Again. :)
 
Sarkus said:
Why would you launch a Presidential bid one month, and then 4 weeks later hand your rivals all the ammunition they could ever need, even before you consider all the other stuff. He is... let's be polite and say... misguided (or poorly advised if this came from some actual advisors - maybe the advisors had a bet between themselves as to who could get Trump to do the most bizarre thing possible!?). And the timing of it, when the interest and value of NFTs has fallen through the floor... "Art of the deal" I guess, is knowing when to strike! ;)

Can't wait for the fun to begin! We've had our fun here, so now it's your turn, America. Again. :)
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Cold hard cash is why he did it.

And people bought it them. Never underestimate the crazy.
 
I want to get through 2023 before I worry about 2024.
For presidential preferences check with me in Oct 2024.
 
candy said:
I want to get through 2023 before I worry about 2024.
For presidential preferences check with me in Oct 2024.
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Between now and then, you get to see stuff like this...

FkCXgP8XwAAkH4b


:D

It's going to be a glorious 2 years!
 
If memory serves:
Boss Tweed(William Magear Tweed) once opined:
"I don't care who they vote for as long as I get to do the nominating."

The 2 major parties will trot out their favorite sons or daughters
for us to vote for
thereby continuing the illusion of "choice"

so
Every four years
The circus comes to town.
Enjoy the show.
 
I saw this on YouTube today. John Bolton thinks he might run for President. He might get the Hitler fans but I don't think it will go much further than that.

 
foghorn said:
It's his cunning plan, making people believe he's insane, and so avoiding prison if found guilty of any of the line of charges against him.
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If they send him to prison they will need to double security as breakout attempts are bound to increase as well as breakins by cult followers wanting to lick arse up close and personal.
 
if biden runs again i think he will win by a small margin
Democrats turn out for the person as a swing vote rule
republicans tend to have a consistent number of voters

the presidency appears to be decided by the turn out of democrats.

there is a gradual shift towards democrat majority as right wing policy becomes more and more unacceptable to a modern advanced developing society.
 
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