Intelligent design redux

NS1: "Such-and-such survives and reproduces well [in a given ecology] because it is well adapted."

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that this statement is non-circular; a perfectly respectable natural selection-type explanation. Is this right? I'll proceed on the assumption that this is your position.
It's important to bear in mind that when we're talking about evolution, we're not talking about individual organisms. We're necessarily talking about populations.

The theory of evolution does not - cannot - predict the survival or reproduction of individuals. Rather, it says something important - and non-circular - about how populations of many individuals change over time.
For it to be non-circular, the definition, or the conceptual content, of "well adapted" must not itself contain the notion of survival and reproductive success, otherwise it would be analogous to "Mr Smith is unmarried because he is a bachelor" (the concept "bachelor" already contains "unmarried").

With me so far?
No. It's fine to define "well adapted" in terms of survival and reproductive success. The content of the theory of natural selection says more than just "survivors survive". The theory talks about variation among individuals in a population and how nature selects from the range of variation.

More generally, it's worth bearing in mind that the modern evolutionary synthesis is not "Darwinism", in the sense that it is not just about natural selection. Other mechanisms are involved in evolution as well, which Darwin did not consider. But we can concentrate on evolution by natural selection for the purposes of the current discussion.
So now consider a population (not an individual - for reasons I'll explain if not already clear to you) of organisms, any species you like. Does it make any sense to say, "These organisms are really really super-duper well adapted . . . and even under normal conditions they all die young and produce no offspring."?

I'm saying this makes no sense.
I agree.
For example, I suppose when you think well adapted, you think of camels in the Sahara or something. Right? They can tolerate the heat, they can get by without fresh water for a long period, and so on. They do well -- they thrive -- at least relatively speaking, in the desert environment. To say they are well adapted, then, is just to say they can survive well in that environment. Is it not so?
It is so.
Presumably, to be well adapted also logically implies reproductive success.
In the context of evolution by natural selection, yes, it does.
If my above analysis holds water, then NS1 reduces to . . .

"Such-and-such survives and reproduces well [in a given ecology] because it is well adapted (i.e., inter alia, it survives and reproduces successfully in this ecology)" . . .

. . . and natural selection is in deep camel dung.
Fortunately, the theory of evolution by natural selection doesn't "reduce to" that.
 
Note second that you can -- and Darwin et al did -- generalize with natural selection theory, but the result is vacuous triviality
Now you just need to explain why Darwin's publication of On the Origin of Species created such a fuss at the time.

I guess he must have bluffed a whole heap of people into believing that his theory of natural selection isn't the vacuous triviality you claim it is.

What a fraudster, eh! The man was a genius con artist. But you found him out. Congratulations, axocanth, for pulling the mask off the shyster at last.

Or maybe you're missing something.
 
I'm going to address the following to only James and Write4U on the grounds that you are the only two contributors to this thread that I have been impressed by, among those that I've interacted with anyway (the rest are beyond hope lol).
That's zero for two for you being an astute judge of character or ability, so far.

I look forward to observing your ongoing interactions with Write4U, who has impressed you so much. I wonder how long it will take you to realise that you're wasting your time with him. Meanwhile, you've told me that you're going to stop interacting with me because I'm such a meanie to you. And yet you claim to want intelligent discussion. Go figure.
"First there were 10000 light moths and only 2000 dark moths. A struggle ensued. Due to factors (cf. causes) such as a gradual darkening of tree bark making the dark moths harder for predators to see, the proportion gradually swung in favor of the dark moths, until at the very end it was 90% dark moths and only 10% light moths."

....

Note that it would never cross your mind to suppose that there was some kind of selection process going on here because your natural selection goggles have been removed. Good thing too, because no selection is happening!
Something made the population swing from 1 ratio of 5:1 in favour of light moths to a ratio of 1:9 against them. It looks a lot like the dark moths were "selected" for "preferential" survival/reproduction.

One mustn't get too literal. One must understand that "natural selection" is an analogy. Darwin made that very clear in On the Origin of Species, which I'm sure you've read (right?).
Perhaps Darwin's biggest mistake was to liken artificial selection to his own postulated mechanism for evolution. "Nature does the same kind of thing", James suggests.
It's an analogy. Do you understand that?

It's similar to a physicist saying something like "The Moon in its orbit tries to fall towards the Earth, due to gravity, but it keeps missing the ground and orbits the Earth instead." The Moon has no consciousness. It is not an actor that makes a choice to do something. But we can anthropomorphise, by analogy.
I suggest nature does nothing remotely like what happens in cases of artificial selection.
It sounds like you haven't read Darwin.
I suggest Mother Nature does nothing at all. There is no "Mother" nature!
I think that maybe you've missed the role that analogy often plays in science, which is both significant and very often useful in promoting understanding and in appealing to intuition.
Now, finally turn your attention to artificial selection. First thing to note -- selection is happening! Duh! Certain organisms actually are being selected.

"But, c'mon now, no one ever really thought any actual selection was happening in nature!", you protest. "It's a . . . um . . . metaphor or something."

Damn right it's a metaphor -- perhaps the worst metaphor ever chosen in the history of the world!
Why is it the worst ever metaphor? It seems like a very sensible comparison to me.
Second thing to note, in every case of artificial selection -- unlike so-called natural selection -- there is a common cause! And I'll leave you to figure out what it is and report back to me.
That's not quite true, but I'm guessing you've managed to identify an important causal factor. I'll leave you to figure out what other factors are in play, then you can report back to me.
 
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One can barely turn a page in a book about evolution without being told natural selection causes this, causes that, and causes the other.
Maybe you're reading the wrong books.

Who said this? Was it Gould?
 
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"First there were 10000 light moths and only 2000 dark moths. A struggle ensued. Due to factors (cf. causes) such as a gradual darkening of tree bark making the dark moths harder for predators to see, the proportion gradually swung in favor of the dark moths, until at the very end it was 90% dark moths and only 10% light moths."
There was no "struggle" other than the ordinary struggle to survive and procreate. And darker moths were more likely to survive and procreate in the new environment.

And to go back to your original example, if that fighting between two countries had occurred without technological/societal assistance of any kind, and at the end one of the sides triumphed, then there would be more of them. In time, they would have more descendents. Natural selection, favoring whatever genetics the winning side had. Perhaps it was greater strength. Perhaps it was tougher skin. Doesn't matter, since natural selection doesn't select for specific traits, just survival and reproduction.
 
And to go back to your original example, if that fighting between two countries had occurred without technological/societal assistance of any kind, and at the end one of the sides triumphed, then there would be more of them. In time, they would have more descendents. Natural selection, favoring whatever genetics the winning side had. Perhaps it was greater strength. Perhaps it was tougher skin. Doesn't matter, since natural selection doesn't select for specific traits, just survival and reproduction.
So can we predict our future using evolution? I think it's heading towards the movie Idiocracy, which basically sends a dude into the future and the people in the USA are so dumb they are feeding their plants with Gatorade... I won't spoil it in case you catch it on your tv sometime. It's the dumb families that are having 10 babies, who if anything are dumber. The good ones aren't having kids, that's why I think Idiocracy is prophetic.
 
So can we predict our future using evolution?
Nope. Evolution drives organisms in the direction selective pressure takes them - which means that whoever reproduces the most sets the traits in the next generation. So unless we know what the selective pressures will be, we won't know what direction evolution takes us.

One view is that evolution always leads to "better" organisms - smarter, faster etc. But that's not necessarily true if those traits do not help you reproduce.

The contrary view - the theme of "idiocracy" - states that evolution selects for people too stupid to use birth control, and there is of course some truth to that. However, stupidity has its own downsides, and if you're stupid enough to kill yourself off (i.e. you irrigate your food with Gatorade) then that trait dies out as well.

There's no question that selective pressures will change in the future, as modern medicine allows us to survive and reproduce with more and more genetic defects. One interesting result of people having children later in life (a trend in most developed countries) is that we are selecting for longer and longer lifespans.
 
"Survival of the fittest" doesn't just one critter survives. The fittest of the critters have an edge, they are more fit to survive. If you're being chased by African painted dogs and you are faster than at least one other person you'll probably win the lottery, and pass on that gene.
 
One interesting result of people having children later in life (a trend in most developed countries) is that we are selecting for longer and longer lifespans.
There could be a selective pressure towards a longer duration of female fertility, but that wouldn't necessarily impact lifespan, would it?

Also, SNP mutations (and transcription errors in general) increase with the age of parents, which could lead to shorter lifespans as deleterious mutations build up in a population.

Given that overall reproductive fitness correlates with starting a family early but not too early (it's a U shaped curve, with parents 25-34 being optimal for a healthy offspring), a trend towards later in life childbearing could lead to shortened lifespan.
 
"Survival of the fittest" doesn't just one critter survives. The fittest of the critters have an edge, they are more fit to survive. If you're being chased by African painted dogs and you are faster than at least one other person you'll probably win the lottery, and pass on that gene.
Reproductive fitness is the game here, bear in mind. The slow guy who noticed the painted dogs coming and climbed a tree right away might be the one who returns to the village and fathers more children than the quick sprinter who has become kibble. Reproductive fitness is not the same as athletic fitness, though they can sometimes coincide.
 
There could be a selective pressure towards a longer duration of female fertility, but that wouldn't necessarily impact lifespan, would it?
Yes, it impacts average lifespan for several reasons.

It selects against people who die in their 30's, so AVERAGE lifespan increases
It selects against people who go through early menopause - and early menopause has some correlation to age at death
It selects against people who become obese/alcoholic etc later in life to a degree that makes them less likey to have children. These people tend to not live as long.
 
So evolution can know your stupid enough to feed plants Gatorade?
Evolution doesn't care or know about any of that. All it knows is that people are dying before they have kids. The reason is that all their crops are dying due to Gatorade watering, but evolution doesn't care about that.
 
As evolution is the result of changes at the gene level I would hesitate to say evolution "cares" about anything. The changes in the gene(s) isn't to accomplish anything, it's a error during replication. Evolution is hand-in-hand with devolution. If the change is an advantage then, all else being equal, it will confer that advantage of descendants who get the "improved" gene. If not then the animal runs a slightly greater risk of dying or otherwise irrelevant before passing that gene along.
 
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