It's important to bear in mind that when we're talking about evolution, we're not talking about individual organisms. We're necessarily talking about populations.NS1: "Such-and-such survives and reproduces well [in a given ecology] because it is well adapted."
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that this statement is non-circular; a perfectly respectable natural selection-type explanation. Is this right? I'll proceed on the assumption that this is your position.
The theory of evolution does not - cannot - predict the survival or reproduction of individuals. Rather, it says something important - and non-circular - about how populations of many individuals change over time.
No. It's fine to define "well adapted" in terms of survival and reproductive success. The content of the theory of natural selection says more than just "survivors survive". The theory talks about variation among individuals in a population and how nature selects from the range of variation.For it to be non-circular, the definition, or the conceptual content, of "well adapted" must not itself contain the notion of survival and reproductive success, otherwise it would be analogous to "Mr Smith is unmarried because he is a bachelor" (the concept "bachelor" already contains "unmarried").
With me so far?
More generally, it's worth bearing in mind that the modern evolutionary synthesis is not "Darwinism", in the sense that it is not just about natural selection. Other mechanisms are involved in evolution as well, which Darwin did not consider. But we can concentrate on evolution by natural selection for the purposes of the current discussion.
I agree.So now consider a population (not an individual - for reasons I'll explain if not already clear to you) of organisms, any species you like. Does it make any sense to say, "These organisms are really really super-duper well adapted . . . and even under normal conditions they all die young and produce no offspring."?
I'm saying this makes no sense.
It is so.For example, I suppose when you think well adapted, you think of camels in the Sahara or something. Right? They can tolerate the heat, they can get by without fresh water for a long period, and so on. They do well -- they thrive -- at least relatively speaking, in the desert environment. To say they are well adapted, then, is just to say they can survive well in that environment. Is it not so?
In the context of evolution by natural selection, yes, it does.Presumably, to be well adapted also logically implies reproductive success.
Fortunately, the theory of evolution by natural selection doesn't "reduce to" that.If my above analysis holds water, then NS1 reduces to . . .
"Such-and-such survives and reproduces well [in a given ecology] because it is well adapted (i.e., inter alia, it survives and reproduces successfully in this ecology)" . . .
. . . and natural selection is in deep camel dung.