Let's start this off with a prediction. David Horsey suggests,
In the aftermath of the first presidential debate, commentators noted that all Barack Obama had to do in order to be successful was hold his ground in the foreign policy arena, which is considered McCain's stomping ground. And the general verdict was that the Democratic nominee did that at the very least.
Governor Palin faces a similar standard, albeit according to a slightly lower bar. In the first place, this is a vice-presidential debate. To the other, of course, she is Sarah Palin. If, as Horsey suggests, Palin is able to fill the two minutes for her general responses without any catastrophes, it may well be that her performance will be scored as a resounding success. For his part, Senator Biden must simply keep himself in check and make sure he does not come off as thrashing Palin too hard. American sympathies are a curious thing; as the sad tale of the Bush administration reminds, if you conduct yourself believably according to a standard of unbelievable stupidity, the People will rally around you.
Horsey also asserts that, "Probably the only way the event could have a big impact would be if Palin wanders off script and starts babbling nonsense as she did with Couric". I disagree. The McCain/Palin ticket is suffering in the public arena right now, experiencing declines in trust and prestige ranging from the discouraging to downright harrowing. Indeed, a poor performance by Palin could spin the campaign into freefall, but an adequate showing—here defined as the failure to thoroughly embarrass herself—could do much to stabilize waning confidence among swing voters and conservative faithful alike.
And this is the most likely scenario. Indeed, I agree with Horsey when he asks, "She can't be that bad, can she?
I mean, really, if she is that stupid and incompetent, it only makes us wonder all the more how she ended up as the nominee.
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Notes:
Horsey, David. "Prediction: Palin will do well". Drawing Power. October 1, 2008. http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/davidhorsey/archives/150269.asp
Though Democrats would love to see Sarah Palin recap some of the more discombobulated moments from her interview with Katie Couric or channel Tina Fey's devastating impersonation from Saturday Night Live, I expect her to perform reasonably well in Thursday's "debate" with Joe Biden.
She's been training for it like an American Idol contestant and, given that she is not dumb, just ignorant of most aspects of national policy, Palin should be able to remember enough of what's been drilled into her brain to fill the two minutes that are being allotted for each answer. Sure, to policy experts and smartypants media types her responses are bound to sound shallow and memorized, but to the common voter she'll seem just fine. Most folks don't demand much -- just look good, show confidence and don't let your mind go blank in front of the TV cameras. I'll be surprised if Palin can't handle that much.
(Horsey)
In the aftermath of the first presidential debate, commentators noted that all Barack Obama had to do in order to be successful was hold his ground in the foreign policy arena, which is considered McCain's stomping ground. And the general verdict was that the Democratic nominee did that at the very least.
Governor Palin faces a similar standard, albeit according to a slightly lower bar. In the first place, this is a vice-presidential debate. To the other, of course, she is Sarah Palin. If, as Horsey suggests, Palin is able to fill the two minutes for her general responses without any catastrophes, it may well be that her performance will be scored as a resounding success. For his part, Senator Biden must simply keep himself in check and make sure he does not come off as thrashing Palin too hard. American sympathies are a curious thing; as the sad tale of the Bush administration reminds, if you conduct yourself believably according to a standard of unbelievable stupidity, the People will rally around you.
Horsey also asserts that, "Probably the only way the event could have a big impact would be if Palin wanders off script and starts babbling nonsense as she did with Couric". I disagree. The McCain/Palin ticket is suffering in the public arena right now, experiencing declines in trust and prestige ranging from the discouraging to downright harrowing. Indeed, a poor performance by Palin could spin the campaign into freefall, but an adequate showing—here defined as the failure to thoroughly embarrass herself—could do much to stabilize waning confidence among swing voters and conservative faithful alike.
And this is the most likely scenario. Indeed, I agree with Horsey when he asks, "She can't be that bad, can she?
I mean, really, if she is that stupid and incompetent, it only makes us wonder all the more how she ended up as the nominee.
____________________
Notes:
Horsey, David. "Prediction: Palin will do well". Drawing Power. October 1, 2008. http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/davidhorsey/archives/150269.asp