No contest
Palin fared well insofar as she didn't utterly choke. Then again, that's not much of a standard, even if we are somewhat accustomed to it after nearly eight years of Bushisms.
However, I don't think her performance was strong enough to cause a turnaround in the polls. The first part of the debate was agonizing as she kept abandoning the question at hand and falling back to her experience with energy issues. And the rest, as she became more comfortable, was something I'd heard about only briefly, and I can't recall exactly where. Apparently, one of her former primary opponents in Alaska said she's tough to debate because she is very good at reciting all the talking points. Indeed, that seemed to be the gear she shifted to once she got her sea legs under her. Attack Obama, attack "government", try to play the folksy role. There wasn't much for substance in the part she played.
It's clear Biden recognized this mode, and not only from the occasional smile that might have been patronizing amusement or maybe expressed disgust. He's probably done a bit of that sort of politicking himself, and knows through years of experience how empty it is despite there being a time when it was effective.
Palin's attempt to include herself with the people didn't play as well as it should have, in part because of her delivery. But then there is the point that Bill Maher has repeatedly made since her nomination. While Americans
are influenced in their electoral decisions by the notion of "who's more like me" and such, it's something of an uncomfortable thought that Palin is "like me". Many Americans would not find that notion complimentary. To put it more bluntly, many will think, "Okay, I'm not the smartest person around, but I'm not
that stupid." And while the lack of a Couric episode helped her to a certain degree, she did not fully overcome the sense that she doesn't really know what she's doing.
By any normal, equal standard, Biden won this debate. If we handicap the players, though, there is a strong argument for Palin. While she didn't
win, the simple fact that she didn't dissolve into a complete, blithering mess is enough to say she didn't lose, either.
And I don't think her gregarious approach—"Can I call you Joe?"—helped much. I don't know if she's actually that loud in general, or if some tech had the levels wrong, but at the beginning and end of the debate, when they shook hands, Palin was loud like a stereotypical drunken cheerleader. I know Biden said
something in those exchanges; I could hear a murmur of his voice. But Palin came through loud and clear. ("But
this one goes to
eleven.")
The thing is that there is a point at which omni syndrome fails a politician. We expect our elected officials to conduct themselves in something of a statesmanlike manner. Where Reagan was capable of pulling that off despite his mean spirit, Palin doesn't seem to have an ounce of statesmanship about her. This goes back to the idea that people like politicians who are like us. If that notion was pure, we wouldn't complain so much about negative campaigning, or spurious accusations flung back and forth, or even Bill Clinton's blowjob. Even the mean and petty generally find something distasteful about undignified politics; whether it's fair or not, we expect more of politicians than we expect of ourselves. Of course, even when they fail to deliver, we either send them back or call in relief in the form of a clone.
Substantially, Biden clearly had a clue about the issues; that isn't so obvious with Palin. To the other, though, perhaps it was the format, or maybe it was something about Biden's style after so many years in politics, but he seemed to miss obvious opportunities to definitively outshine her. One of those, and I fault Barack Obama for failing to make the point as well, had to do with diplomacy. All either of them had to say in response to this ridiculous complaint by the Republicans is, "Look, you don't get anywhere when you say, 'Give us everything we want, and then we'll sit down and talk with you about what we want'." It was a major obstacle in Northern Ireland—"Disarm and surrender your cause, and then we'll sit down and talk about your cause"—and plagues the Israeli conflict. It won't get
anywhere with Iran. And we certainly wouldn't accept such an offer from anyone else. It's the political equivalent of a cheap religious argument: "Before we discuss whether or not God exists, just admit that God exists."
So, yes, Biden should have made the point that the question of Obama sitting down with Iranian leaders has more to do with rendering the whole point of talking moot before we're willing to sit down and talk. And he, like Obama,
failed to make this point. If they're baiting the GOP into wasting rhetoric on the point they ought to know better. Subtlety is often dangerous in electoral politics.
My daughter was here tonight, so I didn't take off to my brother's and watch the debate over a couple glasses of bourbon. In the end, though, I sent two text messages. Thirty minutes or so into the debate, as she fell back to energy issues for about the fourth time, I asked, "Is she a one trick pony?" The response was, "More or less". And at one-seventeen—I can't recall the issue—I wondered, "What the hell is she talking about?" I'll have to go back and look at that part again, because all I can remember is that she wasn't making a whole lot of sense.
And did anyone catch that she got the whole climate thing backwards again? A few days ago, she said, "I'm not going to blame all of man's activities on changes of climate." And tonight she repeated that formulation, which suggests she's running by rote. Obviously, this doesn't help.
It wasn't a complete disaster for Palin, but it's hard to see how her debate performance will bring the Republican ticket's numbers
up. At best, she staunched some of the bleeding. McCain informally conceded Michigan today, a notable point because of its electoral college value (17 votes, and a 7-10% lead for Obama).
RealClearPolitics presently marks the tally at 260-163 in favor of Obama with 115 toss-up votes. The more striking aspect of that number, though, is that of electoral votes rated as "solid", the score is 171-158 Obama; of the votes from states rated as "leaning", the tally is 89-5 in favor of Obama. Only one state supporting McCain, according to RCP, is not "solid", and that is West Virginia. Recent trends, according to RCP show momentum for Obama; Oregon (7 votes) from "leaning" to "solid" in support of Obama, at a 9% margin. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (41 votes total) have all changed from "toss-up" to "leaning" in favor of Obama, with leads ranging from 5-7.9%. Meanwhile, Colorado (9 votes) has slipped from "leaning" in favor of Obama to "toss-up", although the Democratic ticket still has a 4.4% lead. Of RCP's "toss-up" states in general, McCain leads only two of them, Indiana (11 votes, 2.2%) and Missouri (11 votes, 1.7%). Obama has an edge in Ohio (20, 2.0%), Florida (27, 3.0%), Nevada (5, <1%), New Hampshire (4, 1.3%), Virginia (13, 2.4%), North Carolina (15, <1%), Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Washington (11, 6%), New Mexico (5, 7.8%), New Jersey (15, 8.6%), Oregon, Iowa (7, 9.5%), and Maine (4, 7.6%).
McCain has an excellent chance at taking North Carolina and Nevada; the former Michigan resources can help him, especially if Palin performed well enough in those voters' minds to counteract the collapse of confidence taking place within her own party—both states voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Still, though, the Republican ticket is only "solid" by RCP's measure in most of the South, Arizona, and Montana. McCain and Palin have a lot of work to do over the next month, and tonight's debate simply wasn't enough to turn the tide. At best, it seems, Palin will have slowed or stopped the decline.
I admit that, when we look back at this election, two points of analysis will intrigue me. One was McCain's appearance on Leno, when he officially beat the POW dead horse into the ground. The other, of course, is this debate. Things have seemed to go poorly for McCain of late, and as near as I can tell, it started with the Leno episode. Perhaps Palin at least helped get the rubber back on the road for the "Straight Talk Express". We'll have to see what comes, though, and
then we can take some time figuring out what happened.
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Notes:
"RealClearPolitics Electoral College". RealClearPoliticss.com. Accessed October 3, 2008. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
