UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

I don't think so. I have no preexisting belief that such visitations are impossible, or even that they are so unlikely as to be effectively impossible. I'm more inclined to think that they are possible in principle, and that their likelihood is impossible to assess without information that we don't possess.
This is exactly my take.

I mean, it would be fantastic and life-changing inasmuch as the chance to expand our knowledge, but I have a high confidence there is intelligent life out there, so this would simply confirm my (currently unfounded) beliefs.

The discovery that "non-human intelligences" are indeed visiting the Earth would seem to require those who class 'space aliens' with other things whose existence they deny ('ghosts', 'fairies', religious deities) to do a quick reassessment of that dismissive idea.
No one here that I see is "dismissive" of them.

Quite the opposite, I see some very deeply considered analysis of everything available, and it is just not convincing. Not one UAP has shown an unearthly origin.
 
The discovery that "non-human intelligences" are indeed visiting the Earth would seem to require those who class 'space aliens' with other things whose existence they deny ('ghosts', 'fairies', religious deities) to do a quick reassessment of that dismissive idea.

It stumps me that the very same people who scoff at ufos/uaps as "woo" do not on the other hand deny the possible existence of aliens in the universe somewhere. It must create some sort of cognitive dissonance that they in principle accept the proposition of alien existence while denying it in the case of their appearance on earth as uaps. It smacks of cognitive compartmentalization--that sure the aliens are out there, but they can never make contact with us.
 
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It stumps me that the very same people who scoff at ufos/uaps as "woo" do not on the other hand deny the possible existence of aliens in the universe somewhere. It must create some sort of cognitive dissonance that they in principle accept the proposition of alien existence while denying it in the case of their appearance on earth as uaps. It smacks of cognitive compartmentalization-
I doesn't stump you at all. You do the same thing with God. You choose what evidence you will believe. When you don't see evidence, you don't believe.

-that sure the aliens are out there, but they can never make contact with us.
Not can't. Just haven't.

I believe there might be aliens out there, but I have zero evidence to support that. And that means I don't claim it to be so and don't try to defend it. That goes for here on Earth just as much as it does out there in remote space.

As always, there is zero evidence for aliens visiting Earth, and rational people don't assert things are true for which there is zero evidence.
 
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As always, there is zero evidence for aliens visiting Earth, and rational people don't assert things are true for which there is zero evidence.

It's not that you are forced to not believe by lack of evidence. It's just that you don't WANT to believe, which leads you to interpreting evidence as insufficient to draw a firm conclusion. For example, what more would satisfy you about the 40 ft long tic tac encounter? Is evidence really lacking in this case, or are you just invoking your own assumption of incredulity or "wooness" regarding the aliens actually being here on earth already?
 
It's not that you are forced to not believe by lack of evidence. It's just that you don't WANT to believe
Oh cool. We're playing Dueling Mind Readers now?

Want to hear my thoughts about how your childhood desire to eat kittens is the cause of your belief in aliens? No? Maybe let's all agree to keep our mind-reading skills under a bushel.
 
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It stumps me that the very same people who scoff at ufos/uaps as "woo" do not on the other hand deny the possible existence of aliens in the universe somewhere. It must create some sort of cognitive dissonance that they in principle accept the proposition of alien existence while denying it in the case of their appearance on earth as uaps. It smacks of cognitive compartmentalization--that sure the aliens are out there, but they can never make contact with us.
Let me make a comparison :
  1. I assume you are pretty confident there are criminals in your city somewhere who commit break-and-enter crimes. A belief one might say borders on certainty.
  2. What do you think goes on in your own house? Do you automatically assume criminals are sneaking through your halls regularly, simply because they're out there? Or do you wait to see evidence of their presence before you assume it? Is a possibility out there tantamount to a certainty in here?
  3. If you couldn't find your keys, would you first assume that someone has broken into your house and moved them, or would you first eliminate some options like you moved them and forgot, or that a family member moved them?
  4. Is the fact that your keys are not where you expect them to be sufficient evidence to assume there's been a criminal in your house?
  5. What if you couldn't verify immediately that, say, your wife hadn't moved them? Say, she was at work and her phone was off. Would you immediately jump to "criminals" or would you accept that - though you can't be certain your wife moved them - it's pretty likely - certainly more likely than some stranger breaking in?
  6. Would you call the police (because you're certain you've been invaded) before verifying with your wife that it wasn't her? Before checking every pair of pants? Before retracing your steps out to the car? Or would you accept that those remain possibilities until such time as you personally can rule them out (If they ever can be. What if your keys slipped down the drain?)
I am very interested in your answers to these questions. Yazata could shed some light too.
 
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If space aliens have invaded our planet, they’re awfully anti-social. All of them. Not one has communicated. It seems strange that space aliens are here, but they’re just laying low. For decades. For centuries? And they’re not disrupting our planet, either? (Humans do a good job of that so we don’t need anymore help.)

Now, no communication doesn’t mean that space aliens don’t exist or aren’t visiting Earth, but it’s just not plausible to me that they would be parasitic only, clinging to our planet, unwilling to communicate. Or start a war. At least not advanced aliens. But even redneck space aliens (they may have them too, don’t judge lol) if they made it here, would be more advanced than us.

That’s just my opinion. If space aliens are here or were here, I’d like to hear more about what that evidence could look like. The tic tac object could be aliens but it could be advanced technology from another country. We’ve explored that possibility. I’m hesitant to bring space aliens into the mix because the theory can blind us to the truth, if we focus on it too much. If I’m going to head down a rabbit hole, it’s not to chase fringe theories.

This doesn’t mean that I don’t think aliens exist, but they likely haven’t visited Earth. There’s no harm in speculating whatever you want though, as long as it’s not preventing real research from happening to find the truth.
 
Let me make a comparison :
  1. I assume you are pretty confident there are criminals in your city somewhere who commit break-and-enter crimes. A belief one might say borders on certainty.
  2. What do you think goes on in your own house? Do you automatically assume criminals are sneaking through your halls regularly, simply because they're out there? Or do you wait to see evidence of their presence before you assume it? Is a possibility out there tantamount to a certainty in here?
  3. If you couldn't find your keys, would you first assume that someone has broken into your house and moved them, or would you first eliminate some options like you moved them and forgot, or that a family member moved them?
  4. Is the fact that your keys are not where you expect them to be sufficient evidence to assume there's been a criminal in your house?
  5. What if you couldn't verify immediately that, say, your wife hadn't moved them? Say, she was at work and her phone was off. Would you immediately jump to "criminals" or would you accept that - though you can't be certain your wife moved them - it's pretty likely - certainly more likely than some stranger breaking in?
  6. Would you call the police (because you're certain you've been invaded) before verifying with your wife that it wasn't her? Before checking every pair of pants? Before retracing your steps out to the car? Or would you accept that those remain possibilities until such time as you personally can rule them out (If they ever can be. What if your keys slipped down the drain?)
I am very interested in your answers to these questions. Yazata could shed some light too.

More like waking up one morning to find your car is gone from the driveway. At first you think maybe your wife or son is using it, but they are in bed still. Then you check the video camera of your front yard and see a man who get's in it at night and drives off with it. The evidence points to a crime. So you call the police. That's a better analogy because the evidence of the best uap cases points to them being advanced unidentified craft and not a misperception of a mundane object.
 
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More like waking up one morning to find your car is gone from the driveway.
No, I'm asking you.

If your car keys go missing, do you assume your house has been broken in to? Or do you first try to rule out more likely explanations - like you forgot where you put them, or your wife moved them?

It's OK; it's a rhetorical scenario. Of course you would not call the cops until you were certain your wife hadn't moved them. Until you know your wife didn't hide them, it is not warranted to think B&E.

And you can't fault that logic. It applies to UFOs as much as it applies to car keys.
 
The discovery that "non-human intelligences" are indeed visiting the Earth would seem to require those who class 'space aliens' with other things whose existence they deny ('ghosts', 'fairies', religious deities) to do a quick reassessment of that dismissive idea.
Deny?

Do you have actual evidence that non-human intelligences or ghosts or fairies or deities exist, then?

To be in denial is to have the facts in front of you but to pretend the facts aren't facts. On the other hand, if there are only fantasies and no facts, "denial" is not the word you ought to be using. Common-sense skepticism is what you ought to be after, in that case.

You've really slid down the rabbit hole of late, Yazata. What happened to you?
In ancient and medieval times, astronomers were able to calculate the positions of the (then known) planets in the night sky with very good accuracy, using their geocentric cosmology. At first, Copernicus' new heliocentric system was no more accurate, just a little simpler to use.

But today, after far more information was obtained, something similar to the heliocentric system (the Sun the center of the Solar System, not the universe) seems to be necessary for the kind of orbital mechanics used to guide spacecraft.
Not necessary. Just orders of magnitude more convenient to use. Just like at the start.

Boil it down to considering the orbit of just one planet around the Sun, for starters, and think. Think about the Earth and the Sun. The centre of mass of that two-body system is inside the Sun. So, for many purposes, it is convenient to pretend that the Sun is fixed in place and the Earth orbits it. In comparison, it's a bit nutty, in most cases where we're considering them movements of planets in the solar system, to pretend that the Earth is fixed in place and the Sun orbits it. Actually, it wouldn't be such a huge problem if Earth was the only planet we were concerned with. But once you factor in the other 7 planets and consider their motions, it is almost completely nuts to pretend, for instance, that Jupiter orbits the Earth; it just complicates things to a ridiculous degree. That precise degree of complication is what drove scientists like Kepler to look for a simpler model.
So a whole conceptual revolution occurred in how we think about the motions of the planets and their relationships to each other, despite the fact that the old geocentric idea produced very good predictions of the planets' locations in the night sky.
"Very good" is relative, and you're glossing over the reason why astronomers were relatively quick to adopt the sun-centred view of the solar system, especially following Galileo and Newton.
More fundamentally, we (both scientists and laypeople) have a whole intellectual vocabulary that we use to make sense of our experience of what is happening around us in the objective world. We speak in terms of 'matter', 'atoms', 'space', 'time', 'motion', 'forces', 'causes', 'possibility', 'law', 'substance', 'properties', 'change' and many more ideas like that, along with all kinds of mathematical stuff. Study of the history of science shows that all of those ideas have histories and their employment in physical theorizing was gradual.
Yes. For example, it's strange to think that the atomic theory of matter only really started to have solid evidence behind it from the early 1900s. The idea of a force lacked rigorous definition until the 1600s.
It seems to me that hypothetical space aliens with totally diffent histories and psychologies might think very differently, using a whole different conceptual vocabulary or at least one very different than our own at important points. And their way of doing things might work very well and might allow them to solve very advanced problems that stump us or that we haven't even imagined yet.
Possibly. But any space aliens we might meet will share the same universe with us. Their value of pi must be the same as ours. Their periodic table of the elements must agree with ours. Angles in a triangle must still add to 180 degrees for them.

The problem of establishing a common language to use in communicating with space aliens has been considered. Mathematics is an obvious starting point for developing one - especially if we're only communicating by radio and not face to face.
My speculation is that meeting them might conceivably cause some kind of intellectual revolution in how humanity conceives the universe analogous to the change from geocentric to heliocentric cosmology. But perhaps on an even bigger scale.

Imagine a tribe of stone-age hunter-gatherers on a remote island, that has never encountered the outside world. Their way of thinking of things might work fine for them on their island. Then imagine a helicopter suddenly clattering down from the sky! It would change everything.
Yes. There are many interesting historical accounts of first contacts. When it comes to helicopters and other aircraft landing on isolated islands, a very interesting search term to try is "cargo cults".
 
It stumps me that the very same people who scoff at ufos/uaps as "woo" do not on the other hand deny the possible existence of aliens in the universe somewhere.
Those two claims are very different.
1. Superadvanced alien beings are currently visiting Earth is spaceships way more technologically advanced than anything humans can produced.
2. It is possible that life developed independently in more than one place in our universe.

Consider claim #2 first. The first thing to notice is that nobody is claimed that extraterrestrial life has developed independently. That would be overreach, because there's no evidence to support it, so far. The second thing to note is that we know quite a bit about how life developed on Earth, though we don't yet know exactly how it started. The third thing to note is that we already know of one planet on which life developed, so we know for sure that life developing somewhere is possible. The fourth thing to note is that, so far as we know, there's nothing to prevent similar processes happening on another suitable planet somewhere.

So, to sum up, claim #2 is a not a knowledge claim. It is a claim about what is currently considered an open possibility. It is a reasonable and conservative claim, informed by what we already know.

Now consider claim #1. This is very much a knowledge claim. People are claiming to know that superadvanced aliens are buzzing Earth in their superadvanced spaceships. How do they know this? Apparently, they know this because some people have some fuzzy photos of blobs in the sky that they can't identify, and stuff. What is unclear is how a fuzzy photo becomes certain knowledge of alien visitation. As has already been pointed out, we aren't aware of any life existing anywhere else but on Earth. We know of no populated alien planets. People can't agree on what the blobs in those fuzzy photos are, even. There's no advanced alien technology on display anywhere that we can examine closely. We have no messages from any aliens. It's all just terribly underwhelming, when we consider the paucity of good evidence for the claim.

To sum up, there is no good reason to believe claim #1. The accumulated evidence is just too equivocal and of such poor quality that it is ridiculous overreach to claim to know that aliens are currently visiting Earth. Any critical thinker who takes just a little time to familiarise themselves with the embarrassing state of modern UFOology can see that.
It must create some sort of cognitive dissonance that they in principle accept the proposition of alien existence while denying it in the case of their appearance on earth as uaps.
See my definition of denial in my post to Yazata, above. Clearly you have no idea what denial is, either.

Also, depending on how we read what you wrote here, you might be misrepresenting the claim, either because you're too stupid to appreciate nuance, or because you're dishonestly trying to put up straw man or to muddy the waters.

Nobody has "accepted the proposition of alien existence" if, by that, you mean accepted that aliens actually exist; there's no good evidence for that. Rather, certain skeptics here - myself included - have accepted the proposition that aliens might exist elsewhere (i.e. not on Earth).
It smacks of cognitive compartmentalization--that sure the aliens are out there, but they can never make contact with us.
Then there are the lies that you and Yazata tell. Why do you do that? I know why. It's so you can pretend that the skeptic position on UFOs is unreasonable and biased. Maybe you're trying too fool others into joining your UFO cult. Maybe you're trying to fool yourselves. Either way, this particular straw man you guys keep trying to prop up just makes you both look terribly intellectually dishonest. It is people like you, who tell that lie, who help to give the UFO believer community such a bad image. You ought to try to do better. But I don't for a moment expect that either of you will. After all, you can no longer claim you don't understand what's wrong with telling this lie you both tell.

To be clear: to my knowledge, no skeptic here has claimed that aliens - if they exist - can never make contact with us.
It's not that you are forced to not believe by lack of evidence.
Belief is not something you choose. Either you're convinced of something - you believe it - or you're not convinced.

If you care about evidence, then an absence of reliable evidence is not something that is going to help convince you of any claim.

If, on the other hand, you don't give a damn about evidence and you can become convinced of something for other reasons - for example the personal emotion appeal of the belief to you - then absence of evidence is not going to bother you. In fact, you might even come to view the absence of evidence as a spur for you to have stronger faith in the belief.
It's just that you don't WANT to believe, which leads you to interpreting evidence as insufficient to draw a firm conclusion.
The difference between you and the skeptics, Magical Realist, is that the skeptics can say clearly what the deficiencies in the purported evidence are, and tell you exactly why they aren't convinced by your tales of aliens, whereas all you can do is to recite the mantra that the purported evidence can't possibly be anything mundane. You have never been remotely interested in actually examining any purported evidence in any objective way.
For example, what more would satisfy you about the 40 ft long tic tac encounter?
A 40 ft long clearly alien spacecraft on public display in the Smithsonian or somewhere would be a good start. The alien pilots doing the rounds of the talk-show circuit would be a great addition. Hell, even a clear photograph of the 40 ft long spaceship would be better than anything we've seen from your crowd so far.
Is evidence really lacking in this case, or are you just invoking your own assumption of incredulity or "wooness" regarding the aliens actually being here on earth already?
The purported evidence for any alien spaceship in the tic tac case is extremely poor. The visual footage of the tic tac looks a lot like a bird. The FLIR footage looks like it's probably something different, most likely a jet plane in the distance. We haven't seen any radar records of the tic tac encounter. There are only a handful of eyewitnesses who are willing to talk about it, and at least one or two of them seem to be making money out of telling their stories and speculating. In any case, what the eyewitnesses reported does not immediately scream "alien spaceship!" when looked at objectively.

So, yes, the evidence is really lacking in this case.

Worth noting also that this is among the very best UFO cases, in terms of evidence. Which really says a lot about the poor level of evidence for aliens.
 
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Then you check the video camera of your front yard and see a man who get's in it at night and drives off with it.
Hmm. It's more like you see a very grainy, out of focus still image (or video) such that you can't even say (without an a priori assumption) that it is a car you're looking at, let alone a person.

If only we did have cctv-quality footage to be able to discern what it is we're looking at. But we don't. We have the grainiest of grainy videos that also tend to lack context (such that parallax is a possible issue).
So let's not get ahead of ourselves with the analogy, eh, MR. ;)
 
Hmm. It's more like you see a very grainy, out of focus still image (or video) such that you can't even say (without an a priori assumption) that it is a car you're looking at, let alone a person.

If only we did have cctv-quality footage to be able to discern what it is we're looking at. But we don't. We have the grainiest of grainy videos that also tend to lack context (such that parallax is a possible issue).
So let's not get ahead of ourselves with the analogy, eh, MR. ;)

Actually I was being generous.:) To better reflect the multiple converging lines of evidence for uaps, it's more like in addition to CCTV footage there's also 2 neighbors who saw someone in the front yard that night as well as footprints in the snow. This correlates better to the consilience of the evidence in favor of an unknown craft (radar, IR camera, and multiple eyewitnesses).
 
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Naturally, you have dodged the question - because it would require you acknowledging that - unless it's UFOs - you would choose the most likely explanations.
 
Now, no communication doesn’t mean that space aliens don’t exist or aren’t visiting Earth, but it’s just not plausible to me that they would be parasitic only, clinging to our planet, unwilling to communicate. Or start a war. At least not advanced aliens.

That's problematic for me too. Why all the cloak and dagger? Just go ahead and make yourselves known already. Ofcourse this assumes we are familiar with their motives for being here and revealing themselves periodically as uaps. Maybe it's not to their advantage to be widely known. Who knows? That's why I remain deliberately agnostic as to who they are.
 
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That's problematic for me too. Why all the cloak and dagger? Just go ahead and make yourselves known already. Ofcourse this assumes we are familiar with their motives for being here and revealing themselves periodically as uaps. Maybe it's not to their advantage to be widely known. Who knows? That's why I remain deliberately agnostic as to who they are.

To study us and keep invasion plans on the table.

The conquering of Earth.
 
World War would be an ecological Armaggedon. I assume the aliens wouldn't want that any more than we would.

Maybe radiation to them is nourishing and keeping the fire alive -Putin suspending involvement in the START treaty, is a military tactic -to have ourselves do the work for them and radiate our planet so they crush us like ants with alien Nike's, The Holocaust of Humans.
R.944dbd7e029cec2a2a1bb411d3fa3290
 
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