UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Agree that those points are new in the sense of finally being contained in an officially released publicly available document.

I was suggesting that these things that I listed are new in the sense of being the US government's official "preliminary assessment" of the nature of these sightings. The government, the air force, or anyone like them has never publicly said anything like this before.

UFO skeptic Nick Redfern's 'it's still government agency(s) providing believable BS to conceal top secret US advanced tech craft':
https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2021...-the-subjectivity-of-public-to-mass-hysteria/

I disagree with his take.

I personally think that it's the most likely explanation at this point. Depending on how much weight we put on what they call the "small amount" of evidence that they have for UAPs displaying what they call "breakthrough technologies". If we assume those breakthrough technologies are real, then we have to speculate on their origin. I'd say that secret "black" US projects are the most likely explanation, similar secret foreign projects possible but less likely, and aliens/supernatural entities a distant third.

When the totality of the historical sweep of nonmundane UFO/UAP/AAP/USO etc. phenomena is integrated into as consistent an objective overview as possible, paranormal/supernatural is the only one that imo makes final sense. More or less in line with Jacques Vallee's take on it.

I haven't read Vallee's latest books. I was strongly influenced by his old Anatomy of a Phenomenon though.

My own view (at the moment, my ideas are a work-in-progress) is that 'Things Seen in the Sky' is a mythological trope dating back to prehistoric times. At one time 'The Heavens' were exactly that, the abode of the gods. So scholars in ancient Mesopotamia, India and China watched the skies very attentively, logging the positions of the stars prior to various big events. That was the origin of astrology. And they started to note cyclical patterns, which was the origin of astronomy. That's never entirely gone away. In the Middle Ages all sorts of religious imagery was supposed to have been seen in the sky, apparitions of Mary and so on. And today, in our secular supposedly "scientific" age, it's space ships and space-aliens. We even had Carl Sagan reverently chanting "Billions and Billions..." on his old Cosmos TV show.

It isn't entirely wrong either, since 99.999...% of the rest of the universe and whatever it contains is... up there.

What remains unchanged from the stone-age to now is that the Things Seen in the Sky represent transcendence, extra-mundane realities intruding down into our Earthly plane. So I most definitely perceive a myth at work here. One of our longest surviving ones, one that exists world-wide.

So now we are having these surprisingly well attested sky sightings of "UAPs". If they really are something physical, and the preliminary assessment seems to suggest that most of them might be, then they wouldn't seem to be mythological or the products of the Sky-myth that I just outlined. If the real physical objects are the signal, so to speak, and the myth is what we might call noise, there might be a real signal hiding (perhaps intentionally) in the noise.

If a secret aerospace engineering program can hide its developments in the noise, in the myth, then it can enlist legions of debunkers (the grievously misnamed "skeptics") to ridicule and sneer into oblivion any reports of their secret aircraft that might leak out. Sweet.
 
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Please elaborate. You are well aware the relevant Nimitz 2004 incident personnel who have come forward unanimously make the claim the footage they viewed was much sharper and lasted much longer than that publicly released. So you are calling them liars/conspiracy theorists?

In addition to the public, unclassified "Preliminary Assessment" linked to earlier, there's a much longer highly-classified report that goes along with it. Various people that have seen it have said that while it doesn't contain any bombshell conclusions not stated in the unclassified summary, what it does have is very detailed analyses of multiple sightings. The reason why it's classified is largely because it reveals so much about the capabilities and weaknesses of our radars and other sensors. Again, while there are no crashed UFOs or alien corpses on ice, there isn't anything that contradicts the public conclusions released in the 9 page unclassified summary either.

So I agree that first, whatever imagery exists in the public domain isn't imagery that will reveal real high-end capabilities to potential adversaries. And second, it doesn't come close to exhausting what they have. What's more, I would assume that the kind of skeptical deconstructions like those in this thread have already been considered in the analyses. (I don't know this, since I haven't seen the classified report. I'm simply assuming that these people aren't total idiots.)

You are further claiming the best multi-spectrum military surveillance gear available, and/or it's use, was 'shoddy'? And the visual encounters by multiple aircrew was also 'shoddy and unreliable'? Even though it matched radar intercepts very closely? YOU are the one needing to justify making such multiple charges!

The (greviously misnamed) "skeptics" seem to specialize in deconstructing individual pieces of evidence. They speculate about what might have caused a similar result to the one reported, without providing any conclusive evidence that their speculations are in fact the correct explanation. They seem to assume that military radars and sensors are hugely unreliable and that military aviators and sensor operators are fools. They ignore entirely that in a majority of these cases, observations were obtained by multiple observers or through multiple modalities (radar, visual, infrared etc.) such that an elementary error of perspective or a spurious instrument reading become far less likely explanations for the entire sighting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consilience
 
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The (greviously misnamed) "skeptics" seem to specialize in deconstructing individual pieces of evidence.
Yes. Because that's how it's done.

Skeptics have a much easier burden than UFO proponents.

It is not the skeptic's burden to demonstrate what it is - only to demonstrate what it certainly could be (because the parameters are sufficiently mundane). Contrarily; it is the proponent's burden to demonstrate that it can't be anything mundane. A much harder task.

It is not the skeptic's burden to demonstrate that there is no global swarm of UFOs; it is only the skeptic's burden to address individual reports. Because there's no unifying causation to these individual reports. There's nothing there until there's something there.

They speculate about what might have caused a similar result to the one reported, without providing any conclusive evidence that their speculations are in fact the correct explanation.
This is not the skeptic's burden or goal.

A skeptic need only provide an explanation that a goose or a balloon is probable. Who cares which one? It is only necessary to show that it's a mundane object, not which one.

They seem to assume that military radars and sensors are hugely unreliable and that military aviators and sensor operators are fools.
No they don't. 99.999% of radar sightings are interpreted accurately. We are seeing the one-in-one-hundred thousand that aren't easily interpretable.

This hunt for UFOs is the equivalent of saying "Oh my God, this one email is corrupted. It must be a global meltdown of the internet." while ignoring ten million emails a day that are fine.

They ignore entirely that in a majority of these cases, observations were obtained by multiple observers or through multiple modalities (radar, visual, infrared etc.)
More like proponents ignore the fact that so many of them aren't.
Example: No footage of a tic-tic is forthcoming. Lots of talk about it. Lots of conflation of all sorts of account into one blob. No footage.
 
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https://news.yahoo.com/ufo-experts-intelligence-report-apos-012533832.html

''Even if the UFOs that hundreds of military pilots and thousands of everyday citizens have spotted are extraterrestrial in origin, they are likely far too complex for us to understand, UFO experts told Fox News in the wake of an inconclusive report released Friday by the Director of National Intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP).

The report, which was ordered by Congress last year, examined 144 reports of UAPs from U.S. government sources since 2004.

Eighty of the reported incidents were observed with multiple sensors, including "radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation."
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In 18 of the incidents, "unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics" were observed, including the ability to "remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion."

Despite the intriguing sightings, U.S. intelligence analysts could only explain one of the sightings, which was a large balloon deflating.


Colonel John B. Alexander, who developed an interagency task force to explore UFOs while in the U.S. Army in the 1980s, said that if the phenomena are extraterrestrial, they are likely far beyond what humans are capable of understanding with our current faculties.

"Whatever this is, it is more complex than we can possibly imagine," Alexander told Fox News. "We're not at the point of even asking the right questions, much less expecting simple answers....."
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I agree with this assessment. As with all the ufo reports that have been examined for over 80 years now, these objects exhibit a technology and level of operation far beyond anything humans are capable of. It's almost as of they are made of a kind of matter that can become massless, something our current science can't even wrap its head around.
 
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...Let's be clear: I'm calling you, Q-reeus, a conspiracy theorist. Because you are. All you UFO nuts are....
...You sure read a lot into a one-line reaction. You sound upset. Why is that?
James R is back from the crypt after what's it been - 2 months absence? And straight into the same old shit stirring routine. Not interested in playing your game according to your rules. Have fun elsewhere at SF though.
 
"Whatever this is, it is more complex than we can possibly imagine," Alexander told Fox News. "We're not at the point of even asking the right questions, much less expecting simple answers....."

I have a bit more faith (not the religious faith flavour) in scientists to be able to ask suitable questions

I also have faith their answers would rule out supernatural stuff and physics breaking technology

Don't know would remain as a U in Unknown. From that moment financial considerations kick in. How many millions do we have available to chase down our speculations?

Do UFOs pose a threat? Here comes the U again Unknown. Have UFOs ever shown hostile intent? Seriously?

If Colonel John B. Alexander credits UFOs with technology more complex than we can possibly imagine

I would love to peek at his battle plans he would implement should they indeed show hostile intent

:)
 
James R is back from the crypt after what's it been - 2 months absence? And straight into the same old shit stirring routine. Not interested in playing your game according to your rules. Have fun elsewhere at SF though.

And so it's back to insults and ad homs and personal drama again. James is such a model moderator. NOT!
 
The (greviously misnamed) "skeptics" seem to specialize in deconstructing individual pieces of evidence.
What skeptics do is to take an overall, objective look at all the available evidence. That can certainly involving looking at certain pieces of evidence in an "in depth" way. For example, in regards to the Pentagon infrared videos taken from fighter jets, a number of skeptics have carefully analysed the footage and carried out various analyses to try to determine such basic facts as: how far away are the objects in the videos from the camera (or how far from the ground/water surface)? How fast are they moving? How do the effects of the motions of the aircraft and/or the camera itself impact on the apparent motion of the objects in the videos? How do characteristics of the camera affect the quality of its images and the features seen in them?

These are all sensible, basic questions that anybody with an honest interest in the truth of the matter should be investigating. The problem is that the UFO nutcase brigade almost never bother to do this kind of basic homework. They approach these things backwards. Their first assumption is that the object is probably an alien spacecraft or some other exotic thing. Then they try to find evidence to support that assumption. The result is that they often "deduce" things like impossible-seeming accelerations or speeds and the like, when the raw data itself supports no such conclusion. They also, notoriously, don't stick to just the facts that are backed by evidence. Instead, we get, from the start, wild speculation piled upon wild speculation.

You seem to have some issue with skeptics, to the extent that you claim they are "greviously misnamed". Probably you should sort out what your complaint is about skeptics. I'd be happy to discuss it with you, because it seems to me that you may be operating under a set of misconceptions about what skepticism is and about what skeptics do.

They speculate about what might have caused a similar result to the one reported, without providing any conclusive evidence that their speculations are in fact the correct explanation.
Of course.

You're aware, of course, that the UFO brigade similarly never provide conclusive evidence that any of their speculations are correct. So both sides are on an even footing, right?

Wrong! The skeptics start by assuming that the most likely explanation for a UFO/UAP is not going to be something extraordinary and heretofore unknown to science. That does not mean that they rule out such explanations a priori. It means only that, as they say, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.

The UFO crowd often posit a false dichotomy which says that if a sighting is unexplained then it must be extraordinary (aliens, supernatural, what have you). But that's crazy talk. We can only conclude that an object is extraordinary once it has been shown to be so, based on the weight of evidence. Nothing is extraordinary by default. The onus is on the "believers" to demonstrate the extraordinary, not on the skeptics to "debunk" the believers' faulty assumptions.

A rational person believes something is true when they have sufficient evidence to convince them it is true, not before. UFO nuts will insist that they are rational people, but their personal evidential bar is often set so ludicrously low that they will be willing to believe that just about any fuzzy blob in a photograph or video is an alien spaceship, often without doing any real investigation at all. Merely seeing a blob clears their evidential bar for believing in the extraordinary and the implausible.

They seem to assume that military radars and sensors are hugely unreliable and that military aviators and sensor operators are fools.
No. They assume that military personnel are human beings who can make mistakes like the rest of us. They assume that radars and sensors are instruments that are not perfect and whose readings are subject to human interpretation.

Of course, on further investigation, it can sometimes turn out that radars and sensors were faulty, and/or that certain operators are fools (or liars or whatever).
They ignore entirely that in a majority of these cases, observations were obtained by multiple observers or through multiple modalities (radar, visual, infrared etc.) such that an elementary error of perspective or a spurious instrument reading become far less likely explanations for the entire sighting.
That is certainly not true for the majority of UFO/UAP sightings.

You need to realise, also, that most such sightings turn out to have either straightforward explanations (the person saw the planet Venus and thought it was a UFO) or there simply is insufficient reliable evidence to make any definitive determination about what was seen (or even if anything was really seen).

The difficult cases are usually things on the edge of detectability of the relevant instrumentation, or cases where sighting conditions were unusual in certain ways, or cases where witness collusion or fraud is possible but difficult to confirm.

The bottom line from the recent Pentagon report is that the US military hasn't got to the bottom of some of the sightings that have been reported. But it's a very long way from "we don't know what it was" to "it was an alien spacecraft/extradimensional visitor/advanced Russian aircraft of an unknown type" or whatever.

To conclude, for example, that some non-American nation is secretly in possession of amazingly advanced aircraft with inertial drives that can defy gravity and G forces, is to jump to a premature and unreliable conclusion, based on overall weak evidence. Also, just thinking about what else is known about the technological capabilities of other countries, it is unlikely in the extreme that Russia, say, could have leapfrogged the US in aerial technology to the kind of extent being breathlessly suggested by some.

None of this is to say that it's impossible, of course. Skeptics ask only for evidence sufficient to support the claims that are made. If you think that is asking too much, then you're just not a very good critical thinker, I'm afraid.
 
''Even if the UFOs that hundreds of military pilots and thousands of everyday citizens have spotted are extraterrestrial in origin, they are likely far too complex for us to understand, ....

Colonel John B. Alexander, who developed an interagency task force to explore UFOs while in the U.S. Army in the 1980s, said that if the phenomena are extraterrestrial, they are likely far beyond what humans are capable of understanding with our current faculties.
Colonel Alexander is off on a flight of fancy. Let's hope he wasn't involved in the investigations that led to the report.
"Whatever this is, it is more complex than we can possibly imagine," Alexander told Fox News. "We're not at the point of even asking the right questions, much less expecting simple answers....."
Sounds like the Colonel has already made up his mind, before any data is in.

I agree with this assessment.
Of course you do.
As with all the ufo reports that have been examined for over 80 years now, these objects exhibit a technology and level of operation far beyond anything humans are capable of.
Nobody has established anything of the kind.
It's almost as of they are made of a kind of matter that can become massless, something our current science can't even wrap its head around.
You and the Colonel should go get coffee. You'll have a fine time fantasising together.
 
And so it's back to insults and ad homs and personal drama again. James is such a model moderator. NOT!
You ought to pay more attention to whom is flinging the insults. Right now, it looks like that's just you and your mate Q-reeus, as usual.
 
...The problem is that the UFO nutcase brigade...
Here we go. Imply anyone taking (nonmundane) UFO incidents seriously is a 'nutcase'. Notionally expect a civil, respectful response from said 'UFO nutcases'? Ha ha ha ha. No - intentionally expect rightfully resentful responses from said characterized 'UFO nutcases'. Then brand such resentful responses 'irrational', 'immature', 'paranoid delusional' etc. etc. James R's infamous MO.
...almost never bother to do this kind of basic homework. They approach these things backwards. Their first assumption is that the object is probably an alien spacecraft or some other exotic thing. Then they try to find evidence to support that assumption...
Oh really? No it's James R that invents 'backwards reasoning' stigmas as part of his nasty game-playing strategy. It's rather sick.
...The result is that they often "deduce" things like impossible-seeming accelerations or speeds and the like, when the raw data itself supports no such conclusion. They also, notoriously, don't stick to just the facts that are backed by evidence. Instead, we get, from the start, wild speculation piled upon wild speculation.
More shit stirring accusations that conveniently ignore the fact said 'wild speculation' is based on eyewitness testimonies from a large sampling of highly trained military personnel entrusted to efficiently and reliably operate top end military hardware in part because of their proven mental stability and overall excellent capabilities. And, importantly, personal integrity. Very occasional possible misidentifications ('go fast') notwithstanding.

The rest of that pseudo-sensible piece I'll leave to Yazata to deal with - if he chooses to respond at all.
 
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Here we go. Imply anyone taking (nonmundane) UFO incidents seriously is a 'nutcase'.
I didn't say that. You need to read more carefully. Skeptics like myself, for instance, take UFO incidents seriously enough and I'm not a nutcase.

UFO believers are a diverse bunch. From memory, they would include around 30-40% of the US population in their ranks, if poll responses are to be believed. But break it down and you find beliefs ranging from "I think it's likely there are aliens out there in the cosmos" to "I'm regularly kidnapped by alien beings who probe me, so I have first-hand experience of aliens." What believers consider good enough evidence varies according to the believer. On this forum, for instance, you must realise that Magical Realist is at the "My mind's so open, I'm willing to believe just about anything somebody tells me" end of the scale, which makes him a certifiable UFO nut (among other things), whereas you're a bit further along the scale, willing to accept that at least some sightings of UFOs are not of
extraordinary objects. Since you're a believer, you're still barking up the wrong tree, but that doesn't make you and out and out nutcase.

Notionally expect a civil, respectful response from said 'UFO nutcases'? Ha ha ha ha. No - intentionally expect rightfully resentful responses from said characterized 'UFO nutcases'. Then brand such resentful responses 'irrational', 'immature', 'paranoid delusional' etc. etc. James R's infamous MO.
If you want to self-identify as one of the nutcases, that's on you, not me.
Oh really?
Yes, really. We see it over and over. Are you not aware of this?
No it's James R that invents 'backwards reasoning' stigmas as part of his nasty game-playing strategy.
It's easy to check whether I'm correct or not. Go and check for yourself. Really, do a little research. Talk to Magical Realist, for instance.
More shit stirring accusations that conveniently ignore the fact said 'wild speculation' is based on eyewitness testimonies...
You can stop right there. How can wild speculation be based on anything? By definition, wild speculation is a flight of fancy that is based on nothing in particular. The details or confirmation of eyewitness testimony and other evidence is only of vague background interest to somebody engaged in wild speculation. The fanciful story they are creating is the focus.
... from a large sampling of highly trained military personnel entrusted to efficiently and reliably operate top end military hardware in part because of their proven mental stability and overall excellent capabilities.
You seem to put the military on a pedestal. Do you know anybody in the military? Hint: military people are people, just like you and me.

It's a bad mistake, by the way, to assume that just because somebody is trained in operating a radar system, let's say, that they are therefore well-equipped to accurately identify unusual objects that are almost never seen on their radar screens. How many military radar operators go through their entire careers without seeing a single UFO on their radar screens? Is identifying UFOs included in their specialist military training? I think you know the answer.

It would also be a grave mistake to assume that a military investigator of UFO sightings - one who might write a report for the Pentagon, for instance - would automatically be better equipped to evaluate the sighting than, say, a trained civilian scientist or an experienced skeptic. The guys that get assigned to those kinds of projects may be experts in some things, but UFOs is very unlikely to be one of their areas of expertise.
The rest of that pseudo-sensible piece I'll leave to Yazata to deal with - if he chooses to respond at all.
You have no response because everything I wrote there is eminently sensible and uncontroversial. You're only here for the fight.
 
I didn't say that. You need to read more carefully. Skeptics like myself, for instance, take UFO incidents seriously enough and I'm not a nutcase.

UFO believers are a diverse bunch. From memory, they would include around 30-40% of the US population in their ranks, if poll responses are to be believed. But break it down and you find beliefs ranging from "I think it's likely there are aliens out there in the cosmos" to "I'm regularly kidnapped by alien beings who probe me, so I have first-hand experience of aliens." What believers consider good enough evidence varies according to the believer. On this forum, for instance, you must realise that Magical Realist is at the "My mind's so open, I'm willing to believe just about anything somebody tells me" end of the scale, which makes him a certifiable UFO nut (among other things), whereas you're a bit further along the scale, willing to accept that at least some sightings of UFOs are not of
extraordinary objects. Since you're a believer, you're still barking up the wrong tree, but that doesn't make you and out and out nutcase.


If you want to self-identify as one of the nutcases, that's on you, not me.

Yes, really. We see it over and over. Are you not aware of this?

It's easy to check whether I'm correct or not. Go and check for yourself. Really, do a little research. Talk to Magical Realist, for instance.

You can stop right there. How can wild speculation be based on anything? By definition, wild speculation is a flight of fancy that is based on nothing in particular. The details or confirmation of eyewitness testimony and other evidence is only of vague background interest to somebody engaged in wild speculation. The fanciful story they are creating is the focus.

You seem to put the military on a pedestal. Do you know anybody in the military? Hint: military people are people, just like you and me.

It's a bad mistake, by the way, to assume that just because somebody is trained in operating a radar system, let's say, that they are therefore well-equipped to accurately identify unusual objects that are almost never seen on their radar screens. How many military radar operators go through their entire careers without seeing a single UFO on their radar screens? Is identifying UFOs included in their specialist military training? I think you know the answer.

It would also be a grave mistake to assume that a military investigator of UFO sightings - one who might write a report for the Pentagon, for instance - would automatically be better equipped to evaluate the sighting than, say, a trained civilian scientist or an experienced skeptic. The guys that get assigned to those kinds of projects may be experts in some things, but UFOs is very unlikely to be one of their areas of expertise.

You have no response because everything I wrote there is eminently sensible and uncontroversial. You're only here for the fight.
Ha ha ha ha. Whatever you say James R. Nothing further to add your honor.
 
Typical. The nervous laughter. The complete failure to engage with the content. We both know why that is, don't we, Q-reeus?
You have been pulled up on that baseless 'nervous laughter' insinuation before. Unless you claim god-like ability to peer into my mind, admit it's just part of your game-playing tactics.
And no it's patently obvious I haven't 'failed to engage' with honest, meaningful, fact-based content. Notwithstanding your highly selective way of painting your ideological opponents here.
Let us know if you want to get back to discussing actual UFO/UAP etc. content, rather than personal jousts.
 
You have been pulled up on that baseless 'nervous laughter' insinuation before.
You and I both know it's not baseless. It's a nervous tic. You've picked it up from Magical Realist.
And no it's patently obvious I haven't 'failed to engage' with honest, meaningful, fact-based content.
I helpfully provided you with some honest, meaningful fact-based content in post #4953, just above. The only response you could muster was the nervous laugh and the blithe attempt to wave the inconvenient truths aside.
Let us know if you want to get back to discussing actual UFO/UAP etc. content, rather than personal jousts.
Let me know if you come up with some convincing evidence for your little green men.
 
In the meantime, there's lots of good stuff in my post #4948, which you could engage with if you were serious about any of this.
 
You and I both know it's not baseless. It's a nervous tic. You've picked it up from Magical Realist.
Claiming god-like powers of mind reading then. Noted!
I helpfully provided you with some honest, meaningful fact-based content in post #4953, just above. The only response you could muster was the nervous laugh and the blithe attempt to wave the inconvenient truths aside.
Sounding like Al Gore. Except he actually made it into high profile politics.
Let me know if you come up with some convincing evidence for your little green men.
How many times now have you been pulled up by now for resorting to that intentionally provocative trope? Lots.
Quote me as EVER having posited for 'little green men' as 'UFOnauts'. You can't. You know it. You don't care. Therefore without compunction just shamelessly repeat continually as part of your signature refrain Sad.
 
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