UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Here's a quick summary of the most relevant points I noticed from that document:

• Radar detection from the USS Princeton

Apparently, there were some detections over the week prior to the Fravor incident. There's no established connection between those radar detections and Fravor's "tic tac".

However, apparently the radar operators tasked Fravor and another F/A-18 to investigate a radar trace, which led to the "tic tac" incident.

• E-2C Hawkeye

This is a high-altitude radar surveillance aircraft. The radar operator did not see the reported "tic tac" on his radar until the USS Princeton detected the contact and gave the E-2C a direction to steer its radar.

The detection by the E-2C was not recorded, so we have only the anedotal evidence of the operator to go on. He said that the target was very low above sea level and he initially thought is might be an ocean wave. The trace was very faint. The detected target was also at a very different altitude to that reported by the USS Princeton - a 15000 to 20000 foot difference.

This suggests that the two detections might well be of different objects.

• F/A-18s: Fravor and the other guy in his flight

Fravor launched from the USS Nimitz. He reported being directed by "his air controller" to investigate an unidentified contact (presumably the one from the USS Princeton's radar). The object was reported to be at "slow speed and low altitude".

While enroute to the contact, Fravor reported contact with what he believed were two F/A-18s at an altitude of 15-25 thousand feet.

Fravor reported seeing a "water disturbance" when he was at an altitude of 15,000 feet. He reported that the sea was otherwise calm. At this time he was about 5 to 10 nautical miles away from the location of the reported radar contact. He reported that his "Radar Attack Display" was "clean (no targets)". He decided to fly over the water disturbance.

Fravor reported the disturbance to be "50 to 100 meters in diameter and close to round". [This could be consistent with a shoal of fish near the water surface, perhaps.] As he flew away from the disturbance he reported seeing it clearing and couldn't identify exactly where it had been. He did not report seeing any object or vessel associated with the disturbance initially.

Fravor's description of the disturbance was that it "did not appear as a trail or wake, and looked like frothy waves and foam almost as if the water was boiling". [consistent with a shoal of fish]

Fravor's place did not have FLIR camera. He had a helmet-mounted "lock" system for targeting, but stated that "did not think to use" the helmet's recording capability that day.

Fravor reported seeing the "tic tac" directly above the area of disturbed water. He reported that it was "holding like a Harrier" [i.e. approximately stationary above the water]. He reported its shape as "like an elongated egg or 'tic tac' and had a discernable midline horizontal axis. However, the object was uniformly white across the entire body. It was approximately 46 feet in length".

[I note that the 46 feet is an estimate that Fravor was trying to make by eye from an altitude of above 10,000 feet - the altitude of his plane at the time.]

The other guy in Fravor's plane described the object as "solid white, smooth, with no edges. It was uniformly colored with no nacelles, pylons or wings .... It looked like it had a white candy-coated shell, almost like a white board".

Interestingly, this guy reported that the object was "travelling level at approximately 500-1000 feet at approximately 500 knots", in stark contrast to Fravor's report that it was approximately stationary. Both these guys, recall, were in the same aircraft. Both men reported that the object maintained a consistent altitude. Fravor reported "minor" displacements of the object north-south and east-west.

[Both explanations of its appearance could be consistent with a white sea bird of some kind.]

Fravor decided to descend to get a closer look, taking his plane from 10,000 feet at approximately 350 knots. As he approached, Fravor reported that the object appeared "to recognise us" and to "point" in the direction of Fravor's aircraft; at this time the disturbance in the water ceased. [Maybe the fish were gone and the bird was flying away?]

Fravor pulled his plane up, "ascended quickly" at supersonic speed. Simultaneously, he requested information on any radar contacts from the USS Nimitz. The reply was that the "picture was clean (no contact)". But then the radar operator stated that "you're not going to believe this, its at your CAP", meaning that the "object" have flown a large distance away and climbed to 24,000 feet.

[I note that this reported radar contact has no necessary connection with the "tic tac" that Fravor reported seeing.]

Following this communication, Fravor said he could no longer locate either the "object" nor "the disturbance".

• F/A-18s: Two other guys who launched their F/A-18s after Fravor.

They were instructed by Fravor to take a look at what Fravor thought he saw.

They detected an object on radar, which may not have been in the same location as the object that Fravor reported.

They tried to lock onto the object with their FLIR camera, but the pilot reported that it "just appeared as if the radar couldn't hack it", so they never got a FLIR lock. That meant they could not gauge the object's speed or track with any confidence. The pilot reported guessing that the object was at an altitude of 15-20 thousand feet (which, I note, would be consistent with the object detected by the E-2C, but inconsistent with the object reported by Fravor).

The object was reported to "appear stationary", but it gradually moved out of the FLIR field of view due to motion of the F/A-18.

This was the only contact with an "object" by this crew. The pilot "was clear that he couldn't confirm it was the same object as described by [Fravor's flight]". He only saw an object on the FLIR, never with his own eyes.

• USS Louisville

This is a submarine in the area at the time.

It made no unidentified sonar contacts in the vicinity of Fravor's sighting. It reported "no anomalous undersea activity during this period".

 

Given the summary above, which is taken from the report that Yazata linked, let's consider the strength of the evidence for an "extraordinary craft" from the Fravor incident.

Radar

• The USS Princeton did not detect an object at Fravor's location when Fravor was reporting the "tic tac". Apparently, it did task Fravor's flight to investigate an earlier detection at that approximate location.
• There is no record of any radar detection by the E-2C Hawkeye. The radar operator reported a faint trace that he thought might be a wave, and another target at an altitude of 15000-20000 feet, not coincident with Fravor's sighting.
• The USS Nimitz and other radars detected nothing when requested by Fravor to look for traces at his location as he pulled his plane up and away from the "tic tac".

Sonar

• The USS Louisville submarine detected no unidentified sonar contacts throughout the incident.

The "other" F/A-18

• Reported a object on radar, but not necessarily in the same location as Fravor's sighting and at an altitude estimated by the operator as 15000-20000 feet.
• No record of the detected objects speed or track, but the the operator reported that it appeared stationary.
• No visual contact reported with any "object".

Fravor's F/A-18

• Fravor detected something at an altitude of 15000-25000 feet, before his sighting of the "tic tac".
• Fravor saw a disturbance in the water from an altitude of 15000 feet. He did not detect anything on radar.
• Fravor flew over the disturbance and saw his reported "tic tac". So did the other guy in his plane.
• There was no FLIR on Fravor's plane, and no camera footage of any kind backing up the eyewitness reports.
• Fravor reported that the "tic tac" was stationary, but the other guy in his plane said was travelling at 500 knots.
• Fravor pulled his plane away from the "tic tac" as soon as he thought it "recognised" his plane and "pointed" towards it. Pulling up, he and the other guy lost sight of the object, after which neither of them saw it again.

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In my opinion, this doesn't amount to much. Even Fravor's account of the incident (at the time) doesn't support any miraculous manoeuvering capabilities of any "craft". It doesn't even establish that the "tic tac" was an aircraft of any type. And Fravor's account is the "best" evidence here.

There are some loose ends, of course. There were multiple radar contacts at different times with something at an altitude of 15,000 to 25000 feet, it seems. But none of them can be linked directly to Fravor's "tic tac".

There's no evidence of any "craft" travelling below the water surface at any time, as evidenced by the submarine's failure to detect anything.
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This incident has received a lot of publicity, essentially because Fravor has been out there publicising it, and also because the Pentagon decided to "declassify" it.

My guess is that the Pentagon has a fairly good idea about what the radar contacts might have been, even if they can't be sure what Fravor and his co-pilot saw.
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Given all this, some of the "Key Assessments" in the report that Yazata linked are puzzling:

• The report assesses that the "AAV" (anomalous aerial vehicle) was no known aircraft. This seems to make some dubious assumptions right up front: that there was a "vehicle" and that it was "anomalous". Of course, a bird would qualify as "no known aircraft or air vehicle". There is also the unsupported assumption that all radar contacts represented the same object.
• The assessment that the "AAV exhibited advanced low observable characteristics at multiple radar bands" is true given the facts, but it would be expected in the case of a low-flying bird. The fault here may again be that separate radar contacts were all assumed to refer to the same object.
• The assessment that the "AAV exhibited advanced aerodynamic performance" is not supported, based on the information we have - especially if the separate radar and FLIR contacts were not of the same object.
• Certainly Fravor and the other guy reported "no visible control surfaces" and so on, but they were viewing the object from a long way away and from a much higher altitude.
• The assessment that the "AAV exhibited advanced propulsion capability by demonstrating the ability to remain stationary with little to no variation in altitude" seems like over-reach. Birds do that just fine by flapping their wings. Note that, relative to a jet fighter travelling at 350 knots, a bird is always approximately stationary.
• The assessment that a single "AAV" transitioned "to horizontal and/or vertical velocities far greater than any known aerial vehicle" seems to be entirely unsupported by the evidence.
• The assessment that the "AAV possibly demonstrated the ability to 'cloak'" sounds like the report writers want this to sound mysterious. Yes, it's possible that something "cloaked", but there's no compelling need to draw that conclusion from the available evidence.
• The assessment that the "AAV demonstrated a highly advanced capability to operate undersea" appears, again, to be completely unsupported by any evidence.

 

There were no strange flight characteristics observed. What are you talking about?