More bad news for Republicans - Recession over!

The group which delcares recessions has declared the Great Recession is over much to the chagrin of Republicans, Tea Partiers, and Conservatives every where.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/20/the-recession-is-over-say_n_731450.html

http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

Now what will Republicans, Tea Partiers, et al complain about?

 

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They will think of something. Employment numbers are still terrible.

 

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Right, employment figures are the relevant ones for general political outrage (rather than NBER business-cycle designations) and they are always a strongly-lagging indicator (this also explains why the populist outrage didn't pick up until well after the recession started - people weren't actually out of work in large numbers until months later).

 

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Academic vs. Practical

One of the problems with that consideration, though, is that there is a practical reality juxtaposed to pretty much any academic assertion. In reality, the recession might be "over", but, as Spider and Quad suggest, that reality has yet to trickle down to the proletariat.

As far as the working class and the working middle class are concerned, Shite Creek is still cresting, and nobody has a paddle.

 

It has about as much effect as announcing that it's officially spring on a day when a late season snowstorm has blown in. The fact that it's the equinox, and therefore the day that the season officially changes, doesn't matter in the slightest to the overwhelming majority of people when the weather is still that of winter. I don't think there is time for enough substantive change to take place before the upcoming election to avoid a near mindless venting of misdirected rage and frustration.

 

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Were you actually able to post that with a straight face? Or is this a joke? I think Repo summed up the situation pretty well:

 

Did anyone notice what happened in the stockmarkets after this announcement was made? Stockmarkets were up big time today. The NASDAQ was up 1.74 percent. The Standard and Poors Index was up over 1.5 percent. The news was very good for the economy and investors every where.

This news tells investors the bad times are over. It tells banks and other holders of capital that the risk of putting that money to work in the form of loans and investment is not as great as previously thought.

So in the coming months ahead, banks will be making more loans to businesses. Stockmarkets will continue to rise and the average Joe and Jane is going to start to feel richer. And as more money is put to work, more and more people will become employed. And the average Joe and Jane is going to start to feel that things are getting better. Their 401k's are going to start growing again and their jobs are going become more secure and more and more employers are going to start hiring. This is indeed very good news.

And let me quote from the press release:

"The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."

These NBER fellows are pretty analytical folks. So if the public has a different perception which is the case, it is not because of the facts of the matter. It is because of the politics of the matter. Employment, as has been stated many times before, is a lagging indicator. It is the last economic number to show improvement when the economy turns for the better.

http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/economic_ind.htm

The question is will the improvements in the economy be recognized by mainstreet before the election this fall? This is a potential threat to Republican attempts to retake the House and Senate this fall.

 

Yes, the U-3 Unemployment is still at 9.7%

The housing supply is spiking........


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/08/housing_markets_3

What trouble looks like

Aug 24th 2010, 14:29 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

THERE is no getting around the terrible, terrible existing home
sales report that came out this morning. A bad figure was
expected in the wake of the housing tax credit's expiration,
and a bad figure is what markets got. Sales fell to an annual
rate under 4 million in July, hitting the lowest level since 1996.
But here is the ugliest figure you'll see today

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125 Banks failed so far this year;


Following are the banks that have failed thus far in 2010. Estimated cost to the deposit insurance fund in parentheses.

125. Maritime Savings Bank, West Allis, WI, September 17
124. Bramble Savings Bank, Milford, OH, September 17
123. The Peoples Bank, Winder, GA, September 17
122. First Commerce Community Bank, Douglasville, GA, September 17
121. Bank of Ellijay, Elijay, GA, September 17
120. ISN Bank, Cherry Hill, NJ, September 17
119. Horizon Bank, Bradenton, FL, September 10
118. Sonoma Valley Bank, Sonoma, CA, August 20
117. Los Padres Bank, Solvang, CA, August 20
116. Butte Community Bank, Chico, CA, August 20
115. Pacific State Bank, Stockton, CA, August 20
114. ShoreBank, Chicago, IL, August 20
113. Imperial Savings & Loan Association, Martinsville , VA, August 20
112. Independent National Bank, Ocala, FL, August 20
111. Community National Bank of Bartow, Bartow, FL, August 20
110. Palos Bank and Trust Company, Palos Heights, IL, August 13
109. Ravenswood Bank, Chicago, IL, August 6
108. LibertyBank, Eugene, OR, July 30
107. The Cowlitz Bank, Longview, WA, July 30
106. Coastal Community Bank, Panama City, FL, July 30
105. Bayside Savings Bank, Port Saint Joe, FL, July 30
104. NorthWest Bank & Trust, Acworth, GA, July 30
103. Home Valley Bank, Grants Pass, OR, July 23 ($37.1 million)
102. SouthwestUSA Bank, Las Vegas, NV, July 23 ($74.1 million)
101. Community Security Bank, New Prague, MN, July 23 ($18.6 million)
100. Thunder Bank, Sylvan Grove, KS, July 23 ($4.5 million)
99. Williamsburg First National Bank, Kingstree, SC, July 23 ($8.8 million)
98. Crescent Bank and Trust Company, Jasper, GA, July 23 ($242.4 million)
97. Sterling Bank, Lantana, FL, July 23 ($45.5 million)
96. Mainstreet Savings Bank, Hastings, MI, July 16
95. Olde Cypress Community Bank, Clewiston, FL, July 16
94. Turnberry Bank, Aventura, FL, July 16
93. Metro Bank of Dade County, Miami, FL, July 16
92. First National Bank of the South, Spartanburg, SC, July 16
91. Woodlands Bank, Bluffton, SC, July 16
90. Home National Bank, Blackwell, OK, July 9
89. USA Bank, Port Chester, NY, July 9
88. Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD, July 9
87. Bay National Bank, Baltimore, MD, July 9
86. High Desert State Bank, Albuquerque, NM, June 25
85. First National Bank - GA, Savannah, GA, June 25
84. Peninsula Bank, Englewood, FL, June 25
83. Nevada Security Bank, Reno, NV, June 18
82. Washington First International Bank, Seattle, WA, June 11
81. TierOne Bank, Lincoln, NE, June 4 ($297.8 million)
80. Arcola Homestead Savings Bank, Arcola, IL, June 4 ($3.2 million)
79. First National Bank, Rosedale, MS, June 4 ($12.6 million)
78. Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, NV, May 28
77. Granite Community Bank, NA, Granite Bay, CA, May 28
76. Bank of Florida - Tampa Bay, Tampa, FL, May 28
75. Bank of Florida - Southwest, Naples, FL, May 28
74. Bank of Florida - Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, FL, May 28
73. Pinehurst Bank, St. Paul, MN, May 21 ($6 million)
72. Midwest Bank & Trust Company, Elmwood Park, IL, May 14
71. Southwest Community Bank, Springfield, MO, May 14
70. New Liberty Bank, Plymouth, MI, May 14
69. Satilla Community Bank, St. Marys, GA, May 14
68. 1st Pacific Bank of California, San Diego, CA, May 7 ($87.7 million)
67. Towne Bank of Arizona, Mesa, AZ, May 7 ($41.8 million)
66. Access Bank, Champlin, MN, May 7 ($5.5 million)
65. The Bank of Bonifay, Bonifay, FL, May 7 ($78.7 million)
64. Frontier Bank, Everett, WA, April 30
63. BC National Banks, Butler, MO, April 30 ($11.4 million)
62. Champion Bank, Creve Coeur, MO, April 30 ($52.7 million)
61. CF Bancorp, Port Huron, MI, April 30 ($615.3 million)
60. Westernbank Puerto Rico, Mayaquez, PR, April 30 ($3.3 billion)
59. R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, PR, April 30 ($1.2 billion)
58. Eurobank, San Juan, PR, April 30 ($743.9 million)
57. Wheatland Bank, Naperville, IL, April 23 ($133 million)
56. Peotone Bank and Trust Company, Peotone, IL, April 23 ($31.7 million)
55. Lincoln Park Savings Bank, Chicago, IL, April 23 ($48.4 million)
54. New Century Bank, Chicago, IL, April 23 ($125.3 million)
53. Citizens Bank&Trust Company of Chicago, Chicago, IL, April 23 ($20.9 million)
52. Broadway Bank, Chicago, IL, April 23 ($394.3 million)
51. Amcore Bank, Rockford, IL, April 23 ($220.3 million)
50. City Bank, Lynnwood, WA, April 16
49. Tamalpais Bank, San Rafael, CA, April 16
48. Innovative Bank, Oakland, CA, April 16
47. Butler Bank, Lowell, MA, April 16
46. Riverside National Bank of Florida, Fort Pierce, FL, April 16
45. AmericanFirst Bank, Clermont, FL, April 16
44. First Federal Bank of North Florida, Palatka, FL, April 16
43. Lakeside Community Bank, Sterling Heights, MI, April 16
42. Beach First National Bank, Myrtle Beach, SC, April 9 ($130.3 million)
41. Desert Hills Bank, Phoenix, AZ, March 26
40. Unity National Bank, Cartersville, GA, March 26
39. Key West Bank, Key West, FL, March 26
38. McIntosh Commercial Bank, Carrolton, GA, March 26
37. State Bank of Aurora, Aurora, MN, March 19 ($4.2 million).
36. First Lowndes Bank, Fort Deposit, AL, March 19 ($38.3 million).
35. Bank of Hiawassee, Hiawassee, GA, March 19 (137.7 million).
34. Appalachian Community Bank, Ellijay, GA, March 19 ($419.3 million).
33. Advanta Bank Corp., Draper, UT, March 19 ($635.6 million).
32. Century Security Bank, Duluth, GA, March 19 ($29.9 million).
31. American National Bank, Parma, OH, March 19 ($17.1 million).
30. Statewide Bank, Covington, LA, March 12 ($38.1 million).
29. Old Southern Bank, Orlando, FL, March 12 ($94.6 million).
28. Park Avenue Bank, New York, NY, March 12 ($50.7 million).
27. LibertyPointe Bank, New York, NY, March 11 ($24.8 million).
26. Centennial Bank, Ogden, UT, March 5 ($96.3 million).
25. Waterfield Bank, Germantown, MD, March 5 ($51 million).
24. Bank of Illinois, Normal, IL, March 5 ($53.7 million).
23. Sun American Bank, Boca Raton, FL, March 5 ($103.8 million).
22. Rainier Pacific Bank, Tacoma, WA, February 26 ($95.2 million).
21. Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, NV, February 26 ($7.9 million).
20. La Jolla Bank, FSB, La Jolla, CA, February 19 ($882.3 million).
19. George Washington Savings Bank, Orland Park, IL, February 19 ($141.4 million).
18. The La Coste National Bank, La Coste, TX, February 19 ($3.7 million).
17. Marco Community Bank, Marco Island, FL, February 19 ($38.1 million).
16. 1st American State Bank of Minnesota, Hancock, MN, February 5 ($3.1 million).
15. Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia, GA, January 29 ($354.5 million).
14. First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, CA, January 29 ($825.5 million).
13. American Marine Bank, Bainbridge Island, WA, January 29 ($58.9 million).
12.First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, GA, January 29 ($260.4 million).
11. Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, FL, January 29 ($352.6 million).
10. Marshall Bank, Hallock, MN, January 29, ($4.1 million).
9. Columbia River Bank, The Dalles, OR, January 22, ($172.5 million).
8. Evergreen Bank, Seattle, WA, January 22, ($64.2 million).
7. Charter Bank, Santa Fe, NM, January 22, ($201.9 million).
6. Bank of Leeton, Leeton, MO, January 22, ($8.1 million).
5. Premier American Bank, Miami, FL, January 22, ($85 million).
4. Barnes Banking Company, Kaysville, UT, January 15.
3. St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, MN, January 15.
2. Town Community Bank & Trust, Antioch, IL, January 15.
1. Horizon Bank, Bellingham, WA, January 8.

Read more: http://failuremag.com/index.php/failure_analysis/article/failed_bank_list_2010/#ixzz10BJNGLx0

And we have someone declaring that the recession is over?

 

Things are going to suck for a while. Thanks Georgie.

 

No, 23 months into Obama's administration........45 months since the Democrats took control of congress........thanks are not just for George alone.

 

Recession started in Dec, 2007. Things are just now turning around due to the stimulus.

 

Right, George Bush SINGLE HANDEDLY caused a World Wide Recession.

Are you nuts?

 

Sometimes, I think Joe works for Obama. Other times ... well, I don't know what to think.

Either way, wages are down, there are no jobs, people have worthless homes with high mortgages, their purchasing power has been sapped and they have huge debts. And this says nothing about the larger issues facing the government and its management of taxes and the economy. Things don't look good, no matter what some people are pushing.

 

Republican policies did, they always do.

 

Yes, December 2007, and the Democrats had been in control of Congress for 12 months.

Remember they were sworn in January 2007, and in that year what did they do to stop the coming depression.

As the Democrats took over congress;

01/05/2007 the National Debt was $8,673,152,446,066.83......and by;

12/31/2007 the National Debt stood at $9,229,172,659,218.31.......yes what did your precious democrats do to stop the depression?

 

Right, so it can't be their fault.

 

It's no one president or one party's fault. The economic meltdown is a combition of social trends, bad political leadership, American hubris and the transitions globalization have wrought. Persisting in a juvenile blame-game only impedes the country's ability to figure out what the hell it should do to get back on track.

 

And who is obstructing Wall Street reform, Tax reform, Small Business legislation, and extending unemployment? Republicans!!! They are busy working for the rich. The Republicans do not care about figuring out how to get us back on track, they just want to win and get back to serving their exclusive clientele.

 

Still having trouble with counting I see. President Obama has been in office for 20 months...one of those pesky details mr. roam.

 

I just posted that Wall Street donated more to Dems this year than Republicans, so you're just repeating a tired myth (one that gets in the way of real reform) that one party cares while the other does not. Obama's financial advisors are all Wall Street snakes and many were responsible for the evaporation of regulation in the 1990s. The truth is neither party cares.

Meanwhile, no one person or party invented greed, globalization or the advances in technology that helped destroy certain industries.