Will oil price go up to $100/barrel?

youreyes said:
Its not a question of will, but a question of when. Right now would be a great time to invest in BNO, but...one would have to wait 2 years for it to return back to 40 USD from current 15 USD per stock, which of course depends on price per barrel worldwide. With recent slashes by numerous countries in oil production, this will happen.
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I suggest you put your money, what little you may have, where your mouth is. You should by shares of BNO. I don't suppose you have any rationale for your thesis? One more thing, BNO is an ETF (i.e. exchange traded fund). A share is not equal to a barrel of oil. I know you and your buddy Putina are hoping for a return of expensive oil, but it isn't in the cards.

The OPEC-non OPEC deal seems to be holding. No one has cheated yet, but it's still very early.
 
joepistole said:
I suggest you put your money, what little you may have, where your mouth is. You should by shares of BNO. I don't suppose you have any rationale for your thesis? One more thing, BNO is an ETF (i.e. exchange traded fund). A share is not equal to a barrel of oil. I know you and your buddy Putina are hoping for a return of expensive oil, but it isn't in the cards.

The OPEC-non OPEC deal seems to be holding. No one has cheated yet, but it's still very early.
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Let it be known to Sciforums members that a trustworthy member of our community has bet against BNO going up in foreseeble future.

On Jan 4 at 8pm EST BNO was at 15.54 USD.

We shall return here in one month from now, 6 months from now, 1 year from now, and 2 years from now to check on BNO stock price to settle the ash.
 
Russ_Watters said:
Perhaps in the short to near term. There is inertia in the market in that it will take a while to ramp production back up. So if OPEC does a good job (unlikely) they could cause a short spike until the fracked oil ramps back up.
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Agree that there can be spikes and troughs due to short term demand and supply disruptions. But long term, the basic cost of production should hold it at or under $70 a barrel for 5-10 years.
 
youreyes said:
Let it be known to Sciforums members that a trustworthy member of our community has bet against BNO going up in foreseeble future.

On Jan 4 at 8pm EST BNO was at 15.54 USD.

We shall return here in one month from now, 6 months from now, 1 year from now, and 2 years from now to check on BNO stock price to settle the ash.
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Who is this trustworthy member? Did you not understand? As previously pointed out to you, and should have been evident by the OP and subsequent discussion, this was about the price of oil per barrel. It wasn't about the per share price of some oil based ETF which isn't even close to the per barrel price of oil.

The consensus expectation is oil will trade in the mid 50 dollar range this year, based on expected production and expected demand. As previously pointed out, that can change. That expectation is based on a number of assumptions that may or may not hold true. The OPEC-non OPEC deal may not hold. Participants may cheat. The US may produce more than expected. Trump's huge fiscal spending plan may get enacted faster than expected. Trump may get himself stuck in a trade war. All of those things would affect the price of oil.

No one here, including you, has a crystal ball. We cannot know the future with certitude. So for you to act like you can is dishonest and you shouldn't go around telling people to do things, i.e. invest their money, based upon things you cannot know. If you are going to make a prediction there should be some evidence and reason behind it, and you have yet to provide such a reason.
 
joepistole said:
Who is this trustworthy member? Did you not understand? As previously pointed out to you, and should have been evident by the OP and subsequent discussion, this was about the price of oil per barrel. It wasn't about the per share price of some oil based ETF which isn't even close to the per barrel price of oil.
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The chart refers to CLJ17.NYM which represents the most current price of light sweet crude oil vs BNO. Do you not see an obvious correlation in price between the two? Do you not see an obvious moving average increasing for the two?

Refer to:

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/CLJ...lIjoiMWQiLCJhbGxvd0NoYXJ0U3RhY2tpbmciOnRydWV9
 
When will electrical cars dominate the market and drastically cut the demand for oil?
 
Saint said:
When will electrical cars dominate the market and drastically cut the demand for oil?
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Good question; I don't know that anyone has the answer at this point. It depends on costs and technology. The automous car will change how we look at transportation. Instead of owning cars as we do today, people may rent them.

Instead of renting by the day as it's done today, people will rent cars by the minute. People will only pay for the time they actually use cars.
 
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Saint said:
When will electrical cars dominate the market and drastically cut the demand for oil?
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Probably never. I see EV's penetrating to something less than 50%. They will be used by people who want cleaner, higher performance, better driving cars, while people who want cheap, long-distance cars will stick to gasoline. The biggest impact will come from pluggable hybrids, which share characteristics of both.
 
You need to stop pulling shit out of your ass and trying to pass it off as something intelligent comrade.

Just because your beloved Mother Russia needs high oil prices, it doesn't follow that the oil markets will accommodate her.

The fact is there are a number of long term trends working against oil. It's not just electric cars.

Most major oil exporters have prepared for it. Russia is the exception. Russia hasn't been planning for the end of big oil, and now it has managed to get its privates stuck in a wringer. It hasn't prepared for the end of big oil.

http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/is-peak-oil-demand-in-sight
 
Why does Venezuela have more problems than Russia and other oil exporting countries due to oil price plunge?
 
Saint said:
Why does Venezuela have more problems than Russia and other oil exporting countries due to oil price plunge?
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Chavez was poisoned by overseas operatives due to his inability to secure himself. After fall of true management and leadership as Joepistole has said, Venezuela started succumbing to bad management tactics and overall too heavy reliance on oil took its toll. Lesson of the day? Diversification and High Security Measures.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/13/chavez-poisoned_n_2866555.html
 
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joepistole said:
You need to stop pulling shit out of your ass and trying to pass it off as something intelligent comrade.

Just because your beloved Mother Russia needs high oil prices, it doesn't follow that the oil markets will accommodate her.

The fact is there are a number of long term trends working against oil. It's not just electric cars.

Most major oil exporters have prepared for it. Russia is the exception. Russia hasn't been planning for the end of big oil, and now it has managed to get its privates stuck in a wringer. It hasn't prepared for the end of big oil.

http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/is-peak-oil-demand-in-sight
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Skipping personal attacks. End of oil? There are untapped resources in Arctic and fracking giving us a multitude of ways to keep pumping.

Stanford's study estimates >50 million barrels of oil in Arctic and prices of $115 per barrel in 2030. Or...Stanford is also pro-Putin?

link: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph240/urban2/

Now, McKinsey and their advices, I encourage you to read an insider's view of the company and their malpractices:

Is there an example on the other side? That is, strategy from McKinsey that was undisputedly theirs and undisputedly a failure?

I think that would be Enron. That company’s CEO, Jeff Skilling, who’s now serving time in prison, was ex-McKinsey, and so much about how Enron fell apart was due to ideas that Skilling brought over from McKinsey and that McKinsey celebrated at Enron—emphasizing vision over execution, a ruthless human resources policy that resulted in excessive employee churn, as well as more prosaic issues like off-balance-sheet financing and securitization. They’re certainly not immune to buying their own B.S.

http://business.time.com/2013/09/10/mass-layoffs-overpaid-ceos-blame-mckinsey/
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So...you are advocating to follow an advice on "Peak Oil" from a company like McKinsey which was behind Enron....and we all know what happened to Enron.
 
youreyes said:
Chavez was poisoned by overseas operatives due to his inability to secure himself. After fall of true management and leadership as Joepistole has said, Venezuela started succumbing to bad management tactics and overall too heavy reliance on oil took its toll. Lesson of the day? Diversification and High Security Measures.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/13/chavez-poisoned_n_2866555.html
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LOL...more Russian fake news. Chavez wasn't poisoned.

Chavez had been mortally ill for years. His death wasn't unexpected. He suffered from colon cancer and had a massive heart attack. He wasn't poisoned. Chavez had traveled to Cuba for treatment, but ultimately he lost his fight against cancer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Chávez#Death
 
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