Will Greece Default on it's debt?

Will Greece Default on it's debt?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 79.2%
  • No

    Votes: 5 20.8%

  • Total voters
    24

Michael

歌舞伎
Valued Senior Member
Simple question: Will the Greeks default on their debt?


If so, and I think they will, what will this mean for the rest of the World economy? In particular, what will the Italians do when their number is up? The Portuguese? The Spanish? It should be noted that, the Icelandic seem to be doing just fine :)
 
None of the economists on the BBC today knew what would be the result of a Greek default, so I'm certainly not going to pretend to. I think the worst fear is that it could trigger a chain reaction similar to the 2008 banking crisis. Which is enough to cause many sleepless nights I'm sure.

I really don't know what to think about the rioters. The impression I got from many of the protesters interviewed is that they feel that the loans that put the country in this position had little to no benefit for them, whereas the austerity measures will directly affect them, in very negative ways. One woman who was protesting was complaining to the BBC reporter that the protests were being dominated by anarchists who seem to amount to professional protesters. It just seems like a bad situation all around.
 
Simple question: Will the Greeks default on their debt?


If so, and I think they will, what will this mean for the rest of the World economy? In particular, what will the Italians do when their number is up? The Portuguese? The Spanish? It should be noted that, the Icelandic seem to be doing just fine :)
They probably will if they don't get another bail out . How bout America ? are we going to default ? Probably not . Raise the debt ceiling and watch our dollars buy less and less goods
 
Greece should dump the Euro and devalue the Drachma. It would send the Eurozone into blind panic, but I don't care serves them right for pretending a one-size-fits-all economy could work across such a diverse range of countries. They were told this would happen, and is why Britain never joined. It's corrupt and should be allowed to fail and sovreign states can revert to their own currency like common sense would suggest.
It's only europride that holds it together. You think this is bad? Wait till Spain goes bust, then this will look like pocketmoney.
 
They probably will if they don't get another bail out . How bout America ? are we going to default ? Probably not . Raise the debt ceiling and watch our dollars buy less and less goods
America is different, we print the "money" :) Sure, everyone's savings are being totally obliterated. What do you expect? Politicians have to promise a lot of bullshit to your average uninformed ignorant voter to get elected (that and crap on about abortion versus women's rights) :shrug: Hell, half those voters are on welfare anyway. They needs them some money ;)
 
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Greece should dump the Euro and devalue the Drachma. It would send the Eurozone into blind panic, but I don't care serves them right for pretending a one-size-fits-all economy could work across such a diverse range of countries. They were told this would happen, and is why Britain never joined. It's corrupt and should be allowed to fail and sovreign states can revert to their own currency like common sense would suggest.
It's only europride that holds it together. You think this is bad? Wait till Spain goes bust, then this will look like pocketmoney.
I totally agree and I'm greatly looking forward to see how the Spanish and Italians respond to "austerity measures". Ha! Maybe Italy will sell Sicily?!?


On a side note, I was shocked and saddened by the Irish. They literally rolled over and took it up the arse.
On another side note, did you know in ancient Japan that "bankers" could have their head removed for insolence - literally, bankers would grovel in the mud at any samurai who happened by (as in bury their face in the mud/dirt at the sight of a samurai). Bankers/lenders were the bottom of the social hierarchy (well, one step above beggar, two below farmer). The Chinese were especially sickened by lenders (at some times in their history, at other times they used fiat currency). I remember reading about the Chinese views on Muslims (who, at that time (in the north west), were lending money at interest). Which is ironic, as now many Muslims think lending at interest is "unislamic". It wasn't then. Which tell us something doesn't it? One big circle jerk is going on here.
Didn't Roman Emperor's always start their reign by wiping free all debts?
Didn't English monarchs use a wooden stick to mark off debt (if I remember correctly those tally sticks were the longest "in use" currency - ever!)
 
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They are in deep do do because they aren't cutting enough "fat" to really bring down their expenses over the coming years with their new "austerity" program they voted on yesterday. Today they could make even more cuts where they are needed NOW but I'll bet they won't They are trying to spread out the changes over the coming 5 years or so but that means they will be running in the red until those measures and more, that I hope they will pass today, take affect. That means they will continue to ask for bailouts until all of their plans are in effect which doesn't show that they are doing enough soon enough to help themselves. They should cut quicker and get done with it because the sooner they do that , the sooner they can start the recovery and rebuilding of their economy.
 
The EU need to make a sensible deal with Greece straight away and at least halve their debt.
They are a poor country.
Not even a major country could deal with the degree of debt Greece owes.

Greek Ratio of debt to GDP is 155% and set to rise.

US Debt is at just over 100%.
Mostly caused by the encouragement of, sorry I meant war on, Terror.
UK and other major European Countries are at 80% to 90%
 
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The EU need to make a sensible deal with Greece straight away and halve their debt.
No country could deal with the degree of debt Greece owes.

But Greece shouldn't make all the rest of the EU pay for its outrageous spending and out of control government payroll either.
 
From my now in the cesspool thread,



After Greeks fought for and won independence from the Ottomon Empire the "international Community" AKA the respect demanding International Mafia (British, French, Russian and Prussian governments forced Greece to appoint a German member of the international royal family as King of Greece to make sure that the new Greek nation would be subservient colony to the political and financial interests of politically active oligarchs that were the ruling force behind the Great European Kingdoms and Democracies.

Eventually the USA joined the club and became it's dominant member.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_military_junta_of_1967–1974

Below from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...hplace-centre-of-Greek-heritage-sale-row.html
A suggestion by German MPs last year that Greece should sell off some of its islands or even the Acropolis to pay its debt infruiated Greeks. Rumours that Qatari sheikhs and Russian oligarchs were being lined up to buy on Corfu has incensed the locals.


Below from: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-06-19/news/29674545_1_greeks-greece-elgin-marbles
Greeks carry the burden of a history of colonisation and plunder. Scratch the surface of any allegedly corrupt and lazy Greek official and that marble chip on the shoulder — even the public dustbins in Greece are made of marble — is fairly obvious.

Greece, as a nation and civilisation, believes it has been shortchanged through modern history by the rest of Europe. And, therefore, many Greeks have an interesting take on the debt crisis their country faces: it's payback time. Goldman Sachs helped Greece, just as it helped others, con a lot of investors.

Goldman gave Greeks lessons on massaging national accounts statistics that were considered holy financial practice before the crisis. If you are now warned off Greeks bearing bonds, well, Goldman made the Trojan Horse. But for many Greeks, all that happened was in, some ways, payback period for thousands of years of exploitation — first by the Romans, then by the Turks, then by the Germans, the Americans, and now by the international financial community, led by Germany and the EU.

It is unlikely, however much Angela Merkel frets and the IMF fumes, that the average Greek citizen will accept or understand the international community's diktats.

They just don't work that way, and there's too much negative history for them to forgive. Northern Europe and the Anglo-American nexus, in many ways, have never understood Greece — and maybe never will. So everybody who could, made money while the credit flowed. Sounds familiar? Greeks are not prepared to live on bread and water like the IMF and Germany want them to do — they think they've already done that for centuries so northern Europe can. The Greeks are being told to sell their historical sites and islands. Ouch. Would we sell the Taj Mahal if the IMF told us?


Below from: http://roarmag.org/2011/06/roar-on-bbc-world-dont-blame-the-greeks/
MYTH #1: The Greeks are profligate

The unquestioned assumption in the international media is that the Greek debt crisis was caused by excessive state expenditure, an overburdened welfare state and an inflated public sector.

TRUTH #1: The Greek welfare state is actually anemic

Here are the facts:

Public spending: according to the Center for American Progress, public spending in Greece is only 44.6% of GDP. This is lower than the EU average, lower than Germany’s 46.6% and considerably lower than Sweden’s 55%.
Tax collection: the real problem is not social expenditure on the poor but the lack of tax collection from the rich. From 2001 to 2007, Greece collected only an average of 39.4% of GDP in taxes, compared to the EU 44.4% average.
MYTH #2: The Greeks are lazy

Another unquestioned assumption is that the Greeks don’t work enough — they retire at 50, take crazy amounts of paid holidays and lie around in the sun drinking ouzo most of the day. Angela Merkel, for example, recently called on the people of southern Europe to “work more, play less“, i.e. work more hours, retire earlier and take less holidays.

TRUTH #2: The Greeks actually work most of all Europeans

Here are the facts:

Hours worked per week: According to Eurostat data of 2005, the Greeks worked 43.1 hours per week (compared to 35.7 hours in so-called ‘thrifty’ Germany, with its much-touted ‘Protestant work ethic’).
Hours worked per year: More recent OECD data shows the Greeks to work an average of 2,119 hours per year — 690 hours more than the average German, 467 more than the average Brit and 356 more than the OECD average. In fact, out of all OECD countries, only the Koreans work more.
Amount of paid holidays: The paid leave entitlement in Greece is 23 days per year. This is actually below the EU average, and significantly lower than the minimum of 28 days in the UK and 30 (!) days in Germany.
Retirement age: Again, Eurostat data from 2005, shows the average age of exit from the labour force in Greece to be 61.7. This was higher than in Germany, France or Italy and higher than the EU27 average. It is being raised even further now as a part of the EU-IMF bailout conditions.
MYTH #3: The Greeks are spoilt

In a truly terrible piece of journalism earlier this week, Sean O’Grady (economics editor of The Independent) wrote that “for many in northern Europe, the rioting in Athens must remind them of a tantrum by a spoilt child.” He refers specifically to popular opposition to the cutting of the so-called “13th and 14th salary” as a key indicator of this ‘spoiltness’.

TRUTH #3: The Greeks suffer more than anyone else

Here are the facts:

According to Eurostat, even before crisis, in 2008, one in five Greeks (among them almost half a million children) lived under the formal poverty line of 500 euros per month.
An independent survey by Kapa Research and the London School of Economics found even worse data: a third of the Greek population now live in formal poverty (and mind you: this was in 2007 – it’s actually gotten a lot worse since as a result of these draconian austerity measures).
Every child in Greece is born with a 40,000 euro debt on their name.
Greece’s youth are now referred to in the country as Generation 700: because that’s the maximum monthly wage that young Greeks will typically make – that is, if they are lucky enough to find a job: according to the Financial Times, over 35 percent of young Greeks is out of work right now.
The so-called 13th and 14th salaries (Christmas, Easter and summer bonuses) are not additional salaries. As a Greek reader on this blog, Amalia, pointed out: “Greeks do not get two extra salaries a year; their annual salary is simply divided by 14 and they get two installments at Christmas, one and half at Easter and one and a half sometime in the summer.”
The Dutch get a 13th month worth of salary and Austria has a 14th month. Since these countries are not experiencing a similar budget crisis, this simply can’t be the cause of Greece’s debt.
The bottomline is: it doesn’t matter in how many installments you receive your salary (whether it’s in 12, 13, 14 or 2,000 parts); what matters is your annual salary. As long as you make less than 6,000 euros a year (as is the case for 20 percent of Greeks) you live in poverty — period.
Living costs in Greece are the highest of all of Europe.
As a result of this lethal combination of low wages and high living costs, millions of Greeks are forced to work two or three jobs just to survive.
Since last year’s bailout, the Greek economy contracted almost 5%, 50,000 to 65,000 business have been closed, unemployment increased by 400,000, industrial activity declined by 11%, the construction sector contracted by 73%. Partly as a result, suicide rates are reported to have nearly tripled.
All in all, this is a humanitarian tragedy of unprecedented proportions. How could Mr. O’Brady possibly keep a straight face arguing that the people experiencing all of the above, are somehow spoilt children?
MYTH #4 — the bailout is helping the Greek people

Part of O’Brady’s logic assumes that the Greeks should actually be grateful for receiving EU money in return for austerity measures. After all, EU taxpayers are footing the bill for the failures of the Greek people, no?

TRUTH #4: — it’s an indirect subsidy for Europe’s insolvent banks

Here are the facts:

First of all, the bailout is not a handout: the Greek people don’t actually benefit from the EU-IMF bailout. Even if the bailout money really did go to the Greeks, this wouldn’t necessarily be beneficial for the Greek people at all. After all, the bailout is a loan for which the EU and IMF charge an exorbitant 8 percent interest rate, meaning northern European tax payers and the IMF should make a handsome profit from their so-called ‘rescue aid’, while the Greeks will only be further indebted by it.
The bailout serves not Greece but Europe’s insolvent banks: as former IMF Chief Economist Kenneth Rogoff pointed out last year already, “a lot of European banks are insolvent.” The real problem of the European crisis isn’t the fiscal crisis in the periphery, it’s the financial crisis in the banking sector of the core.
Private bank exposure to Greek sovereign debt: BNP Paribas: 5bn – 7 percent of equity; Société Générale: 2,5bn – 6 percent of equity; Postbank: 1,2bn – 21 percent of equity; Kommerzbank: 2,9bn – 27 percent of total equity. That’s just a handful. More data here.
Central Bank exposure to Greek debt: the European Central Bank has 190bn of exposure to Greek debt.
ECB close to insolvency: according to a recent report by Open Europe, asset losses as small as 4.25% could tip the ECB into insolvency. Greek default alone would chip 2.35% to 3.47% off of the ECB’s capital base. Add in a Portuguese or Irish default and you have the European Central Bank – the flagship of European capitalism – literally going bankrupt.
But no one really seems to care about Europe’s ailing banks and the ECB. Indeed, hardly anyone is talking about it. Instead, we prefer to talk about the handful of Greek workers who retire at 50, the ‘spoilt children’ who refuse to accept the EU’s generous aid packages.

By narrowly channeling our ire onto the suffering people of Greece, we have completely lost sight of the infinitely larger structural problems we face in the European Union. Our private banks are insolvent. Our central bank is on the verge of bankruptcy. This is the real crisis.

Yet apparently, in all this misery and chaos, bashing the Greeks seems like an infinitely more enjoyable pastime for Europe’s populist politicians and the factually illiterate international media. It’s time we put these lies to an end and start speaking truth.


The "International community"/(international Mafa) had wanted to plunder Argentina but Venezuela/Cavez interfered. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring


Bubbles and their crashes benefit those with stable access to credit as the booms and busts help these people to buy low and sell high. Without Booms and Busts it is difficult to know what is "low" and what is "high". During busts small businesses and small nations find it difficult to get access to credit on decent terms but giant financial firms and big governments have access to credit and can buy low.

There is a game that the US government, companies like Goldman and Citigroup, the IMF and World Bank, defense contractors, and companies like Bechtel have played with corrupt smaller governments. The World Bank promotes development, loans are made with financial firms earning commissions or interest and the officers of the corrupt government give commissions to themselves and their friends. Companies like Bechtel and defense contractors which bribe (campaign contributions) the US government then take the lent money and US taxpayer funded aid money to give/sell the corrupt small country at artificially inflated prices weapons or dams or financial consultancy or subsidized corn or whatever which the small country did not really need. Then as the debt mounts should the small nation ever displease international powers by flirting with socialism or flirting with honesty or if the free market turns negative on that nation on it's own the powers and their IMF tool will then try to make the crashing nation crash even further so that the politically connected buyers of assets can buy at prices that are too low. And the powers will try to keep the free market competition from competing with the politically connected buyers.

Empires whether the British empire of the 1800s or the "International Community's New World Order Global financial Empire" tend to make both their own average citizen and the colonized people poorer as they tax their own people to pay for the force needed to induce the colonized people to transfer their resources to the colonizers at below market value.

The feudal capitalists privatize opportunity and socialize risk and need big government to help them do this. They pretend to be free market capitalists while they try to subvert free markets and they pretend to be concerned with the social well being of the masses while they try to stamp out as much socialism as they can.

Politically connected firms probably are already telling the German, French, British and American governments as well as the EU and IMF and corrupt Greek politicians which Greek assets they want and what below market price they want to pay for them.

But if the German, other EU and American firms think they we be the beneficiaries of the looting of Greek assets at below market prices they should take note of other recent national financial crises that had them drooling in anticipation. The Russian political insider Oligarchs not Wall Street were the ones who got to loot the Russians when the Soviet government assets were sold off. Carlos Slim had access to credit during the Mexican Peso Crisis and went bargain hunting and then Carlos Slim's group won the bid for the Mexican Government's telephone monopoly. Even if the bid was not rigged Carlos clearly underpaid for the monopoly because he was able to raise rates. Carlos Slim used this control of a monopoly to become the worlds richest man. In Iraq the Western oil companies were told which company would get which piece of Iraq but the political situation in Iraq never allowed the US government to make good on those promises. In Argentina the financial crises had Argentina set up for a IMF organized looting but women beating pots and pans scared the Argentine government into resisting the IMF and then Chavez used Venezuela's money to allow Argentina to escape being looted by global capitalists.

In Yugoslavia the Germany and the USA backed the Solvenian independence movement and Milosevic and Tudjman as they set about taking advantage of ethnic differences to destroy Yugoslavia. Only later did Milosevic have a falling out with his international backers. I don't know how the looting of Yugoslavia worked out for it's international sponsors. I hear Tudjman's cronies got very rich while average Croatians became poorer.

Greeks have historic ties to Serbia. Greeks never bought the Nato, version of the Balkan war storyline.

Whether the Greek people allow their corrupt politicians to make new bad deals with the masters of "International community" remains to be seen. I don't think the Greeks, even wealthier Greeks will ever buy into the IMF and ECB as being institutions that should be trusted.

Below from: http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...-on-imf-33-favors-changes-through-revolution/
64% (of Greeks) considers as possible the scenario that the country will go bankrupt.

The negative public mood is been very clearly mirrored in a public poll by Public Issue that was broadcasted last night by private television SKAI.

53% wish re-negotiation of the debt

Only 17% believe, the MoU implementation should continue and another 17% ask ‘the country should declare default towards its lenders”.

62% believes the MoU harmed the country and just 13% answers, it helped it.

69% believe the MoU wasn’t “one way street”.

40% declare that more than 20 years will be needed to face the public debt.

Who’s to blame?
98% gives the responsibiblity for the public debt to the Greek governments!

89% helds as responsible also the speculators, 70% the Greek Banks, 67% the big EU member countries and 60% the foreign banks.

To the question “What the reason for deficit and debt?” …

33% answered “the politicians”, 21% “the governments”, 13% “mismanagement and corruption” and 11% “the Greeks themselves”.

77% and 80″ said they didn’t trust the Prime Minister (77%) and the Finance Minister (80%) can solve the economic crisis.

IMF & DSK
75% has negative opinion about the IMF and 74% about Dominique Strauss-Kahn (the poll was concluded before the arrest of ex IMF-Head)

64% believes that “the countries haven’t profited from the IMF intervensions”.

61% does not like ECB-Head Jean-Claude Trichet.

However 59% declare they trust the EU, while 67% has negative opinion about Germany.

The majority of the Greeks believes that “major changes should take place in the country. 33% favores a “revolution” – whatever that means…..




Parthenon to be moved and reassembled in Macau?

The nation formerly known as Greece to sell naming rights to the nation formerly known as Greece to the highest bidder?

The Aegean Sea to be sold to British Petroleum?

The right to vote in Greece to be sold to ChoicePoint which will impose a poll tax on all who wish to vote while reserving the exclusive right to declare who won the elections for themselves subject to IMF approval? ChoicePoint also to sell the voter personal information to who ever they want?

The right to breathe Greek air to be sold to Goldman Sachs? If the people formerly known as Greeks wish to breathe without paying royalties to Goldman then let them wear scuba tanks.
 
Lets hope the Greeks default on their debt, when the Irish, Portuguese, Italians and Spanish see that the sky didn't fall, they'll do the same. THEN, maybe, we can see some real monetary reform.
 
Lets hope the Greeks default on their debt, when the Irish, Portuguese, Italians and Spanish see that the sky didn't fall, they'll do the same. THEN, maybe, we can see some real monetary reform.

They may have to oust their present government to do it.
 
Greece didn't go far enough with reforms and austerity programs and will be back to ask for another bailout in a short time, perhaps 6 months.
 
Greece didn't go far enough with reforms and austerity programs and will be back to ask for another bailout in a short time, perhaps 6 months.
I disagree. They should tell the French and Germans to go f*ck themselves. Only an imbecile would consign an entire generation to debt ridden oblivion. It estimated under austerity it will take Greece 15 years to begin to grow again.

Much better to leave the Euro altogether and return to their own currency.

Take a cue from Iceland - they told the banks to go f*ck themselves and are now growing their economy again :)
 
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I disagree. They should tell the French and Germans to go f*ck themselves. Only an imbecile would consign an entire generation to debt ridden oblivion. It estimated under austerity it will take Greece 15 years to begin to grow again.

Much better to leave the Euro altogether and return to their own currency.

Take a cue from Iceland - they told the banks to go f*ck themselves and are now growing their economy again :)

Interesting . My thought is to create something the rest of the world needs . Sustainable something . Things that supply steady income . Also for the country as a whole not to give up ownership . It be like the power company here in Montana . First off I have always thought if I could own and maintain a hydo dam life would be all sowed up financially. The Idea even came before I met and old man that supplied the town of Willits California with all it's power . Anyway Montana Power " Dumb shits " Sold the Dams as they thought they just are not making that much money . I thought " What the shit is the matter with the boards decision here " So what happens " Power spikes the new owners rake it with big fat rakes . Montana powers second business faultures ( telecommunications , to much competition) blamo power is deregulated consumer gets hammered once again .
 
Nirakar,


Sorry for the personal question, but did you marry a Greek, or greatly admire Greeks?
 
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But Greece shouldn't make all the rest of the EU pay for its outrageous spending and out of control government payroll either.

Well, they should ask Greece to declare itself bankrupt, and leave the EU then.

The US has a debt of a little more than 100% of GDP.
At the moment it is spending massive amounts on avoidable foreign wars.

Greece's debt is 150% without this fatty layer.

This is not a solution, it's a stopgap.

Yes, Greece is culpable.
But is it any more culpable than the banks of richer countries which lent it money, believing that growth would take care of future payments on loans which far outstripped its current capacity.
Should a country which has long been poor have been fiscally smarter than its more experienced brothers?

In a bubble, everyone believes that the good times will last forever.
"This time it's different".
It's always different until the crash.
It is global hysteria.

The Greek retirement age is a problem.
It will rise to 63 by 2015, while Germany's is 67.
The life expectancy in Greece is higher than that in Germany.
Plus, it's a far prettier country, with a less embarrasing history.
I can see how that would be annoying to Germans who are picking up a large proportion of the tab.
 
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