Very low probability of 2 advanced societies at same time in near universe
- Thread starter lbiarge
- Start date
what about it? Space warping requires dark energy, this we as civilization do not have.
river
We call that signal(and others)pulsars and the signal is coming from spinning collapsed stars. Richard Dolan has only given you half of the story(the signal was found)and ignores the second part(the signal was identified as natural in origin)mainly so you will send him money to buy his book. This is a lie by distortion and omission and would lead me to discount anything else he says because this fact is well known to astronomers and physicists. Dolan is either too stupid to know this, or too dishonest to quit using the example. Either way Dolan is discredited as a nutjob(or a charlatan and a fraud).
Grumpy
We call that signal(and others)pulsars and the signal is coming from spinning collapsed stars. Richard Dolan has only given you half of the story(the signal was found)and ignores the second part(the signal was identified as natural in origin)mainly so you will send him money to buy his book. This is a lie by distortion and omission and would lead me to discount anything else he says because this fact is well known to astronomers and physicists. Dolan is either too stupid to know this, or too dishonest to quit using the example. Either way Dolan is discredited as a nutjob(or a charlatan and a fraud).
Grumpy
Gravage: Why assume the following?
SpiderGoat: I agree with the following.
Nasor: One roll of an unknown set of dice provides near zero data about the pertinent probabilities.
We have yet to develop space travel, but are more humane than the Spanish conquerors of the Aztec. If we do become space travelers, I expect us to be even more civilized.
SpiderGoat: I agree with the following.
It is a technological culture that I expect to be very rare.
Nasor: One roll of an unknown set of dice provides near zero data about the pertinent probabilities.
The above was in response the following.
The information available from analysis of one sample as complex as our Earth is very significant.
Precisely the question investigated by this movie: Life After People. Check it out!
(The quick answer: only some fossils.)
Actually, that's so if you're basing your assumptions only on the past. Well, try a look at the future!
According to Aubrey de Grey (and others) extending human's average life span by 10 or 100 fold is quite reasonable and likely near our technological possibilities. So who knows? Maybe our grand-children will live for thousands of years or, well... forever? (Within those thousand years more tech advance will likely prolong the lifespan even more, and so on and so forth.)If these advances in taming our biology are indeed possible then I guess one implication is that travelling around our galaxy ain't necessary gonna be a multi-generational business. (Another implication is that we'll definitely need terra-forming other planets quite soon, or else impose some draconian regulations in regards to human procreation.)
Dinosaur,
I don't think you can have any confidence in the assertion that since it took 4 billion years for civilization to emerge on Earth, 4 billion years must be an average for all life-supporting planets. As I said, your sample size is one, and so has little statistical significance. And even if you do accept it as a likely average, you have no idea what the standard deviation is.
I don't think we have enough data to draw useful conclusions one way or the other.
I don't think you can have any confidence in the assertion that since it took 4 billion years for civilization to emerge on Earth, 4 billion years must be an average for all life-supporting planets. As I said, your sample size is one, and so has little statistical significance. And even if you do accept it as a likely average, you have no idea what the standard deviation is.
I don't think we have enough data to draw useful conclusions one way or the other.
Many information but you forget the name of this post:
- The probability of 2 civilization at same time is only of 64 e-16 (the Drake Equation seem to me few real?)
- Our civilization is not so advanced to comunicate neither with Proxima Centauri and yet with million civilization would be impossible to take contact.
- The signals have attenuation so a probably advanced civilization would need use near so many energy like an star for send a message, our civilization probably cannot send and receive signal out of our solar system (less the rockets we have send that already are into the solar system).
The evidences until today with all the cost spend in money: no UFO, no contact, no signals.
Do you need more?
Do you like we search UFO, Gods, ...?
- The probability of 2 civilization at same time is only of 64 e-16 (the Drake Equation seem to me few real?)
- Our civilization is not so advanced to comunicate neither with Proxima Centauri and yet with million civilization would be impossible to take contact.
- The signals have attenuation so a probably advanced civilization would need use near so many energy like an star for send a message, our civilization probably cannot send and receive signal out of our solar system (less the rockets we have send that already are into the solar system).
The evidences until today with all the cost spend in money: no UFO, no contact, no signals.
Do you need more?
Do you like we search UFO, Gods, ...?
spidergoat
Valued Senior Member
Yeah, but what does rare mean? Even unlikely events happen all the time in a galaxy of 400 billion stars.
Ibiarge
Says who, and how would they know? A high probability that there are thousands of civilizations within a thousand light years of us is just as easy to justify as any other estimate. WE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH STATEMENTS.
Actually, SETI watches are virtually free, they piggyback on equipment built for different purposes(radio telescopes) and require little in additional equipment. It is just an additional analysis done on information we collect for other purposes. And all current SETI searches are done by volunteers. So why not look? It's analogous to the lottery, you don't have much chance of winning, but the ticket is very cheap, you can only win if you play the game and the payoff is huge if you do get lucky. Low risk or cost/ high payoff=good bet.
Grumpy
Says who, and how would they know? A high probability that there are thousands of civilizations within a thousand light years of us is just as easy to justify as any other estimate. WE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH STATEMENTS.
Actually, SETI watches are virtually free, they piggyback on equipment built for different purposes(radio telescopes) and require little in additional equipment. It is just an additional analysis done on information we collect for other purposes. And all current SETI searches are done by volunteers. So why not look? It's analogous to the lottery, you don't have much chance of winning, but the ticket is very cheap, you can only win if you play the game and the payoff is huge if you do get lucky. Low risk or cost/ high payoff=good bet.
Grumpy
Nasor: As mentioned previously, a sample size of one is insignificant for a simple process like a dice throw. It can be very significant for a complex process like the history of the solar system. The history of the earth has given us a firm knowledge of evolution. Consider the following.
My earlier post made the claim that evolution of a technological culture is more of a lucky fluke that an inevitable consequence of evolution.
You are merely quibbling about my claim that a solar system needs to be stable for 4 billion years in order for a technological culture to evolve.
I still claim that many galaxies have no technological cultures & few would have more than one.
What is your guess on the number of technological cultures in a typical galaxy? Zero, 1,2, 5, 20, 1000? Impossible to use analysis of the history of the earth to make an estimate?
The dinosaurs existed for circa 150 million years. The last of them were no smarter than the first. They never came close to developing a technological civilization. This surely provides strong support for the notion that a technological culture is not an inevitable result of evolution?
The best estimates indicate that the most primitive life forms existed circa 3.7 billion years ago, suggesting that a solar system must be stable for circa 4 billion years to allow enough time for primitive life to occur & a technological culture to evolve.
Does our fossil record not indicate that our evolution took more than millions of years? If 4 billion is not a good estimate of how long a solar system must be stable to allow time for evolution, what would you suggest? 3 million, 100 million, 1 billion, 8 billion? Would you ignore the history of the earth & just make a wild guess at how long evolution of a technological culture would take?
Perhaps you would prefer to claim that such an estimate is impossible to make & ignore the question. My preference is to try to do my best to use whatever evidence I have & try to make reasonable estimates for various conditions/processes.
Note that the history of the earth strongly supports the notion that the primate body design is best for the development of a technological culture. Perhaps you disagree with this notion. What design do you think would be as good or better?
If the primate design is necessary, note how long it took for the first primate species to appear. It took most of the 3.7 billion years since life first appeared. Mammals have existed for circa 65 million years, only a small fraction of the 4.6 billion years since the beginning of our solar system.
Note that only our primate species survived long enough to develop a technological culture. The Neandertals & Denisovans did not survive & the chimps never even made a stone axe or a spear.
The best estimates indicate that the most primitive life forms existed circa 3.7 billion years ago, suggesting that a solar system must be stable for circa 4 billion years to allow enough time for primitive life to occur & a technological culture to evolve.
Does our fossil record not indicate that our evolution took more than millions of years? If 4 billion is not a good estimate of how long a solar system must be stable to allow time for evolution, what would you suggest? 3 million, 100 million, 1 billion, 8 billion? Would you ignore the history of the earth & just make a wild guess at how long evolution of a technological culture would take?
Perhaps you would prefer to claim that such an estimate is impossible to make & ignore the question. My preference is to try to do my best to use whatever evidence I have & try to make reasonable estimates for various conditions/processes.
Note that the history of the earth strongly supports the notion that the primate body design is best for the development of a technological culture. Perhaps you disagree with this notion. What design do you think would be as good or better?
If the primate design is necessary, note how long it took for the first primate species to appear. It took most of the 3.7 billion years since life first appeared. Mammals have existed for circa 65 million years, only a small fraction of the 4.6 billion years since the beginning of our solar system.
Note that only our primate species survived long enough to develop a technological culture. The Neandertals & Denisovans did not survive & the chimps never even made a stone axe or a spear.
My earlier post made the claim that evolution of a technological culture is more of a lucky fluke that an inevitable consequence of evolution.
You are merely quibbling about my claim that a solar system needs to be stable for 4 billion years in order for a technological culture to evolve.
I still claim that many galaxies have no technological cultures & few would have more than one.
What is your guess on the number of technological cultures in a typical galaxy? Zero, 1,2, 5, 20, 1000? Impossible to use analysis of the history of the earth to make an estimate?
Ibiarge
Says who, and how would they know? A high probability that there are thousands of civilizations within a thousand light years of us is just as easy to justify as any other estimate. WE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH STATEMENTS.
Grumpy
Yes, if you consider that probably converge 2 civilization with times of a million years of existence.
I consider what we know, that our Sun has 4.57 billion years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun ) from an estimated total time of 12.3 Billion years (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_much_longer_do_scientists_think_the_sun_will_live)
Our advanced civilization in condition to contact you can consider if you like in 1000 years (really I consider that today count 0 years in conditions to contact with other advanced civilizations (send, receive or travel), so considering 1000/12,300,000,000 = 8.13 e-8 and because need to converge with the other civilization is 8.13 e-8 x 8.13 e-8 = 64 e-16
Also you need to considerer that distance in universe is also time, so to contact with a civilization a 1000 lightyears also need to be civilization and send waves 1000 years before.
Ibiarge
Actually, SETI watches are virtually free, they piggyback on equipment built for different purposes(radio telescopes) and require little in additional equipment. It is just an additional analysis done on information we collect for other purposes. And all current SETI searches are done by volunteers. So why not look? It's analogous to the lottery, you don't have much chance of winning, but the ticket is very cheap, you can only win if you play the game and the payoff is huge if you do get lucky. Low risk or cost/ high payoff=good bet.
Grumpy
I don't believe that, maybe actually but cost is total: http://history.nasa.gov/seti.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Telescope_Array
also for seti costs estimated in http://www.google.com/search?q=seti...=seti+costs+estimated&oq=seti+costs+estimated
Bending space itself behaves just like anti-gravity propulsion, by contracting and expanding space, isn't that what gravity does to the space around it?
And history has proven time and time again, the more scientifically and technologically better and superior you are, the more self-destructive you are, humans have always destroyed less evolved, less intellectually, less scientifically and less technologically based civilizations. The same thing is present with aliens if they are superior in both science, technology and intellect, just look what we do ourselves-always, all the time.
Period, so your statements and approaches are wrong based on all historical factual examples. The aggressiveness and primitive genes will never go away they will always equally affect us, they are part of us and crucial for our survival but also self-destruction.
Cheers.
If the change for intilligent life would only be 64e-16 then their would still be 192 million of them at any given time (their are a estimated 3E23 stars in the universe)
(also you way at getting to the numbre 64E-16 is questionable)
The universe is this big that even something with your low probability scores should happens more then a 100 million times at the same time
Like you say my number can to be questionable, but near to it the solution is.
Against this your number is only impossible, you say "(their are a estimated 3E23 stars in the universe)" this is the total at million light years: How you can contact with civilization at million light years with the attenuation?
I say also that same in the case of million of civilization the contact is impossible at least with our technology, with our actual technology probably we cannot contact with Proxima Centauri, this is only at 4.24 light years but this is only at 9285.6 more distance that Pluto.
To contact with other civilization you need many transmission power, probably in a magnitude near to our star power emission (or more, our star is a low star), consider the loses by attenuation.
Consider treat to contact with Proxima Centauri, you need a parabolic anten in that direction, a power of many wat, probably you would need near the power of 50 nuclear plants (or more) for obtain a signal probably 1 trillion less power that the Sun (without take in count the electronic for that - transistors, ...) with that signal probably you could make a signal of 2 minutes. This signal will arrive to Proxima Centauri in 4.24 years and only is signal for 2 minutes, in Proxima Centauri only would to ear the signal if there is a parabolic pointed to the earth. In case of receive by an advanced civilization they could send signal for us maybe yes or maybe not, ... All this for 1 only information in both directions???? the cost??? the value???? maybe also that when arrive the answer to us in 8.48 years our antennas are not directed to Proxima Centauri and we lost the answer.
An this only with the more nearest star to us.
Proxima centauri was discovered in 1917. less then a 100 year ago, the wright brothers first flew in 1903 (they made the first airplane) Sputnik (the first space probe) was launched in 1957 from the first airplane to the first space probe in only 54 years. Inter stellar travel seems far fetched and impossible at first sight, but case studies like wormholes and the alcubierre drive proof that in the least mathematically under exotic circumstances (mostly involving negative mass) fasther then light travel is possible (it's actualy making the distance in between shorter then actually FTL).
So we won't have interstellar travel in our lifeterms but someday we might
For the comming decade however keep your eyes out for EXPRESSO to become active in 2017 (it will detect rocky planets altough it still wouldn't be able to detect a true earth mass planet around our sun but then again most stars are smaller).
Eventually who knows (which isn't that bad of a answer I think)
So we won't have interstellar travel in our lifeterms but someday we might
For the comming decade however keep your eyes out for EXPRESSO to become active in 2017 (it will detect rocky planets altough it still wouldn't be able to detect a true earth mass planet around our sun but then again most stars are smaller).
Eventually who knows (which isn't that bad of a answer I think)