US's economy has fully recovered?

[joepistole]

Just because X is stated to be true by a government does not make it true.
This is most clearly seen in war time: "The first causality of war, is always truth."

That is true, but in similar fashion, some nutcase, partisan or scoundrel posting something on the web doesn’t make it true either. In the case of government and in specifically in this case, there are no secrets. None of this material, including source material is secret. It compiled and published by the government. It is reviewed and scrutinized by business professionals and academics – all the time.

The current CPI, GDP methodology is the one the US government used a little more than two decades ago. The US's GDP is nearly meaningless index. For example: If I sell my dog to James for two million dollars and he sells me his two cats for one million each, we make a 4 million increase in the calculated GDP.

How many people do you know who sell their dogs and cats for two million dollars each just to jack up a GDP number? And even if they were crazy enough to do so, how many dogs and cats would they have to sell and buy to make a material impact on a 16 trillion dollar economy? The CPI and GDP measures are long established and the methodology. It is used because of its predictive powers. If it were somehow flawed, it would be quickly noticed in academia and in the business world.

I have long contended that GDP should not include ballgame & movie tickets, hair cuts, etc. that have no value a year later. I.e. a "durable GDP," DGDP, would be much more meaning full.
By a DGDP index, Chinese economy is at least twice that of the US, now.

Well you can contend that all you want. But the money spent on baseball games, haircuts, and movie tickets doesn’t stop being money just because you don’t like how it is being spent. The GDP is a measure of the entire economy, not portions of the economy. If you want limited or measures of specific sectors, the government publishes those numbers as well. If you want durable goods, the government reports on durable goods as well. http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

So basically, what you are doing is taking a subsection of the GDP and calling it the entire GDP. That is misleading, it isn’t honest. If you want to ignore parts of the economy, if you want to mislead yourself, go for it. But don’t mislead others.

And there is no “durable goods domestic product index”. There is a durable goods portion of the GDP. If businessmen and academics wanted to talk about durable goods instead of GDP, they could, but they don’t. They use both, because each tells them a portion of the economic story. But one does not replace or diminish the other.

And your notions about China’s economy are equally nonsensical. The US economy is more than twice the size that of China – not to mention China faces a number of large and potentially devastating road bumps, including but not limited to governmental instability and demographic changes that are about to bite it in the derriere.

 

[Michael]

Dow flirts with 17,000, but most people missed the ride

Enjoying the New Economy yet? Let's see, it's been 6 years or so - only 30 more to go.
Thank the Gods we bailed out the richest 0.1%.

 

[joepistole]

Dow flirts with 17,000, but most people missed the ride

Enjoying the New Economy yet? Let's see, it's been 6 years or so - only 30 more to go.
Thank the Gods we bailed out the richest 0.1%.

Well some people missed the boat. Some people are even poorer, namely the right wing nut cases who went out and foolishly invested in gold and silver because by God they knew Zimbabwe style hyperinflation was just around the corner. Yeah, fools lose their money. The ignorant partisan nut cases have a lot of crow to eat - not to mention a lot less wealth if they had really walked the walk that they preached and continue preach to others. I am responsible for many things. Obama is responsible for many things, but right wing stupidity isn't one of them.

"American companies are finally getting comfortable enough with the economy’s prospects to add new workers at a very healthy pace, after years of saying they lacked the confidence to hire people aggressively during a fitful recovery.

Employers added 288,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said Thursday, the fifth month in a row that hiring has topped the 200,000 mark. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 percent last month, the best reading since September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers turned what had been a mild recession into an economic rout.

Since then, many segments of the economy have rebounded — including corporate profits, Wall Street and the housing market — even as payrolls inched higher at a grindingly slow rate. Now, these broader economic gains are prompting businesses to actually hire significantly more workers in response to growing demand, rather than taking half steps, like adding hours to stretch existing work forces." New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/04/business/jobs-data-for-june-released-by-labor-department.html

Republicans have done everything possible to foment distrust and unrest including some very serious threats to cause an intentional US debt default and another economic disaster. People, business people, took those threats seriously as well they should. Now it appears that the irrational Tea Party is losing its strength, and that is a good thing for business and the country.

 

[Michael]

Employers added 288,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said Thursday, the fifth month in a row that hiring has topped the 200,000 mark. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 percent last month, the best reading since September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers turned what had been a mild recession into an economic rout.

More Americans are stuck in part-time work

New government data released Thursday showed the economy added 288,000 jobs in June — the fifth straight month gains have topped the critical benchmark of 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, down more than a percentage point over the past year. But there’s a gnawing fear among some economists that the improving data provides false comfort. The number of people in part-time jobs jumped by more than 1 million in June to 27 million, according to the government’s data, making it one of the corners of the labor market that has been slowest to heal. That has led to worries that the workforce may be becoming permanently polarized, with part-timers stuck on one side and full-time workers on the other.

“What we’re seeing is a growing trend of low-quality part-time jobs,” said Carrie Gleason, director of the Fair Work Week Initiative, which is pushing for labor reforms. “It’s creating this massive unproductive workforce that is unable to productively engage in their lives or in the economy.” Washington has begun to take notice. As the unemployment rate has dropped, the debate among policymakers has expanded from providing aid to those without a job to include improving conditions for those who do. President Obama has raised the minimum wage for federal contract workers, many of whom are part-time. The White House is also building support for a measure that would require companies to provide paid sick leave. Nationwide protests at retailers and fast-food chains that heavily rely on part-time labor have called for more reliable schedules.

The government defines part-time workers as those whose jobs average less than 35 hours a week. Historically, they made up about 17 percent of the workforce — and, in most cases, they were part-time by choice. They may be caring for family members, enrolled in school or simply uninterested or unable to work more hours. Technically, they are not counted among the unemployed. But the spike in part-time work since the recession has been largely involuntary. These workers may have had their hours cut or are unable to find full-time jobs, earning them the official designation of “part-time for economic reasons.” In June, their ranks swelled by 275,000 to 7.5 million. In 2007, 4.4 million people fell into this category.

While it’s a number that flops around from month to month — the standard deviation is 287,000 — it jumped by 799,000, which was the largest one-month gain since January 1994. At the same time, there was a 523,000-person drop in full-time workers, the first decline since October.

Welcome to the New Economy



From Joe's NYT link:

manufacturers hired 16,000 workers, while transportation companies added 17,000 employees and the long-dormant public sector saw an addition of 26,000 positions.

So, the Tax Payer just picked up 26,000 more full time Government jobs that they MUST pay for out of their Labor Tax on their three part time jobs. Unlike Part-Time America, those full time Government Jobs are paid sweet medical benefits (from their choice of Private Healthcare options). Good full-time Government jobs, with yearly wage increases, long vacation time, lots of job security, plenty of benefits, all public holidays off, good hours. Yes, life is pretty f*cking good if you work for the State. Like any cancer, the State continues to grow and metastasize, until it kills it's host.


Now, pay your Labor Tax, you have 26,000 new Farmers that need more of your milk and meat - so start producing like good little State Owned Tax Chattel in your Farmer's Tax Pen.

 

[joepistole]

More Americans are stuck in part-time work

Welcome to the New Economy



From Joe's NYT link:
So, the Tax Payer just picked up 26,000 more full time Government jobs that they MUST pay for out of their Labor Tax on their three part time jobs. Unlike Part-Time America, those full time Government Jobs are paid sweet medical benefits (from their choice of Private Healthcare options). Good full-time Government jobs, with yearly wage increases, long vacation time, lots of job security, plenty of benefits, all public holidays off, good hours. Yes, life is pretty f*cking good if you work for the State. Like any cancer, the State continues to grow and metastasize, until it kills it's host.


Now, pay your Labor Tax, you have 26,000 new Farmers that need more of your milk and meat - so start producing like good little State Owned Tax Chattel in your Farmer's Tax Pen.

You should read the articles you reference and drop the specious sources. In the face of overwhelming good news, you want to quibble over sectors of the labor force?
Part-time unemployment was up last month, but overall it is down on the year.

 

[brucep]

Dow flirts with 17,000, but most people missed the ride

Enjoying the New Economy yet? Let's see, it's been 6 years or so - only 30 more to go.
Thank the Gods we bailed out the richest 0.1%.

Idiot wind. We bailed out the 'bald heads' to save some of our own ass. Lots of folks 'lost the financial ability' to participate in the market and lots of people told Wall Street to shove the micro second trading and overall sociopathy where the sun don't ever shine.

 

[iceaura]

The structural changes in the US economy make "recovery", in the ordinary sense, almost meaningless.

The last time the wealthy pulled a smash and grab like this, it took WWII to pry the wealth out of their hands - we had to bomb their holdings to rubble.

 

[brucep]

The structural changes in the US economy make "recovery", in the ordinary sense, almost meaningless.

The last time the wealthy pulled a smash and grab like this, it took WWII to pry the wealth out of their hands - we had to bomb their holdings to rubble.

There was a historical precedent for the smash and grab and americans fell for it again. A large portion of americans think Ronald Reagan had their best interests at heart and is the greatest modern president. More Idiot wind nonsense. He's the father of this oligarchy.

 

[billvon]

Why you're still poor as Dow flirts with 17,000
Thank the Gods we bailed out the richest 0.1%.

Well some people missed the boat. Some people are even poorer, namely the right wing nut cases who went out and foolishly invested in gold and silver because by God they knew Zimbabwe style hyperinflation was just around the corner.

Hmm. I did pretty well over the last few weeks. Does that mean that I am in the richest .1%? I can't be, because I am apparently not a right wing nut case who invested in gold. It's so hard to decide what pigeonhole I fit into lately . . .

 

[joepistole]

Hmm. I did pretty well over the last few weeks. Does that mean that I am in the richest .1%? I can't be, because I am apparently not a right wing nut case who invested in gold. It's so hard to decide what pigeonhole I fit into lately . . .

Lol, I think it pretty obvious wasn't talking about weeks, and anyone who thinks a few weeks of trend hopping makes for a sage or good investor is a fool.

And what I wrote was thus, if these right wing nut jobs really believed their rhetoric and invested accordingly, they would have taken some serious loses. And that really isn't a disputable issue. It is a documented fact. I suggest you stop cherry picking and crediting me with material I didn't author. I didn't say anything about the top 1% in my post. Were you a right wing nut who invested in precious metals? If you were, then you deserve the credit for your loses.

The point being the right has been wrong about so much in recent years, when are they going to step up to the plate and admit they were wrong? Unfortunately, I don't think they have the honesty and intellectual ability to do so; nor is it in the interests of those who fund the movement to do so. So it won't happen. But facts are facts.

 

[Michael]

Lol, I think it pretty obvious wasn't talking about weeks, and anyone who thinks a few weeks of trend hopping makes for a sage or good investor is a fool.

CNBC

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon warns that shoppers aren’t returning at the pace one might expect years after the recession peaked, despite mainstream media interpretation of the data showing unequivocal growth. Simply put, he exclaims, "the unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force," adding that if we see a further drop in the participation rate it would fit with the fact that "middle-class and lower-class are still economically challenged, only spending during holidays and for family occasions," adding that traction has only come at the top-end.

CNBC: "The US unemployment rate fell 6.1%. but walmart sales and traffic has been pretty sluggish. what's going on? where's the disconnect?"

CEO Bill Simon: "I think the economic numbers - unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force - and I think it's going to take a while - six months or a year - for those numbers to balance out. You'll see drop in the rate, and then - as more people come back into the workforce - that might change again. Hopefully after six years we start to gain traction in the US. That traction is coming at the top end but I think the middle down is pretty challenged.

CNBC: "Is that the problem with sales, your consumers don't have as much disposable income to spend?"

CEO Bill Simon: "Yes - Retail in general has not been robust in the last six years, in the last year particularly."

facts are facts

 

[joepistole]

CNBC

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon warns that shoppers aren’t returning at the pace one might expect years after the recession peaked, despite mainstream media interpretation of the data showing unequivocal growth. Simply put, he exclaims, "the unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force," adding that if we see a further drop in the participation rate it would fit with the fact that "middle-class and lower-class are still economically challenged, only spending during holidays and for family occasions," adding that traction has only come at the top-end.

CNBC: "The US unemployment rate fell 6.1%. but walmart sales and traffic has been pretty sluggish. what's going on? where's the disconnect?"

CEO Bill Simon: "I think the economic numbers - unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force - and I think it's going to take a while - six months or a year - for those numbers to balance out. You'll see drop in the rate, and then - as more people come back into the workforce - that might change again. Hopefully after six years we start to gain traction in the US. That traction is coming at the top end but I think the middle down is pretty challenged.

CNBC: "Is that the problem with sales, your consumers don't have as much disposable income to spend?"

CEO Bill Simon: "Yes - Retail in general has not been robust in the last six years, in the last year particularly."

If you were an investor you would know you shouldn't believe everything a CEO says. We are in the middle of earnings season now. And some retailers are reporting some very good numbers, others like Wal-Mart are not. CEO's like to blame the economy for their errors and shortfalls. Costco sales were up 6%.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/15/retail-sales-june/12654525/

 

[Michael]

Yup, thank the Gods the Privately owned "Central" banking retards bailed out the richest 0.01% (whom, coincidentally, own the regional banks who own the Federal Reserve: thus, they own our money, our economy, our society, us).


Welcome to their Economy - do enjoy.

 

[youreyes]

Just one look at the Congressional Budget Office forecast for US future already says everything, the Great Depression is coming and debt will rise even higher:

http://cbo.gov/publication/45010

The large budget deficits recorded in recent years have substantially increased federal debt, and the amount of debt relative to the size of the economy is now very high by historical standards. CBO estimates that federal debt held by the public will equal 74 percent of GDP at the end of this year and 79 percent in 2024 (the end of the current 10-year projection period). Such large and growing federal debt could have serious negative consequences, including restraining economic growth in the long term

:shrug:

and that's just the tip of the iceberg, labor force for example is forecasted to be a great deficit in the future. That coupled with a growing large federal debt is spiralling down US economy into chaos.

 

[billvon]

Just one look at the Congressional Budget Office forecast for US future already says everything, the Great Depression is coming and debt will rise even higher:

We have about a poster a year predict that the US's economy will soon collapse. Once a year for the past ten years or so.

 

[youreyes]

We have about a poster a year predict that the US's economy will soon collapse. Once a year for the past ten years or so.

I am not predicting a collapse, I am referring to an actual Federal document, not some news source, but US government saying what I just said.

 

[billvon]

I am not predicting a collapse, I am referring to an actual Federal document

You said "the Great Depression is coming." The document you referenced said nothing of the sort.

Once again, about once a year we have someone with HARD FACT proving that the world is about to end.
We can't support our debt! See, here's a document, so it's a HARD FACT.
We will run out of oil! See, here's a study from the US DOE. It's a HARD FACT.
The Apocalypse is upon us! See, it's referenced in seven places in the Bible. It's a HARD FACT.

After the first ten fail to come true you start to realize "hey, these people are sort of always . . . wrong."

 

[youreyes]

You said "the Great Depression is coming." The document you referenced said nothing of the sort.

Once again, about once a year we have someone with HARD FACT proving that the world is about to end.
We can't support our debt! See, here's a document, so it's a HARD FACT.
We will run out of oil! See, here's a study from the US DOE. It's a HARD FACT.
The Apocalypse is upon us! See, it's referenced in seven places in the Bible. It's a HARD FACT.

After the first ten fail to come true you start to realize "hey, these people are sort of always . . . wrong."

well thats just silly, you naive little thing. The facts are straight, the ongoing economic recession has not recovered, Debt is rising, workforce is decreasing, and the grim economic outlook of US economy is quite appalling to say the least.

Budget Deficits

CBO estimates that under current law, the deficit will total $514 billion in fiscal year 2014

increasing federal debt:

CBO estimates that federal debt held by the public will equal 74 percent of GDP at the end of this year and 79 percent in 2024 (the end of the current 10-year projection period)

economic growth will slow down:

CBO expects that economic growth will diminish to a pace that is well below the average seen over the past several decades. That projected slowdown mainly reflects long-term trends—particularly, slower growth in the labor force because of the aging of the population.

decreasing labor work force:

Moreover, the rate of participation in the labor force—which has been pushed down by the unusually large number of people who have decided not to look for work because of a lack of job opportunities—is projected to move only slowly back toward what it would be without the cyclical weakness in the economy.

all from "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024" at http://cbo.gov/publication/45010

 

[youreyes]

Once again, about once a year we have someone with HARD FACT proving that the world is about to end.

Oh the world will go on happy without US, trust me. US isnt the "world" there are plenty of happiness around elsewhere.

 

[Aqueous Id]

Oh the world will go on happy without US, trust me. US isnt the "world" there are plenty of happiness around elsewhere.

No, a crash of the US economy would be fatal to the rest of the world. You need us a hell of a lot more than we need you.