Professor Cole is continuing to quote sources alleging that Moqtada is still in Iraq, even amid other anectodes that his militia have been melting away/making "pilgrimages" to Iran as the new American offensive gathers.
A link at juancole.com also points to an
IPS article debunking recent Bush Administration talking points and posturing. Gareth Porter reminds us that Iranian arms exports routinely travel through other-than-official distribution; that Iranian-mfd arms are not unusual throughout the Mideast; that Iraqi government and security agencies are by no means innocent in terms of arms trafficking; and (which I have also suspected) that the EFP's present no technology that Iraqis are not entirely capable of manufacturing locally with simple machine tools.
Especially in Iraq, where high explosives are so uncommonly accessible, home-brew seems like the most convenient and secure means for insurgents to exploit IED and EFP assymetrical-warfare breakthroughs- cheap devices that trash multi-million-dollar armor, often without exposing the operators to direct retaliation; cheap devices that so viciously take the lives and limbs of our precious soldiers; vicious little cans that are nothing less than revolutionary in modern warfare; gadgets that Iraqis could conceivably (and relatively easily) continue making while America's economy strains to maintain 20th-Century conventions in war production. IEDs and EFPs are an effective force-multiplier and investment-multiplier for insurgents, and a serious challenge to overextended superpowers. In short they could be the Iraq War equivalent to the Stingers Reagan so decisively provided the Taliban in their resounding defeat of the Soviets. I'm afraid that if the American public pays scant attention to most developments until US casualties precipitously mount, then the opposition naturally will become extremely capable of clearly communicating to them in this horrible way.
I think it's safe to say that IEDs, EFPs, and shoulder-launched SAMs (also notably on the increase in action lately) seriously annoy Dubya, however insensitive he may be to what war is like. It also seems as if the Bush cabinet had prepared (in response to these serious threats) a whole bill of goods implicating and even scapegoating the Iranian government in the deadly and costly Iraq quagmire, but the presentation was much delayed and watered-down because the US intelligence community balked at signing off on the claims the Bush cabinet wanted sold.
If the Bushmen really want a new Iranian Front in the War on Terra, they may have to resort to a Gulf of Tonkin re-enactment, which would be a gigantic gamble in may ways. There is diminishing certainty over support for attacking Iran among the Joint Chiefs and Congress. So much of America is onto them, and the neocon strategists obviously know it. In the cautious dilution of the present blame-Tehran campaign, we can see that they are treading much more carefully now.
Which for all of our sakes, they had damn well better do.