Yazata:
Right. I thoroughly agree.
Eyewitness experience isn't infallible. It obviously can be mistaken and sometimes it is.
Good. Then we're all in agreement on that - except for Magical Realist, of course. But I'm pretty sure he knows it, too.
Do 'skeptics' really drive their cars with their eyes closed (just "trusting the Force")? If they drive with their eyes open, why do they do that? Because they consider their visual perception to be a reasonably reliable source of information about what is in front of them? That reasonable reliability obviously doesn't make collisions impossible, but it greatly reduces their likelihood.
You really ought to read some of my posts, so you don't just repeat Magical Realist's mistakes. It makes you look a bit silly when you do that, especially when the explanation you say you want is just a few posts further up in the thread.
I think you know why skeptics drive with their eyes open. It's because, most of the time (but certainly not always), their perception is
good enough to get them from point A to point B in reasonable safety. They don't drive with their eyes shut, because doing that would
not be good enough to make the usual daily commute safely.
One way to look at personal experience reports is to consider them defeasable.
All you're saying is that additional, independent evidence and analysis can show that an eyewitness report is factually incorrect.
Everybody looks at it that way - except Magical Realist, of course.
In the UAP cases, it seems to me that witness reports that an unknown object in the sky appeared metallic is defeasable evidence that it indeed was metallic. Their reports that it moved in such and such a way is defeasable evidence that it did in fact move in that way.
In other words, the eyewitness evidence is evidence - a fact that you know nobody here has ever denied - but it is often
weak evidence, especially when it is the only evidence available. It is weak because it fails to convince anybody else (apart from gullible fools) that the unknown object was an alien spaceship. Any sensible person will want better evidence than a single witness's claims.
To put it more succinctly: ask yourself whether a single eyewitness statement will be
good enough for you to believe that the UFO they report is an alien spaceship.
Your answer, if you're being honest now, should be that you
don't think this will be good enough evidence, on its own.
But you won't admit this, will you? You won't reply to this post, just like you didn't reply to the others - even the ones directly addressing you. That's dishonest, Yazata. You should change your ways. Show some integrity.
Philosophers of science point out that all scientific conclusions are defeasable in this way.
It's so nice of you to walk us all through something that everybody else got to months or years ago, Yazata: that individual data points can be faulty. That extraordinary evidence is better than weak evidence.
The witness reports aren't logically deductive proof that what was seen was metallic or that it moved in such and such a way, but they are plausible reason to hypothesize that it was and did.
Of course. At the stage of forming initial hypotheses - before further investigation - it's always best to keep lots of alternative hypotheses alive, because we can never predict
a priori which one of them will turn out to be the truth (if any).
Obviously those hypotheses can be defeated by additional information, but the burden has shifted to the 'debunker' to actually provide that information.
No.
The burden is
always on the person who claims that only
one hypothesis fits all the data to show that is the case. If that person is unable to exclude other, conflicting hypotheses that account for the data equally well, then the case remains open.
There is
never an onus on a "debunker" to prove a True Believer wrong, unless the debunker has made competing claims of his own. Rather, the Believer needs to prove that his pet hypothesis is the correct one.
Just pointing out that additional speculative possibilities remain open (cavorting whales! birds! Venus! swamp gas!) doesn't seem to me to suffice in achieving what appears to be the debunker's goal (of dismissing the unwelcome hypothesis as "woo") unless additional information is provided that whatever alternative hypothesis that the debunker for some reason favors was in fact the case.
You're correct. If two competing hypotheses both explain the data adequately, and there's nothing in the way of extra data or analysis that points towards why one ought to be favoured over the other, then the interim conclusion should be: we don't know which of the two explanations is correct.
Some other factors tend to come into play, however. For example, there's Occam's razor. If one hypothesis requires the existence of never-before-seen extraterrestrial alien civilisations visiting Earth, while the other requires only the existence of the planet Venus, we should prefer the Venus explanation over the alien one until such time as there is good reason to believe in the extraterrestrial aliens. Sure, the UFO
could still be the aliens, but that's not reason enough in itself to take the leap to
believing it's aliens before we have sufficient evidence.
Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, you see. Refer to Hume, for instance.