SAR'S CoV-2 Death rates & Statistics

[Quantum Quack]

i hope brazil does waste any aid it is given building some neo-con private military

Always a chance they might do so ....

however, if the vaccine is rolled out in short supply & the virus then mutates & incubates inside millions with small doses of vaccine in it
what will the virus do ?

Interesting question...that probably needs to be rephrased...
Imagines headline:
Partial Vax immunity could lead to disaster

 

[RainbowSingularity]

could

...
"will" dependent if your selling vaccine to a closed market or attempting to maintain fascist like grip on power
or deliberately increase the death rate of the pandemic to a mass human cull
[all the negatives running at the moment with no opposing positives]

at the moment the vaccine roll out is far to slow
the initial doses of old vaccine will be almost a waste of time once they get to the coal face of the new strains
soo much so it looks deliberate
only way the usa can survive is by creating a hard border with south America and they lack the moral-will to maintain a quarantine process.


who wants to give free food to marauding hoards hell bent on wiping out your culture ?
i get it

USA has south America
china has its western frontier
Canada has the USA
UK has the EU
the EU has middle east
the middle east has the middle east (i will leave it there)

i have cut my teeth on these type of strategic puzzles
so what i see is obvious is other peoples A game
island nations as long as they keep their borders shut & quarantine everyone, should be ok
everyone else is in the wind
the big push needs to be in the 3rd tier vaccine research to deliver to the new current variant level of threat
or they will simply be over run in 6 months to a year

thats just how it is

so unles the new event between India USA Australia and japan is specifically targeting delivering a new mass produced vaccine to specifically target the new and developing variant.
its all rather pointless and a massive waste of resources.
except for Australia & japan because they are island states

that probably needs to be rephrased...

i have de-rephrased my opinion[above] for you

when it comes to countering the pandemic
what use is politeness and manners to the dead

Curtain Raiser !

Partial Vax immunity could lead to disaster

~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>
[look i made bunting]

 

[Dennis Tate]

ouch !

add on the new variants & the larger viral loads that may increase
to what ... 3.5% maybe ... ?
so places like South America may get up as high as 3.5% soon ?

Wow... my wife keeps me updated on what is happening in South America so I will ask her about this next week.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

Wow... my wife keeps me updated on what is happening in South America so I will ask her about this next week.

when you add their collapsed hospital system
lack of food & medical distribution
and compound that as causative to the pandemic
i think the death rate will likely be closer to 4% for them maybe 5%
but they have soo many very poor people whom the rich & society feed off their death rate as a form of profit against social funding
some political figures are calling for people to spend money of buying weapons(machine guns & hand guns etc)
but thy are dirt poor & cant afford a health system they cant afford to bury thier own dead as of several months ago

so it seems a bit weird, what is really going on ?
such a large very mobile population with soo much virus infection in them

i love Brazilian music & have met & socialized with a Brazilian people over many years and like them very much i dont want to see their country crushed

 

[RainbowSingularity]

Rather depends how you define "worse", does it not?
What I'm getting at is that the ideal for the virus would be for it to be highly contagious and utterly irrelevant to human existence. If it is highly contagious but too damaging then humans will do what they can to wipe it out, or at least until a strain becomes dominant that is not so damaging (that humans can live with, albeit with an adjusted lifestyle such as vaccines and a low death rate from the virus). So it would be in its own interest for the dominant strain not to be too damaging.

the atmospheric conjuring is a little tilted to nature perceptions of intelligent evolution
i get your point
but many may read that as if the virus is sipping a cup of tea choosing a walk around the thorn bushes

is there a study (which can be compared for structure)on the common cold/flu virus to see why it has lasted so long ?
is there a pay off somewhere for humans ?(possibly an immunological driver to ward off a base level of viral loading ?) im speculating

i will come back to this thread i have not read other responses
i have what feels like a developing bacterial sinus infection which is making things difficult.

 

[Sarkus]

but using the same ration-al (Survival, reproduction) it would be evolutionarilly beneficial that the virus not only fails to kill it's host but forms a beneficial symbiotic relationship with it instead.
Example:
The ideal Darwinist virus:

• Highly contagious
• Beneficial to host so that reproduction via contagion can continue with enthusiasm.
• The sort of virus humans would like to promote and not defeat.

Abstract fiction:
"Viral Man" - Marvel. Superhuman powers, sexual attractiveness and immortality gained by becoming infected with highly contagious virus"
lol

Absolutely. I guess I was sticking to the negative virus idea. But yeah, becoming a beneficial virus would be in everyone's interest.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Absolutely. I guess I was sticking to the negative virus idea. But yeah, becoming a beneficial virus would be in everyone's interest.

so what does this have to say about Darwinism? (rhetorical)
Perhaps something to think on for a bit...

 

[Sarkus]

so what does this have to say about Darwinism? (rhetorical)
Perhaps something to think on for a bit...

If you are referring to "survival of the fittest" then in this context a virus that is both beneficial to its host and highly contagious would be the "fittest" compared to a negative virus, but even the negative one could be sufficiently fit for survival (like seasonal flu virus).

What point are you trying to make?

 

[Quantum Quack]

If you are referring to "survival of the fittest" then in this context a virus that is both beneficial to its host and highly contagious would be the "fittest" compared to a negative virus, but even the negative one could be sufficiently fit for survival (like seasonal flu virus).

What point are you trying to make?

There are all sorts of points one could make given that in the millions of years of humanoid existence not a single virus has achieved such a positive survival state. ( as far as I know)

Mind you, there is some argument that supports the notion that even a negative virus is ultimately beneficial to humans as it aids in the evolution of a more sophisticated immune response for those humans that survive free of artificial interventions. Testing human surivability and forcing selection of the best survivor to procreat the next generation. A natural form of Eugenics so to speak.

This assumes that those humans that survive a viral attack can pass their success down to the next generation via DNA.

Waiting for the next viral attack to further improve their immune response. The virus being a tool to evolve human immunity so to speak, thus making a normally fatal virus a positive human evolutionary tool.
But perhaps this notion is too anthropocentric (human-centric)?

It's a bit like saying that the common cold rhinovirus is actually essential to human evolution and not something that we should seek to diminish by artificial means but allow to run it's natural course.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

compared to a negative virus, but even the negative one could be sufficiently fit for survival (like seasonal flu virus).

the virus is in so many places evolving un checked it has lots of opportunity to evolve low survival high kill rate variants which are not very hardy as far as long term communicable survival factors go.

looking at china when the pandemic broke out into public distribution
this error was made
the assumption was similar to observed ideas around SAR'S & the expectation that the small chance that the correct variant evolve, it would move faster than any current global medical capability.
that has proven to be the case in every single country.

so the fringe theory of probabilistic theory is now almost as pointless as hot buttered toast in a rain storm without an umbrella

on a statistical impact level
its like suggesting only the best highest quality soldier will have the most impact on a battle front while the thousands of poorly equipped soldiers are ignored as being not good enough

it is the antithesis of the saying "a terrorist only needs to be lucky once"

A natural form of Eugenics so to speak

i have tried discussing this subject over the years but it appears to be actively suppressed by many people.
i think the subject is indoctrinated as a brain washing process the same as the cold war era reds under the bed knee jerk name calling of "socialist" to any mixed market economic model or moral principal of community morality.

it is ok inside a framed religion where but not ok in secular society.
anti-liberal dogma by liberals & vacuous left leaning privilege
but that is a different thread subject.

my point is eugenics IS a natural process to a point
humans by selection select genetic properties in mating
genetic procreation tends towards process functionality which in turn defines probabilistic models of selection
which argumentatively could be labeled as you call it natural eugenics.

Waiting for the next viral attack to further improve their immune response. The virus being a tool to evolve human immunity so to speak, thus making a normally fatal virus a positive human evolutionary tool.
But perhaps this notion is too anthropocentric (human-centric)?

and to keep a certain value of scientific reality on the subject parameters to divide it clearly from conspiracy theory propaganda, one would need to provide an example.
(QQ please disregard any vitriolic tone you may read, it is not toward you)

 

[Quantum Quack]

i have tried discussing this subject over the years but it appears to be actively suppressed by many people.
i think the subject is indoctrinated as a brain washing process the same as the cold war era reds under the bed knee jerk name calling of "socialist" to any mixed market economic model or moral principal of community morality.

Sure the issue is vexatious and controversial, no doubt about it.
It also reeks of the terrible nature of Nazi preoccupation with a master race . Of course this spawns a strong emotional response and conspiracy theories in many sensitive readers.

The issue is currently in the news in regards to gene editing, cloning etc and is extremely divisive.

Just about all science fiction is in some way holding on to the notion of engineering our way to godhood or when applied to apocalyptic science fiction humanities extinction due to scientific "misadventure".

I am not sure there is any future fiction that does not involve some form of either AI enhanced cybernetics or genetically engineered humans or both combined...
So one could say that natural eugenics (Darwinism) is out the window and artificial eugenics is all the rage.. lol
btw similar could be said for terra-forming Earth ( climate change ) but that is a another issue....

(QQ please disregard any vitriolic tone you may read, it is not toward you)

I understand the frustration...so no problems..

 

[Quantum Quack]

Just as a matter of interest..and concern,
Because I rent a room to a person who has family in IRAN.
the current CFR for Iran is as high as 3.48% and is chronically understated.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

Just as a matter of interest..and concern,
Because I rent a room to a person who has family in IRAN.
the current CFR for Iran is as high as 3.48% and is chronically understated.

my take is near the end of the obama admin irans government fell apart as they started an internal power struggle/civil war
which lead to lots of Iranian middle class attempting to get out as the urbanized economy collapsed
that was only escalated by the trump administration winding up rhetoric which resulted in iran validating it walking away from nuclear sanctions & the consequential terrorist attacks they have lead against oil interests globally.

so the medical system would have shrunk massively & is probably like a very small highly privatized expensive rich people only system
with dying field hospital like services for the average Iranian(1900s style hospital care inside new buildings).

soo
how do you factor a real CFR
thats obviously quite impossible

iran simply wont have the resources to buy testing kits
even if it had the will to test people
it does not have the people support as they would view the virus as some type of western propaganda system to try & exploit their power base.
those who know it is real & the real risk of the threat will be keeping their head down to prevent being labeled a spy or western sympathizer & thrown out of their job
and in their society, jobs are rare.

Iranian religious leadership whom control the country are probably very happy with the idea of a god given virus killing off a few million Iranians
it solidify's their power base and gives them more money & control & they can use it to reinforce their religious doctrine.

they have not helped themselves by allowing their people to radicalize in foreign groups
if they had a better control of that a western country would be likely already helping them.

but there is a lot of people who will wage war, kill people in a religious genocidal act
then stop & say they cant help it and it is gods will and nothing can be done.
and then repeat the same process over and over
its been going on for millennia

soo
to the CFR
all be it completely useless
iran probably has a CFR that is equal to the CFR
so just double it
if they label their CFR at 3.48(or is speculatively ranged there, its purely environmental)
the number of people being tested needs to be listed
and the rate of infection in the population is probably at-least equal to other countrys like Brazil & the USA.

 

[Quantum Quack]

soo
how do you factor a real CFR
thats obviously quite impossible

The same thing could be said for Papua New Guinea that is currently enduring an extremely urgent and potentially catastrophic outbreak just North of Australia.
With a population of just 8.7 million one of the only real ways we can tell how bad it is is by the number of people that are currently tested as positive in our hotel quarantine system.
While it is difficult to determine the total numbers of arrivals from PNG (from the media) we do know that a record number of 6 out of 8 total internationals testing positive are from PNG.

Publicly published Information is sketchy but we do know that the Australian Government has initiated emergency PPE, medical teams, testing kits and vaccines etc to be immediately sent to PNG.
This speed of aid delivery is quite extraordinary. IMO
The depth of the infection rates are unknowable except to say that it must be significant. Inadequate testing and lab support making things extremely difficult.
An almost totally unprepared and ignorant indigenous population, with low literacy rates and very poor health care systems and relatively new bureaucratic systems all add up to a potential viral catastrophe that will never be fully acknowledged and recorded as people pass away in place, are buried or cremated with out any testing performed.
All travel from PNG to Australia has been banned for 14 days and expats have been told to "shelter"in place. ( Emergency aid staff etc exempted)

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...rus-wave/7ae23bf8-8d53-47b0-8c03-f3437e59020c
and
https://www.9news.com.au/world/coro...r-speaks/1f8ed732-7613-45a4-ab13-6116bcb8e4ed

 

[RainbowSingularity]

The same thing could be said for Papua New Guinea

i may have been a little terse with my response
regardless of technical accuracy
my point was we need to make a scientific guess
contrasted against the anti-science brigade & their war efforts(it is a war because it involves people dying & those left alive & is defined by precise actions & conscious decisions) fighting against science.

see the maternity ward is registering 4 out of 10 pre birther mothers are positive.
thats mind boggling

i assume PNG has a high density sleeping culture arrangement with many sharing the sam room for sleeping & eating
this will amplify the spread quite obviously.

Publicly published Information is sketchy but we do know that the Australian Government has initiated emergency PPE, medical teams, testing kits and vaccines etc to be immediately sent to PNG.

cold war biological warfare concepts(same/same in reality) so you would think the military & governments would have no end of systems & prcesses to roll out & put in place.

its just not immediately deadly to front line which shifts the cost factor back a few ranks to a level that incapacitates the enemy by forcing them to be the medical staff instead of front line staff taking new ground or preventing incursion.

the irony is the public are willingly the incursion bringing down their own society
defining it in old world terms wont solve the public spread.
that is likely to only amplify the opposition as a position of extremist cult ideologies.

your not about to suddenly change png culture
and your not about to suddenly change their housing density issues
additionally, what is not known is how they will be genetically effected.

internationals

are we going to un-pack this ?(im guessing its a no) [WHO precisely is coming & going, oil'n gas & mining people ?]

The depth of the infection rates are unknowable except to say that it must be significant. Inadequate testing and lab support making things extremely difficult.

i agree
there is no reason why a mobile lab can not be sailed into port in a ship of some type.
preferably with a heli-port on
its not like the mining & oil n gas companys are short on technology or money.

why Australian military would be left holding the financial baby im not sure

All travel from PNG to Australia has been banned for 14 days and expats have been told to "shelter"in place. ( Emergency aid staff etc exempted)

not only completely insufficient, but reeks of deliberate miss information word use to term the subject into a political tool.
sheltering in place does not provide food & medical
it limits injury from mobile weapons.

who is the mobile weapons ?

the risks defined by poor media attention
versus political ideology
versus private business games for profit
versus everything

look at all those cruise ships parked up in the Philippines for example
no reason 1 of those cant be sailed into port with a mobile lab set up in it
i would get Australian navy to legally commandeer(if P&O wont co-operate) a cruise ship, have the govt pay costs & all (on board cruise company) staff wages.
then stick it up their with a Australian frigate & some type of local air-force component
effectively delivering a hospital & quarantine ship with lab to PNG for free, financially assisted by the mining & oil n gas company's who can probably have an additional cruise ship set up in port to work with them for all their staff to use.

but rich people dont get rich by thinking of how to save and help other people
equally most politicians

 

[RainbowSingularity]

fabulous video
amazing narration

 

[RainbowSingularity]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56438629
Covid vaccine: India shortfall behind UK's supply delay

The shipment, produced by the Serum Institute of India, has been held up by four weeks, the BBC has been told.

NHS England warned of a reduction in supply in April in a letter to local health organisations on Wednesday.

The Department of Health insists it is still on track to offer a first dose to all adults by the end of July.

A spokesperson for the Serum Institute said: "Five million doses had been delivered a few weeks ago to the UK and we will try to supply more later, based on the current situation and the requirement for the government immunisation programme in India."

A source told the BBC that although the original aim had been to deliver the next five million in March, there was not a stipulated time for the delivery of the doses.

More than 25 million people in the UK have had a first dose of a Covid vaccine, while around 1.7 million have had a second jab.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56456312
The UK death rate during the second wave of the pandemic was not the worst in Europe - but it remained one of the 10 worst-affected countries.

By the end of June 2020, the UK had the highest excess mortality in Europe, according to figures from the ONS.

But by December it had been overtaken by Poland, Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia.

Nevertheless, the UK had one of the highest excess death rates among people under the age of 65 in 2020 at 7.7%.

Excess mortality is the number of deaths by any cause that happen over and above the average for that time of year.

The Office for National Statistics figures cover up to 18 December so do not include deaths from this year when the UK and the rest of Europe experienced a third wave of coronavirus, leading to thousands of Covid-19 deaths. About a third of the UK's Covid deaths have happened since then.

Only Bulgaria recorded a higher rate for under-65s - 12.3% - among the countries analysed by the ONS.

Dr Annie Campbell, from the ONS, said the figures showed the pandemic had not "exclusively" affected the oldest age groups in the UK.

For deaths among all age groups Poland ended 2020 with the highest rate (11.6% above the five-year average), followed by Spain (10.6%) and Belgium (9.7%).

On Thursday, the UK recorded 6,303 new cases and 95 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

hot off the presses(it may not be new news considering the low death rate)
Pakistan statistics published by media
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/20/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-covid-intl/index.html

The South Asian nation of 220 million people has recorded 13,799 deaths and 623,135 cases during the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins University

note question
have you had a covid virus test ?
how many have you had ?
results ?
have you had a covid anti body test ?
how many have you had ?
results ?

me,
yes
yes
negative
no
none
not applicable(n/a)
(i am currently battling a bacterial infection probably contracted from my home environment carried into the house by someone[very poor at hand washing]
{door handle or light switch most likely} handling rodent & stock animal contaminants poop & ground mold & pasturel viruses & bacteria(((keeping in mind in the office there is nose pickers who pick their nose & stick their fingers in their mouth and touch things like door handles & kitchen doors and machine buttons))))

 

[RainbowSingularity]

PAKISTAN
adding some clarity around expected(my rough guessing) figures

throwing some numbers around based on population statistics
((((Google Data Covid statistics page))))
Cases 623K
Recovered 580K
TOTAL Deaths 13,799

Location Cases Recovered Deaths

Sindh
Population: 47.89 million (2017)
cases 263K
recovered 253K
Deaths 4,478

Punjab
Population: 110 million (2017)
cases 195K
recovered 175K
Deaths 5,944

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Population: 35.53 million (2017)
cases 78,653
recovered 71,861
Deaths 2,202

Islamabad Capital Territory
Population: 2 million (2017)
cases 50,843
recovered 45,161
Deaths 539

Balochistan
Population: 12.34 million (2017)
cases 19,306
recovered 18,919
Deaths 203

'+' shows new cases reported yesterday·Last updated: 2 days ago·
Source:JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data


Balochistan
Population: 12.34 million (2017)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...or-balochistan-to-help-recovery-from-covid-19

Rates of malnutrition and food insecurity in Balochistan were already high before the COVID-19 global pandemic, but the virus has affected livelihoods and made the problem worse.

UK aid will help over 41,000 women and children get vital nutrients they need, through a therapeutic food programme. It will support community outreach workers to identify and help malnourished children, pregnant women and new mothers.

[{(Remember this is me theorizing)}]

Soo ... while not wishing to yell fire in a crowded cinema...
the basic larger picture based on population and general guides would suggest covid is likely to have at least an equal effect to 1st world country rates like the USA

we can run some
theoretical models based on basic human cultural behaviors
no face masks
lots of community items handed back n forth, daily food markets where people shop daily.
close family human to human contact groups sharing the same plate of food shifting mucus from mouth to finger to shared food on shared plate.
normalized high density close contact personal space dynamics
nutrition issues

we can probably expect the spike to be on the lack of hospital care side rather than co-morbidity side like it would be in the usa.