Put your diapers on before reading this. Possible nuclear war. For real.

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Happeh, Jan 30, 2006.

  1. Happeh Registered Senior Member

    World War III begins in a series of miscalculations and disruptions.

    Conplan 8022
    In January 2003, Bush signed a classified presidential directive, Conplan 8022-02. This is a war plan different from all prior in that it posits "no ground troops". It was specifically drafted to deal with "imminent" threats from states such as North Korea and Iran.

    Unlike the warplan for Iraq, a conventional one, which required coordinated preparation of air, ground and sea forces before it could be launched, a process of months, even years, Conplan 8022 called for a highly concentrated strike combining bombing with electronic warfare and cyberattacks to cripple an opponent's response-cutting electricity in the country, jamming communications and hacking computer networks.

    Conplan 8022 explicitly includes a nuclear option, specially configured earth-penetrating "mini" nukes to hit underground sites such as Iran's. Last summer, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld approved a top secret "Interim Global Strike Alert Order" directing around-the-clock military readiness to be directed by the Omaha-based Strategic Command (Stratcom), according to a report in the May 15 Washington Post.

    Previously, ominously enough, Stratcom oversaw only the US nuclear forces. In January 2003, Bush signed on to a definition of "full spectrum global strike", which included precision nuclear as well as conventional bombs, and space warfare. This was a follow-up to the president's September 2002 National Security Strategy, which laid out as US strategic doctrine a policy of "preemptive" wars.

    The burning question is whether, with plunging popularity polls, a coming national election, scandals and loss of influence, the Bush White House might "think the unthinkable" and order a nuclear preemptive global strike on Iran before the November elections, perhaps early after the March 28 Israeli elections.

    Some Pentagon analysts have suggested that the entire US strategy towards Iran, unlike with Iraq, is rather a carefully orchestrated escalation of psychological pressure and bluff to force Iran to back down. It seems clear, especially in light of the strategic threat Iran faces from US or Israeli forces on its borders after 2003, that Iran is not likely to back down from its clear plans to develop full nuclear fuel cycle capacities, and with it the option of developing an Iranian nuclear capability.

    The question then is, what will Washington do? The fundamental change in US defense doctrine since 2001, from a posture of defense to offense, has significantly lowered the threshold of nuclear war, perhaps even of a global nuclear conflagration.

    Geopolitical risks of nuclear war
    The latest Iranian agreement to reopen talks with Moscow on Russian spent fuel reprocessing has taken some of the edge off of the crisis for the moment. On Friday, Bush announced publicly that he backed the Russian compromise, along with China and ElBaradei of the IAEA. Bush signaled a significant backdown, at least for the moment, stating, "The Russians came up with the idea and I support it ... I do believe people ought to be allowed to have civilian nuclear power."

    At the same time, Rice's State Department expressed concern the Russian-Iran talks were a stalling ploy by Tehran. Bush added. "However, I don't believe that non-transparent [sic] regimes that threaten the security of the world should be allowed to gain the technologies necessary to make a weapon." The same day at Davos, Rice told the World Economic Forum that Iran's nuclear program posed "significant danger" and that Iran must be brought before the UN Security Council. In short, Washington is trying to appear "diplomatic" while keeping all options open.

    Should Iran be brought before the UN Security Council for violations of the NPT and charges of developing weapons of mass destruction, it seems quite probable that Russia and China will veto imposing sanctions, such as an economic embargo on Iran, for the reasons stated above. The timetable for that is likely some time about March-May, that is, after a new Israeli government is in place.

    At that point there are several possible outcomes.

    # The IAEA refers Iran to the UN Security Council, which proposes increased monitoring of the reprocessing facilities for weapons producing while avoiding sanctions. In essence, Iran would be allowed to develop its full fuel cycle nuclear program and its sovereignty is respected, so long as it respects NPT and IAEA conditions. This is unlikely for the reasons stated above.
    # Iran, like India and Pakistan, is permitted to develop a small arsenal of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to the growing military threat in its area posed by the US from Afghanistan to Iraq to the Emirates, as well as by Israel's nuclear force.

    The West extends new offers of economic cooperation in the development of Iran's oil and gas infrastructure and Iran is slowly welcomed into the community of the World Trade Organization and cooperation with the West. A new government in Israel pursues a peace policy in Palestine and with Syria, and a new regional relaxation of tensions opens the way for huge new economic development in the entire Middle East region, Iran included. The mullahs in Iran slowly loose influence. This scenario, desirable as it is, is extremely unlikely in the present circumstances.
    # Bush, on the urging of Cheney, Rumsfeld and the neo-conservative hawks, decides to activate Conplan 8022, an air attack bombing of Iran's presumed nuclear sites, including, for the first time since 1945, with deployment of nuclear weapons. No ground troops are used and it is proclaimed a swift surgical "success" by the formidable Pentagon propaganda machine. Iran, prepared for such a possibility, launches a calculated counter-strike using techniques of guerrilla war or "asymmetrical warfare" against US and NATO targets around the world.

    The Iran response includes activating trained cells within Lebanon's Hezbollah; it includes activating considerable Iranian assets within Iraq, potentially in de facto alliance with the Sunni resistance there targeting the 135,000 remaining US troops and civilian personnel. Iran's asymmetrical response also includes stepping up informal ties to the powerful Hamas within Palestine to win them to a Holy War against the US-Israel "Great Satan" Alliance.

    Israel faces unprecedented terror and sabotage attacks from every side and from within its territory from sleeper cells of Arab Israelis. Iran activates trained sleeper terror cells in the Ras Tanura center of Saudi oil refining and shipping. The Eastern province of Saudi Arabia around Ras Tanura contains a disenfranchised Shi'ite minority, which has historically been denied the fruits of the immense Saudi oil wealth. There are some 2 million Shi'ite Muslims in Saudi Arabia. Shi'ites do most of the manual work in the Saudi oilfields, making up 40% of Aramco's workforce.

    Iran declares an immediate embargo of deliveries of its 4 million barrels of oil a day. It threatens to sink a large oil super-tanker in the narrows of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 40% of all world oil flows, if the world does not join it against the US-Israeli action.

    The strait has two 1-mile-wide channels for marine traffic, separated by a 2-mile-wide buffer zone, and is the only sea passage to the open ocean for much of OPEC oil. It is Saudi Arabia's main export route.

    Iran is a vast, strategically central expanse of land, more than double the land area of France and Germany combined, with well over 70 million people and one of the fastest population growth rates in the world. It is well prepared for a new Holy War. Its mountainous terrain makes any thought of a US ground occupation inconceivable at a time the Pentagon is having problems retaining its present force to maintain the Iraq and Afghanistan occupations. World War III begins in a series of miscalculations and disruptions. The Pentagon's awesome war machine, "total spectrum dominance" is powerless against the growing "asymmetrical war" assaults around the globe.

    Clear from a reading of their public statements and their press, the Iranian government knows well what cards its holds and what not in this global game of thermonuclear chicken.

    Were the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld axis to risk launching a nuclear strike on Iran, given the geopolitical context, it would mark a point of no return in international relations. Even with sagging popularity, the White House knows this. The danger of the initial strategy of preemptive wars is that, as now, when someone like Iran calls the US bluff with a formidable response potential, the US is left with little option but to launch the unthinkable - nuclear strike.

    There are saner voices within the US political establishment, such as former National Security Council heads, Brent Scowcroft or even Zbigniew Brzezinski, who clearly understand the deadly logic of Bush's and the Pentagon hawks' preemptive posture. The question is whether their faction within the US power establishment today is powerful enough to do to Bush and Cheney what was done to Richard Nixon when his exercise of presidential power got out of hand.

    It is useful to keep in mind that even were Iran to possess nuclear missiles, the strike range would not reach the territory of the US. Israel would be the closest potential target. A US preemptive nuclear strike to defend Israel would raise the issue of what the military agreements between Tel Aviv and Washington actually encompass, a subject neither the Bush administration nor its predecessors have seen fit to inform the American public about.
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  3. mars13 give me liberty Registered Senior Member

    W's had the nuclear option for 5 years.

    none of this is news to me.
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  5. Happeh Registered Senior Member

    An explosion Monday at a company in Jacksonville, Florida, that makes airplane, helicopter and military parts injured one person and may have exposed up to 40 others to minor levels of radiation, Jacksonville Fire Rescue spokesman Tom Francis said.

    The explosion occurred at Unison Industries. The cause was not immediately known.

    According to Francis, the level of possible radiation exposure was low -- approximately equivalent to an X-ray.

    But employees who were in the vicinity of the explosion were being decontaminated as a precaution, he added.

    Francis said there was no threat to people living in the area.

    One person "slightly injured" in the explosion was taken to a hospital, Francis said.

    A company Web site said Unison makes alternators and generators for various types of aircraft and ignition control generators for Tomahawk cruise missiles.

    Calls to Unison were not returned.
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  7. Communist Hamster Cricetulus griseus leninus Valued Senior Member

  8. spidergoat your cows have come home to roost Valued Senior Member

    Good, I'm starting to think it's got to get worse before it gets better.
  9. cato less hate, more science Registered Senior Member

    happeh is such a troll.
  10. QuarkMoon I Registered Senior Member

    Has anyone noticed that the majority of United States conspiracies come from outside the nation? People who live in other countries thinking they know everything that goes on here. What's even more sad is that these conspiracy theories never cme true, and yet they are still at it! Get a life! Worry about your own country, the United States isn't free of corruption but neither is your country.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

  11. Neildo Gone Registered Senior Member

    Well I don't doubt the use of mini-nukes against Iran. Most wars are test beds for new technology. If we got em, we wanna use em.

    - N
  12. Light Registered Senior Member

    Yes, that's exactly what it means. There probably was a communist government "employee" who arrived in a black helio that cut down the concrete pole the worker was on, causing him to fall and be killed.

    It's also begun where I live. My lights at home flickered for about five seconds last week. Obviously that was a signal to those in the know to pack up and leave the country.

    Our enemies in China, having read posts here urging a pre-emptive nuclear strike on their homeland have figured out that electricity is the lifeblood of our nation. They then activated their "sleeper" agents, executives inside the U.S. power company and cookie manufacturers, to begin Operation Brown-Down as a prelude to the invasion of North America - Operation Yellow-In.
  13. AmishRakeFight Remember, remember. Registered Senior Member

    Laugh out loud.
  14. AmishRakeFight Remember, remember. Registered Senior Member

    Simon says...come out of your bunker. Simon says... please provide sources.
  15. Happeh Registered Senior Member

    You people are an embarrassment to the community of scientists.

    I clearly said this article came from a source that is read by the white house. It was the most clear, cogent, insightful and thourough article I have read about the world situation in a few years.

    And you are talking about conspiracy. I bet most of you were unable to read past the second paragraph.


    You are why Bush and Blair invaded Iraq with lies about WMD. You are children the adults send out to the yard to play while they get the adult stuff done.
  16. The Devil Inside Banned Banned

    happeh...i HAVE to ask...
    what is your avatar a picture of?
  17. Happeh Registered Senior Member

    a baby
  18. Communist Hamster Cricetulus griseus leninus Valued Senior Member

    What significance does it have?
  19. Dudish dude Look out behind you...ZOMBIE!! Registered Senior Member

    Good point, i thought this was a about america having nukes or something (i couldnt be bothered to read the whole thing)
  20. AmishRakeFight Remember, remember. Registered Senior Member

    I literally laughed out loud. Congratulations. Your right Happeh, I didn't want to read the whole thing. I took at look at the title, took a look at the length of the post, and typed my response. In fact, when googled, it brings up these sources as well.

    http://www.abbaswatchman.com/NEWS CONPLAN.html

  21. Happeh Registered Senior Member


    A massive explosion at a chemical plant Tuesday injured 14 people, setting off a smoky blaze that led to the temporary evacuation of nearby residents.

    Two of the 12 employees inside the Synthron Inc. plant at the time of the 11:30 a.m. blast were seriously injured, plant vice president Randy Cox said Tuesday afternoon. Windows were blown out as much as a third of a mile away and a house across the street from the plant was moved off its foundation.

    By mid-afternoon, officials allowed residents who had voluntarily evacuated because of the smoke to return to their homes. They were advised to keep their windows closed and ventilation systems turned off, said police Sgt. Scott Rogers.

    "Everything looks good at this point, just the way it's dissipating," said Morganton police Capt. Ronnie Rector.

    State water and air quality officials were at the site, monitoring conditions and checking to see if runoff into creeks posed any threat to the nearby Catawba River, the source of drinking water for much of central North Carolina and South Carolina.

    The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board said it was dispatching a team from Washington to assess the explosion and fire and determine whether a formal investigation is needed.

  22. android nothing human inside Registered Senior Member

    Good! Humanity's a waste of time.
  23. Communist Hamster Cricetulus griseus leninus Valued Senior Member

    Happeh is turning into MattMarr.

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