Presidential predictions for 2024?

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The Klan, and Other Notes

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It's worth observing that on Saturday, Proud Boys↱ marched in Springfield, Ohio, and the Ku Klux Klan↱ officially arrived. On Sunday morning, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, went on CNN and boasted that he was making up the pet story↱:

Dana Bash: … He didn't say anything about the policies that you're talking about, he just said Haitians are eating dogs and cats. Can you affirmatively say, now, that that is a rumor that has no basis with evidence?

J.D. Vance: Dana, the evidence is the first-hand account of my constituents who are telling me that this happened, and, by the way, I've been trying to talk about the problems in Springfield for months, and the American media ignored it. There was a Congressional hearing, just last week, of Angel Moms, who lost children because Kamala Harris let criminal migrants into this country, who then murdered their children. The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes. If I have to―

Bash: But it wasn't just a meme.

Vance: ―If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that's what I'm going to do, Dana, because you guys are completely letting Kamala Harris coast. You had one interview with her. You talk about pushing back against me, Dana? You didn't push back against the fact that she cast the deciding vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which is why a lot of Americans can't afford food and housing. We ought to be talking about public policy.

Bash: You just said you were creating this story.

Vance: [five seconds of silence]

Bash: Sir, you just said you're creating this story.

Vance: What's that Dana?

Bash: You just said that this is a story you created―

Vance: Yes.

Bash: ―so the eating dogs and cats thing―

Vance: We are cr―... We are creating―

Bash: ―is not accurate.

Vance: We are creating, we are creating― Dana, it comes from first-hand accounts from my constituents. I say that we're creating a story meaning we're creating the American media focusing on it. I didn't create twenty-thousand illegal migrants coming into Springfield thanks to Kamala Harris' policies. Her policies did that, but yes, we created the actual focus that allowed the American media to talk about the story and the suffering caused by Kamala Harris' policies.

A couple things to note: It's not twenty-thousand; they are in the country legally; local officials and business owners actually wanted them in Springfield, and appreciate their work and community ethics.

Moreover, notice Vance's actual words. At no time does he say a certain thing conclusively; the nearest he gets is, "We've created the actual focus that allowed the American media to talk about the story". It's not wrong; he helped create the focus.

But wait, there's more↱:

Vance: Can I make just one more final point about this, Dana―

Bash: Please. Yes, please.

Vance: You've heard a lot of the media focusing on every possible distraction from the story in Springfield. You've heard them focus on these Proud Boys marches; you've heard, just in this interview, Dana, the suggestion that because some psychopath is calling in a bomb threat, somehow we have to then ignore forty-thousand Springfieldians―

Bash: That is not what I said.

Vance: ―who are having their lives worsened by Kamala Harris' policies? Well, what is the implication, Dana? I'd actually love to have this conversation―

Bash: Yeah.

Vance: ―right now, live on air.

Bash: Right.

Vance: What is the implication when you say, "You calling out these problems has caused a bomb threat"? You accused me of causing a bomb threat. Doesn't that mean you should shut up about the residents of Springfield? Don't you realize you're engaged in basic propaganda [(Bash protests)] to silence the concerns of American citizens? Please.

Bash: I was quoting the actual mayor of Springfield, Ohio, begging, after the ... he said, after the bomb threat, begging federal officials, you, to please stop putting negative attention on his city. And I'm not talking about the policies, I'm not talking about the very real challenges that Springfield has. I'm talking about baseless rumors about Haitians eating dogs and cats, and after that was said on a debate stage, that is when these bomb threats started. And that is a fact. Senator, I just to move on, I have two other quick issues, separate from this, that I want to talk to you about.

Vance: No, Dana, Dana―

Bash: Go ahead. Please. Go ahead.

Vance: I think this is actually, I think this is an important conversation.

Bash: Okay.

Vance: Look, the Springfield mayor, he's dealing with a lot of terrible things. I certainly sympathize with the guy and we're going to try to help him out, but he did not accuse me of inciting a bomb threat. He just didn't. And if we're going to take the first-hand accounts of people who are on the ground in Springfield, why don't you bring on some of the people on your program who say that the migrants are eating their pets? You're implying a double-standard, you're saying if one person accuses J.D. Vance, I'm going to take that person's word―

Bash: You have somebody whose―

Vance: ―as the gospel truth―

Bash: ―you have somebody whose name―

Vance: ―even if you misrepresented. If you have another person who says they're eating the cats, you're going to ignore them, attack them, silence them, and harrass them, that double-standard is why the people don't trust the media and why we're not talking about public policy fifty-one days out from presidential election.

Bash: Okay, if you have somebody you want to tell us about, who has proof that somebody ate their cat, of course we want to hear that. We certainly have had no evidence that that is actually something that happened, and I just want to say, I have not accused you of anything, I am quoting the mayor who said, after these bomb threats, "federal politicians are negatively spinning our city. They need to know they are hurting our city; it was their words that did it". Okay? I'm quoting him, and it seems to be a cause and effect.

Vance: Dana, roll the tape, you just accused me of inciting a bomb threat. There's no evidence of this. I condemn violence and threats of violence. We should be able to do that and also still talk about what's going on in Springfield.

Bash: I'm glad to hear that you condemn it, that is very important ....

It is an interesting experience to watch a professional journalist like Dana Bash try to field internet-grade gas. Sen. Vance was approximately on par with some of the more determined rightist trolling we might even find here. There is an underlying chauvinism that is important to understand: It's not simply that other narratives are not valid, but that they don't exist at all. Vance's approach was not to make his argument work within the facts, but to impose his narrative on reality. The mayor of Springfield, for instance: The mayor disagrees with Vance, so what the mayor says does not exist; that's why Vance says Bash accused him. She can quote the mayor all she wants, but for Vance it starts with her because the mayor's narrative doesn't really exist and therefore when she conveys to him something that doesn't exist, it starts with her.

Just like the point that the whole fearmongering pet story isn't real; journalists and activists have tracked its source, even right-wingers have offered cash rewards for evidence in support of the story, and nothing affirmative emerges. So Vance demands, "why don't you bring on some of the people on your program who say that the migrants are eating their pets", and the gamble is that people don't realize the reason we haven't heard from these individuals is that nobody is coming forward. I've had that kind of two-bit discussion many, many times over the years; it's troll-grade excrement, the kind of behavior that can only be validated by omission, and can only be protected by free speech of cacophony.

It's not impossible that we might, before election day, hear Vance fall back to complaining that "everyone who disagrees with you gets called racist", or some such. That's the range he's running in.
 
Notes on #881↑ above

@atrupar. "Vance claims he and Trump have to 'create stories' about migrants eating cats and dogs 'so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people.' There is then some awkward dead air as Bash tries to highlight the absurdity of what he just said". X. 15 September 2024. X.com. 16 September 2024. status/1835309555938480462

—————. "Vance winds down the interview by trying to shame Bash for fact-checking him: 'Doesn't that mean you should shut up about the residents of Springfield?' Vance then challenges Bash to bring on a person who claims migrants have eaten their cat." X. 15 September 2024. X.com. 16 September 2024. status/1835312277618118707

@nlanard. "What's now being distributed in Springfield, according to a local pastor". X. 14 September 2024. X.com. 16 September 2024. status/1835046358488666458

@ScooterCasterNY. "NOW: Proud Boys marching in Springfield Ohio". X. 14 September 2024. X.com. 16 September 2024. status/1835053886505148661

 
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One thing worth noticing is the political language: "And wouldn't you know it," Steve Benen↱ observes, "Trump's position started to evolve." It's funny because it actually is something of a flip-flop, but evolution of poltical positions has confused conservatives for generations, now.

Okay, okay, given that it actually is a flip-flop, Benen eventually uses the term: "By flip-flopping on the issue, Trump could pick up support—and campaign contributions—from some of the industry's wealthiest players."

Short-form: Despite prior skepticism of cryptocurrency, Trump will launch a cryptocurrency. "Whether we like it or not," the formerly skeptical former president said, "I have to do it."

But if we stick with a cheap flip-flop, instead of something more subtle, we might overlook a few important things:

First, there's the dramatic reversal. The same guy who saw crypto as a "disaster waiting to happen" apparently now sees crypto as a money-making opportunity that he "has" to pursue.

Second, those looking to Trump to explain his new venture are going to be disappointed. As an Associated Press report noted, the candidate "did not discuss specifics about World Liberty Financial on Monday or how it would work." That's true. In fact, when offered an opportunity to elaborate on his latest business opportunity, the former president appeared quite clueless and quickly changed the subject.

Third, Trump has chosen a curious group of business partners. The Times' report noted that the Republican's team includes two "little-known crypto entrepreneurs with no experience running a high-profile business." The article added, "On the livestream, he did not address the project directly, leaving the details to the two entrepreneurs, Chase Herro and Zachary Folkman. Mr. Herro has described himself as 'the dirtbag of the internet,' while Mr. Folkman used to teach classes on how to seduce women."

Fourth, even Trump's allies believe he's on the wrong track. Politico recently quoted Nic Carter, a Trump supporter who is a founding partner at a crypto-focused venture capital firm, who said, in reference to the former president's new venture, "This is a huge mistake. It looks like Trump's inner circle is just cashing in on his recent embrace of crypto in a kind of naive way, and frankly it looks like they're burning a lot of the good will that's been built with the industry so far."

And, speaking of political langauge, Benen notes the NYT report, "It’s highly unusual for a presidential candidate to embark on a new business just weeks before Election Day," which in turn is about as straightforward and apolitical as that sentence could possibly be. Even more so inasmuch as the crypto venture is ostensibly separate from the political endeavor. It's still political, though; Benen reminds, "We’re talking about a politician who appears to meander from one get-rich-quick opportunity to the next, without much regard for merit or dignity."

Which is also pretty straightforward, y'know, because it's true.

And if there is anything about this venture that doesn't sound like a bad joke, speak now or forever ... uh ... sit back and laugh? How badly can this go?

To wit, it's one thing if Trump is somehow planning for post-political life, but even still, there's almost no way this ends well.
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Notes:

Benen, Steve. "Looking for cash, Trump launches a new family crypto project". MSNBC. 17 September 2024. MSNBC.com. 17 September 2024. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...launches-new-family-crypto-project-rcna171431
 
In fact, when offered an opportunity to elaborate on his latest business opportunity, the former president appeared quite clueless and quickly changed the subject.
Hey, he understands it almost as well as he understands tariffs and deportation procedures.
 
For those that would rather see him destitute and struggling, this scheme may well disappoint. If he was a no-body then either a new currency linked to his name, or a crypto exchange (I've read different ideas as to what this project actually is, or whether it is bith), there are likely enough foolish people who will buy into it, much like his DJT stock, such that he might make a small fortune simply because of his name, even if it screws Joe Public investor into the ground to do so.

He clearly has no clue about it, but then he does sort of admit that, while at the same time trying to assure everyone it's the best thing ever.
And whatever the underlying idea is behind the scheme, the fact that they initially indicated that 70% of the tokens would be for the founders/Trump, but even the 20% that it has been reduced to in the latest details, suggests it really is nothing more than a cash-grab, like his DJT stock.

But more than anything else it shows quite clearly what Trump's priorities are at the moment. It's not his campaign. It's not trying to be President. It's not the American people. It's the promotion of something completely separate that could make him lots of money. Trump bibles, shoes, whiskey glasses, DJT stock, and now this.
Ah, well.
When he's in prison there will be less news like this, I guess.
 
When he's in prison there will be less news like this, I guess.
He'll never go to prison. They'll keep putting off the sentencing, and then the carrying out of sentence, until he's too old and sick to bother with. I doubt any law-enforcement or corrections officers want to deal with the fallout from jailing the cult figure of a heavily armed mob of loonies.
 
It's not his campaign. It's not trying to be President.
It IS trying to be president, because with the presidency he gets everything else he wants. The White House press office to sell shoes. That get-out-of-jail-free card. Revenge on his political enemies. More money from China and Russia.

All this shoes-n-bitcoin nonsense is him trying to fund that attempt.
 
#HowItStarted | #HowItsGoing

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So it was that on CNN, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) tried to turn the tables↑ on Dana Bash: "Why don't you bring on some of the people on your program who say that the migrants are eating their pets?" the Republican vice presidential nominee demanded. National Review editor laughed his way through a slip in which he used the most infamous racist pejorative to describe Hatian migrants, recalling Dana Bash: "Dana Bash says police have gone through eleven months of recordings of calls and they've only found two Springfield residents calling to complain about Haitian nigger―m-m-uh―migrants taking geese from ponds," Rich Lowry explained↗.

Despite complaining to CNN, Vance offered up a witness to the Wall Street Journal. Justin Baragona↱ explains how that went:

The Vance campaign provided the Wall Street Journal with a police report to prove their claims about cat-eating Haitians in Springfield.

The WSJ spoke to the woman who filed it, who said she later found her cat alive and well in her basement. She also apologized to her Haitian neighbors.

According to the quoted excerpt, Anna Kilgore said her cat, Miss Sassy, "had actually returned a few days later", and that the Ohio Trumpfan "apologized to her Haitian neighbors with the help of her daughter and a mobile-phone translation app."

Inasmuch as Vance's gamble was that people don't realize the reason we haven't heard from these individuals is that nobody is coming forward, now we know why. Note that the Vance team appears to have not vetted the police report; had they gone to check with the reporting individual, they probably wouldn't have tried to pass off this case as their supporting evidence. Or maybe not; city officials say they told the Vance team the claims weren't true.

The WSJ article↱ is titled, "How the Trump Campaign Ran With Rumors About Pet-Eating Migrants—After Being Told They Weren’t True"; the subhead explains, "Springfield, Ohio, city officials were contacted by Vance’s team and said the claims were baseless. It didn’t matter and now the town is in chaos." And that was on 9 September; the campaign knew before Trump's debate performance, and well before Vance's CNN appearance challenging Dana Bash.

Consider that we're now at nine years since Trump rode down his golden escalator and people started making excuses for the racism. Because this is what it always meant: Consider the prospect that paternalism↗ and condescension↗ forced people to vote for Trump; now we see what offended them so. It wasn't just that he said what was on his mind, but what they wanted to hear. So, yes, it was the racism.

And those who tried to shield Trump voters from this criticism over the last nine years, or conservatives at any point in the last thirty years, probably ought to be embarrassed. It's one thing if the majority of Trump supporters have other reasons↗ to vote for him, but between cyclical and circumstantial attention given to busting unions, collecting guns, disrupting health care, and pampering the wealthy, it is, in fact, supremacism that remains the durable appeal present in every electoral cycle.

Now we've got neo-Nazis and the Klan turning out in public, trying to intimidate people in Ohio and elsewhere, and we can only wonder if those totally not supremacist defenders of supremacist faith are even capable of recognizing that they probably cannot deliver the full range of genuinely embarrassed apologies they owe, and cannot be trusted until they demonstrate themselves capable of conducting themselves decently.

(Hint: Saying it with a smile doesn't automatically make it not antisocial; pretenses of polite supremacism are still supremacist.)​

†​

It is fashionable in some circles to pretend that historical criticism is the same manner of superficial argument as whatever is in fashion among the fashionable. These critics scold that someone should think a little more deeply, remind what someone should have learned, or suggests a refusal to understand, among others. And the truthy part of such criticism is that it is possible for these things to be true about pretty much anyone. In recent times, one retort is to suggest every accusation is some sort of confession, but that refers to a particular phenomenon that really shouldn't be happening, an extraordinarily rarefied range.

And in these scolding occasions, sure, the truthy generalization could easily be as true of the scold as anyone else. Part of what these moralizing wags rely on is a pretense of perpetual newness. From near or far, some viewpoints require an underlying fallacy of historical independence and inefficacy, in which any number of data points can be said to exist and have common attributes, but have nothing to do with each other; the whole pretense is underpinned by an accusation of hasty generalization.

And like the line about reality having a well-known left-leaning bias, the dynamic of this retort against logic and history alike will continue to work a certain way, and generally not another, until circumstances change significantly.

Because the thing is that if history is interdependent and effective, then nobody should ever be surprised that it comes to this. We're now in a recognizable period of history repeating itself, and we must consider whether the reason people didn't learn from history is that they just plain didn't want to.
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Notes:

@justinbaragona. "The Vance campaign provided the Wall Street Journal with a police report to prove their claims about cat-eating Haitians in Springfield. The WSJ spoke to the woman who filed it, who said she later found her cat alive and well in her basement. She also apologized to her Haitian neighbors." X. 18 September 2024. X.com. 18 September 2024. status/1836401322540544289

Maher, Kris, Valerie Bauerlein, and Tawnell D. Hobbs. "How the Trump Campaign Ran With Rumors About Pet-Eating Migrants—After Being Told They Weren’t True". The Wall Street Journal. 18 September 2024. WSJ.com. 18 September 2024. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/springfield-ohio-pet-eating-claims-haitian-migrants-04598d48
 
It IS trying to be president, because with the presidency he gets everything else he wants. The White House press office to sell shoes. That get-out-of-jail-free card. Revenge on his political enemies. More money from China and Russia.

All this shoes-n-bitcoin nonsense is him trying to fund that attempt.
It might be what he wants, but I don't think its his priority. I see his priorities as making money, and staying out of prison. The Presidency he sees as just a means to those ends, but if he could achieve them another way he would.
If being president was truly his priority he'd be doing a much better job. Being president is about wanting the best for others, the best for the country. He doesn't want that. He wants all the parts that serve his narcissism, not to actually be everything that is the President.
If both sides had offered to drop all charges against him if he dropped out of the race at the start, I have no doubt he'd have done so.
 
The WSJ spoke to the woman who filed it, who said she later found her cat alive and well in her basement. She also apologized to her Haitian neighbors.

According to the quoted excerpt, Anna Kilgore said her cat, Miss Sassy, "had actually returned a few days later", and that the Ohio Trumpfan "apologized to her Haitian neighbors with the help of her daughter and a mobile-phone translation app."



Has Sassy been sat down for an interview ?

Pretty obvious to any Maga ,non Rino objective reporter that she was "returned" because President Trump and Vice President Vance refused to let the story drop and the kidnappers (the catnappers actually) were forced to return their intended victim (god only can guess what was their real intention) to its rightful and grieving real American citizen.

No doubt it "returned" under cover of dark and with stories you wouldn't believe if it could speak (but Leon Musk can probably interrogate the poor animal with one of his neuralink machines)


Also Miss Kilgore should be pressed as to whether the palms of her hands had been greased by any Iranian to get her to change her story or whether she was just doing it to protect Sassy.(seems a strange name for a cat that should really be just well behaved but that is another story)
 
So, looks like Trump and Vance could be hit with criminal charges in Ohio resulting from their spreading of lies about the Haitians in Springfield...


Ohio allows private citizens, I believe, to take complaints to the courts, who will then decide whether to proceed with indictments or not. Interesting times! :) Of course, MAGA will claim this is nothing more than the weaponisation of the Justice system by the Communist left.
 
Of course, MAGA will claim this is nothing more than the weaponisation of the Justice system by the Communist left.

And for all of the cornball stuff that goes on in retail politics, the disconnection between the Hillbilly of the Couch and Ohio voters is striking. Think of it this way: One of the people who ought to know this is possible, i.e., the U.S. Senator from Ohio, apparently didn't.

There's a TV spot for a casino in my area, and it features three guys in the bar while one fills out a sporting wager, and this one time I mentioned it to my brother, asking if the script made any sense to him, because I don't bet on sports, and that script sounded like complete bullshit. Unexpectedly, he huffed and fumed; not only is it a a complete bullshit script, but the actors couldn't read the lines right, and nobody could be bothered to get a clean take; they shouldn't even run the spot, it's so bad. And I confess, I wasn't expecting that answer. It's a terrible spot, but I didn't expect him to be angry about it. I think what does it is that we both know the stereotype they were aiming for; it's a bro-thing not unfamiliar to us, but these guys are remarkably awful. The intention of the advert is to appeal to cameraderie in gambling as a social experience; the effect is to insult the audience.

And when J.D. Vance talks, he reminds me of someone trying to do that bit, but he doesn't know how. And since the original bit is intended to be kind of stupid and naïve, anyway, he comes across as a creepy liar.
 
Of course, MAGA will claim this is nothing more than the weaponisation of the Justice system by the Communist left.
They will have a little trouble with this one since it's coming directly from the people. But they can just call those people dog-eaters, or communists, or bitches and sluts (if they are women.)
 
I'm not the betting type (apparently until now). However I just bet $100 that Harris will win the Presidential election. I'll either lose $100 or I'll get that $100 back plus $134.

It has been illegal for Americans to bet on US elections. Polymarket does it but it's not based in the US and it (still) doesn't take US bets on elections. There is a court case that just made it legal and it is being appealed but as of now it's legal and it will be through the election.

In the US we can use Kalshi. The polls favor Harris, the betting sites generally favor Trump. I like the idea of knowing what people think on issues when they have put their own money on it but I don't really trust it with elections and especially with little liquidity Trump backers could move the needle (and I think they have).

So, I wouldn't bet on these conclusions or on polls. This is just for fun, an experiment and it's only based on Professor Allen Litchtman's (objective) "keys" methodology that has more or less been accurate starting with the Reagan election and back tested through 1900.

It's also interesting since there is such divergence between the polls and the betting and Presidential elections only come around every 4 years and we are only 2 weeks away so this is just a (fun) way to put my money where my mouth is regarding Litchtman. It's also a good return, percentage wise) which usually wouldn't be the case.

Of course I can be wrong and if I am, I lose $ 100.
 
I'm not the betting type (apparently until now). However I just bet $100 that Harris will win the Presidential election. I'll either lose $100 or I'll get that $100 back plus $134.
That tends to be the way of betting: you either lose, or you win. ;)
 
It has been illegal for Americans to bet on US elections.
I've always found this strange considering everything that is legal with respect to campaign finances and suchlike, and whatever the hell it is the Elon Musk is doing right now (How can that be legal?). Not exactly the same thing, but not wholly dissimilar either.
 
I'm new to this. Actually $80 is all I can lose and $154 ($254 total) is what I would win since they add $20 when you place your first bet.
Dude, you're down to your last 80 dollars and you're risking it all on a bet?!
 
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