Presidential predictions for 2024?

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Trump's lawyer's argument are weak but as far as your point about not being able to impeach someone if they have already resigned, that's not clear. There is argument both ways on that one.
Yep - just found this, which sets it out quite nicely:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10565

As you say, there are arguments both ways, and no doubt any decision would eventually go to the Supreme Court, where they would (with my cynic's hat firmly on) probably side the way that served "their guy" the best. ;)
 
Yep - just found this, which sets it out quite nicely:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10565

As you say, there are arguments both ways, and no doubt any decision would eventually go to the Supreme Court, where they would (with my cynic's hat firmly on) probably side the way that served "their guy" the best. ;)
It doesn't really matter. We aren't ultimately going to get rid of the Trump disease in the courts.
 
Trump's lawyer's argument are weak but as far as your point about not being able to impeach someone if they have already resigned, that's not clear. There is argument both ways on that one.
And therein is the problem. There will always be those that
I'm not sure which existing thread to post this, but since it could impact the Presidential outcome, here seems as good as any:

Anyhoo - the DC Court of Appeals has been grilling the lawyers on both sides of Trump's claim of Presidential Immunity. Trump's position (or at least that of his lawyers) is that a President must be impeached and convicted by the Senate before any criminal litigation can be carried out in the judicial system. So if the President isn't impeached and found guilty by Senate for an action they have undertaken while in office then they can not be tried in a court of law. Irrespective of what that action is.

One of the judges pointedly asked the lawyer to consider the example of a President who ordered Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and asked whether they could subsequently be tried in a court of law. Trump's lawyer said, words to the effect, that they could but only if they had first been impeached and convicted by the Senate.
That is such a frightening position to take.

So if the President did such, but then resigned prior to the impeachment process (e.g. Nixon resigned so as to avoid impeachment), Trump's lawyer is arguing that they could not then be held accountable in a criminal court of law. As such, any President, on the last day of their term, and not seeking re-election, they could do anything they wanted, criminal or otherwise, because (as I understand it) they could not subsequently be impeached and found guilty by the Senate - as no longer being in office.

This is what Trump is arguing for, through his lawyers. That is what he constantly appeals to as "Absolute Presidential Immunity".
And c.50% of America want to vote for him??????
Why would a President who was willing to assassinate a political rival think about resigning before being impeached? Any congressman showing willingness ( or even be suspected of it) to impeach would immediately be seen as a "political rival" and have a target on his back, and would know it. That would pretty much snuff out any chance of an impeachment conviction.
 
Why would a President who was willing to assassinate a political rival think about resigning before being impeached? Any congressman showing willingness ( or even be suspected of it) to impeach would immediately be seen as a "political rival" and have a target on his back, and would know it. That would pretty much snuff out any chance of an impeachment conviction.
Indeed. Scary.
The example I gave was the one that was just raised in the Appeal Court, by one of the judges, to try to understand Trump's lawyer's argument. But other commentary has expanded on it, as you have, to say that the President could then effectively threaten everyone in the Senate so as never to be impeached.

Interestingly, the "absolute immunity" that Trump is now seeking in the Appeal Court, where he would be free from prosecution once no longer President for anything he did while President, runs contrary to his own lawyer's arguments during an earlier hearing in the Senate, where his lawyer said that if they think he (Trump) has committed a crime then they could arrest him after he has left office - i.e. that there is no immunity for such things.
 
I see, according to one of the online betting sites, that as of now the implied probability of winning the 2024 Presidential are as follows (I'm just giving a few at the top) Trump 47.6%, Biden 34.8%, Haley 7.7%.
 
I see, according to one of the online betting sites, that as of now the implied probability of winning the 2024 Presidential are as follows (I'm just giving a few at the top) Trump 47.6%, Biden 34.8%, Haley 7.7%.
I thought Biden was a shoe-in for Democratic nominee? If so then the betting site is suggesting the Dems only have a sub-40% chance of winning the election??
 
I see, according to one of the online betting sites, that as of now the implied probability of winning the 2024 Presidential are as follows (I'm just giving a few at the top) Trump 47.6%, Biden 34.8%, Haley 7.7%.
Yep.

Trump getting the nomination is fairly good news for democrats. Trump is the only person Biden can win against, and while he is currently seeing better numbers than Biden, most republicans say they won't vote for a convicted felon. And even if he beats 99% of the charges against him, he will still be a convicted felon.

His only chance to survive now is to delay all his trials as much as possible so he can win the election, then pardon himself.
 
Yep.

Trump getting the nomination is fairly good news for democrats. Trump is the only person Biden can win against, and while he is currently seeing better numbers than Biden, most republicans say they won't vote for a convicted felon. And even if he beats 99% of the charges against him, he will still be a convicted felon.

His only chance to survive now is to delay all his trials as much as possible so he can win the election, then pardon himself.

I think the betting site would be considering all that and still come up with those numbers. Undoubtedly the implied probability will change and get closer as the election gets closer but Biden is certainly not a shoe-in.

Saying that most Republicans will not vote for a convicted felon, I have my doubts as to how that would play out. There hasn't been a "red line" yet regarding Trump. I'm not sure being a felon would change that. It might. Being in prison or confined to house arrest "might":)

The whole thing is kind of alarming in any event. To me it's "alarming" that either one of them is our only choice.
 
I think the betting site would be considering all that and still come up with those numbers.
I very much doubt they are going on anything other than current public opinion. Anything else is way too fraught with uncertainty. (i.e. they would be seen as biased if they added in the downside of being convicted; potential gamblers would say "You're a biased loonie liberal site if you think he can be convicted for doing NOTHING!")
Saying that most Republicans will not vote for a convicted felon, I have my doubts as to how that would play out. There hasn't been a "red line" yet regarding Trump. I'm not sure being a felon would change that. It might. Being in prison or confined to house arrest "might"
Well, again per polls, 58% of republicans said a person convicted of a felony should not be president.

I think many republicans are of the mind that he will not be convicted, because they are all trumped up political charges. A conviction would change a lot. It would also make democratic messaging a lot easier. "Vote for me or the convicted felon. Your choice."
 
I very much doubt they are going on anything other than current public opinion. Anything else is way too fraught with uncertainty. (i.e. they would be seen as biased if they added in the downside of being convicted; potential gamblers would say "You're a biased loonie liberal site if you think he can be convicted for doing NOTHING!")

Well, again per polls, 58% of republicans said a person convicted of a felony should not be president.

I think many republicans are of the mind that he will not be convicted, because they are all trumped up political charges. A conviction would change a lot. It would also make democratic messaging a lot easier. "Vote for me or the convicted felon. Your choice."

I guess we'll see but the betting site is trying to make money and not political statements.

There are a lot of polls. I have my doubts that 58% of Republicans will actually react in that manner but again, we'll see.

The worst thing acting against Biden is that he looks and acts very old and when people gas up and go to the grocery store they are negatively reminded of his administration even though you can easily argue it's not his "fault". The economy wasn't George HW Bush's fault either but Clinton was elected.

I may be giving a little too much weight to the grocery and gas aspect because I live in Seattle and gas and grocery prices are some of the highest in the nation. Gas is about $5/gal and I just saw an article showing that grocery prices here are some of the highest in the country.

My main point though was that Trump is a lot more likely to be our next President that I would have thought (and did think) a year or so ago. The Trump Republican challengers fell apart and Biden is falling apart as well.

Were time and the Constitution not a factor, how about Eisenhower vs Obama? Winner, winner:)
 
I guess we'll see but the betting site is trying to make money and not political statements.
Agreed. Which is why they are not likely to count 'spoilers' like that.
The worst thing acting against Biden is that he looks and acts very old and when people gas up and go to the grocery store they are negatively reminded of his administration . . .
Yep. But that's going to quickly become less of a tool republicans can use, since inflation is dropping rapidly, as are gas prices. I predict significant reductions in gas prices over the next four months or so as the increased sales of EVs eat into gas sales. And all the republicans claiming that Biden is responsible for gas prices will be hard-pressed to claim that Biden now has nothing to do with them.
 
Agreed. Which is why they are not likely to count 'spoilers' like that.

Yep. But that's going to quickly become less of a tool republicans can use, since inflation is dropping rapidly, as are gas prices. I predict significant reductions in gas prices over the next four months or so as the increased sales of EVs eat into gas sales. And all the republicans claiming that Biden is responsible for gas prices will be hard-pressed to claim that Biden now has nothing to do with them.

The issue in some places like California (I think) and Washington is that gas prices are much higher than the national average anyway due to local taxes. I read where someone (don't know the state) was paying $2.90 gal whereas it's $5 gal here. It's the same with grocery prices in many cases.

I didn't read the article about why Seattle has some of the highest prices but transportation (gas prices) and even "sin" taxes locally affect that. Soft drinks, for example, are about twice what they would be due to a tax put on all sugary drinks by the City Council.

There must be other local factors as well but if local Democratic politicians causes taxes to go up, the voters rarely will distinguish between the President and the local party. In the case of Seattle though, Biden is going to get the vote no matter what but not necessarily in the rest of the state. Most of the population is in Seattle though.

It could be a factor in other states though. Inflation is already down but food prices aren't going to come down, just go up more slowly, so that will still be a factor, the damage has been done. Gas prices always go up and down and the Ukraine war isn't over so those effects aren't going to change which affects both transportation costs and food costs.

Is it your feeling that it is very unlikely that Trump will be our next President as opposed to mine that he could well be as in at least a 50%/50% chance? Are you more sure than that?
 
Well, again per polls, 58% of republicans said a person convicted of a felony should not be president.
I think it would be important to probe deeper on that one, because I think that, very probably, those polled are saying they won't vote for somebody justly convicted of a felony. But if 70% of Republicans believe that the prosecutions being brought against Trump are political in nature (trumped up charges!) then they won't recognise any convictions as legitimate. If that's the case, then their claim that they won't vote for a convicted felon becomes irrelevant to what they will do in practice.

(P.S. Republican voters live in an alternate reality. The problem is, if they wish hard enough, there's a chance they might actually get what they think they want.)
 
The problem is, if they wish hard enough, there's a chance they might actually get what they think they want.

We might take a moment to wonder why that is even possible. It's one thing to suggest↗ conservative voters are "consistently and repeatedly fed a whole bunch of lies, and coming to believe them", but that would say nothing about who is lying to them or how they came to believe. There is applicable history; just like it's one thing if "Republican voters live in an alternate reality", but nobody needs to encourage them.

Try thinking of it like censorship, James. Perhaps to you it sounds like a loaded statement, but these are people who think they are censored when they are not allowed to censor others. And if I say this is a problem that has been going on for years, I don't mean the eight and a half years since Donald Trump rode down his escalator to say the things they so badly wanted to hear, I mean decades, and not just the one or two since Bush lied about Iraq. That market demand, the things those voters so badly wanted to hear, has persisted for generations.

And if you follow the history of rhetoric, politics, and justice in the U.S., you'll find a tenuous, even volatile, relationship between conservatives and fact.

You, for instance, ought to be able to remember the idea of intelligent design as part of the politics around creationism and the Bible in the classroom. Inasmuch as "Republican voters live in an alternate reality", and some part of that is that is, as it goes, they are "consistently and repeatedly fed a whole bunch of lies, and coming to believe them", we might wonder how that works for theocratic rightists, such as who has been lying to the Christian nationalists. Nor is it just Dominionists; it was unsurprising to hear of Seventh-Day Adventist literature in the detritus of insurrection.

Because, sure, maybe it sounds like a loaded statement to suggest these are people who think they are censored if they are not allowed to censor others, but you've also experienced part of that history, yourself. And if the problem is that Republican voters can wish hard enough that they might actually get what they think they want, we can also wonder why that is even possible.

Consider the basic idea of a mitigating story, James; i.e., sure, there's something awry, but it's not what it looks like. Different tales will say different things. We might wonder who lied to them, for instance. Some tales will describe self-infliction. In American history and discourse, it would be more than a little ironic if this question that coincides with conservative politics, the mitigating story, would tell a tale that seeks to blame nebulous others.

As it goes, one of the reasons they might actually get what they think they want is that enough people would help them along the way. While it is well enough to suggest, "Republican voters live in an alternate reality", because, sure, that's kind of how it goes, these days, what remains unclear is why anyone else would validate that behavior. Or, maybe not: In a related question of prejudice, I have suggested↗ it only works in a certain way, favoring what is traditional or otherwise similarly accepted, even to the point of preferring unreality.

That is, there is a certain degree to which they have lied to themselves.

It is not an insignificant influence.

… somebody justly convicted of a felony …

Trump can confess, and even boast, of crimes, and they adore him all the more. While it's not ninety-nine percent↗, their behavior tends toward and tests what you have, before, [url=https://www.sciforums.com/posts/3688621/]described↗ as "an extreme form of relativism … such that anything goes as long as it's 'true for you'".

And insofar as "their claim that they won't vote for a convicted felon becomes irrelevant to what they will do in practice", it's true, the word of Trump supporters has been dubious the whole time.

As a circumstantial analysis, it is what it is. As a functional question, it is a circumstance that needs a lot of help along the way.[/url]
 
Tiassa:

I'm going to take a moment here to agree with you (I think). Surprise!
We might take a moment to wonder why that is even possible. It's one thing to suggest↗ conservative voters are "consistently and repeatedly fed a whole bunch of lies, and coming to believe them", but that would say nothing about who is lying to them or how they came to believe.
In the same post you quoted from (#175, above), I had something to say about who is lying and why they are doing it.

The United States has a few strongly right-wing media outlets, which are owned by conservative billionaires who are willing to tell lies to make even more billions. There are, of course, also a number of left-leaning media outlets, some of which are also owned by billionaires, most (not all) of which are also for-profit enterprises. However, while the rightist outlets are happy to have people on who are demonstrable liars, the leftist outlets are more likely to just fail to platform certain stories or points of view (things the Right also does). As a rule, the left-leaning media tends to report fact-based stories, whereas the conservative media is willing to platform lies and liars, while often ignoring the facts or pretending there are "alternative facts".

In an ideal world, people would be rational about this. They would compare the various media and make some effort to distinguish fact from fiction; then they would gravitate towards the more trustworthy, fact-based media. But ours is very far from an ideal world. People often prefer to listen to what they want to hear and to play down or ignore what they wish wasn't the case. The polarisation of the media landscape in recent years has led to a situation where people can tune into things they want to hear pretty much exclusively. That is, they can get all their "news" from one or a few sources that are all ideologically driven and aligned with a certain world view tailor-made to the viewer/listener. And if you're a media mogul, it can be highly profitable to give the public what it wants rather than what it needs.

The media and its polarisation is not just a cause, though. There is an ecosystem in play in which the media reinforces certain political messages and the politics drives the media to even greater polarisation and extremity.
There is applicable history; just like it's one thing if "Republican voters live in an alternate reality", but nobody needs to encourage them.
I agree that the people themselves obviously bear some responsibility for their own ignorance. It's not just that the media does it to them. They do it to themselves. They are willing participants. The causation goes both ways. However, they are encouraged. Constantly and actively.
Try thinking of it like censorship, James. Perhaps to you it sounds like a loaded statement, but these are people who think they are censored when they are not allowed to censor others. And if I say this is a problem that has been going on for years, I don't mean the eight and a half years since Donald Trump rode down his escalator to say the things they so badly wanted to hear, I mean decades, and not just the one or two since Bush lied about Iraq. That market demand, the things those voters so badly wanted to hear, has persisted for generations.
Another way to put it is this, I think: certain groups of people used to have more political power - more power to make sure it was their way or the highway - than they have today, and their power appears to be waning, if we are to judge from a birds-eye-view historical perspective. One of the main reasons is demographic change in the US population. It's the recent immigrants. It's the lower white birthrate compared to people of colour. It's the decline of religion.

People with power tend to want to hold onto it. People who don't have power tend to want those who they believe best represent their interests to hold onto the power, ideally on their behalf. Fear is an especially powerful motivator. People who are told over and over to fear certain things are more willing to buy into the lie that they require a Strong Man to protect them and their interests, or even to Make them Great Again.
And if you follow the history of rhetoric, politics, and justice in the U.S., you'll find a tenuous, even volatile, relationship between conservatives and fact.
I'm not sure that "conservatives" is the most appropriate word to use to describe the MAGA crowd. Conservatives have traditionally supported institutions, the Constitution, and ... well ... traditional politics, religion, moral values and so on. The MAGA crowd are radicals. They want to throw out democracy and replace it with authoritarianism, although I'm sure that only a fraction of them would go so far as to describe (and celebrate) the logical ends of their position in those terms. But yes, "fact" is typically one of the first casualties of totalitarianism; these are people who prefer burning books to reading them.
You, for instance, ought to be able to remember the idea of intelligent design as part of the politics around creationism and the Bible in the classroom. Inasmuch as "Republican voters live in an alternate reality", and some part of that is that is, as it goes, they are "consistently and repeatedly fed a whole bunch of lies, and coming to believe them", we might wonder how that works for theocratic rightists, such as who has been lying to the Christian nationalists. Nor is it just Dominionists; it was unsurprising to hear of Seventh-Day Adventist literature in the detritus of insurrection.
I have long believed fundamentalist religion to be detrimental to human flourishing in most instances. When religion is co-opted by cynical politics and used to manipulate people (even more), it can be an even more destructive force than usual.

"Intelligent design" was a smokescreen for Creationism from the start, put up by the fundamentalists because that pesky First Amendment of yours meant they didn't get to pretend that the Bible is a scientific text in school science classes. But why did they want Creationism in the first place? The answer again, I think, comes down to fear. Fear that telling the truth to children - e.g. educating them about the science of evolution - would lead to a moral decline that could only be prevented by telling kids some lies about the Bible and God.

The usual disclaimer goes here, of course: not all religionists. Just the ones that are the religious equivalent of MAGA. And, let's also not forget there's a rather large crossover there, too. Donald Trump has even taken to pretending he is religious, because it gets more evangelicals on side.
Because, sure, maybe it sounds like a loaded statement to suggest these are people who think they are censored if they are not allowed to censor others, but you've also experienced part of that history, yourself.
It's not ridiculous, by any means. It's the whole thing about fearing a decline or loss of power, resenting it and then vigorously demanding their "right" to it.
And if the problem is that Republican voters can wish hard enough that they might actually get what they think they want, we can also wonder why that is even possible.
That's still a bit of a mystery to me, watching it all unfold from half a world away. I sometimes wonder if the progressive media and commentators and analysts might just be a little too nice about the whole business. They report and comment on the facts: "Today Trump told 3 new lies and 10 old ones; decide for yourself what they means to you." Maybe what is needed is some dumbing-down and some more patient explanation for those who have fallen under the spell. On the other hand, I don't think those people can be reached through the normal channels. They don't pay attention to those.

The big mystery is not so much the dyed-in-the-wool MAGA types, Hillary Clinton's "deplorables". Those people have always been unreachable. No, the big mystery is the so-called "moderate" Republicans, who for some reason have still decided that Trump is preferable to Biden, despite his character, all his lies, his narcissism and the rest; maybe tribe is more important than principles? Or maybe it's the fear again. What will Trump do to his detractors if he is re-elected?

Of course, all of this still only covers the Republicans. There is still possible hope to be found with the unaffiliated voters, who might be sensible enough, brave enough and motivated enough to want to prevent Trump 2.0. But there are no guarantees.
In American history and discourse, it would be more than a little ironic if this question that coincides with conservative politics, the mitigating story, would tell a tale that seeks to blame nebulous others.
I am not trying to absolve "conservatives" or to place the blame on "nebulous others". The "others" aren't particularly nebulous or anonymous. Many of them are conservatives themselves. And sure, the rest are doing it to themselves, as well. The scary thing is that they might just take the rest of you down with them. And that's not just bad for all of you over there in the USA. It's bad for the rest of us, in what remains of the "free" world.
Trump can confess, and even boast, of crimes, and they adore him all the more.
They believe he is sticking it to the Man. They don't realise he's going to stick it to them, if he gets half a chance. There's only one person Trump really cares about, and yet some people practically worship him. That's a peculiar sort of blindness and naivete that I think is only possible when you live in a more-or-less impermeable, inward-looking and self-absorbed social bubble.
 
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The big mystery is not so much the dyed-in-the-wool MAGA types, Hillary Clinton's "deplorables". Those people have always been unreachable. No, the big mystery is the so-called "moderate" Republicans, who for some reason have still decided that Trump is preferable to Biden, despite his character, all his lies, his narcissism and the rest; maybe tribe is more important than principles? Or maybe it's the fear again. What will Trump do to his detractors if he is re-elected?

I think the answer to the "big mystery" is the degree to which they are willing to compartmentalize what the downside to his chaos could do (maybe nothing, maybe catastrophic). For the "moderate" Republicans I don't think it's "tribe" or fear (unless you are just referring to politicians).

I think it more a matter of "yes, he is a jerk and I don't like his personality but he will be better for the economy".

For a moderate Republican the hope would be that there would be moderate economic policies and that the rest of his administration would just be about feeding his narcissism without starting WWIII or resulting in a dictatorship.

The dislike of Biden is strictly his spending and economic worldview. That, IMO, is the only reason the polls could be this close to the point that he (Trump) could actually win. I tend to think that his legal problems will eventually derail his campaign, at least enough to favor Biden in the end but who knows?

I tend to think I would favor Trump's economic policies but I don't really know what they are. I wasn't in favor of his tariffs on China. It's not helpful to the financial markets when he let's all the chaos loose yet Biden, IMO, seems clueless regarding the way he handled the stimulus aspect of Covid and the aftermath and his more "progressive" economic views. In general he isn't considered a progressive but those are the aspects of his policy that I don't favor. I think much of the progressive movement and policies are destructive.

As far as to whether the overall economy will be fine under Trump or Biden, I don't know. Personally, I'm more interested in the financial markets. That could be OK (or not) either way but I just don't like Biden's approach. Trump is just erratic and irrational though so he clearly shouldn't be in the White House.

I think the problem is, people don't like being faced with only these two options and therefore you see irrational behavior in the polling.
 
Yeah, it's all a big mess. It'll take several decades to work this political season of uncertainty out to anyone's satisfaction... Or so it seems.

I'm still a Trumpster. Hard times for sure, but they could be worse. Meh, what's next? I mean beyond a total loss of housing and acquired assets.
 
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