Presidential predictions for 2024?
- Thread starter Seattle
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Yeah, starting to feel the crunch. I'm still trying to make up my mind about who to vote for--I just like them both so much.So, one day to go.
Please, America, do the right thing!!
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Don't worry, "we" have it all under control. Arrangements have been made for the weather to be less than optimal tomorrow in the red states, the bags of money have been transferred to the swing states to be distributed tomorrow and the "vote counters" have been advised as to the numbers that are needed.So, one day to go.
Please, America, do the right thing!!
It will be a Harris win. Next up will be Trump's sentencing later in November. I'm thinking house arrest and a long parole but "we" haven't decided that one yet.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
I think the issue is on your end. If you don't understand something that's something you need to work on, not me.
Yep. They are just so similar, it's hard to know who is best for the USA.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
I find the odds to be interesting between the betting and the polls. I understand that a "whale" could manipulate it but it's more likely that those betting just have a different perception statistically. It's still a close contest but the polls tend to favor Harris now and the betting tends to favor Trump although the polls are within the margin of error.
On the particular site (Kalshi) that I used, if Harris wins my return is actually 190%. It's that high partially because it's a low bet and they deposit $20 just for signing up. Even without that the return would still be 132%.
It will be interesting to see if, in the future, this concept becomes more common except where the amounts bet are even smaller (such as a few cents) just to eliminate spam "voters". I'm thinking more of opinion polls on various subjects where you might have to "pay to play".
On the particular site (Kalshi) that I used, if Harris wins my return is actually 190%. It's that high partially because it's a low bet and they deposit $20 just for signing up. Even without that the return would still be 132%.
It will be interesting to see if, in the future, this concept becomes more common except where the amounts bet are even smaller (such as a few cents) just to eliminate spam "voters". I'm thinking more of opinion polls on various subjects where you might have to "pay to play".
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Perfect. They just need to have it explained a little more clearly, that's all...
The guy asks Tucker, "Was your wife terrified? I know you were." This was a coordinated attack by his wife and dogs, to try and get rid of the loser.
Polls should be more accurate, in my view. It's not because they favour Harris but because the polls are based on each person being weighted equally. On a betting site the amount of money you stake matters.
Further, there's the question of who is likelier to bet on the election: a Republican or a Democrat?
Which demographic is likeliest to vote, and which candidate do they favour? E.g. if most betting by value is white males, and white males favour Trump, then the betting site will suggest Trump will win. If most betting by value was by females, it would favour Harris.
That's assuming that people even bet on their favoured candidate.
But then polls depends on how one extrapolates from the sample.
If you look at the "average of polls" (538?) then this can be gamed, as some have suggested the Reps have done, by flooding the system with biased polls that have Trump ahead, so as to bring his average up.
And yet, there is something, here, about the implications.
Did you hear the bit about demonic nukes?
Or the throwback to abortions causing hurricanes?
These years later, and it's like, Oh, look, we're right back where we started.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Yes, both can be inaccurate. I'd guess that in most cases, betting is more accurate (not in this case though). Look at who responds to polls...old people who have nothing better to do. Look at how many people lie to pollsters, it's a lot.
With betting, if I thought Trump would win, I wouldn't bet on Harris. The more money that is at stake the more the person is likely to take everything into account. Talk is cheap, betting isn't.
Congressional Prediction
Last-minute prediction: Reporter Ryan Struyk↱ notes:
Allison Gill↱ observes, "When Nancy does math, it’s wise to listen."
And that's the thing; she's not wrong about Pelosi's confidence, but this isn't a whip count. I'm fascinated at the possibility.
Last-minute prediction: Reporter Ryan Struyk↱ notes:
PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
Allison Gill↱ observes, "When Nancy does math, it’s wise to listen."
And that's the thing; she's not wrong about Pelosi's confidence, but this isn't a whip count. I'm fascinated at the possibility.
How on earth can they vote for him again!!
I feel sorry for America. While at time of writing there's a slim chance Harris could still win (although she's behind in most battleground states), I am genuinely surprised and hugely disappointed with the results thus far.
Let's just hope that Trump is unable to enact the vast majority of what he has threatened with Project 2025.
And I guess he'll escape justice for all his other crimes, and no doubt we'll see judge Aileen Cannon on the Supreme Court in due course. Sheesh, the Supreme Court is going to be far on the right for decades to come if he gets to replace some.
I feel sorry for America. While at time of writing there's a slim chance Harris could still win (although she's behind in most battleground states), I am genuinely surprised and hugely disappointed with the results thus far.
Let's just hope that Trump is unable to enact the vast majority of what he has threatened with Project 2025.
And I guess he'll escape justice for all his other crimes, and no doubt we'll see judge Aileen Cannon on the Supreme Court in due course. Sheesh, the Supreme Court is going to be far on the right for decades to come if he gets to replace some.
Magical Realist
Valued Senior Member
Great! Four more years of lies, misinformation, stupidity, and embarrassing obnoxious behavior. The world must be laughing at us. This is so humiliating.
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Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Election Post Mortem
This may be a good thing, although I doubt it. The Republicans are a problem as currently organized. Fullstop.
Therefore, let's address the Democrats. Why does this keep happening? It's the Progressives. Until you get that you won't understand why this keeps happening.
It's like telling your upset girlfriend that she has no reason to be upset. That never works out well. The Progressive approach is to argue that you should be happy with (name the subject). The economy is good even though you don't think so. Inflation is low even though it isn't. Crime is low, even though it isn't.
If you used to walk safely at a city park and you can no longer do that because of the homeless, just argue that the homeless don't commit crime and are fine on the street. Or, if you want them off the streets, just build them a nice home.
If inflation/prices are too high, just promise to give them more money to buy a house, promise to lower grocery prices. All things that will only raise prices.
Defund the police and be surprised at the results. Guarantee student loans and sub-prime loans and be surprised when it all blows up.
Focus on just the small groups in society that don't even vote to the exclusion of everyone that does. This is how you get the current result.
The majority of Americans are moderate, independent and just want to be left alone to do as well as they can without high taxes and excessive government. When you ignore that, you get election results that you don't like.
Listen instead of lecturing. That's the lesson here.
This may be a good thing, although I doubt it. The Republicans are a problem as currently organized. Fullstop.
Therefore, let's address the Democrats. Why does this keep happening? It's the Progressives. Until you get that you won't understand why this keeps happening.
It's like telling your upset girlfriend that she has no reason to be upset. That never works out well. The Progressive approach is to argue that you should be happy with (name the subject). The economy is good even though you don't think so. Inflation is low even though it isn't. Crime is low, even though it isn't.
If you used to walk safely at a city park and you can no longer do that because of the homeless, just argue that the homeless don't commit crime and are fine on the street. Or, if you want them off the streets, just build them a nice home.
If inflation/prices are too high, just promise to give them more money to buy a house, promise to lower grocery prices. All things that will only raise prices.
Defund the police and be surprised at the results. Guarantee student loans and sub-prime loans and be surprised when it all blows up.
Focus on just the small groups in society that don't even vote to the exclusion of everyone that does. This is how you get the current result.
The majority of Americans are moderate, independent and just want to be left alone to do as well as they can without high taxes and excessive government. When you ignore that, you get election results that you don't like.
Listen instead of lecturing. That's the lesson here.
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