Presidential predictions for 2024?

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Tiassa said:
At some point, they start to sound like the religious crackpots we encounter here, from time to time, arguing according to their own, mysterious definitions↗.
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Yeah, it really comes down to completely disregarding an abundance of evidence, and "simply" taking it on faith that there are other, legitimate reasons for supporting Trump, that for some reason or other are wholly ineffable. Or it's simply being dishonest and disingenuous.

I see no evidence for Trump's supposed business acumen. I don't even think he's a very competent grifter--grifters don't typically start with 400 million dollars and end up with... less???

Even if we consider Mark Burnett's framing of Trump as business mastermind, it's not 2005--there are very few people today who don't know that "reality television" is bullshit. I've never watched The Apprentice (though I'm reading a book about it right now), but my understanding is that Trump only ever appeared very briefly towards the end of each episode--like for a minute or two tops. It's fairly well-documented that Trump's regular "work day" for the run of the series comprised sitting around, shitting his pants--

Literally! Why is this not discussed more? And he doesn't have a medical condition--he's incontinent because he has been snorting shit-tons of Adderall for the past five decades. And he makes someone else clean up his mess.

--complaining about Black people, and freaking out because he thought people were fucking with him whenever a big word he didn't know appeared on the cue cards. Oh, and, "You're fired!" Mark Burnett is a kind of genius, I guess, for being able to sell that garbage, but the ruse was all but apparent to everyone but the dullest of the dull.
 
Tiassa said:
Getting to those "other reasons" is a bit like pulling teeth. From a stone statue. It's like you have to bash it in the mouth and break stuff, and the tooth never comes away cleanly because it's not actually a tooth, and let's face it, building a fancy laser array to precisely remove one tooth from the smarmy grin of one statue isn't generally feasible, and pretty much anybody can figure that part out.
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I had to highlight this passage. Perfect!
Nobody wants to say, on camera, to an interviewer: "Because I resent the hell out of women more successful than me." or "I want those college-educated Africans who are smarter than I am back in the cotton fields." or "I'm scared to death of Latino men who more attractive than I am." But they sure yell it all out at a rally in Madison Square garden.
And yes, some of the idjits really believe they'll get better jobs once all the immigrants are gone. They won't much like the work, or the pay, when they get it.
 
A Second Opinion

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To reiterate: In the conservative imagination, examples and evidence count for nothing. When they cannot answer the examples and evidence, they try to ignore them.

Steve Benen↱ provides a relevant take:

The problem isn't just that Trump sees Americans he disagrees with as "the enemy within," the problem is made worse by the fact that he often sees Americans he disagrees with as an impossibility that can only be explained through corrupt schemes that only exist in his mind.​

In this case, the evidence Trump would discount has to do with crowd size, which isn't exactly new, but this particular twist has to do with other people's crowds, which also isn't new.

June 2016, "paid agitators". November 2016, "paid protesters". January 2017, "paid protesters". October 2018, "paid professionals".

As reports for Harris' speech at the Ellipse both exceed Donald Trump's attendance estimate from 2021 and likely understate the Harris crowd, it is unsurprising that Trump would claim, "She can't get anybody," and suggest, "They're busing people because they couldn't get anybody to show up for tonight."

He said it last week, too: "You ever see Kamala's crowds? They put like 10 people, they bus them in. They take a bus, and they pay people. It's true. They pay people. They don't get people."

Benen explains:

In fact, the former president has been pushing this same line, almost word for word, since early September — when he first started noticing the big and excited crowds Harris was generating.

In August, Trump went so far as to claim that people were using "artificial intelligence" to make it appear as if sizable crowds were showing up for the vice president's campaign events. He added at the time that images showing her audiences were "fake."​

And if the MSNBC producer spends no time ribbing Trump for hiring audiences, it's because there is something more important to be observed, which is the surrogate fallacy, the straw army he builds up to be seen burning down; he cannot actually account for the real issues before him, so he pretends they don't exist.

To the one, sure, it's kind of weird how people go along with it. To the other, though, it ought not be surprising. We've been seeing this, in the U.S., for proverbial ever. It's woven into our heritage, and precedes the Republic.

Which might seem like it doesn't mean much to our international neighbors who fall for it or play along or whatever, but they have their own reasons.
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Notes:

Benen, Steve. "As Harris draws enormous crowds, Trump responds in a Trumpian way". MSNBC. 30 October 2024. MSNBC.com. 30 October 2024. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...crowds-trump-responds-trumpian-way-rcna178052
 
Jeeves said:
I had to highlight this passage. Perfect!
Nobody wants to say, on camera, to an interviewer: "Because I resent the hell out of women more successful than me." or "I want those college-educated Africans who are smarter than I am back in the cotton fields." or "I'm scared to death of Latino men who more attractive than I am." But they sure yell it all out at a rally in Madison Square garden.
And yes, some of the idjits really believe they'll get better jobs once all the immigrants are gone. They won't much like the work, or the pay, when they get it.
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You miss the point. An open border with no screen or control at all is about security and debt, not about jobs.
 
Oh, Come On! You Didn't Just ....

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Aaron Rupar↱ observes:

Bernie Moreno on Newsmax wonders why Kamala Harris doesn't just sign an executive order right now to close the border. ​

Show of hands?

The transcript:

Host: … What did you make of her comments, and this administration's current policies?

Moreno: Well, it's unbelievable. I mean, she's the Vice President of the United States. Why doesn't she just walk into the building right behind her, sign an executive order restating the ones that President Trump had, and deport the criminals now? Why would you have to wait until January? It's obscene.​

Again, show of hands?

Bernie Moreno is the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio.

It's a question that comes up, from time to time↑: Is part of the problem here that you just don't know what you're talking about?
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Notes:

@atrupar. "Bernie Moreno on Newsmax wonders why Kamala Harris doesn't just sign an executive order right now to close the border. (Is he ... is he aware she's not the president?)" X. 30 October 2024. X.com. 30 October 2024. status/1851644574751408446
 
Seattle said:
The economy isn't going to be that much different regardless of who is President. The same can be said for Bitcoin.
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(Are you still obsessed with Bitcoin?)

That's a bit of a silly thing to say. Decisions made by the government can and do impact the economy. Most of the time things don't shift rapidly, but they do shift.

Seattle said:
Trump talking is crazy but his business instincts are better than her's
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The guy who has been bankrupt (what is it?) seven times?

How does the old joke go? "How do you make a small fortune? A: Start with a big one."

Seattle said:
An open border with no screen or control at all is about security and debt, not about jobs.
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Nobody is advocating an open border with no screen or control.
 
Seattle said:
You miss the point.
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Meaning you don't know any of those answers, or how they affect the economy you say won't be affected. Well, hell, maybe the camps will be run by private companies for profit. All those unused school buildings can be wrapped around with barbed wire and sold off cheap to Republican cronies, and the children earning $7/hr picking lettuce and packing chicken parts will pay for the upkeep.

An open border with no screen or control at all is about security and debt, not about jobs.
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And where is this open border located? AFAIK, the 49th parallel, and even that one has some screens and controls.
Security of what? Why did Trump instruct the spineless Repubs to hold up the bipartisan border bill? Does he have concepts for a better solution, that will be revealed in four weeks, or vey soon, or tomorrow or whatever he said the other two dozen times he didn't have a plan?
Trump racked up more than twice as much debt as Biden, who got stuck with the Covid fallout from Trump's neglect. Both bushes added more, and the wonderful Wizard of Reagan added a whopping 186% without even declaring an actual war on another country. But, hey, at least he made the offshoring of American industry easy. That floated a few luxury yachts.
 
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James R said:
The guy who has been bankrupt (what is it?) seven times?

How does the old joke go? "How do you make a small fortune? A: Start with a big one."
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Hypothetically, Trump could have taken his 400 million dollar inheritance, put 300 million in something stupid, like a very low interest rate checking account--let's say 0.6 percent interest--and just lived a lavish lifestyle for 50 years with the remaining 100 million dollars.

At that interest rate, he could have yielded 405 million dollars over 50 years! Instead, he incomprehensibly sunk millions into casinos and real estate, fucked over (didn't pay!) many/most of his employees, went through seven bankruptcies, and lost an insane amount of money. It's hard to imagine how anyone could be more bad at "business" than Trump.
 
James R said:
(Are you still obsessed with Bitcoin?)

That's a bit of a silly thing to say. Decisions made by the government can and do impact the economy. Most of the time things don't shift rapidly, but they do shift.


The guy who has been bankrupt (what is it?) seven times?

How does the old joke go? "How do you make a small fortune? A: Start with a big one."


Nobody is advocating an open border with no screen or control.
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Are you still obsessed with Trump?
The President doesn't matter as much as you seem to think.
Going bankrupt is neither here nor there. The US would be bankrupt were it not able to print money.

Regarding the border, that's what we've had. Have you still not gotten any Bitcoin? Better hurry.
 
parmalee said:
Hypothetically, Trump could have taken his 400 million dollar inheritance, put 300 million in something stupid, like a very low interest rate checking account--let's say 0.6 percent interest--and just lived a lavish lifestyle for 50 years with the remaining 100 million dollars.

At that interest rate, he could have yielded 405 million dollars over 50 years! Instead, he incomprehensibly sunk millions into casinos and real estate, fucked over (didn't pay!) many/most of his employees, went through seven bankruptcies, and lost an insane amount of money. It's hard to imagine how anyone could be more bad at "business" than Trump.
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Just think of how many bicycles he could have bought but he likes attention so by that standard he has done quite well.
 
Seattle said:
Are you still obsessed with Trump?
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Huh?

Did you forget that you're posting in a thread titled "Presidential predictions for 2024"?

This thread is about the US Presidential election in 2024, which is about to happen in less than a week. (In fact, it's already happening, since postal voting has been going for some time now.)

Last time I checked, no presidential candidate other than Trump or Harris has a realistic chance to win that election.

What would you rather talk about, in a thread about Presidential predictions for 2024? Bitcoin?

Accusing me of being obsessed with Trump just makes you look like a bit of an idiot. I appreciate that you like trying to annoy me, but is the degradation of your own reputation really worth it?
Seattle said:
The President doesn't matter as much as you seem to think.
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What are you even talking about? Matter for what? Matter to whom? You're not referencing anything I wrote, so there are no clues as to why you believe you're inferring what I think.

Here's a hint: if you want to know what I think about something, try asking me. Guessing only tends to wind up in you making mistakes.
Seattle said:
Going bankrupt is neither here nor there.
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Your claim, if you recall, is that Trump is good at business. I think that multiple bankruptcies, not to mention multiple business failures, speaks to that topic. Don't you?
Seattle said:
The US would be bankrupt were it not able to print money.
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Deflection.
Seattle said:
Regarding the border, that's what we've had.
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When?
Seattle said:
Have you still not gotten any Bitcoin? Better hurry.
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There's evidence that you're obsessed. You keep providing more. See the difference?
 
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Seattle said:
The President doesn't legislate.
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The government
Seattle said:
The government is only 1/3 of the economy.
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does set annual budgets levy taxes and make regulations. Lower levels of government decide on infrastructure projects, social spending, business licensing, outsourcing and labour issues. Various branches and agencies thereof also award hugely lucrative contracts and subsidies. I'd say government was somewhat influential in the economy.
 
Jeeves said:
The government

does set annual budgets levy taxes and make regulations. Lower levels of government decide on infrastructure projects, social spending, business licensing, outsourcing and labour issues. Various branches and agencies thereof also award hugely lucrative contracts and subsidies. I'd say government was somewhat influential in the economy.
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I think ultimately this is irrelevant to Seattle's concerns. (I say this with the awareness that he doesn't know how to use the word "relevant" correctly.) When he says that "(Trump's) business instincts are better than (Harris's)", I think that's simply his, uh, "nuanced" way of saying, "He's not a Black lady."
 
Jeeves said:
The government

does set annual budgets levy taxes and make regulations. Lower levels of government decide on infrastructure projects, social spending, business licensing, outsourcing and labour issues. Various branches and agencies thereof also award hugely lucrative contracts and subsidies. I'd say government was somewhat influential in the economy.
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I didn't say it wasn't influential at all. It would be even better if it was even less influential. It's not generally a positive influence.
 
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