Partitioning of Ukraine
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Долю чего? Территории? Теоретически - Польша, Венгрия, Румыния. Т.е. те страны, от которых отрезали часть земель после 2-й мировой, и сформировали из них западную часть Украины.
Нет, конечно. Сейчас трамповские "друзья" удивляются ещё одной вещи - он попросил помиловать тех, кто оказался в окружении, но никто не собирается сдаваться. Его предложением никто и не собирался воспользоваться.
Трамп решил, что весь мир будет "прыгать под его дудку", а его игнорируют. Похоже, он ещё не понял, что не всех в мире можно купить или запугать, и это стало для него неожиданностью.
sculptor
Valued Senior Member
Not yet.
Of course not. But Trump wants a piece and Putin wants the whole thing, so odds are that it will be divided.
У нас в таких случаях говорят:" не надо делить шкуру неубитого медведя".
Putin will more or less get to keep the territory that was annexed in 2022 (the oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia). And there is Trump's impending mineral deal with Ukraine, if that could be tossed in as part of the "divided pie". Ukraine will also be thwarted from the once trendy possibility slash speculation of joining NATO.
All of this goes back to the Russian insecurity crisis that arose in 2014, after the "Revolution of Dignity", in which Viktor Yanukovych was ousted as president of Ukraine. The latter was a member of the pro-Russian Party of Regions.
In response to Ukraine's reorientation from affinity with Russia to trade and closer political ties with the West, Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it. This was invited by or the opportunity facilitated by pro-Yanukovych and pro-Russian protests in Crimea. Separatists and pro-Russian supporters also triggered unrest in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, leading to the so-called "war in Donbas" that continued for years after 2014, covertly supplied and reinforced by Russian military.
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Who would be obstructing them from such, other than Europe itself? An "alternative to NATO" will take 5 to 10 years as idealistically outlined on paper, and obviously longer in the bureaucratic real world. By then Trump will be out of office and a Democrat administration back in power.
Germany's economy is collapsing from electricity shortages, automobile factories also closing down due to competition from China, and it's still struggling from the effects of past COVID shutdowns, and various other problems.
Like Germany, Europe's economy is in decline overall, so a sudden, major shift in setting aside significant money for military funding is an uphill battle. Most of the countries (excluding the UK especially) have been over-sheltered for decades in terms of actual conflict experience, and thus their passive populations are simply averse to warfare. In theory, some might at least fight for their own specific nations, but even that remains to be seen as realizable fact.
- Can the Alternative for Germany save NATO?: Despite the Greens’ enthusiasm for the Ukraine War, only 9% of its members told German pollsters that they would fight to defend their country. [...] Europe’s war hawks don’t want to pay and don’t want to fight.
[...] No one will fight and die for “Europe,” the amorphous supranational bureaucracy sitting in Brussels. But patriots will fight for their country, the wellspring of their identity and the vehicle for its transmission to future generations.
The AfD’s commitment to a large citizen army has deep strategic implications. Under Angela Merkel and her successor, Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Bundeswehr atrophied to the point that it cannot field a single combat-ready division. Germany’s defense posture consists of doing nothing while cowering under the American nuclear umbrella....
An Austrian discussing the war hawks in Europe (the average European's perspective about these ideas)
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It should be noted that Ukraine had already been working toward closer ties for quite a while, a number of years before the Revolution of Dignity. Everything was moving toward signing up for closer ties to the EU, something the vast majority of Ukraine seemed to want, when in late 2013 Yanukovych effectively pulled the plug by asking for renewed terms, having clearly "discussed" things with Russia.
Then, as you say in more detail, Russia had a tantrum.
Вы заметили, что история развивается "по спирали"? И новые поколения болеют теми же болезнями, что и прежние, только в более изощрённом варианте? Кто мог подумать, что после десятков миллионов смертей во 2-ю мировую, Европа снова будет стоять на грани войны? Европейцев можно понять, они хотят мира, как и все нормальные люди, но опыт прошлых поколений показывает: хочешь мира - готовься к войне.
Почему Европе не ввести пошлины на китайские товары, чтобы защитить своих производителей? Разве можно сравнить качество немецких автомобилей с китайскими? Странно, что в Европе их ещё кто то покупает. Всё таки автомобиль - это средство повышенной опасности, и должен быть надёжным. А сейчас Китай нашёл новые дешёвые источники энергии, и вообще задавит всех своим демпингом. Единственный способ защититься от него - не покупать. Сделать так, чтобы покупать было не выгодно. Это понятно даже ребёнку, но видимо тут дело в жадности бизнеса, который живёт только сегодняшним днём. Для этого и должны существовать политики, которые должны думать о будущем страны, а не лоббировать чьи то интересы. Только где их взять? Все хотят хорошо жить здесь и сейчас, по принципу "после меня хоть потоп".
Почему не перевести все домохозяйства в Европе на автономные источники электроэнергии, по примеру Израиля? Это освободит мощности для предприятий. Дайте людям дешёвые кредиты на покупку солнечных батарей и ветряков. Учитесь у Израиля, который смог построить процветающее государство посреди пустыни, без природных богатств, в окружении постоянно нападающих врагов.
China itself was once a big market for buying German cars, and now that has dried up. Germany also has the highest labour costs in the industry. The abrupt removal of subsidies in 1923 for electric cars undermined trust among customers. And energy, again, is very expensive during the winter, for German factories. Wind and solar power simply can't make up for the loss of natural gas during times of the year when those alternative sources falter significantly. The country closed down its remaining nuclear power plants, and now ironically has to import electricity from nuclear-powered France.
Article below submitted by Yazata at Scivillage.
As the title points out, the incapacity purely pertains to the current day. But if there's little enthusiasm for military rebuilding in the reproductively shrinking, general population of the continent... Then one has to wonder how far the hawkish governments (beyond UK and France) can get in the long run, with their suggestions (especially during an economic decline).
What if Europe had to fight tonight – without the Americans?
https://wavellroom.com/2025/03/19/what-if-europe-had-to-fight-tonight-without-the-americans/
EXCERPTS: . . . unlike Ukraine, which spent eight years adapting to Russian tactics along the demarcation line and over three years in all-out war, most European armies lack comparable experience. They also do not possess Ukraine’s extensive anti-air network, leaving European cities and infrastructure even more vulnerable to Russian missile and drone strikes.
Most critically, if Europe fights without the United States, it will have no external lifeline. Ammunition shortages will not be offset by foreign aid, depleted stockpiles will not be replenished, and tank battalions will not be resupplied by allies. Europe must be able to sustain itself.
Furthermore, while Ukrainians have shown enormous resilience, driven by a fight for national survival, it is hard to imagine similar determination across Western Europe. Few European nations beyond the Baltic countries and Poland have the resolve to endure the kind of high-casualty warfare that would likely follow if Europe had to go to war today. Public support for any conflict involving mass casualties and prolonged attritional warfare would likely collapse.
[...] The challenge, therefore, is not whether Europe can fight effectively without the United States – it can ... The real question is whether Europe will invest today, while it still has the choice...
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Европа пока ещё нужна Китаю и Штатам как рынок сбыта для своих товаров. Если она перестанет быть таковой, то перестанет и представлять интерес для них. Природных ресурсов у неё немного, взять с неё нечего. Единственный ресурс - люди, воспитанные на демократических ценностях. Такого и в самих Штатах хватает. Только в Штатах население менее "тепличное" за счёт постоянного притока людей из других стран, которые едут туда не за спокойной жизнью, а в стремлении заработать больше, чем они могли бы заработать у себя на родине. Европа же пускает к себе в основном тех, кто создаёт больше проблем, чем приносит пользы. Туда едут за "халявой", за бесплатными пособиями и т.п. Такими темпами Европа скоро "загнётся", и это будет печально.
Возможно я повторяюсь, но всё-таки посмотрите на пример Израиля: страна, без всяких ресурсов, в окружении куда более многочисленных врагов, живёт и процветает. Лучшая в мире медицина, передовые технологии, отличная боеспособная армия. Они умеют извлекать выгоду даже там, где другие увидят только препятствия. Одно время до санкций у нас в торговых сетях было много отличных овощей из Израиля. Мне стало интересно - как они умудряются выращивать их в пустыне? Так я узнала об их изобретении - капельном поливе. У нас в России делали раньше так: выльют ведро воды растению под корень, оно питается этой водой пол часа, а затем опять голодает. А при капельном поливе вода капает под корень постоянно, растение питается круглосуточно, растёт в разы лучше, при низком расходе воды. Это я привела Вам один из примеров, а вообще у них так во всём. Вот что значат технологии в наше время. Нет ресурсов природных - развивайте человеческие, пока это ещё возможно. Китай вам не друг. Он вообще никому не друг, кроме себя самого. В связке с Россией, богатой природными ресурсами, этот монстр очень быстро заглотит весь мир. Трамп "заигрывает" с Россией не просто так, он понимает, что этот тандем ему нужно разбить.
Your assumptions regarding immigration to the EU seem simplistic, and wrong. On the whole, crime rates committed by immigrant populations are lower than non-immigrant populations - much the same as in the US. It does vary by country, however. Much of this may well be due to the threat of deportation if they get a conviction, something that the nationalised person wouldn't have hanging over their heads.
Also, migration into the EU is a net financial benefit. While there are of course those looking for an easy life on benefits while contributing nothing, the EU doesn't tend to be that generous. You may get the same access to healthcare that is open to anyone (including visitors), and a minimal amount to cover housing and food, but full benefits will require the person to have contributed. Your assumption that the majority of immigrants into the EU create more problems than the benefits they bring is patently false.
There are moments in time where, due to significant world events, there is a sudden influx of refugees that may cost the country more simply to house while their status is assessed, or while they temporarily remain in the country, but these should not be considered "immigrants", until they have moved beyond being "refugees".
So, I'm not sure where you're getting your info from, but I'm going to guess that it's anti-European, as the info is just false.
As for Europe "dying"... a number of countries have problems at the moment with an ageing population. Japan is the one that gets the headlines, but Europe have a few countries where c.20% of the population is over 65 (E.g. France, Germany, Spain, UK). In the US this proportion is c.17%, but growing.
This is a big financial burden for those countries that rely on the current workforce to pay social security benefits to the more elderly. But it is not insurmountable, through such things as increasing the retirement age, reducing the benefits to those with significant wealth, etc.
Immigration helps with this, as it brings in people of working age who can contribute their taxes etc. Without immigration, many countries would struggle.
Возможно, я не права. Я сужу по тем новостям, в которых показывают, как арабы громят пригороды Парижа и сжигают машины мирных французов. У нас в Москве гастарбайтеры из бывших республик СССР тоже начинают создавать проблемы.
Pinball1970
Valued Senior Member
This article gives an overview, I will put the link on my Ukraine thread also.
Worth a read.
www.bbc.co.uk
Worth a read.
Why did Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine and does he want to get rid of Zelensky?
Russia hoped to overthrow Ukraine's pro-Western government in days, but it failed.
www.bbc.co.uk
Are you referring to the Nahel Merzouk riots - which began after the police shooting of Nahel Merzouk, a French national, in 2023? Or are you referring to some other news?
If you're referring to those riots, sure, there were people of Arabian descent involved. The victim was of Moroccan and Algerian descent, but he was a French citizen. The underlying issue, though, was one of racial discrimination (perceived or otherwise) by the police against people they see as either black or Arab. Not immigration per se.
What it looks like you're doing is seeing news of riots by Arabs and assuming that they are rioting because they are Arabs. And how dare they riot against "peaceful French people". Look, if you're going to judge things by the news, at least make sure you actually read about what's going on before making judgements, instead of profiling based simply on race.
А вы считаете, что полицейские относятся предвзято к чернокожим и арабам просто так, "на ровном месте", без всяких на то оснований? Я сужу по новостям, в которых грузовики давят толпу мирных людей, в которых устраивают бойню в редакциях журналов, и пр. Разве всего этого не было?