Korea

[Seattle]

I give Trump little credit for anything other than just being the current President, however conventional wisdom as to how to handle dictators with nuclear weapons doesn't have a good track record and doesn't make sense.

It doesn't matter if N. Korea lies, doesn't treat its people well, isn't going to give up all of their weapons. Who would?

You have to look at the self interests of the party with which you are negotiating. We haven't bombed N. Korea because of all the conventional weapons they have trained on Seoul and now even more so due to their nuclear weapons.

No one wants to be the next Libya or Iraq. As far as not negotiating until they treat their citizens better...this isn't in the self interest of a dictator either. When you quit being ruthless you quit being a dictator and you end up dead.

You have to make things better for both sides. It's better for us if they aren't testing more nuclear weapons, maybe they agree to get rid of their longer range launch vehicles over time. They can reduce some of the conventional weapons aimed at Seoul if we reduce our troops.

As long as they have nuclear weapons then we can keep an equal amount based in S. Korea.

We can help improve their economy and encourage more economic freedom for their citizens even if those citizens can only vote for one party and even if they can't speak critically about the government.

That's an approach that is doable for both sides. It's ridiculous to negotiate for what you know they cannot give and then be surprised when they "cheat".

 

[Quantum Quack]

Agrees!
Maybe the Japanese post ww2 model might be worth having a look at?
Japan, like NK, was controlled by a head of state and was guilty of incredible atrocity during their activities ww2.

 

[Seattle]

Agrees!
Maybe the Japanese post ww2 model might be worth having a look at?
Japan, like NK, was controlled by a head of state and was guilty of incredible atrocity during their activities ww2.

Japan was decimated and defeated (surrendered). N. Korea isn't going to "give up". Kim is the sole power so if he does something to dramatic he could find himself eliminated from within. Not from the people but from the small ruling class.

We can't just go in there and do whatever we want to in any event as it's in China's backyard. A grocery store on every corner and a chicken in every pot would be a good first step though.

 

[billvon]

You have to make things better for both sides. It's better for us if they aren't testing more nuclear weapons, maybe they agree to get rid of their longer range launch vehicles over time. They can reduce some of the conventional weapons aimed at Seoul if we reduce our troops.

Agreed.

The problem is one of two things could happen:

- Kim, being happy that the US recognizes him, and feeling safer, disarms completely and opens his society more.

- Kim, feeling empowered by the official recognition of the US, expands his nuclear program to get more of the same attention and worldwide credibility.

 

[Seattle]

Agreed.

The problem is one of two things could happen:

- Kim, being happy that the US recognizes him, and feeling safer, disarms completely and opens his society more.

- Kim, feeling empowered by the official recognition of the US, expands his nuclear program to get more of the same attention and worldwide credibility.

I don't think either of those two things will happen.

 

[billvon]

I don't think either of those two things will happen.

Those are the two extremes of what could happen. If it trends towards disarmament - great. If it trends towards more weapons and tighter control - not so great.

 

[Seattle]

Those are the two extremes of what could happen. If it trends towards disarmament - great. If it trends towards more weapons and tighter control - not so great.

I think it trends, if anything, toward less confrontation but the summit was just for show, so we'll see if anything doable is proposed. All that we can say now is that the rhetoric is less confrontational than it was last year.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Japan was decimated and defeated (surrendered). N. Korea isn't going to "give up". Kim is the sole power so if he does something to dramatic he could find himself eliminated from within. Not from the people but from the small ruling class.

We can't just go in there and do whatever we want to in any event as it's in China's backyard. A grocery store on every corner and a chicken in every pot would be a good first step though.

maybe I should just lay it out..

Pre-amble:
We are discussing the end of a war.

• Kim has indicated a strong desire for the unification of Korea.
• Kim knows that South Korea is a democracy and therefore knows that unification will not happen unless he stands down and allows for the the North to fall under the Souths democratic systems.
• There is no way the South would agree to Kim being their dictator.
• Kim and his family are also acutely aware that they face almost certain death once he relinquishes control over NK.

unless
he and his family are granted amnesty, immunity, protection and a viable future once he does relinquish control. ( as was the case with the emperor of Japan at the end of ww2)

so...
Offering Kim an acceptable post-unification future is what needs to be put on the table with an adequate schedule for implementation.

If agreed the South will manage the unification under the protective umbrella of the USA and possibly China.
(as did West Germany manage the unification with the East)

I believe this or something similar, is what is being worked on by the USA, NK and SK as a solution to this crisis...

The USA has been down this path before with the unification of Germany and should have learned from the experience.

I might add, I believe that this is probably the only solution or something very similar that would ensure a positive future for all parties.

The issue of de-nuclearization is actually a given.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Not from the people but from the small ruling class.

this is an important point often over looked by the West...
Kim is also being held to task by the system he inherited. In other words change is not that easy.

 

[Quantum Quack]

for any one interested this is a pdf of the
THE KOREAN WAR ARMISTICE AGREEMENT
Panmunjom, Korea, July 27, 1953
see attachment
the latest being the historic declaration this year between NK and SK 2018
Full text and video can be found here
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...korea-and-south-korea/?utm_term=.7babb9f24e77

 

[Schmelzer]

The problem is one of two things could happen:
- Kim, being happy that the US recognizes him, and feeling safer, disarms completely and opens his society more.
- Kim, feeling empowered by the official recognition of the US, expands his nuclear program to get more of the same attention and worldwide credibility.

In fact, both are not very probable.
Given the faith of Ghadafi, Kim has a strong interest not to disarm himself. The nuclear weapons, together with the intercontinental rockets to deliver them to their destination, are certainly a good life insurance.

This is something everybody knows - Kim, Trump, China, Russia - and diplomacy does not insist on conditions which will never be accepted, except one wants to preserve the actual situation. But what would be the advantage of Kim with intercontinental nuclear weapons in a state close to war (in actual economic war, and formally even a state of war) in comparison with Kim with intercontinental nuclear weapons in a state of detente, with income for NK from transit from SK to Russia/China?

Then, what would an expansion of the nuclear program give Kim? More of the same is nothing. With nuclear intercontinental weapons, deterrence of the US has reached a new qualitative level. Some more or more powerful nuclear weapons will not add anything here. A US politician attacking NK should be completely irresponsible and irrational even now. And if he is completely irresponsible and irrational, a few more nuclear weapons in NK make no difference at all. But it would endanger the relations with Russia/China, leading to sanctions instead of new transit incomes.

• Kim has indicated a strong desire for the unification of Korea.
• Kim knows that South Korea is a democracy and therefore knows that unification will not happen unless he stands down and allows for the the North to fall under the Souths democratic systems.
• There is no way the South would agree to Kim being their dictator.
• Kim and his family are also acutely aware that they face almost certain death once he relinquishes control over NK.

Forget about a reunification under democracy. Democracies are known to violate immunity agreements, with Pinochet as the example. And this is an inherent problem. There will be always enough people who would like to see revenge against the former dictator, and not care at all about "contracts should be fulfilled" in such a situation. And in a democracy, there will be always populists who would use this to win elections. And what, after this, prevents them from imprisoning the former dictator? Nothing.

The peace will have to accept the existence of two states, maybe hidden behind nice words about a future reunification. (Of course, SK is the sort of controlled fake democracy with a powerful deep state behind the scene, so there may be variants, but I doubt that this could change anything in this question. What would be the reason for Kim to trust, instead, the promises of the SK deep state?)

If agreed the South will manage the unification under the protective umbrella of the USA and possibly China.
(as did West Germany manage the unification with the East)

Another impossibility. China would never support the US playing any role at all in NK.

I might add, I believe that this is probably the only solution or something very similar that would ensure a positive future for all parties.

No. There is the much simpler straightforward solution. Peace with two independent states, with nice words about denuclearization and reunification in the future, no sanctions, and NK becoming part of the Chinese Silk road and the Russian pipeline empire. Peaceful evolution following the Chinese way - economic liberation without much political change. The advantage: Everybody gets some advantage in comparison with today. Except for the US globalists.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Forget about a reunification under democracy. Democracies are known to violate immunity agreements, with Pinochet as the example. And this is an inherent problem. There will be always enough people who would like to see revenge against the former dictator, and not care at all about "contracts should be fulfilled" in such a situation. And in a democracy, there will be always populists who would use this to win elections. And what, after this, prevents them from imprisoning the former dictator? Nothing.

The peace will have to accept the existence of two states, maybe hidden behind nice words about a future reunification. (Of course, SK is the sort of controlled fake democracy with a powerful deep state behind the scene, so there may be variants, but I doubt that this could change anything in this question. What would be the reason for Kim to trust, instead, the promises of the SK deep state?)

Good points

Another impossibility. China would never support the US playing any role at all in NK.

China already does have significant involvement, certainly a lot more than is publicly acknowledged and failure to secure a solution will only deepen that involvement. IMO

No. There is the much simpler straightforward solution. Peace with two independent states, with nice words about denuclearization and reunification in the future, no sanctions, and NK becoming part of the Chinese Silk road and the Russian pipeline empire. Peaceful evolution following the Chinese way - economic liberation without much political change. The advantage: Everybody gets some advantage in comparison with today. Except for the US globalists.

Except that the USA and the rest of the Western world will not accept a nuclear armed NK.
Which leads to the impasse that stands currently.
If one looks upon the recent agreements signed with out prejudice or cynicism there are already declarations signed that would lead to a solution where by the North will ultimately fall under the democratic umbrella of the South. Possibly granting a unified Korea with nuclear weapons potential temporarily until the transition process is well matured and actual.

It is up to the USA and China, I believe, to provide over sight and protection to both North and South until re-unification is almost completed and wmd's are finally removed.

I might add even with all the animosity the Western allied world (and China , Korea and Russia) had towards (ww2) Japan and the Japanese people the Emperor figure-head lived a long life, in relative comfort and freedom. He was not assassinated. Under the circumstances of extreme hatred, he should have been and one can only question why he was not....perhaps he was protected by the USA and Japanese governments or perhaps the people of the world were seeking to move forward and not look back to much.
Kim has repeatedly stated the ambition of de-nuclearization.

He isn't stupid enough not to realize that by his upping the ante by gaining nuclear WMD's he only has one shot at this or face inevitable national failure or even obliteration.
If he had remained non nuclear he would not have to do much at all... but by acquiring them he has put himself and his nation on the brink of total disaster where re-unification may be the only solution.

 

[Quantum Quack]

There is one other option which you alluded to and that is that China annexes North Korea and takes control of it's nuclear weapons program. which would put China on the border with South Korea. This is unlikely but not enirely unprecedented. (Tibet...)

 

[Quantum Quack]

gosh I am an idiot!!!

 

[Schmelzer]

Except that the USA and the rest of the Western world will not accept a nuclear armed NK.

Who cares?

Trump does not care. And the globalists after Trump have a problem: SK, China, and Russia will be fine with the actual situation, and the actual legal situation is that what is prescribed by international contracts is denuclearization of the whole Korea. Would they like to make a big deal to enforce that they have to take away their own nuclear weapons out of their South Korea bases?

Which leads to the impasse that stands currently.

No. There is a window of opportunity where a lot of useful things can be done. Once Trump said he expects this question to be solved during his first term, he has no reason to care about this question at all until his second term starts. A lot of things can be done during this time. Irreversible things. The Chinese have already suggested about suspending (of course, only temporarily ) the UN sanctions. If this succeeds, NK is safe, given that to resuscitate them after this you need the agreement of China and Russia.

If one looks upon the recent agreements signed with out prejudice or cynicism there are already declarations signed that would lead to a solution where by the North will ultimately fall under the democratic umbrella of the South.

No. I see nothing in this direction. Democracy makes no sense for Kim. It makes no sense for the Chinese to enforce it. Russia is a democracy but does not care about inner politics of other states, thus, will not care about this.

It is up to the USA and China, I believe, to provide over sight and protection to both North and South until re-unification is almost completed and wmd's are finally removed.

I see no base for such a scenario at all. Note that I have some personal background here: I have seriously considered German reunification as a reasonable possibility during the Winter 1988/89. Feel free to search for others who have at that time.

I might add even with all the animosity the Western allied world (and China , Korea and Russia) had towards (ww2) Japan and the Japanese people the Emperor figure-head lived a long life, in relative comfort and freedom. He was not assassinated. Under the circumstances of extreme hatred, he should have been and one can only question why he was not....perhaps he was protected by the USA and Japanese governments or perhaps the people of the world were seeking to move forward and not look back to much.
Kim has repeatedly stated the ambition of de-nuclearization.

He isn't stupid enough not to realize that by his upping the ante by gaining nuclear WMD's he only has one shot at this or face inevitable national failure or even obliteration.
If he had remained non nuclear he would not have to do much at all... but by acquiring them he has put himself and his nation on the brink of total disaster where re-unification may be the only solution.

I completely disagree (or have completely misunderstood your point). Nuclear weapons are a life insurance for Kim. Without them, he would have been the straightforward victim of the next Ghadafi-like US terrorist regime change operation.

 

[Bells]

If one looks upon the recent agreements signed with out prejudice or cynicism there are already declarations signed that would lead to a solution where by the North will ultimately fall under the democratic umbrella of the South. Possibly granting a unified Korea with nuclear weapons potential temporarily until the transition process is well matured and actual.

Can you point out exactly where?

It is up to the USA and China, I believe, to provide over sight and protection to both North and South until re-unification is almost completed and wmd's are finally removed.

Can you please explain how this could possibly happen and please provide links to show how you came up with this, ermm, scenario?

Because there is absolutely no evidence to suggest this is even remotely possible or desired by any party.

I might add even with all the animosity the Western allied world (and China , Korea and Russia) had towards (ww2) Japan and the Japanese people the Emperor figure-head lived a long life, in relative comfort and freedom. He was not assassinated. Under the circumstances of extreme hatred, he should have been and one can only question why he was not....perhaps he was protected by the USA and Japanese governments or perhaps the people of the world were seeking to move forward and not look back to much.

Hirohito was not tried for war crimes because MacArthur decided that his freedom was necessary to ensure a smooth transition for Japan.

Kim has repeatedly stated the ambition of de-nuclearization.

But this is not the first time North Korea has promised to abandon its nuclear efforts. (In truth, even this was simply a reaffirmation of a denuclearization pledge Kim had already made in April.) Nor is it the second time, or the third. The offer has resurfaced over the past several decades with surprising regularity. And it has never panned out so far.

“There’s definitely a pattern where the North Koreans agree to denuclearize in theory, but then there’s not really a substantive process that they agree to, to actually hammer it out,” says James McKeon, a policy analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

Those failures don’t necessarily come down to bad faith, or at least not entirely. In fact, the 1994 Agreed Framework between the US and North Korea, in which the North gave up its plutonium enrichment in exchange for aid, resulted in a roughly eight-year stretch of calm. That eventually collapsed too, though, as North Korea’s pursuit of enriched uranium and the George W. Bush administration’s hawkish stance imploded the already shaky scaffolding.

But in general, North Korea uses denuclearization as a bargaining chip in times of desperation. “Usually they suffer some kind of internal crisis, and then start acting in a really threatening way to try to get people to give them stuff,” says Mieke Eoyang, a national security analyst for center-left think tank Third Way.

In this instance, Eoyang argues, Trump gave the longtime US adversary far too much. “It’s substantively worse than what any other president has done,” she says, noting that the joint exercises aren’t just for show. The US rotates troops in and out of South Korea every few years; training with local counterparts helps newly stationed units prepare for potential North Korean aggression.

In return for that real loss, the US gained the same promise North Korea has made since 1985, without a single specific about how to accomplish it. There’s no agreement on inspections. North Korea doesn’t have to declare the facilities it has, much less dismantle them, to say nothing of destroying actual warheads.​

This is actually the 7th time that the regime has promised denuclearisation...

There is a reason why Kim Jong Un was so vague. We have been through this many times before.

He isn't stupid enough not to realize that by his upping the ante by gaining nuclear WMD's he only has one shot at this or face inevitable national failure or even obliteration.
If he had remained non nuclear he would not have to do much at all... but by acquiring them he has put himself and his nation on the brink of total disaster where re-unification may be the only solution.

Wow....

 

[Quantum Quack]

No. I see nothing in this direction. Democracy makes no sense for Kim.

so you are saying that when Kim talks of re-unification with the SK leadership and the USA leadership he is full on lying?

The important point is that South Korea would never allow a dictatorship to rule a unified Korea. Am I safe in making that claim?
If so then why do you think Kim wishes to see re-unification and maintain his Stalinistic dictatorship?
I don't think Kim is silly enough to consider a reunified Korea as his personal fiefdom.
so..... he is either lying big time or he is genuine in his quest for re-unification.
If he is genuine then he can not possibly consider staying in power. see? (this is one of the reasons why I am proposing the solution I did ~post#8)

But if as you suggest Kim is lying through his back teeth and all his signings recently were fraudulent then this will become obvious rather quickly I feel.
What do you think will be USA reaction if Kim reneges on his solemn and sincere pledges, when everything he has asked for has more or less been given?

The situation today is unprecedented in NK history. Kim actually has Nuclear weapons. It is no longer a case of developing nuclear weapons. He also has developed ICBM's. Strategically this is vastly different to what it was under his fathers rule.

The USA will not allow NK maintain nuclear wmd's. period.

Therefore for NK the only solution is to seek re-unification... again another reason why I am proposing the solution in post #8

Hirohito was not tried for war crimes because MacArthur decided that his freedom was necessary to ensure a smooth transition for Japan.

exactly .. which is directly related to why I posted the most likely solution in post#8
an amnesty for Kim and family and a viable future if and when he relinquishes control of NK. during the re-unification process.

 

[Quantum Quack]

I completely disagree (or have completely misunderstood your point). Nuclear weapons are a life insurance for Kim.

But they can also be a death sentence...which is what the world is attempting to avoid.

 

[iceaura]

No. I see nothing in this direction. Democracy makes no sense for Kim. It makes no sense for the Chinese to enforce it. Russia is a democracy but does not care about inner politics of other states, thus, will not care about this.

Russia is not a democracy, and doesn't want them around - so it's unanimous.
The problem is that nothing else makes sense for NK either. As a Chinese vassal (your term for this situation) Kim will not be allowed equivalent status with Chinese leaders, and so the abuse of the population will not be relieved.

If this succeeds, NK is safe, given that to resuscitate them after this you need the agreement of China and Russia.

You mean the current NK regime will be safe.
NK - regarded as its population - will never be safe under its current regime. Neither will its neighbors - China is looking at the possibility of a refugee crisis that would strain even its substantial resources, if that regime falls. It will have to be propped up indefinitely.

I might add even with all the animosity the Western allied world (and China , Korea and Russia) had towards (ww2) Japan and the Japanese people the Emperor figure-head lived a long life, in relative comfort and freedom. He was not assassinated. Under the circumstances of extreme hatred, he should have been and one can only question why he was not....perhaps he was protected by the USA and Japanese governments

Yep. Military guard.

 

[Quantum Quack]

There is another potential solution other than re-unification, that may lead to a resolution of the current nuclear disarmament dilemma. I have been loath to post it for "superstitious" perhaps paranoid reasons. ( not wanting to inspire any NK or Chinese monitors of this thread with ideas that may lead to disaster)

I am confident the parties involved have considered it and are still actively considering it. ( they are after all not lacking in intellectual resources)
any how...

As the sanctions continue to decimate the NK economy and food security, a humanitarian crisis is gaining momentum in NK,
Kim may invite** China to step in and take control of NK under the political ruse of humanitarianism. Kim regime would step down under the protection of the Chinese and NK would become an autonomous territory of the Chinese Republic.
This would effectively place China on the border with South Korea and in control of any military personnel and military hardware including nuclear.

**invite : may be coerced or forced to publicly invite Chinese intervention under the pretense of protecting the welfare of his population and relieving NK of USA threats.

Do you think this could be a plausible Chinese Government strategy?