Is the US heading for Recession
- Thread starter Asguard
- Start date
Social Security and Medicare are not insurance. Social Security and Medicare are welfare and taxes. There was never a contract. There was never a promise. The yearly statements projecting what you will receive at retirement creates the illusion of a promise but it is not legally binding. I have read that laws in public record make it clear that no future benefit has been promised.
That kind of deceptive behavior if done by private parties could go either way in a court of law depending on the whims of the Judges and their interpretation of law. If the fine print of the contract conflicts with how common sense would make the buyer interpret the sales pitch the judge has to make a make a decision as to whether the sales pitch rose to the level of fraud and whether the buyer had the responsibility to read the fine print of the contract.
Future politicians will do what ever is politically expedient for them regarding Social Security and Medicare. The supreme court would never rule that people's expectations of certain levels of Social Security and Medicare support are legally enforceable.
That kind of deceptive behavior if done by private parties could go either way in a court of law depending on the whims of the Judges and their interpretation of law. If the fine print of the contract conflicts with how common sense would make the buyer interpret the sales pitch the judge has to make a make a decision as to whether the sales pitch rose to the level of fraud and whether the buyer had the responsibility to read the fine print of the contract.
Future politicians will do what ever is politically expedient for them regarding Social Security and Medicare. The supreme court would never rule that people's expectations of certain levels of Social Security and Medicare support are legally enforceable.
In answer to thread's question: I hope so. Return to recession would be a step in the right direction as the IMF says we are NOW in depression:
"... Advanced economies are already in a depression and the financial crisis may deepen unless the banking system is fixed, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
“The worst cannot be ruled out. ... “All this will work if, and only if, the different countries are likely to do what they have to do in terms of restructuring the banking sector*,” he said. “And today it’s not done.”
The U.S. economy has lost 3.57 million jobs since a recession started in December 2007**, ... as companies from Macy’s Inc. to Caterpillar Inc. cut costs. The U.K. economy will shrink this year by the most since 1946, the IMF forecasts. ..."
“There is hope that the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures being implemented around the world can help turn things around,” said David Cohen, Singapore-based director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics. “But there is still the risk it can be short-circuited by further financial turmoil.”
FROM: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6aaWZ8ab8yU&refer=home
---------------
*IS THAT A REFERENCE TO "PRIVATIZATION"?
**Half of those 3.6e6 jobs were lost in the last three months, so the rate of job loss has accelerated (on annual average)*** by factor of three. Accelerated by a factor of about 8 in one year. (Jan08's loss was 75,000; Jan09's loss is 600,000). I agree with the IMF as statistics have a couple of months lag in them and with this acceleration Things are worse than reported; HOWEVER, it will not really get bad for most Americans until the run on the dollar starts and their saving are wiped out. Get some money into Brazilian Real or Chinese Yuan while you can at very bargain exchange rate prices.
*** The last four months of 2007 had net job creation in US, averaging about 125,000 per month. July and August of 2007 had the typical net loss (about 35,000 each in average) but the other 10 months of 2007 all had average net increase of more than 100,000. Things are early different now and rapidly growing worse on the job front.
The question now is how deep and how long will the depression be? As I said at start: Let's hope we can get back to recession in a year or two.
"... Advanced economies are already in a depression and the financial crisis may deepen unless the banking system is fixed, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
“The worst cannot be ruled out. ... “All this will work if, and only if, the different countries are likely to do what they have to do in terms of restructuring the banking sector*,” he said. “And today it’s not done.”
The U.S. economy has lost 3.57 million jobs since a recession started in December 2007**, ... as companies from Macy’s Inc. to Caterpillar Inc. cut costs. The U.K. economy will shrink this year by the most since 1946, the IMF forecasts. ..."
“There is hope that the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures being implemented around the world can help turn things around,” said David Cohen, Singapore-based director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics. “But there is still the risk it can be short-circuited by further financial turmoil.”
FROM: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6aaWZ8ab8yU&refer=home
---------------
*IS THAT A REFERENCE TO "PRIVATIZATION"?
**Half of those 3.6e6 jobs were lost in the last three months, so the rate of job loss has accelerated (on annual average)*** by factor of three. Accelerated by a factor of about 8 in one year. (Jan08's loss was 75,000; Jan09's loss is 600,000). I agree with the IMF as statistics have a couple of months lag in them and with this acceleration Things are worse than reported; HOWEVER, it will not really get bad for most Americans until the run on the dollar starts and their saving are wiped out. Get some money into Brazilian Real or Chinese Yuan while you can at very bargain exchange rate prices.
*** The last four months of 2007 had net job creation in US, averaging about 125,000 per month. July and August of 2007 had the typical net loss (about 35,000 each in average) but the other 10 months of 2007 all had average net increase of more than 100,000. Things are early different now and rapidly growing worse on the job front.
The question now is how deep and how long will the depression be? As I said at start: Let's hope we can get back to recession in a year or two.
Last edited by a moderator:
kmguru
Staff member
I do not have any stats to see what has happened in the UK. In US, we developed about $5678 Billion trade deficit in primarily manufactured goods in the last 8 years. According to my engineering economics, the multiplier effect of manufacturing is 8 to 12 times. Taking 8 times, if we had a trade balance, we would have had atleast a $19 Trillion GDP.
Now, I wonder if, UK followed our foot steps and played with Financial Instruments rather than Manufacturing.
"... The U.S. will sell $32 billion in three-year notes on Feb. 10, $21 billion in 10-year notes Feb. 11 and $14 billion in 30- year bonds Feb. 12, ...
The department will issue seven-year notes later this month for the first time since 1993, and plans to boost the frequency of 30-year bond sales, the Treasury said. Officials are weighing the “reintroduction or establishment” of other securities.
The government will need to auction $493 billion in debt this quarter, 34 percent more than initially projected, the Treasury said on Feb. 2.
It will probably borrow as much as $2.5 trillion during the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, {2009}...
The sales are the government’s response to a surging budget shortfall. Treasury’s primary dealers projected a $1.6 trillion deficit for 2009, according to the results of a survey released Feb. 2. That’s more than triple the record set last year. ..."
FROM: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aStoHZRPLJa0&refer=home
Can the collapse of the dollar be more than couple of years away now?
PS to the workers at the USmint:
Please check out the presses - soon they will need to run 24/7/365 with little down time for maintance if the banks have failed (electronic dollar creation not working.)
The department will issue seven-year notes later this month for the first time since 1993, and plans to boost the frequency of 30-year bond sales, the Treasury said. Officials are weighing the “reintroduction or establishment” of other securities.
The government will need to auction $493 billion in debt this quarter, 34 percent more than initially projected, the Treasury said on Feb. 2.
It will probably borrow as much as $2.5 trillion during the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, {2009}...
The sales are the government’s response to a surging budget shortfall. Treasury’s primary dealers projected a $1.6 trillion deficit for 2009, according to the results of a survey released Feb. 2. That’s more than triple the record set last year. ..."
FROM: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aStoHZRPLJa0&refer=home
Can the collapse of the dollar be more than couple of years away now?
PS to the workers at the USmint:
Please check out the presses - soon they will need to run 24/7/365 with little down time for maintance if the banks have failed (electronic dollar creation not working.)
Last edited by a moderator: