I think it's inevitable to return to an economy based almost solely on agriculture.
Balderdash. We're already
two Paradigm Shifts past the Bronze Age, the last level of civilization in which agriculture was the dominant economic activity. The Industrial Revolution automated agriculture, freeing up 97% of the population to invent more enjoyable, interesting and valuable professions--which are also considerably less hard on the human body. The Electronic Revolution continues that trend, with the new wrinkle that electronic systems use far less energy than industrial systems.
Commuting alone accounts for one-fourth of America's petroleum usage, and when the new generation of kids who have been using cellphones, online databases and webcams since birth take over, only a small percentage of the population will have to "go to work." Other post-industrial efficiencies will reduce energy use even further.
This is what the founders envisioned anyway.
The founders were nice guys but they could barely glimpse what the Industrial Revolution was going to do to America, much less electronics.
We won't be feeding billions anymore, only ourselves.
Then who's going to feed the billions? Digitally controlled industrial farming needs to be performed on a fairly large scale or it becomes too labor-intensive
and too resource-inefficient, and we end up halfway back to the Stone Age. Maybe you're one of the neo-hippies who thinks it would be romantic to grow your own tomatoes, but my mother had a vegetable garden back in the 1950s and I never want to see another tomato plant close up as long as I live. Besides, it was a terribly inefficient and expensive way to feed a family. What a colossal waste of water!
But there will be a lot of work to do.
And most of it will be done sitting down, as it is today.
I think Arthur is attempting to depoliticize the issue by shifting it into the realm of personal responsibility. It's the same thing that capitalists do when they emphasize the importance of charity. Don't even think about changing the system in any meaningful way, just put a band-aid on it called charity.
My screed about the future of capitalism has been posted on this forum about ten times. The huge concentrations of capital that were necessary for the monstrous projects of the Industrial Revolution are no longer needed. The era of the mega-corporation is lurching to a close as they scavenge each other's rotting corpses, pick off a few useable shards, and then fall into the pile. A few large companies that provide the infrastructure of the Information Age, such as FedEx, Apple and Google, will survive, but they won't have the critical mass to dominate government like today's corporate class. The corporation is arguably an artifact of the Industrial Era and may fade into history.
Don't you also think there's a more moderate segment of at least fairly well informed people who lean towards the Greenies, but also understand that economies will move on, with or without starving masses.... In other words, there probably are some fairly sensible folks who aren't advocating that we cut any corners, but they understand at least that CO2 levels are rising, and they would like our governments to be preparing for contingencies, whatever those may be, by relying on whoever the experts are, for guidance.
Sure, but those people don't yell at us like the extremists at both poles do.
I've posted extensively on how much energy we use today.
Which will probably be the peak value for all history. Some processes are becoming more energy-efficient, such as lighting. Conservation measures are working, such as better insulation in dwellings and more diesel engines. And energy-intensive activities are being phased out, such as commuting, which I already covered.
What I also know though is that the veracity of any message is considered based on the person giving the message, and so far they have been saying one thing but living a totally different lifestyle.
Say what you want about opposable thumbs and controlled fire, but I think what distinguishes humans from all other animals is our capacity for cognitive dissonance.
So yes, computer communication may not be carbon neutral, but it is many magnitudes more carbon efficient then flying 30,000 people to Bali or Cancun or Copenhagen or Durban, to discuss being carbon efficient.
The day will come when most travel requiring an engine will be for recreation and/or socializing.
What they are saying is important, but their actions are also important.
I remember a few years ago there was a conservation conference in Brazil. After hours the delegates went out for some fun, and one carload found itself a little farther from town than they had intended to be. A huge crowd of rural folks rushed over and were very enthusiastic to meet them. The delegates thought this was a great opportunity to preach to them about conservation. No no no. They all had one question: How can I get a nice big car like the one you're using?
It's time to not only make pronouncements about how people should change, but for those making the pronouncements to make the changes they advocate for the rest of us. You know, actually LEAD by example.
Have you ever tried to explain to your boss that you, he, your company, your customers, your country, and the entire human race would be better off if he let you work at home? Did you count the number of reasons he had rehearsed for saying No?
1/3 of the energy we use now is not adequate to prevent widespread economic collapse. In the future we need ever increasing amounts of energy.
Not clear. As I already suggested, the Industrial Era may have been the human race's high watermark for per-capita energy consumption.
Since that isn't going to happen, even with a combination of alternative energy, we need to re-think our way of life. I'm not saying it's going to be Armageddon, but it will be difficult and we as a nation are totally unprepared.
Transportation is our biggest single energy-guzzler in the USA, and we've made tremendous strides. The average car got about 17mpg back in the 1950s when they all had tail fins, and nobody car-pooled. Most of the kids who had cars in high school had "hot rods" that used even more gas than that. But beyond that, today's houses have better insulation, we're moving away from incandescent lightbulbs, and even our solid-state electronics use less energy than vacuum tubes.
Wait for the sea change when the MOMRPG generation goes to work... by staying home. "What do you mean, I need to be sitting next to somebody in order to work together?"
Because I think they were correct. Real wealth comes from practical necessities like food, not meaningless pieces of paper or electrons.
Ah, the Luddites are still with us. "Wealth" is whatever we value. Software and databases are extremely valuable, as are recorded music and TV shows.
We are, after all, going to have to change everything to become more local . . .
Ridiculous! We now have the technology to transcend provinciality, and it's dirt cheap! Americans wept over the real-time cellphone videos of Neda Agha Soltan being gunned down in a street in Tehran. That is
not local. This connectivity is what will damp down our tendency to fight war. When we all have friends everywhere, nobody's going to want to shoot anybody.
