Like I said, the only way Blu Ray is going to prevail, is if regular DVD production is halted. Consumers are NOT choosing Blu Ray over DVD. IF this Chinese system can get into production in the next couple of years, and be cheaper, Blu Ray will need to lessen it's price AND sort out the tacky plastic boxes.
How are you so confused by this? I'm not debating with you about DVD Vs. BluRay. There's no debate: DVD is the dominant format. It will be (as I said) for a number of years. I'm debating with you about BluRay Vs. HDDVD. As I pointed out, and which you seem to be forgetting, DVD is the
legacy format. DVD, itself, experienced slow growth until after 2000. It didn't become the "dominant" format until Walmart and Target BOTH stated that they'd totally phase out VHS by 2005.
The point I'm making is that BluRay currently has 100% of the High Def format. HDDVD has none. It will not elbow into that format because of the industrial momentum that has catapulted BluRay into the lead.
It's had three years. People clearly aren't keen to drop DVD in favour of it.
Again, you're confusing the two issues. There's the legacy format and the new format. New formats generally take a while to catch on. In this case, during a very down economy, it is believed that BluRay will take another two years to being seeing a ROI. The same happened with DVD Vs. VHS.
There is nothing wrong with DVD.
Who said there was? I own several of them myself. I admittedly have a HDTV and BluRay player (the former bought for under $300 at an auction and the latter bought as a reman from a seller on eBay for under $100) and my boyfriend and I just watched Season 1 of Dexter on DVD (which we own) and we were impressed by just how great it looked on the new TV. But, there are some noticeable differences, especially in stereo and picture quality. BluRay is just insane in it's vividness. DVD, while great, is... well, it's not BluRay. During this economic slump, DVD for most people works just fine.
Consumers don't want Blu Ray.
All of them? Every single one?
Actually, consumers
do want BluRay, they just aren't prepared to fork out the bucks. I've yet to meet a buyer who said, "Shucks, I don't want better stuff." Just, most of them are now forced to recognize the worth of their dollars.
Again, this introduction parallels the shift from VHS to DVD. The only thing slowing it down now is a bad economy. Moreover, DVD's were introduced on a massive scale back in '98 and didn't dominate totally until around 2003. That's five years. Major retailers didn't pull VHS until 2005. BluRay will move slower (people not only have to upgrade the player but their TV's too: that's a big investment), but that same investment would be required for HDDVD as well. Since, in either case, an upgrade would be necessary, the smart money is on BluRay.
If a product becomes available cheaper, that is backwardly compatible it will easily supplant the weak market share Blu Ray has.
Doubtful. As I pointed out, which point you ignored, the distribution and production of BluRay has already been set. Markets are loath to make such adjustments, especially when the adjustment will be, basically, for the exact same thing (an HD disk for an HD disk). If, and this is a big "if", HDDVD experienced a mild restart, the industry would snuff it out by way of a price cut and saturation.
I didn't say I sold DVDs, did I?
No, but you implied an understanding of the market forces behind product supply by your statement. It was misleading and very incorrect.
Seems that the public, you know, the people with the money, don't share your opinions, Mr Up His Own Arse.
My opinion? My opinion is that BluRay has won. That's all that I stated. You, Philogistician, are the one who has confused a dominance of a legacy format like DVD for a debate between new formats. It's really rather silly, actually.
I've stated my opinion already: DVD will continue to be the dominant format for two to five more years. The governmental shift away from the old signal formats, in both the USA and Europe, will force most people to upgrade to High Def within that time frame. Prices on those TVs will continue to drop. Even after a total upgrade DVD's will still be relevant for another decade since all BluRay players are backwards compatible. During this time, the prices on BluRay players will continue to drop (you can find them, already, for under a hundred dollars USA) which will pull more people into that format.
Blu Ray is not selling in volume, because it's too expensive.
Did I not already say this? BluRay is the new format. It won't occupy a significant market share for another few years.
DVD is keeping it's market, because it's cheap.
I'm sorry, were you debating HDDVD's possible resurgence or DVD's relevance? As I stated, I'm not arguing about DVD. It's the legacy format and will continue to dominate. The margins that BluRay occupy will only continue to rise in the years to come because of regulations in the broadcast industries that have forced them to upgrade to HD formats. BluRay will follow suit.
Blu Ray will have to lower it's prices, or fail.
Yeah. I said this like six times. It's exactly what they would do to snuff out any upstart.
... they are exposing themselves to being surpassed by the new format selling to the 88% of consumers who have not switched yet. It's simple, why don't you grasp it?
Me? I grasp it. In fact, what I don't understand is how you've confused a debate about HD formats for a debate between a legacy and HD format. That's just weird. I mean, it's a frakking entertainment format. More to the point, it would appear that you, in your haste, have confused the debate between HDDVD and BluRay and somehow included (out of desperation to seem relevant?) DVD which is a total non sequitur. But sure, bring it up. I've already stated that it will be some years before BluRay becomes totally dominant.
The technical capacity isn't the thing that's going to convert the remaining 88% of the market, is it, so why do you bring it up?
Because you said, "Betamax was technically superior to VHS. What's your point? Customers don't give a rats ass about the numbers, the majority want bang for buck, and it's weighted towards the buck." With distain.
And before that you said, "So I'll buy a Chinese made HD DVD player."
And I pointed out that quality must not mean anything to you, because BluRay is actually technically superior having greater end capacity of storage. You seemed not to care about the end quality, only about the fact that the name bothered you and the silly blue packaging. Which is odd, because HDDVD's were just as expensive and the players, before being pulled from the market, were just as expensive.
Did you read the article linked in the OP? Where is Asia?
Really? That's your argument? Because India is next door to China it will do whatever China does, and buy into whatever comes from that economy. You lumped them together in order to add weight to your argument. It's a common debate tactic. People often times use it when they say something about someone they don't like, "Well, Suzy is a jerk, and everybody I know says so!" See: it wasn't that the person complaining was upset about Suzy, she also needed to include other people to make her argument relevant.
You did the same thing. Fact is, India is another non sequitur, but you included its population (because it's so big) because it made you look smart (see TWO BILLION PEOPLE!) as if Indians with disposable income would somehow jump on a bandwagon that you've totally contrived. Why not Vietnam them? Or Japan? Or Indonesia? Shit, you should have just said EVERYBODY in Asia and made it about 3 billion people!
I said people purchase on price.
Duh. They especially purchase on price during a down economy, which means that any upgrade, if and when, will not happen too quickly.
That's why they are still buying DVDs in far larger volume.
But they'll buy this totally hypothetical format, for which you've argued quite passionately, which doesn't even exist in production yet, which already failed, even against competitive odds of a dominant format that already in production?
Right.
Consumers don't care about the format, Blu Ray or DVD
Actually, they do. Consumer trends tend to veer towards the newest and the best. People instinctively want the best. It's human nature. Price, usually slows them down. Prices continue to drop on BluRays. Eventually, they'll be within striking range of most middle class consumers. That's how the market works.
It happened with GPS locators and remote locks in cars (originally available luxury models). It happened with cell phone technology. It is currently happening with television technology.
With your alleged expertise, you should understand that.
You mean, the point that I made like fifteen times in this thread?
" I can wait until then for prices to fall to a reasonable level, however that happens and competition is GOOD, and I hope this new format wakes up the lazy, sloppy Blu Ray marketeers."
Which means I recognised that competition from a new format could see Blu Ray drop it's prices to compete. Have trouble with comprehension?
No. Well, I mean, I didn't confuse a simple debate about HDDVD and BluRay with DVD, so I guess I might be missing something.
But I'm listening.
If it's cheaper, it's serious competition.
Indeed, and I mentioned that any upstart in the HDDVD world would simply cause BluRay to cut costs to drive it out of business. You were saying something earlier about "comprehension", so how did you miss this point?
Blu Ray is being outsold by the cheaper regular DVD format in those very outlets.
You're really still confusing the whole "legacy" thing, aren't you?
Not true. I'm still happy with DVD.
Your statement here is in response to my statement that you'd prefer HDDVD from China to BluRay. We weren't talking DVD. Besides, your statement about prefering "HDDVD" is an absolute statement and disregards price or quality. And in this case, BluRay is actually better quality. Comparing DVD quality to BluRay is pointless. BluRay (and HDDVD) are better.
The upgrade to HDDVD and/or BluRay is the debate. You said you'd buy a HDDVD from China. This seems a political choice rather than a choice based on price or quality. It may well be, but the fact is, you won't have that choice. As I said, HDDVD is dead. Permanently.
12% market share is 'winning'?
Are you really that confused?
Philogistician, I not debating the slow move from DVD to BluRay. You and I were discussing the "format war" between BluRay and HDDVD? Why is this so confusing? To this point, I said that BluRay had won (against HDDVD). That much was settled (well, not with you it wasn't). There is no "war" between DVD and BluRay since all makers now make both. In fact, the makers of DVD all hope you upgrade to the new format. DVD sales are flat and the market really isn't going anywhere. It's through BluRay that the makers of DVDs and DVD players will begin to see increased returns.
Well, that's a dishonest dividing line considering it's possibly going to resurface in China, isn't it?
In the world of marketing one does not speak of "possibilities". One talks about certainties. It's a certainty that BluRay has won against HDDVD and that the legacy DVD format will slowly be phased out during the next decade. It's a certainty because the non-committed parties (who sat out the format war in order to save money) have now all invested their precious dollars into BluRay, and
that bell cannot be un-rung. An upstart, who offers nothing but the same quality but at a lower price will only drive the market to (a) elbow them out by suffocation (no distribution and/or investment dollars) (b) buy them out directly (and then allow the format to die) or (c) undercut them by cutting prices temporarily until they die, then raising them again (or leaving them cut, who knows).
It's been three years, you telling me Blu Ray sales are going to quadruple, and equal DVD sales in the next 2-5 years?
It's precisely what happened to VHS. Or don't you remember?
I was correct when I said the only way Blu Ray will supplant DVD sales is if consumer choice is restricted.
Duh. Your choices
are restricted. The market cannot survive with a hundred formats. For example, you we cannot have choices between 5:3, 16:9; 4:3 or 7:4 aspect ratios. The system couldn't handle it. TV and Movie studios couldn't handle the production costs of all four. The same is true of High Def disk production. It would be one thing if we were debating about substantial differences in quality, but we aren't.
What we have here is a, essentially, a price centered debate. The interesting thing is, even if HDDVD re-surged, the prices would be the same because the capital investment that would be needed to bring it back would be so tremendous that it would, essentially pad the costs to the net effect of making it the same (or more) in price as BluRay.
Everything seems cheap on the small scale. Try to get a product into production and distributed throughout the world, and the prices necessarily go up to accommodate those costs.
You have no statistics to prove otherwise, just conjecture.
You mean, beyond the "statistics" that BluRay already accounts for 100% of all high def formats sold? That it is the ONLY high def format in production, distribution and sales throughout the world? NO. I guess I've got nothing.
~String
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