Global Population Predictions

geordief said:
"Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born" https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5340952 1

They are dropping very sharply and in ways that would change the way the world looks.

I wonder how good this research is.

Pity us poor pensioners :) ?
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Well pity the pensioners of the next generation, anyway. It looks as if society will be a lot older and people will have to work longer before they retire.

But look on the bright side: if SARS-CoV-2 really is a "boomer remover", as they call it at my son's school, maybe it will cull us oldies and restore the balance in the population. :biggrin:
 
exchemist said:
Well pity the pensioners of the next generation, anyway. It looks as if society will be a lot older and people will have to work longer before they retire.

But look on the bright side: if SARS-CoV-2 really is a "boomer remover", as they call it at my son's school, maybe it will cull us oldies and restore the balance in the population. :biggrin:
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If unchecked it may cull them too ,when they get to middle age if reports of lasting damage are true.

I am also wondering about the flu in this and subsequent winter seasons. Will it have a weaker population to infect so long as this Covid strain remains in circulation?
 
geordief said:
I am also wondering about the flu in this and subsequent winter seasons. Will it have a weaker population to infect so long as this Covid strain remains in circulation?
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Chances are it will be a less impactful flu season, on the basis that the social distancing and hygiene measures will likely still be in place (obviously except the USA ;)), and that is good for the prevention of flu as well as Covid.
 
exchemist said:
Well pity the pensioners of the next generation, anyway. It looks as if society will be a lot older and people will have to work longer before they retire.
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In the US: Only if tax policy continues to shunt all produced surplus wealth - seriously, all of it, for going on fifty years now - into return to capital.

A restoration of even some of the discarded New Deal features (such as "progressive" taxation of all income) would cover not only shorter work hours but earlier retirement from paid work altogether.
exchemist said:
But look on the bright side: if SARS-CoV-2 really is a "boomer remover", as they call it at my son's school, maybe it will cull us oldies and restore the balance in the population
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The oldies that survive, plus the crippled up younger folk, project to be more expensive and burdensome - not less.

Doctors on the line have been de facto censored (by threats to supplies and money and badly need government help), but there are at least two doctors from the first hot spots - doctors who have been treating US patients from the beginning - who have stated for the record (anonymously, of course) that they have never seen a hospitalized Covid patient recover their normal physical health or anything like it. They suspect similar long-term damage has been and is being inflicted on many infected people who were not hospitalized.
 
geordief said:
Pity us poor pensioners :) ?
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pity the rich ?
pity the voter for whom they chose ?
pity the power ?

what type of pity ?
is pity charity ?

geordief said:
ways that would change the way the world looks.
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boom n bust economics

outsourcing manufacturing
out sourcing production
out sourcing manual labour
out sourcing administration

geordief said:
I wonder how good this research is.
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it is unlikely to be research
it is much more likely to be a media employee
collecting data and then presenting it

birth rates are not a mysterious hidden complex set of data
you can find all the info on the web from the government web sites

there are 3 to 5 or soo key factors

india culture wealth poverty
china one child policy culture wealth poverty
africa culture wealth poverty famine

western culture & technology

thats about it


economic models
global economics
macro-economics
economic trends
Key Global market drivers & trends
Market culture behavior trends & evolution/technology

more of the hidden mysterious stuff which is equally HUGE money
social economics

what part are you unsure of ?
 
elte said:
Here's an article that describes an economic future, taking into account economic history.

https://amp.scmp.com/comment/opinio...-reserve-created-financial-opioid-crisis-west
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There is nothing in that article that refers to predicted population levels in the 21st century,which is what the thread is really about.

The article I linked to (and which addresses that issue) is really very startling.

I still wonder how reliable it is as I have been unable to track down the source of the actual study and have heard little more about it so far on the airways.
 
elte said:
Here's an article that describes an economic future, taking into account economic history.

https://amp.scmp.com/comment/opinio...-reserve-created-financial-opioid-crisis-west
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With high investment and low productivity, the current tech darlings are looking more like tech Kardashians. Tech mania is now fuelled by star power; knowing how to tease is half the battle.
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im waiting for the collectors edition kanye trump doll
president Toby mind shackles & the holograms
"truly truly trully black-ness.... for president"

Toby Mind Shackles & the Holograms
Present
My Big Black Ass Tour
new singles include
Population in my Trunk
I gotta junk
Black Ass Blues
Black money more junk inside my trunk
5051308577_e4c57d9f38_b.jpg


would make an awesome series of south park episodes
 
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geordief said:
There is nothing in that article that refers to predicted population levels in the 21st century,which is what the thread is really about.

The article I linked to (and which addresses that issue) is really very startling.

I still wonder how reliable it is as I have been unable to track down the source of the actual study and have heard little more about it so far on the airways.
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Sorry I meant to post it in "The Post Whatever Thread"

My thought on the year 2100 population is that any estimates are likely to be way off.
 
elte said:
Sorry I meant to post it in "The Post Whatever Thread"

My thought on the year 2100 population is that any estimates are likely to be way off.
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No problem. I am sceptical too,of course but that estimate could be way off and still be an improvement on what I would have expected.

Since all predictions come with an inbuilt margin of error then I suppose the actual figures might even turn out to be lower than that forecast.
 
geordief said:
No problem. I am sceptical too,of course but that estimate could be way off and still be an improvement on what I would have expected.

Since all predictions come with an inbuilt margin of error then I suppose the actual figures might even turn out to be lower than that forecast.
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Thanks.

If the philosophy of antinatalism were to gain strength, it could go very low or even to zero. An idea about why there aren't known extraterrestrials is that any other advanced civilizations determine that existence is ultimately pointless.
 
geordief said:
Since all predictions come with an inbuilt margin of error then I suppose the actual figures might even turn out to be lower than that forecast.
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culture & science and wealth drive birth rates
modern western society is having less children because they know its the only way to secure a better more stable future

3rd world and religious countrys think they need to invade the world with their children by breeding like rats
3rd world countrys make money to trade off the low value of life they have in exchange for master wealth to the slave master to survive longer
feudal system

so you have 2 completely different systems competing in a global market

you cant simply mix the 2 together and suggest they can both be quantified as a end outcome

you have to calculate each separately then show your working result to then compile them at the end showing how each has a different error & probability value
 
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