Glacial & ice shelf calving & Climate Change news & updates/discussion

[RainbowSingularity]

it looks like calving is accelerating (as i suspected)
i wonder if it is exponentially speeding up.
what are the implications ?
global impacts commercial/financial/transport ?
what are the environmental impacts ?

it looks like melting is speeding up

as these ice shelves are broken off they will allow glaciers to speed up & calve faster
(so scientists have suggested)


https://www.livescience.com/brunt-ice-shelf-breaks-antarctica.html

Giant crack frees a massive iceberg in Antarctica
By Yasemin Saplakoglu - Staff Writer a day ago

A giant iceberg, more than 20 times the size of Manhattan, just split off from Antarctica's Brunt Ice Shelf.

 

[Dennis Tate]

The graphs that I have seen about the extent of warming in the Arctic seems to indicate that methane must be being released from the permafrost at serious levels.

Surely this significant warming in the Arctic will lead to more record breaking summers of melting on the land based Greenland Ice Pack similar to 2012 and 2019.

I am convinced that ocean levels could rise much more rapidly than we would tend to imagine.

 

[Dennis Tate]

If the following statistic is valid... this will help to explain why we have not yet seen very serious rise in ocean levels.

"At a symposium of the Union of Geodesy and geophysics, Dr. Pyyotor Shoumsky reported that the south polar ice cap was growing at a minimum rate of 293 cubic miles of ice annually. To put that number in perspective, Lake Erie contains only 109 cubic miles of water. Thus, a volume of ice forms on top of the existing ice at Antarctica each year which is almost three times the volume of water in Lake Erie!" (Expanded Discussion of The HAB Theory, Gershom Gale, Expanded Discussion on the HAB Theory.)

 

[RainbowSingularity]

If the following statistic is valid... this will help to explain why we have not yet seen very serious rise in ocean levels.

"At a symposium of the Union of Geodesy and geophysics, Dr. Pyyotor Shoumsky reported that the south polar ice cap was growing at a minimum rate of 293 cubic miles of ice annually. To put that number in perspective, Lake Erie contains only 109 cubic miles of water. Thus, a volume of ice forms on top of the existing ice at Antarctica each year which is almost three times the volume of water in Lake Erie!" (Expanded Discussion of The HAB Theory, Gershom Gale, Expanded Discussion on the HAB Theory.)

I am convinced that ocean levels could rise much more rapidly than we would tend to imagine.

the layers of propaganda & deliberate miss information & anti science media is extensive& deep & also interwoven into what would otherwise seem like ordinary middle of the road organisations.

so you can not simply go to 1 data production & extricate a value
you need to cross reference the data with other data sources to value the datas origin
then cross reference that with other studys

i have been doing this type of thing for years to check science fact from the anti-science people whom have been waging war on science for over 2 decades

quick note
i will come back
run your data
cross reference it
then research correlative balance to function
then post something to that effect
thanks for the info

quick note if its not your subject area, note exponential ice shelf to sea water contact melt rates
so new ice on top must be always happening to balance to a zero sum

glacial speed, ice shelf calving, glacial calving
has always happened & the sea level has stayed the same roughly
so this point is, regardless of the snow fall on top of the primary ice regions
there is an accelerating factor that snow fall ice creation/balance is a side issue to.
(where the game is on this one)

 

[sculptor]

It has been proposed that at end eemian the sea level rose at least 2 meters-(very quickly)--maybe more, due to an ice sheet collapse---west antarctica?

this should be expected
and
if the 400kyr cycle is accurate
expect more

 

[Dennis Tate]

the layers of propaganda & deliberate miss information & anti science media is extensive& deep & also interwoven into what would otherwise seem like ordinary middle of the road organisations.

so you can not simply go to 1 data production & extricate a value
you need to cross reference the data with other data sources to value the datas origin
then cross reference that with other studys

i have been doing this type of thing for years to check science fact from the anti-science people whom have been waging war on science for over 2 decades

quick note
i will come back
run your data
cross reference it
then research correlative balance to function
then post something to that effect
thanks for the info

quick note if its not your subject area, note exponential ice shelf to sea water contact melt rates
so new ice on top must be always happening to balance to a zero sum

glacial speed, ice shelf calving, glacial calving
has always happened & the sea level has stayed the same roughly
so this point is, regardless of the snow fall on top of the primary ice regions
there is an accelerating factor that snow fall ice creation/balance is a side issue to.
(where the game is on this one)

Yes.... this topic relates to proposals that connect with potentially hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars in government spending and private investment over the coming years and decades.

Some people do not want it to become common knowledge how much danger we may well be in in some ways from the threat of rising ocean levels.

I am just a janitor who reads a lot and I feel that I am in no position to laugh at a theory put forward by Graham Hancock. Perhaps Hancock was referring to the work of Dr. Pyyotor Shoumsky or perhaps the reverse is true... I have no idea but it is astonishing how silent the internet seems to be on this topic.

"Let us consider Antarctica for a moment.
We have already seen that it is big. It has a land area of 5.5
million square miles, and is presently covered by something in excess
of seven million cubic miles of ice weighing an estimated 19
quadrillion tons (19 followed by 15 zeros). What worries the
theorists of earth-crust displacement is that this vast ice-cap is
remorselessly increasing in size and weight:'at the rate of 293 cubic
miles of ice each year--almost as much as if Lake Ontario were frozen
solidly annually and added to it.(Graham Hancock, Fingerprints of
the Gods, page 480).

I listened to a documentary last year that did a good job of summarizing why total and free disclosure of all relevant information on many important topics may not be exactly what the world has at this time.

Why Big Oil Conquered the World

 

[Dennis Tate]

It has been proposed that at end eemian the sea level rose at least 2 meters-(very quickly)--maybe more, due to an ice sheet collapse---west antarctica?

this should be expected
and
if the 400kyr cycle is accurate
expect more

I remember reading a statistic by Dr. James Hanson that the last time that atmospheric temperatures rose by about three degrees, ocean levels rose something like twenty five meters over about four centuries.

This article seems to be helpful.

Peer-Reviewed Study Confirms Antarctica Has Not Warmed in Last Seven Decades

Notice especially the reply by Scottar Brooke February 28, 2021 At 12:58 am

 

[RainbowSingularity]

i do not wish to talk about oil & gas companies
i am not paid to study or discuss this stuff(or any stuff)

I remember reading a statistic by Dr. James Hanson that the last time that atmospheric temperatures rose by about three degrees, ocean levels rose something like twenty five meters over about four centuries.

west antarctic + Greenland = 10 meters(& there is a lot more than just that, but those have been listed as primary initial indicators of the driving 1st rise)
10 meters is unsustainable for modern human civilization

the question is how soon

(the science area)currently looking at ice shelf exponential melt rates
now sea water which is warming, is flowing faster underneath it
this may be accelerating the shelf calving in an exponential speed

it appears the oceans have absorbed a great deal of heat from the atmosphere so the atmospheric heating may be secondary to ocean warming


How close is the West Antarctic ice sheet to a ‘tipping point’?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-close-is-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-to-a-tipping-point

Between its east and west ice sheets and its peninsula, Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by around 60m.

The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is a relatively small part, containing an amount of ice equivalent to 3.3m of sea level rise. Yet, most of it sits in a precarious position and is considered “theoretically unstable”.

The most pressing aspect of this uncertainty is understanding whether instability thresholds of ice have been crossed, whether the retreat we are now measuring is destined to continue, and whether ice that appears unchanging today will remain that way in the future.


The latest research says that the threshold for irreversible loss of the WAIS likely lies between 1.5C and 2C of global average warming above pre-industrial levels. With warming already at around 1.1C and the Paris Agreement aiming to limit warming to 1.5C or “well-below 2C”, the margins for avoiding this threshold are fine indeed.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...3_1615630165_2849dd46f2d51af8556aaf63a61f4619

Published June 14, 2018
• 9 min read
Scientists have discovered that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet underwent a major retreat between 10,000 and 12,000 years ago, at a time when the world was actually cooler than it is today. The collapse happened at the close of the last Ice Age, and it left the ice sheet 135,000 square miles smaller than it is today – a difference nearly as large as the state of Montana.

“That the ice sheet could retreat beyond where it is today, in a climate that was likely quite a bit colder than today, points to extraordinary sensitivity,” says Robert DeConto, a glaciologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who was not involved in the research.

>>> West Antarctic Ice Sheet

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/antarctica-2/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-2/west-antarctic-ice-sheet/

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is, in places, over 2000 m thick, with the geological floor well below sea level. The marine basins are variable, with both rough mountainous terrain and flat, deep oceanic basins[2], with a maximum depth of 2555 m below present sea level.


During past interglacials, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been completely removed[3], which is one of the arguments supporting a Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. During past glacials, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf edge[4-6], drained by numerous ice streams[7, 8], such as the Pine Island and Thwaites ice streams, which flow out into the Amundsen Sea. In the four-panel figure opposite, you can see these two ice streams clearly. They are grounded below sea level and drain a large proportion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

 

[RainbowSingularity]

part of the issue of the ice shelf melting and raising sea levels by 3.3 meters is the additional melting it will cause as it melts
melting other ice sheets
so the 3.3 meters also goes for other ice sheets
rough calculation by several climate scientists studying it suggest around 5 meters Greenland 5 meters Antarctica
based on the 2 Degrees C' threshold

however
it appears that with global ocean warming
the climate temp may be secondary to sea temps
which is quite a game changer

unfortunately a lot of people including leaders whos job it is to solve these issues and manage them have been conditioned to throw their hands up & run away & change the subject or play bully victimization distraction games

 

[sculptor]

Much of the west Antarctic ice sheet is a marine ice sheet.

 

[Dennis Tate]

Much of the west Antarctic ice sheet is a marine ice sheet.

Wow!!!!

I saw an image related to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet about a decade or so ago that gave me the impression that it was rather vulnerable to rapid cracking and sliding into the ocean.

For example... what would happen to the WAIS if it were to be hit by a tsunami.... or an earthquake under it????

Collapse Of Antarctic Ice Sheet Would Likely Put Washington, D.C. Largely Underwater

 

[sculptor]

I saw an image related to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet about a decade or so ago that gave me the impression that it was rather vulnerable to rapid cracking and sliding into the ocean.

For example... what would happen to the WAIS if it were to be hit by a tsunami.... or an earthquake under it?

The antarctic archipelago lies close to the center of the antarctic plate, so earthquake seems unlikely.

A tsunami?
Perhaps from the plate boundary with the pacific plate?

Anyway
One should expect sea level rise without our help. It was warmer than the Holocene during the last(eemian) interglacial by 2 degrees C and the whole of the greenland ice sheet did not melt.
however, if
The 400kyr cycle repeats, then we may well see conditions much like during Marine isotope stage 11(@ 400kyrs ago), wherein it was much warmer for much longer than this current interglacial(so far).
During that time, the arctic ice and arctic desert were gone and the shores of the arctic ocean were forested.
And, our ancestors spread from south africa to the arctic ocean, and seemed to be doing quite well.

A warmer climate is a more equable climate----most warming will be in the higher latitudes both north and south.
so we give up some low-lying coastal areas but gain the use of much of the far north. (? and, maybe Antarctica?)

Perhaps, Washington DC will improve for the flooding?
If you build on a floodplain, expect flooding.

...................................................
If the ice melts, would the antarctic archipelago still be considered a continent?

 

[RainbowSingularity]

Perhaps, Washington DC will improve for the flooding?
If you build on a floodplain, expect flooding.

the scientists doing the work backed by physicists suggest around total 10 meter sea level rise
that increase will put the largest citys under water.

"flood plains" inland may become inundated
however coastal main citys will be un workable
which is a large amount of infrastructure to move.
moving it should already be under planning to create & start building now
the moving time will be considerable along with the building stage.

managing this in a manner that allows business to continue operating at the current required global capacity requires action.

climate change refugees will be considerable.
hence the need for country's to invest in building up their navy's to manage large populations on the water moving around.

 

[Dennis Tate]

the scientists doing the work backed by physicists suggest around total 10 meter sea level rise
that increase will put the largest citys under water.

"flood plains" inland may become inundated
however coastal main citys will be un workable
which is a large amount of infrastructure to move.
moving it should already be under planning to create & start building now
the moving time will be considerable along with the building stage.

managing this in a manner that allows business to continue operating at the current required global capacity requires action.

climate change refugees will be considerable.
hence the need for country's to invest in building up their navy's to manage large populations on the water moving around.

Or.... if we look at monetary theory differently we could finance turning deserts green on a scale that would put a comparable amount of
H2O into deserts......
as is melting off the land based ice sheets or the world's glaciers each decade.

We have the technology already... what is missing is understanding how to finance doing this.

Sorek Desalination Plant

It is good to know that President Lincoln did save USA taxpayers four billion dollars in interest payments.

In 1972, the United States Treasury Department was asked to compute the amount of interest that would have been paid if that 400 million dollars would have been borrowed at interest instead of being issued by Abraham Lincoln. They did some computations, and a few weeks later, the United States Treasury Department said the United States Government saved 4 billion dollars in interest because Lincoln had created his own money. So you can about imagine how much the Government has paid and how much we owe solely on the basis of interest." (Melvin Sickler, Lincoln, Kennedy)

 

[RainbowSingularity]

The antarctic archipelago lies close to the center of the antarctic plate, so earthquake seems unlikely.

actually
if you looked into the Geo Science you would see that a regular earth quake zone where 3 different plates meet
sits fairly close

South Sandwich Islands region
is a hot spot for earth quakes
if a shallow quake were to strike there up less than 5kms deep & be above a 7.5
it would almost certainly create a tsunami that "may" or may not break ice sheets(we are talking about the thin ice sheets that act as cooling plates & that hold land temperature down & keep glaciers frozen & slow moving.)
all dependent on the direction of force & the direction of the wave, the sea floor etc etc

it is certainly not in the impossible to expect probability.
the probability of 7.0 is fairly high
but i suspect it would need to also be shallow(above 5ms depth) & be above 7.5

additionally
South Shetland Islands
not entirely uncommon
a lot closer to
a large quake there would have big potential impact

Or.... if we look at monetary theory differently we could finance turning deserts green on a scale that would put a comparable amount of
H2O into deserts......
as is melting off the land based ice sheets or the world's glaciers each decade.

We have the technology already... what is missing is understanding how to finance doing this.

sea-weed mussels & shrimps grow in salt water(& flamingos for christmass dinner)
grass is only useful for money if it gives low cost investment like grass for grazing animals.
otherwise the entire grass market is domestic disposable lawn care/make-up

carbon sinking with grass ?
living plants need water
desertification is primarily the loss of water via rain.
Rain brings its own nutrients once in sufficient amounts
contrasted to top soil requirements which tend to be neutralized by the lack of water
(sterilization by dehydration making any composite compound unable to sustain growth)
some exceptions exist with ocean land geography where sea mist rolls in and drops water on to the sand
even 500 year old cactus needs some form of moisture occasionally
recent botanical field research has speculated probable plants to be not uncommonly several hundred years old.
as amazing as these may be & at some time in the future offer some insights to long life span food crops
there is no shortage of food in the world
just a shortage of peace & a shortage of people willing to sell that food at reasonable prices to those who can barely afford to pay for it at cost price.

i digress

 

[RainbowSingularity]

this is interesting
https://news.sky.com/story/melting-...-rise-up-to-18-metres-scientists-say-12262567

it links to some other study's which concerned when the major land masses were covered in ice and how sea level rise rose at those speed as the bulk of te land that had ice on it melted.

it all a bit complicated

my short speed read of the data and looking at the current sea level rise
there is no data on the rate of sea level rise from where we are currently to where all ice melts

generically speaking the current rate of sea level rise has no comparison at all to their historic records as the ice is land mass ice age ice
not the current ice that we have left which if it all melts will increase sea level by 60 meters

which would be a very different world

modern society simply can not sustain the current population on that level of sea level rise

 

[RainbowSingularity]

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

my guess is we are now in the fast melt period of previous end melt processes where the melt acceleration is yet to by figured out how or what created it.
what we do know is earth was not as warm back then and the sea was not as warm.

so we are heading into the fast melt period at a potentially exponential on the exponential

 

[RainbowSingularity]

new news update
new study

https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/newsroom/cq_img/news/2019/11/c191125eng_01.jpg

World's glaciers melting at a faster pace

The world's glaciers are melting at an accelerating rate, according to a comprehensive new study.

Jonathan Amos
Science correspondent
@BBCAmos

The researchers found them to have lost almost 270 billion tonnes of ice a year over the opening two decades of the 21st Century.