Tantulus said:
But to suggest inserting a number of genes, which are joining a family of thousands of genes that cooperate to bring about a carrot, given that all genes are in the same language, and that the intended changes are being guided by a designer, alters the genome to a large degree, if not desired, doesn’t make sense.
In the first place, altering the genome by a large degree is not the problem - the problem is the kinds of consequences possible from even small changes of such an unfamiliar nature in such explosively influential areas.
In the second, your overstatement of the knowledge and expertise and "control" of the "designer" is so dramatic, so mind-boggling, as to reveal a fundamental problem of worldview that I believe to be the central issue here: these guys do not know what they are doing, and they do not realize the nature or the scope of what could go wrong. They lack the requisite humility, and they are playing with dynamite. They don't even have a reasonable description and comprehension of the simple genome involved in the multicellular being they are modifying (they only got an example of the thing sequenced, the first step, a couple of years ago - if that) - let alone the roles in the organism, and not even approaching what they would have to know about the environment they were releasing it into.
tantalus said:
Clearly the outcome isn’t wholly unpredictable, if that were the case, the value of the technique would be limited in the first place.
The outcome in the real world - deployed - is unpredictable in brand new ways, some of which are not (yet) known at all, some of which are merely grossly underestimated.
And genes can reproduce, spread. You can't take them back, necessarily, if you find you've made a mistake.
Like this:
tantulus said:
but it is hyperbole to state that an entire crop on a continental scale could be at risk.
No, it isn't. Lower risk similar situations have in the past caused continent wide crop failures and near misses - grapes in Europe, potatoes in Ireland, corn in the US (a fungal blight specializing in a single type of hybridization in IIRC 1973 was only prevented from taking out 2/3 of North American maize by quick and lucky emergency action). Landscape scale genetic uniformity in a species creates a serious risk of massive, even extinction level kill - this is well known to any ecological biologist. And these modified crops have no evolutionary experience handling whatever vulnerabilities have been created.
tantulus said:
Could this be used as evidence that mankind shouldn’t eat potatoes, surely not, yet clearly there are concerns regarding the reliance on such a monopoly. Poor applications of GM isn’t an argument against it as a whole.
No, there are other arguments against eating GM stuff. The problems with GM are numerous and varied, and have their own arguments. This one is against relying on them on the scale currently being advanced by the profiters from them, because of the ecological vulnerability created by genetic uniformity. There are other arguments against relying on them on such a scale, as well.
When the "poor" applications of GM encompass the vast majority of real world application of GM, as now, it can be difficult to distinguish arguments against poor applications from arguments against GM as a whole. But honest and careful reading and posting should keep things straight.
tantulus said:
Intuitive pronouncements of unnatural and alien don’t directly transfer into real danger.
That was a most revealing response to this:
The threat with the salmon is predictable, trackable, measurable, known, sharply limited to salmon initially; compare with the threats from jumping herbicide sequestering bacterial genes framed in auxiliary abetters from unrelated plants and inserted into insect and fungus connected beans and grasses planted across a continent, say - for human and animal consumption. Hello?
Notice that the words "unnatural" and "alien" did not appear, nor is the post based on intuition - the fact that the salmon modifications do not share many of the more problematic aspects of other GM modifications is not an "intuitive" claim, but an observation of (among others) the details of glysphosphate-resistant GM crops listed.
The repeated attempts to frame the debate as between ignorant "intuition" irrationally fearful of anything "unnatural", and expert, controlled, knowledgeable science dealing competently with the real world, are propaganda - marketing.
tantulus said:
Like the way most conventional crops have been breed from wild species and then moved around the globe.
Only orders of magnitude greater in risk - it's not only a new continent, for this stuff, but a new planet. The Irish can give you the details on what can happen with the comparatively small risk of moving a standard bred plant.
It seems appropiate for me to mention here that a problem with a single GM variety does not constitue a problem with all GM crops.
A bad problem with a single GM crop, unpredicted (like the release of glysphosphate compounds directly into the human intestines) or simply ignored (like the Bt resistance currently being bred into pests by Monsanto), indicates problems with the GM techniques involved, problems with the corporate dominance of the development and deployment of these bits of engineering, and problems with the hubris of narrow technological expertise generally.
tantulus said:
"In a real world ecosystem, that would take a century or more."
Then you are simply taking an extreme stance in my opinion, requiring unreasonable guarantees that if applied to other applications of risk assessment would prevent humanity from doing practically anything.
You were the one specifying what guarantees you found reasonable. I merely pointed out what it would take to get them, in time and effort, with technology like the genetic modifications we are seeing developed.