Fun World Events Predictions

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Eluminate

Registered Senior Member
Cough cough; I ll start it out :D
1. I predict that Bush wins the election.
2. Haiti is still gonna be in civil war going into the next year.
3. Israels' Wall will continue being built
4. Iran will have a nuclear accident before the year is over.
5. So will north korea.
6. Osama Bin Laden will be caught a month or two before the elections.
7. He will be electricuted in a state of texas
8. The dam in the three river region in southern china will break apart
in approximately 2006-2008 due to faulty construction and wreak masive havoc & death upon the populous.
9. Syria will be forced to leave Lebanon.
10. US will get a surplus in september 2007-2012 december
11. Milosovic will be aquited
12. A republican will win the election after Bush as well
13. A rebel war like chechnya will break out in north western china, former sianking.
14. Taiwan will repeal the invasion attempt by Chineese
15. They will adopt the referendum and declare themselves independant of mainland China 2004-2005 december
16. Commerce Bank (CBH) will go bust in 2006-2007
 
Eluminate said:
14. Taiwan will repeal the invasion attempt by Chineese
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Are you serious? there is like... two billion people in china. They could arm them with wet dishrags and still invade successfuly. But they wont need to because they have stoped using cheap AK nock offs and developed a real chinese infantry assault rifle that looks really scary. Not to mention that Bush supports Chinese control of Taiwan!
 
He does? I thought Bush was for the free world and democracy? But I read the Chinese navy was pretty wimpish at the moment, though theyll likely use all those nice export dollars to beef it up. Probably buy stuff from europe, or make it themselves.
 
The Chinese navy is developing at a fast pace, now obviously the US is VASTLY superior to that of China, eventually a war in the Straights will not be so prim and pretty for the US. The Chinese have developed her own Aegis class ships, and should put many in service. China lacks a true amphibious assault capability now, but it should improve it within the decade. The greatest threat that China poses to Taiwan today is her IRBM's. The question that must be posed is whether the US is actually wiling to support Taiwan militarily for much longer, my answer is no. The US is going to depend on China too much economically to lose that over Taiwan. Officially the US supports the one China policy, but I don't know how much political capital the US is wiling to put in this in the near future. Taiwan if invaded would not repel a Chinese invasion without American assistance.
 
you are forgeting, first the flood accident will happen in the three river region the botched invasion and the rebelization in sianking will occur in close proximity to one another. This is my logic.

Also the real chinese assault rifle is a knockoff there has been a resent suit by the Russian govt on copyright infringement..... They still arm em with ak knock offs...
 
yeah even if taiwan can hold off any chinese fleet, china is free to use nukes because they and even the world considers taiwan part of china, not a sovereign nation. They have no hope except for PRC reforms.
 
I think that Taiwan will eventually give in to China, she will monopolize Taiwanese trade, and already Taiwan is getting dependant on China. A simple embargo of Chinese goods to the Island, and seizing all Taiwanese assests on the mainland will become a very real prospect. China's guns are not those of the western sort.
 
actually undicided the drift is the other way around the president that taiwan has now is likely to loose the next elections to one who promised to carry out referendum which this one didn't.

I doubt china would nuke taiwan in order to take it.

But yes ecconomic pains are recognizeble good point but I they aren't likely to happen I think. You gotta look at these predictions as a whole if the 3 events happen as I think they will would be fairly painful.
 
actually undicided the drift is the other way around the president that taiwan has now is likely to loose the next elections to one who promised to carry out referendum which this one didn't.


So you are saying that the Taiwanese are wiling to separate from China? I very highly doubt that, the Taiwanese know that China will attack. How China will do it is questionable. My theory is that the Chinese will blockade the country, starving it into submission, if that doesn't work, all hell breaks loose.

I doubt china would nuke taiwan in order to take it.


As do I initially, China will not want to escalate tensions to the point of nuclear attack, but it is a very real threat. Thus I don't think the Taiwanese are going to separate.

But yes ecconomic pains are recognizeble good point but I they aren't likely to happen I think.


They are more then likely to happen, a combined Chinese sanction with a Chinese blockade of the straight is a potent offence indeed. China is only getting stronger and stronger every year, and eventually it will be able to challenge the USN in the straights. By that time the Americans have to question whether or not they will want to go tête-à-tête with the Chinese. I predict that Taiwan will eventually re-integrate into the mainland within the next 10 years.
 
Lets just say that the world is going to blow up anytime soon, that or the human race will destroy its self :D
 
that isn't one of my predictions....

Would be kinda cool to have chineese mount an amphibious invasion and be totally repulsed that would be so reputation painful .
 
It wouldn't be repulsed; the Chinese strength is in numbers. The Chinese strategy is to saturate the Taiwanese defenses until the Taiwanese cannot defend itself. For instance China has 3000 fighter jets, most of then old F-6's but if you put 100 up in the air at one time, and have 20 J-11's with BVR capability the Taiwanese will be hard pressed to defend itself. Simple China will win by numbers...
 
A carrier battle group could still theoretically lose against a Chinese force. It's not very hard to do, the impression given is that the US carrier battle groups can destroy the entire Chinese offensive and that is ludicrous at best. Simply put the Chinese will employ the same strategy of saturation against any American force. China has hundreds of patrol boats, and small frigates, if they attack the carrier at the same time with their old SS-N-2 missiles the carrier will stand no chance. Let's say for instance the Chinese launch 60 missiles against the carrier, and targeted only against the carrier. The Aegis class ships would not be able to destroy all these missiles. This was Soviet policy as well; the carrier in the straights is not safe against a Chinese attack. Also you cannot negate the incorporation of supersonic, sea-skimming missiles that the Chinese employ on her Russian ships, and on SSM bases on the mainland. Simply put the US could theorically lose a carrier, 5000 men, and about $5 billion goners. There is no way the battle group can defend against the sheer numbers of aircraft and missiles put against them, in such a small space. Remember that the carriers in the 1997 crisis never went in the straights.

CVBG in the Formosa strait. Problem solved.

This is awfully ignorant for a former navy cadet, which shows that the USN doesn't train it's men well enough. :( I expected much better...

Some years back, while the Taiwan Strait imbroglio almost came to a shooting war, the US weighed its option whether if it interfered in the unfinished Chinese Civil War, what would be its own chance of an ‘easy’ victory. Independently, both the US Army and Navy conducted computer-simulated war involving a US-China War fought in the Strait.

In both these simulations, the conclusions were the US lost.
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That was 7 years ago when China was even weaker then she is today. Oh well at least I am under no illusions.
 
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Taiwan will go the way of Hong Kong....and merge with China with promises of free elections and democracy. The Chinese will say, teach us how the democracy works by merging in so that they can learn....and Taiwan will get suckered in by 2010.
 
Undecided said:
A carrier battle group could still theoretically lose against a Chinese force.
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Ugh, behind that comment is the same false logic you try to apply to politics and that's exactly why it makes you look so utterly out of touch with reality. Like the saying goes, "socialism works... in theory."

That was 7 years ago when China was even weaker then she is today. Oh well at least I am under no illusions.
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Link to source.

Also, be careful using the exercises as an example. They are, after all, training evolutions and are very scripted and controlled so as to make it most advantageous to training. Often ships and subs will have severe restrictions on their ability in order to train the opposition or the rest of the group for a variety of situations. In most cases, over the course of a full exercise, every ship will be sunk or mission-killed at one point or another.

If China were to make a major conventional play against a battlegroup, even an unsuspecting one, they would, in no uncertain terms, get wrecked. A CVBG is a huge concentration of maritime firepower built to do little more than break stuff out at sea and project power ashore. It'd probably take the sum total of China's projectable military might to stand a reasonable chance of getting through to the carrier itself, and that's only if the carrier chooses to offer them battle. Finding the CVBG out at sea would be the first step, and a daunting one at that.

Also keep in mind that carriers are ships of war, and as such one or two missiles isn't going to do it. It'll take a couple to mission-kill it, let alone sink one. It's also got a crew of around 5000 or so, and in wartime only about 500 of them are absolutely necessary to keep the carrier conducting full-on flight operations. The rest of them are there to patch holes and fight fires. After that, they can fix more than half the gear onboard with little or no outside support. The Navy learned the damage control lesson well in WWII (just look at what happened with the Yamato) and you'd better beleive it was in mind when they laid down the keels of modern ships.

Sufficed to say, US carriers aren't invulnerable but there's no way in hell China can harm one and that's my expert (really) opinion.
 
Ugh, behind that comment is the same false logic you try to apply to politics and that's exactly why it makes you look so utterly out of touch with reality.

Again why must u resort to an ad hom attack? Do you think this validates ur argument in any way? My political logic is neither here or there, I am a cynic at heart. I don't believe anyone has non-bias reasons for doing anything. I criticize everyone the best I can, my logic is usually supported by facts and sources. It is you that is quite amusing to listen to, because you state positions without ANY reason, or facts to support them. Or u usually misinterpret the information presented, and constantly mis-read others posts.

Like the saying goes, "socialism works... in theory."

Socialism works, communism works in theory.

Link to source.

http://pakistanidefence.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=23036

A very good article that he posted.

Also, be careful using the exercises as an example. They are, after all, training evolutions and are very scripted and controlled so as to make it most advantageous to training.

That was not a training simulation, that was to discern whether the US could win against the Chinese. The US does these simulations all the time, against Iraq, and I bet against NK as well. The US lost, and I am confident that if China plays her cards right the US will lose.

If China were to make a major conventional play against a battlegroup, even an unsuspecting one, they would, in no uncertain terms, get wrecked.

And that's where you always get the premise wrong; you always, ALWAYS assume that the world is like the US in almost every respect. The Chinese are not going to float a armada against the US, she knows she would lose. The American carrier battle group would be hard pressed to defeat fishing boat sized SSM carriers with SS-N-2's on board. I am amazed that you don't know this, I mean u worked for the navy (was it on a freighter away from the action?) Because your logic is obviously ignorant of Chinese plans.

A CVBG is a huge concentration of maritime firepower built to do little more than break stuff out at sea and project power ashore. It'd probably take the sum total of China's projectable military might to stand a reasonable chance of getting through to the carrier itself,

I have no idea why you would say that, China isn't going to destroy the entire group. She just wants to get that carrier. Those boats are not going to go out into the strait, are you mad so they can be sitting ducks for the American F-18's? The whole idea is to saturate the American forces, and that can be very easily accomplished.

and that's only if the carrier chooses to offer them battle. Finding the CVBG out at sea would be the first step, and a daunting one at that.

Right... you don't know where Taiwan is do you?

A reference for you...

The group would not be in the ocean it will be constrained into the strait.

Also keep in mind that carriers are ships of war, and as such one or two missiles isn't going to do it.

But I think 25 Silkworms can do much damage don't u?

The Navy learned the damage control lesson well in WWII (just look at what happened with the Yamato) and you'd better beleive it was in mind when they laid down the keels of modern ships.

It did take a lot of air power to get rid of the Yamato, but remember Midway? The carriers on their decks full of fuel, and arms, and aircraft are HIGHLY flammable (what was the carrier that almost burned to a crisp during the Vietnam war because of a weapons release on deck? USS Forestall?) And when you have a war situation where u are being attacked by 100 J-6's you are going to have a lot of activity on deck. If you have a Silkworm land in the right place...

Sufficed to say, US carriers aren't invulnerable but there's no way in hell China can harm one and that's my expert (really) opinion.

I don't think ur an expert, as shown. I think though that you are right that it would be VERY hard to pull this off. But it is not impossible.
 
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1. I predict that Bush wins the election.
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Agree. I'll go on to say, he'll be impeached his second term.

2. Haiti is still gonna be in civil war going into the next year.
3. Israels' Wall will continue being built
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Agreed.

4. Iran will have a nuclear accident before the year is over.
5. So will north korea.
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Disagree. Can't predict this for sure, it's like saying a volcano will erupt just outside my door twenty days and three hours from now.

6. Osama Bin Laden will be caught a month or two before the elections.
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Possibly. Bush was low enough to allow him to destroy the World Trade Center, why he wouldn't be low enough to wait for the right time for capture is beyond me. Maybe Bush will shoot bin Laden himself with a magnum using bullets melted down from the WTC rubble whilst wearing a cowboy hat and spurs. Gee, that might help his campaign out.
 
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