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Drake/fermi
- Thread starter blueshift
- Start date
Being relatively uneducated I have to ask, “What is the Fermi Paradox? I am aware of Drake’s equation Where Drake tries through a mathematical statement to give meaning to the possibility of life. Though the site is somewhat simplistic, I will post a link allowing you to plug in what numbers you think appropriate and it will do the calculations for you based upon what you think are the values.
http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html
http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html
Dear Wet1,
You may view the following Website for some short obsevations.
http://www.wco.com/~anrwlias/fermi_paradox/introduction.htm
FYI, Enrico Fermi was born in Rome, 1901. He is best known for his
contributions to nuclear physics and the development of the quantum
theory. In 1938 he won the Noble Peace Prize for Physics. He
produced the first nuclear chain reaction at the University of Chicago
in 1942, and worked on the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos
during WWII. He was a firm believer in extra-terrestrials..
Thank-you for your reply, and post again. Let me know what you
think.
-blueshift
You may view the following Website for some short obsevations.
http://www.wco.com/~anrwlias/fermi_paradox/introduction.htm
FYI, Enrico Fermi was born in Rome, 1901. He is best known for his
contributions to nuclear physics and the development of the quantum
theory. In 1938 he won the Noble Peace Prize for Physics. He
produced the first nuclear chain reaction at the University of Chicago
in 1942, and worked on the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos
during WWII. He was a firm believer in extra-terrestrials..
Thank-you for your reply, and post again. Let me know what you
think.
-blueshift
Rambling thoughts
Thanx for an excellent link for carrying through the background on your question. I found it most illumnating. After reading it I would say that there are several of the hypothesis that appeal to me.
1) That required elements for life (as we know it) can not be made in sufficient quantify to allow life an early start. It must wait the forming of elements such as carbon and iron in stars and then must be able to gather sufficient material after novae occur. With stars lifetimes being on the order of millions/billions of years this would lend support to life forming later rather than sooner. Also given the distance over, which such material would have to travel to arrive at a location that is useful. And how much would be needed to make a suitable base of raw material for formation of any world just adds more time and delay.
2) Given the immense distances involved with space it could not be often that a star traveling species arrived at the ability to treat these distances as though one could catch the next bus to a neighboring galaxy. We’re still trying to establish that concisely it is even possible and as such have only speculation to produce for years and years of wanting it so.
3) As a last comment, it would seem likely that not all life is intelligent. While we have only or own biosphere to go by. (actual physical proof), we can see that no other species has a demonstrable desire to leave the planet. So because we look to the stars and space as the next frontier, we are alone in doing so on our own planet. I can not believe that it would also be a driving force for all other intelligence to leave theirs through the same need to explore, when their own biosphere should supply all that was needed for their own particular life form.
After rereading this post I find that I totally missed the posting question. Twelve years is not a long time when looking at space theories. Look how long it took Galieo to get his theory recognised and not have the church breathing down his back. (it was not sufficent to just to prove his theory) It was only after his death that his theories were published! I will come down on the side that we will still be right were we are now.
Thanx for an excellent link for carrying through the background on your question. I found it most illumnating. After reading it I would say that there are several of the hypothesis that appeal to me.
1) That required elements for life (as we know it) can not be made in sufficient quantify to allow life an early start. It must wait the forming of elements such as carbon and iron in stars and then must be able to gather sufficient material after novae occur. With stars lifetimes being on the order of millions/billions of years this would lend support to life forming later rather than sooner. Also given the distance over, which such material would have to travel to arrive at a location that is useful. And how much would be needed to make a suitable base of raw material for formation of any world just adds more time and delay.
2) Given the immense distances involved with space it could not be often that a star traveling species arrived at the ability to treat these distances as though one could catch the next bus to a neighboring galaxy. We’re still trying to establish that concisely it is even possible and as such have only speculation to produce for years and years of wanting it so.
3) As a last comment, it would seem likely that not all life is intelligent. While we have only or own biosphere to go by. (actual physical proof), we can see that no other species has a demonstrable desire to leave the planet. So because we look to the stars and space as the next frontier, we are alone in doing so on our own planet. I can not believe that it would also be a driving force for all other intelligence to leave theirs through the same need to explore, when their own biosphere should supply all that was needed for their own particular life form.
After rereading this post I find that I totally missed the posting question. Twelve years is not a long time when looking at space theories. Look how long it took Galieo to get his theory recognised and not have the church breathing down his back. (it was not sufficent to just to prove his theory) It was only after his death that his theories were published! I will come down on the side that we will still be right were we are now.
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Dear Wet1,
Thanks for your reply, and your points are well taken. However we are speaking
of 'communicating' civilizations, not 'traveling' civilizations.
Please consider the following, as I ran my own numbers through Drake's Equation.
Where R=x
N*= 200 billion; fp= 20%; ne= 3; fl= 50%; fi= 20%; fc= 20%; fL= 1/10,000,000
or 1000 years. Then x= 240.
We now have at least 240 planets with the 'will' and 'ability' to 'communicate'
through interstellar space. I think you would agree that these figures are
somewhat conservative. Also this is just in the Milky Way, and presumed that
all planets began their life evolution at the exact same time as Earth. Not perhaps,
10,0000 years prior, fleeting in universe time.
I'm beginning to lean toward the "Cosmic Zoo" Theory. Perhaps something
happened in our early (very early) years that prohibits us from realizing that
communication. Perhaps we have become 'isolated' for some reason or reasons.
The '12 years' was arbritrary based on the Mayan prediction of the next 'cycle'
beginning 24 December 2012, although others put it at 2135.
I guess the sad part about it would be not to achieve that communication
with our counterparts if they are there.
And worst yet, if they are not.
Thanks again for your reply. As a special gift I'm sending you
the following URL which I hope you'll find interesting.
http://oposite.stsci.edu./pubinfo/gif/NCG654a.gif
Sincerely,
-blueshift
Thanks for your reply, and your points are well taken. However we are speaking
of 'communicating' civilizations, not 'traveling' civilizations.
Please consider the following, as I ran my own numbers through Drake's Equation.
Where R=x
N*= 200 billion; fp= 20%; ne= 3; fl= 50%; fi= 20%; fc= 20%; fL= 1/10,000,000
or 1000 years. Then x= 240.
We now have at least 240 planets with the 'will' and 'ability' to 'communicate'
through interstellar space. I think you would agree that these figures are
somewhat conservative. Also this is just in the Milky Way, and presumed that
all planets began their life evolution at the exact same time as Earth. Not perhaps,
10,0000 years prior, fleeting in universe time.
I'm beginning to lean toward the "Cosmic Zoo" Theory. Perhaps something
happened in our early (very early) years that prohibits us from realizing that
communication. Perhaps we have become 'isolated' for some reason or reasons.
The '12 years' was arbritrary based on the Mayan prediction of the next 'cycle'
beginning 24 December 2012, although others put it at 2135.
I guess the sad part about it would be not to achieve that communication
with our counterparts if they are there.
And worst yet, if they are not.
Thanks again for your reply. As a special gift I'm sending you
the following URL which I hope you'll find interesting.
http://oposite.stsci.edu./pubinfo/gif/NCG654a.gif
Sincerely,
-blueshift
Hello, any one home?
In talking communications, a lot of the numbers thrown around are useless. In that the Drake equation requires you to speculate (we have no idea as to how many planets around other star systems could develop or support life. Much less intelligent life)
Also is the statement that is bandied about that two communicating civilizations would have to be at near the same level of technological development in order to communicate. Provided both use the same means and can recognize that indeed there is someone calling out hello.
Interesting it is that you use the Mayan calendar date as the terminal for the event of such contact. Only their calendar cycles of (what is it? 12000 years?) predict that some major calamity should happen around the end of that cycle. (I could certainly be wrong about the span, as it’s been a while since I visited any Mayan sites.) Or maybe I should say that their beliefs and not a prediction by the calendar to be more accurate.
We have only been on the air, so to say , for a very short time. In the cosmic scale of time, not even enough to air the first commercial from our sponsor. I fear the jury will be out on this one for an exceedingly long time. Perhaps longer than we have patience for or remaining lifespan as a species to wait.
ps Dear me, after reading this post I find that the title could very well be taken for something I didn't mean. I thought I'd add this note rather than change it. It was in no way meant to reflect anything other than someone knocking at the door.
In talking communications, a lot of the numbers thrown around are useless. In that the Drake equation requires you to speculate (we have no idea as to how many planets around other star systems could develop or support life. Much less intelligent life)
Also is the statement that is bandied about that two communicating civilizations would have to be at near the same level of technological development in order to communicate. Provided both use the same means and can recognize that indeed there is someone calling out hello.
Interesting it is that you use the Mayan calendar date as the terminal for the event of such contact. Only their calendar cycles of (what is it? 12000 years?) predict that some major calamity should happen around the end of that cycle. (I could certainly be wrong about the span, as it’s been a while since I visited any Mayan sites.) Or maybe I should say that their beliefs and not a prediction by the calendar to be more accurate.
We have only been on the air, so to say , for a very short time. In the cosmic scale of time, not even enough to air the first commercial from our sponsor. I fear the jury will be out on this one for an exceedingly long time. Perhaps longer than we have patience for or remaining lifespan as a species to wait.
ps Dear me, after reading this post I find that the title could very well be taken for something I didn't mean. I thought I'd add this note rather than change it. It was in no way meant to reflect anything other than someone knocking at the door.
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….and after further thought.
There is no way that we can say we will contact or be contacted by another civilization. It could very well be that we wouldn’t talk on the same frequency. SETI has been looking for a long time in the noisiest band of all. That of hydrogen. It would seem to me that if you wanted to communicate that you wouldn’t want noise to interfere with your signal. And we are talking intelligently directed communication. I would think it would be better to communicate with say neutrinos. Less noise, signal penetrates almost anything with very little interference. (which means that your signal would go a long way before dissipating). But here we are and can only detect left revolving neutrinos. Which the sun does copiously emit. One out of three ain’t good. And who’s to say that even this example could be anywhere near a stab at what might be used? I hope these disjointed thoughts make sense.
There is no way that we can say we will contact or be contacted by another civilization. It could very well be that we wouldn’t talk on the same frequency. SETI has been looking for a long time in the noisiest band of all. That of hydrogen. It would seem to me that if you wanted to communicate that you wouldn’t want noise to interfere with your signal. And we are talking intelligently directed communication. I would think it would be better to communicate with say neutrinos. Less noise, signal penetrates almost anything with very little interference. (which means that your signal would go a long way before dissipating). But here we are and can only detect left revolving neutrinos. Which the sun does copiously emit. One out of three ain’t good. And who’s to say that even this example could be anywhere near a stab at what might be used? I hope these disjointed thoughts make sense.
Dear wet1,
Once again you are on point in that no one at this time has enough information
for an accurate answer.
The question was speculative, hence the "How do you think....?"
All good science begins with a theory. In this case the presumption must be,
the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
I also agree 100% with your byline:
"We are all made of star stuff"
Sincerely,
-blueshift
PS Your post on the "Stickman" is fascinating.
Once again you are on point in that no one at this time has enough information
for an accurate answer.
The question was speculative, hence the "How do you think....?"
All good science begins with a theory. In this case the presumption must be,
the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
I also agree 100% with your byline:
"We are all made of star stuff"
Sincerely,
-blueshift
PS Your post on the "Stickman" is fascinating.
Ah, the theory
For every item we find there are dozens if not hundreds of conflicting theories. And theories have a way of staying theory long after the results are in and everyone considers that it is no longer just a theory. We’ve been living with Einstein’s Theory of Relativity forever it seems True, it doesn’t answer all things but the majority are taken by the scientific crowd to be pretty much accurate on the whole.
I wander and throw a lot of BS from time to time so take it with a grain of salt. Mostly my purpose is to generate thought and returning posts. I rarely hit the mark. Still that’s ok. …And you were once again correct that it is indeed speculation.
The Stickman was fascinating to me also. I’ll hunt the link again as there is also a plot of “The Wall” there. If you’re interested in one you’ll be interested in the other.
It has always fascinated me that we all came from the stars, where most on these boards want to get back to.
For every item we find there are dozens if not hundreds of conflicting theories. And theories have a way of staying theory long after the results are in and everyone considers that it is no longer just a theory. We’ve been living with Einstein’s Theory of Relativity forever it seems True, it doesn’t answer all things but the majority are taken by the scientific crowd to be pretty much accurate on the whole.
I wander and throw a lot of BS from time to time so take it with a grain of salt. Mostly my purpose is to generate thought and returning posts. I rarely hit the mark. Still that’s ok. …And you were once again correct that it is indeed speculation.
The Stickman was fascinating to me also. I’ll hunt the link again as there is also a plot of “The Wall” there. If you’re interested in one you’ll be interested in the other.
It has always fascinated me that we all came from the stars, where most on these boards want to get back to.
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Taking chances
Communicating over a long distance, such as stellar distances, will have to be left to the very patient, those who look from the generation’s viewpoint. For those of us who have to think in real-time and real life it will not be so exciting. At least based on what we have to deal with. Most of us wouldn’t be around for the return answer after the question was received and understood.
Who knows, maybe an answering civilization would have an answer to that problem and realize that the span of time to carry a conversation made the conversation meaningless. What I mean is there was a sci-fi novel I read once where the signal arrived of, “hello I’m here”. Followed by a series of tutorials to allow whoever received it to eventually build a receiver to view moving pictures. After that came how to build a machine. The machine allowed the users to have access to a glactical walk in encyclopaedia. All that I can say is wouldn’t that be wonderful. However for the paranoid, it could just as well be the planet buster to eliminate all life and therefore any future threat. After all once you know, the next thing is to shake hands (or claws, tentacles, leaves or whatever). So pick your poison and take your chances.
Communicating over a long distance, such as stellar distances, will have to be left to the very patient, those who look from the generation’s viewpoint. For those of us who have to think in real-time and real life it will not be so exciting. At least based on what we have to deal with. Most of us wouldn’t be around for the return answer after the question was received and understood.
Who knows, maybe an answering civilization would have an answer to that problem and realize that the span of time to carry a conversation made the conversation meaningless. What I mean is there was a sci-fi novel I read once where the signal arrived of, “hello I’m here”. Followed by a series of tutorials to allow whoever received it to eventually build a receiver to view moving pictures. After that came how to build a machine. The machine allowed the users to have access to a glactical walk in encyclopaedia. All that I can say is wouldn’t that be wonderful. However for the paranoid, it could just as well be the planet buster to eliminate all life and therefore any future threat. After all once you know, the next thing is to shake hands (or claws, tentacles, leaves or whatever). So pick your poison and take your chances.
earth like planets
I would like to comment a little on the number of earth like planets in a solar system.
The past couple of years some data about this number is being discoverd : namely the exoplanets.
We must be cautious of course since for the moment we can only recognize solar systems with large planets, of several Jupiter masses. Still it allows for some more educated speculation on the ne number.
It seems that most of the giants planets are very close to their suns, this would make it very hard for earth like planets to form.
Perhaps a solution would be the moons of these gas giants but this would give rise to a very peculiar day and night periodicity with lots of total occlusions of the vital star light because of the proximity of the giant planet of course. Also the moons shouldn be to close to the planets or you get a moon turtured by gravitational forces like Io is, quite uninhabital I would say.
What I'm saying is the number 3 might be a lot less...
I would like to comment a little on the number of earth like planets in a solar system.
The past couple of years some data about this number is being discoverd : namely the exoplanets.
We must be cautious of course since for the moment we can only recognize solar systems with large planets, of several Jupiter masses. Still it allows for some more educated speculation on the ne number.
It seems that most of the giants planets are very close to their suns, this would make it very hard for earth like planets to form.
Perhaps a solution would be the moons of these gas giants but this would give rise to a very peculiar day and night periodicity with lots of total occlusions of the vital star light because of the proximity of the giant planet of course. Also the moons shouldn be to close to the planets or you get a moon turtured by gravitational forces like Io is, quite uninhabital I would say.
What I'm saying is the number 3 might be a lot less...