COP 26 How Successful?

[Quantum Quack]

Unfortunately, this response is just "megaphone diplomacy", i.e. talking past the other side and blaming it, instead of trying to understand their situation. India in particular faces a genuine political problem, of a scale that is hard for people in developed countries to appreciate. They are rapidly industrialising and people re getting for the first time the electrical appliances we all take for granted. Just telling them they can't use fossil fuel for electricity is a Marie Antoinette, "let them eat cake" attitude. They have to phase coal out, yes, but they can't do it immediately because it's about all they've got to keep up with today's growth in electricity demand. They need either more time or some funding from rich countries to accelerate their transition to solar etc.

While I sympathize with the terrible vexation developing nations (all nations for that matter) are facing, there simply is no choice in the matter. The future that they are planning for simply doesn't exist if the science and current data is to be believed. Equivocating on the issue is all part of global populations inability to let go of a future that doesn't exist any more. By the time all those coal fired power plants come on line in India for example, there will not be an India as we know it.
So I can only repeat what I stated... there is simply no choice, human GHG generation must cease immediately not tomorrow. Of course it will not happen by human hands so mother nature will do it for us instead.

 

[sculptor]

sculptor said: ↑
What in hell are you worried about?

Increased incidence of extreme weather events.
Extreme changes in climate that will fundamentally change the typical climates of major human-populated areas.
Mass displacement of human populations caused by rising sea levels and inundation.
Extinction of certain animal and plant species.
Increases in human mortality rates from extreme weather events (both heat and cold, as well as storms, blizzards, hurricanes, etc. etc.)
The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached.
Famine on a mass scale.
War brought on by certain areas or nations becoming uninhabitable, or at least unable to support their current populations, leading at first to mass migrations of people and later to inevitable conflicts.
Daily life for the average human being becoming, in general, much more challenging, simply because one will have to cope with the new weather normals.

That's just a few things, off the top of my head. Not a comprehensive list, by any means.

wow
crazy really does run deep around here.
james
none of what you posted has been proved
most is imagined doom
and some is outright crazy
eg: "The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached."
You do not know this--You can not know this.

FYI one of my degrees is in psychology---I never pursued it because I find it discomforting to be around crazy people.
(old joke: "Neurotics build castles in the sky and psychotics live in them".

fyi
The American Psychological Association has described climate or eco-anxiety as a "chronic fear of environmental doom". As with other forms of anxiety, living with it long-term can impair people's daily ability to function, while exacerbating underlying mental health issues.

Neurotics can fall into a feedback loop wherein crazy feeds on crazy until hitting a "tipping point" whereupon the once neurotic qualifies to win one of those fancy new sports coats with the wraparound sleeves, complete with straps and buckles.

Turn back before it's too late!

 

[sculptor]

If it makes you feel any better:
This recent July, South Africa set several new low temperature records.
and
Unusual early cold in the Arctic ocean has stranded several ships in unusually early ice.
(2 Russian ice breakers are going to try and rescue them)

 

[exchemist]

sculptor said: ↑
What in hell are you worried about?



wow
crazy really does run deep around here.
james
none of what you posted has been proved
most is imagined doom
and some is outright crazy
eg: "The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached."
You do not know this--You can not know this.

FYI one of my degrees is in psychology---I never pursued it because I find it discomforting to be around crazy people.
(old joke: "Neurotics build castles in the sky and psychotics live in them".

fyi
The American Psychological Association has described climate or eco-anxiety as a "chronic fear of environmental doom". As with other forms of anxiety, living with it long-term can impair people's daily ability to function, while exacerbating underlying mental health issues.

Neurotics can fall into a feedback loop wherein crazy feeds on crazy until hitting a "tipping point" whereupon the once neurotic qualifies to win one of those fancy new sports coats with the wraparound sleeves, complete with straps and buckles.

Turn back before it's too late!

For someone supposedly trained in psychology, you show remarkable lack of self-awareness.

 

[parmalee]

sculptor said: ↑

wow
crazy really does run deep around here.
james
none of what you posted has been proved
most is imagined doom
and some is outright crazy

Seriously?! Of James' list--

Increased incidence of extreme weather events.
Extreme changes in climate that will fundamentally change the typical climates of major human-populated areas.
Mass displacement of human populations caused by rising sea levels and inundation.
Extinction of certain animal and plant species.
Increases in human mortality rates from extreme weather events (both heat and cold, as well as storms, blizzards, hurricanes, etc. etc.)
The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached.
Famine on a mass scale.
War brought on by certain areas or nations becoming uninhabitable, or at least unable to support their current populations, leading at first to mass migrations of people and later to inevitable conflicts.
Daily life for the average human being becoming, in general, much more challenging, simply because one will have to cope with the new weather normals.

--All, save for the second to last, are presently occurring--do you actually dispute this? And the "war brought on by..." is quite reasonable speculation.

However, I do have a minor quibble over the "extinction of certain animal and plant species--most or the majority of would be more accurate: Holocene Extinction <<<

 

[sculptor]

Seriously?!

yeh seriously
question
Do you know what the climate was like during the early to mid Holocene when temperatures were warmer and sea level was higher?

Do you know when sea levels rose during the previous interglacial,? and by how much?

...........................
As re wars
all seem political to me, and usually based/started on fake "information".
(I was drafted into one, but I doubt that I would ever start one)

 

[parmalee]

yeh seriously

Ohhhhhhkay, so you contend that the following are not presently occurring:

Increased incidence of extreme weather events.
Extreme changes in climate that will fundamentally change the typical climates of major human-populated areas.
Mass displacement of human populations caused by rising sea levels and inundation.
Extinction of certain animal and plant species.
Increases in human mortality rates from extreme weather events (both heat and cold, as well as storms, blizzards, hurricanes, etc. etc.)

???

(I overlooked "famine on mass scale" before: not presently, but likely in the near future.)

How is anyone even supposed to communicate with you? Honestly, you come across as a complete fucking idiot at times.

 

[sculptor]

Ohhhhhhkay, ....

Seriously, If you would know what the eco-systems of this earth would, most likely, be like if warmer:

Look to the record of what they were like in the past under similar conditions.

extrapolate from known data

.............................
ok
granted
Such an extrapolation should yield high levels of confidence
but there is that wild card of industrial pollution (and I don't mean just CO2)

....................................
I am much more worried about what industrial agriculture is doing to the soil..........
(maybe we all need something to worry about?)

 

[parmalee]

Seriously, If you would know what the eco-systems of this earth would, most likely, be like if warmer:

And this has precisely what to do with what I very concisely, pointedly and directly asked you? Twice.

Look to the record of what they were like in the past under similar conditions.

And there were 8 billion people inhabiting the planet in the past? And cities comparable to, I dunno, Philadelphia, say, built onto what was formerly swampland?

 

[sculptor]

And this has precisely what to do with what I very concisely, pointedly and directly asked you? Twice.



And there were 8 billion people inhabiting the planet in the past? And cities comparable to, I dunno, Philadelphia, say, built onto what was formerly swampland?

Philadelphia (Pennsylvania, Philadelphia County), United States elevation is 40 meters and Philadelphia elevation in feet is 131 ft above sea level

When was mean sea level 40 meters higher than today?

 

[parmalee]

Philadelphia (Pennsylvania, Philadelphia County), United States elevation is 40 meters and Philadelphia elevation in feet is 131 ft above sea level

When was mean sea level 40 meters higher than today?

I've revised my previous assessment of you: trolling or not, you are simply and complete fucking idiot.

Where did I suggest or imply anything of the sort? How bout simply addressing what is written, and save your inane confabulations for somewhere, sometime else.

 

[sculptor]

I've revised my previous assessment of you: trolling or not, you are simply and complete fucking idiot.

Where did I suggest or imply anything of the sort? How bout simply addressing what is written, and save your inane confabulations for somewhere, sometime else.

as/re "what is written"
yours

And cities comparable to, I dunno, Philadelphia, ...

(see #29 above)

 

[James R]

wow
crazy really does run deep around here.

Do you have any children? They won't thank you for sticking your head in the sand.

none of what you posted has been proved

I'm just following what the experts have to say on this. I don't claim to be an expert myself.

most is imagined doom

And your qualifications in the field of climate science are ... ?

eg: "The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached."
You do not know this--You can not know this.

Not for sure, of course. Have you read any of the IPCC reports? This is why they always talk in terms of probabilities. Expert scientists are careful to quantify their statements and their estimates of uncertainties. It's how good science is done.

FYI one of my degrees is in psychology---I never pursued it because I find it discomforting to be around crazy people.

And what of your degree in climate science?

fyi
The American Psychological Association has described climate or eco-anxiety as a "chronic fear of environmental doom". As with other forms of anxiety, living with it long-term can impair people's daily ability to function, while exacerbating underlying mental health issues.

Does the APA have a diagnosis for chronic climate change denial that throws reason out the window in favour of right-wing politics, too?

 

[sculptor]

Increased incidence of extreme weather events.
Extreme changes in climate that will fundamentally change the typical climates of major human-populated areas.
Mass displacement of human populations caused by rising sea levels and inundation.
Extinction of certain animal and plant species.
Increases in human mortality rates from extreme weather events (both heat and cold, as well as storms, blizzards, hurricanes, etc. etc.)
The irreversibility of climate change for at least millions of years, once certain tipping points have been reached.
Famine on a mass scale.
War brought on by certain areas or nations becoming uninhabitable, or at least unable to support their current populations, leading at first to mass migrations of people and later to inevitable conflicts.
Daily life for the average human being becoming, in general, much more challenging, simply because one will have to cope with the new weather normals.

That's just a few things, off the top of my head. Not a comprehensive list, by any means.

ok
lets look at the statistics
as/re:

Increases in human mortality rates from extreme weather events (both heat and cold, as well as storms, blizzards, hurricanes, etc. etc.)

and the statistics say:
Over the past century, the number of deaths per million people from weather and climate catastrophes have dropped by 97%.

ok
If you feel that you really need to suffer from your "chronic fear of environmental doom".
don't let the science stand in your way

 

[James R]

and the statistics say:
Over the past century, the number of deaths per million people from weather and climate catastrophes have dropped by 97%.

Oh. The statistics. Yeah, right. You've got me there.

 

[sculptor]

... You've got me ... .

Darned generous of you James.
However, I don't really want you.

I would offer a little advice:
Ain't nobody's perfect
Ain't nobody knows everything
Never give up critical thinking
Research your assumptions and what you think you know.
Learn from your mistakes and grow in knowledge and wisdom.
and
Relax
and
Be well.

 

[billvon]

Over the past century, the number of deaths per million people from weather and climate catastrophes have dropped by 97%.

Hmm. Do you think that's due to the climate getting better?

Or do you think that's due to the development and availability of modern hospitals, levees, dams, rescue vehicles, helicopters, cellphones, radios, outboard engines, flotation devices, flood warnings, evacuation protocols, better weather forecasting, diversion canals, heat and air conditioning, electrical power, portable generators, public utilities, electrical drainage pumps, irrigation canals, building codes, cars and trucks (allowing evacuations) and broadcast media that is able to get timely warnings out?

Which is more likely, do you think?

Such considerations don't just apply to deaths due to climate catastrophes. Deaths due to infections disease have declined from 797 per 100,000 in 1900 to 59 deaths per 100,000 in 1996 - a decrease of 93%. Do you think that's due to diseases just going away? Or do you think it has to do with advances in medical care, public health and vaccination?

Answer carefully - because if we get that one wrong, and it is in fact medical advances rather than the end of disease that's improving outcomes, we might foolishly cut medical care and go back to those 797/100,000 rates.

 

[James R]

Darned generous of you James.

Maybe you missed my point.

I would offer a little advice:
Ain't nobody's perfect
Ain't nobody knows everything
Never give up critical thinking
Research your assumptions and what you think you know.
Learn from your mistakes and grow in knowledge and wisdom.

Do you practice what you preach?

 

[James R]

Hmm. Do you think that's due to the climate getting better?

Or do you think that's due to the development and availability of modern hospitals, levees, dams, rescue vehicles, helicopters, cellphones, radios, outboard engines, flotation devices, flood warnings, evacuation protocols, better weather forecasting, diversion canals, heat and air conditioning, electrical power, portable generators, public utilities, electrical drainage pumps, irrigation canals, building codes, cars and trucks (allowing evacuations) and broadcast media that is able to get timely warnings out?

Which is more likely, do you think?

Such considerations don't just apply to deaths due to climate catastrophes. Deaths due to infections disease have declined from 797 per 100,000 in 1900 to 59 deaths per 100,000 in 1996 - a decrease of 93%. Do you think that's due to diseases just going away? Or do you think it has to do with advances in medical care, public health and vaccination?

Answer carefully - because if we get that one wrong, and it is in fact medical advances rather than the end of disease that's improving outcomes, we might foolishly cut medical care and go back to those 797/100,000 rates.

Deaths due to smallpox have diminished greatly over the past century. Probably that's just due to a natural lull in the smallpox cycles. It couldn't possibly have anything to do with human actions.

 

[parmalee]

as/re "what is written"
yours

(see #29 above)

Right, what is written. NOT what might be implied, if, say, the reader is out of his freakin' gourd. I neither stated nor implied that Philadelphia would likely be underwater in the (relatively) near future.

Here's a suggestion: when you can't even paraphrase for shit, maybe you oughta lay off the speculation.