The Movement

It is an unfortunate occasion; let us use it for something useful.
• At various points in the Democratic contest, we have heard some supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders saying they would not vote for Hillary Clinton in the general. Some have been hardliners, others have implied that they don't like something the former Secretary of State and U.S. Senator said; still even others have argued that something a Clinton
supporter said was the clincher.
• What, then, do we say about the idea that a Bernie Sanders now finds himself charged for threatening to cut out a Congressman's tongue because he endorsed Hillary Clinton?
SeattlePI.com↱ reports that Jasper Bell told police his threat "was appropriate because my voice was being silenced".
The answer is that we shrug, say what we want about Mr. Bell being foolish, or idiotic, or an asshole, or whatever. And then we move on. Besides, Congressman McDermott is not unfamiliar with raving lunatics spewing threats:
McDermott has received threats several times over his career, notably from a California man upset at McDermott's liberal politics. That man, a Palm Springs resident living on a trust fund, was sentenced to eight months in prison; at sentencing, U.S. District Judge James Robart remarked that “when you break the law, there are consequences that parents, trust funds and hired therapists cannot solve."
McClatchy↱ reported earlier this month that as many as twenty-five percent of Sanders' supporters would not support Hillary Clinton in the general election. Just over two thirds responding to a McClatchy-Marist poll explicitly declared they would support her. Fourteen percent of respondents supporting Clinton said they would not support Sanders; seventy-nine percent declared they would.
It's worth considering these holdout blocs.
It is easy enough for any liberal to become distressed by a long record of a compromising Democrat if we forget the
Democratic coalition↑ that finds its way into office. The Democratic Party is the "big tent" party right now, and for decades has relied on cobbling together diverse elements that don't always share common priorities other than the one or two they can agree on; nothing about "jobs and the environment" says Democrats keep those voters if the Party throws all-in on some other issue. And how the hell did Democrats end up with national security, an issue long ceded to conservatives because, let's face it, liberals aren't about to win the world peace fight.
You know, in 1992, gays relied on
Christians to fend off homophobia. It's not apparent in the discourse right now but we made a lot of promises along the way, and that's why the latest conservative push is so disappointing; what we said wouldn't happen actually isn't happening, yet look at the magnitude to the response as if it actually was.
You know how we lost Christians in subsequent years? Some right-winger said something stupid; everyone crashed on him; the right-winger bawled about oppression of Christians, and a whole bunch of Christians threw in with that.
Progressive coalitions are delicate.
Everybody knows the Establishment has run out of time, say, to fix the banks and the financial system, but we lose that part of the big tent coalition if we do it blindly, as Bernie Sanders suggests. (No, seriously,
how could he get this far in without studying the legal implications?) The jobs and economy crossovers and independents are a significant part of that Clinton-supporting fourteen percent. Democrats lose a big part of their national security crossovers and independents going Bernie's way. This is another significant part of that fourteen percent. These are often people the Democrats have picked up as castoffs from the GOP. Who here remembers "liberal Republicans"? These days it's astounding who we'll call a moderate.
Most of the Clinton holdout bloc is that portion of the Party conservative enough that "socialism" by any name is a bridge too far. Say what one will about the Establishment, rail against the System; this is the reality. This is how Democrats do it, and, you know, sure, Rev. Jesse Jackson had the better platform in the eighties but
market reality said otherwise. There's a reason why the Party took a rightward roll under Bill Clinton; it's how Democrats got back in the game after twelve years under Reagan and Bush, and a long decline in organization and morale since the McGovern disaster. And as the Republican Party continues its hardline consolidation, Democrats keep picking up a bunch of alienated GOP voters. It's one thing to fret about Hillary Clinton's hawkish record, but things are so bad in the GOP she's about to pick up the neocon vote. In the long run, that won't have much effect on her policy outlook; they're not really a bloc Democrats would want to leave as a wildcard, because given a choice between Sanders and Trump, many of them might gamble on the traditional influence of the defense industry to puppeteer him. Clinton can probably win with what share of them she would have gotten with, say, Rubio on the ticket, but between business and defense, those more conservative blocs will help nail a couple states in the blue column.
Historically, the United States includes a leftist bloc that generally refuses participation; and while some come out to vote in support of human rights, environmental protection, and economic jsutice, the American left has long suffered a dearth of organization. Mr. Sanders has mobilized part of this bloc, and if they don't get what they want many will certainly skip the presidential vote altogether, or, as Conor Lynch suggests, back Jill Stein or write in Bernie Sanders, anyway. And, you know, as long as Clinton wins in November, their burned vote will be an exhibit of minor interest, a measure of what potentials Democrats might consider tapping. In its own right, that sounds perfectly safe; I wouldn't have voted off-ticket in 2000 if I thought Gore needed my vote. He didn't, so my vote for the nuclear physicist and his Vedic defense shield pretty much did exactly what it was supposed to, which was settle an old score I had suspended twice in order to see him to the vice-presidency.
There is, of course, the slim prospect that these votes could cost Democrats the White House, in which case any pretense of a liberal revolution gets kicked out the door for another couple decades, but who else is in the Sanders holdout bloc?
I have no problem speculating that at least half of them would end up casting a ballot for Hillary Clinton, anyway; that's also part of the political posturing at this point. But do leftist puritans really make up between an eighth and a quarter of the Sanders movement? That's a harder question to answer. Meanwhile, just how many liberal anti-Hillary conspiracy theory tinfoilers could there possibly be? And, you know, I can recall the female conservative labor Democrat from Iowa who said in 2007 that Hillary Clinton shouldn't be president because being president isn't a woman's job, but I just don't think that's a significant―or even measurable―bloc of Sanders' support.
His labor vote won't be among those breaking from Clinton in November. The trade vote is an interesting question.
One realistic goal Mr. Sanders might aim for is restoration of the social contract. In theory, they ought to vote for her, and then keep the heat up in order to hold her to certain promsies. The thing is that few people have faith in that manner of social contract anymore, and as pretty much anybody can figure out, these days, there is a reason for that.
But there is a history to why Democrats support international trade agreements; that Trans-Pacific is one too many ought to be the signal, since Democrats are accustomed to losing elections over opposition to trade agreements. Let's face it, Trans-Pacific is going through, but what else is in the works? Step one: Compel President Clinton to cough up a list of ongoing trade agreement negotiations. Step two: Agitate to force those negotiations into public view. Step three: President Clinton ought to be smart enough to realize that means she needs a lot more chairs at the table. Run Clinton through the wringer a couple times on that sort of stuff and she'll figure it out. Good luck on that count with anyone else.
We need not
blame Mr. Sanders or his supporters for the actions of a basket case. But I would be remiss to not mention how much some of my Sanders-supporting neighbors in these United States sound like the guy.
And that kind of rhetoric isn't going to be helpful, either in looking ahead to November, or in considering what happens beyond that.
This rather quite impressive movement needs to stick around. Indeed, if it gets its shit together and stops inventing ammunition for Republicans, the Sanders movement can grow within reach of success.
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Notes:
Pulkkinen, Levi. "Threatened, Rep. Jim McDermott armed himself―with a shovel". SeattlePI. 28 April 2016. SeattlePI.com. 29 April 2016. http://bit.ly/26BPKjE
Kumar, Anita. "Poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton". McClatchyDC. 6 April 2016. McClatchyDC.com. 29 April 2016. http://bit.ly/1QFJ8oL
Lynch, Conor. "It won't be so easy for Hillary: Why Clinton will have to do much more to win over Bernie supporters". Salon. 27 April 2016. Salon.com. 29 April 2016. http://bit.ly/26wcFgf