except no one knows the exact circumstances when the first reproducing polimer occurred. It took the earth about 4 billion years, why should we expect to just throw a few chemicals together and expect self replication. The Miller-Yuri experiment shows that molecules can be formed by the thousands in a very short time, but which is far too many, to learn much more than that chemicals are easily formed.
Hazen called the
ideal condition as the "
bottleneck ", i.e. a rare event when all conditions were just right.
But then he estimates that the earth has performed some 2 trillion, quadrillion, quadrillion, quadrillion (natural) chemical experiments during it's lifetime and changes, one of which (or perhaps even several times) hit the right combination under the right conditions.
Not easy to duplicate in a lab.....
But on his back-0f-the envelope notes he also does not exclude the possibility that "reproduction" might form in several different ways. He cited self-organization, surface organization, black smokers, and the formation of RNA all having the potential to form life, even as it may not necessarily be human. That would set an unwarranted limitation on the definition of "living organisms"
According to him, life (reproduction and evolution) has a high probability of occurring on other cinderella planets throughout the universe. The combinatory richness and numbers of universal chemical reactions is immeasurable. If there are other "earths" out there, some form of life is likely to exist there as well.