Apocalypse Soon?

[Futilitist]

100% rational?

It's amazingly persistent. For thousands of years the lure of the apocalypse prediction has proven too strong for otherwise 100% rational people.

Tell that to the Mayans and the Easter Islanders.

Please at least read the David Price essay, "Energy and Human Evolution" which is linked in my original post. It shows why the collapse of industrial civilization, and subsequent die off, is actually inevitable, due to the eventual depletion of the energy resources on which it depends. We are not different than any other life form on earth in this respect. How could it be otherwise?

---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

Tell that to the Mayans and the Easter Islanders.

Sure. You can tell the Mayans yourself, though; they are doing quite well. If their fate is what we have to look forward to we're in pretty good shape.

Please at least read the David Price essay, "Energy and Human Evolution" which is linked in my original post. It shows why the collapse of industrial civilization, and subsequent die off, is actually inevitable, due to the eventual depletion of the energy resources on which it depends. We are not different than any other life form on earth in this respect. How could it be otherwise?

It is not. And when the Sun, which is the source of all our energy, goes out, we will die along with it - at least, those of us left in this star system.

 

[Futilitist]

Farming causes the nature of the soil to decline either by direct loss of the soil bulk over time by inevitable erosion, or depletion of minerals like phosphorus. Since farming has been going on in the Midwest, I've heard that the soil depth has already decreased from 6 feet down to 3 feet.

I believe that is the correct figure for topsoil in the Midwest. Scientists say that we are nearing peak phosphorus, and there is no known substitute. And farming also requires fresh water which is being rapidly deleted as well. And future farmers will not have farm machinery.

---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

Sure. You can tell the Mayans yourself, though; they are doing quite well. If their fate is what we have to look forward to we're in pretty good shape.

There are descendants of the Mayans still alive today, but their ancestors had a complete social collapse and a 90-95 percent die off. If their fate is what we have to look forward to we're in terrible shape. Nine out of ten people reading this will likely die of starvation, violence, and disease within the next ten years or so. And you didn't even mention the Easter Islanders. They practiced cannibalism during their collapse.

It is not. And when the Sun, which is the source of all our energy, goes out, we will die along with it - at least, those of us left in this star system.

Did you read the essay? An eventual human die off is an absolute certainty. I asked you how it could be otherwise and you answered, "It is not." Good answer.

And humans will be extinct long before the sun goes out. Why bring that up?

---Futilitist

 

[Carcano]

The wealthy senators of ancient Rome did not downsize during the fall of Rome.

Thats because the fall of Rome to the Visigoths was not a downsizing event.

If you want to talk about the 'decline' of Rome instead then yes...the wealthy gradually downsized, while the architecture became less and less grandiose.

 

[wellwisher]

The biggest difference in America is America has become more feminized. There are fewer men left; mostly women and children. If you compare the traditional husband and wife, the wife did not work, she liked to spend and was a dependent. This is the new America. Nagging and busy body were her past times, with the bad boy her preferred child. We protect criminals, nag at religion, and institute a nanny state. The stereo typical male was more self reliant, was more of a giver to his family instead of a taker, and was more frugal since his wage had to last; looking longer term. To avoid the decline, we need to overturn all sexist and racists laws and let natural selection replace liberal selection.

 

[elte]

The biggest difference in America is America has become more feminized. There are fewer men left; mostly women and children. If you compare the traditional husband and wife, the wife did not work, she liked to spend and was a dependent. This is the new America. Nagging and busy body were her past times, with the bad boy her preferred child. We protect criminals, nag at religion, and institute a nanny state. The stereo typical male was more self reliant, was more of a giver to his family instead of a taker, and was more frugal since his wage had to last; looking longer term. To avoid the decline, we need to overturn all sexist and racists laws and let natural selection replace liberal selection.

That's the old way, and society has advanced beyond patriarchal supremacy, and for good reason. We have worked toward equality of rights of the human person and made humanity more humane by doing so.

 

[billvon]

but their ancestors had a complete social collapse and a 90-95 percent die off.

Huh? They lost ~60% of their population over 250 years. If that happens to the US that would be a good thing in my book. (Although reduction by 30% rather than 60% would probably be a better target.)

If their fate is what we have to look forward to we're in terrible shape. Nine out of ten people reading this will likely die of starvation, violence, and disease within the next ten years or so.

Not at all. Mayan civilization peaked at about 20 million people; about the population of Florida. So the horror you are suggesting is that by the year 2250 the population of Florida will drop to about 6 million. I can live with that.

And you didn't even mention the Easter Islanders. They practiced cannibalism during their collapse.

There are plenty of small populations that were annihilated in horrible ways. The flooding of the Black Sea (the likely source of the Noah's Ark myth) likely killed millions. But unless you are living under a dam in an earthquake zone I wouldn't worry about it too much.

And humans will be extinct long before the sun goes out. Why bring that up?

Because that is the point where we really will run out of energy.

 

[billvon]

To avoid the decline, we need to overturn all sexist and racists laws and let natural selection replace liberal selection.

Dump that liberal bullshit and get them slaves back to work! Survival of the fittest (or the ones with the most guns.)

 

[Futilitist]

Thats because the fall of Rome to the Visigoths was not a downsizing event.

If you want to talk about the 'decline' of Rome instead then yes...the wealthy gradually downsized, while the architecture became less and less grandiose.

Wrong. The wealthy may have downsized during the decline of Rome, as you say, but they did not end waste. And the non wealth Romans starved. In other words, Romans did not develop the "sanity" you claim we easily will.

And your nitpicking over fall vs decline brings up some important points. The decline of Rome was ameliorated by fact that the Romans had a relatively low energy lifestyle compared to us. The majority of Romans lived closer to the land than we do, so adaptation was much easier than what we face. Their environment was not as degraded as ours. The Romans were not dependent on just in time delivery like we are. Individual Romans were not as specialized as we are. The Romans were not dependent on a particular source of power that suddenly increased in cost. The Romans weren't dependent on electrical power like we are.

And the fall of Rome to the Visigoths was a rapid event that the Romans could not adapt to. Our social collapse will be a very rapid event. Therefore, apocalypse is also not a downsizing event. It is a die off, due to reaching the peak extraction rate of a keystone resource with no adequate substitutes.

Why didn't the Easter Islanders or the Mayans develop the mythical "sanity" you speak of?

Once again, there are no historical examples of the sudden attainment of "sanity".

---futilitist

 

[youreyes]

Where is your apocalypse now, OP Nostradamus?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

 

[Futilitist]

Huh? They lost ~60% of their population over 250 years. If that happens to the US that would be a good thing in my book. (Although reduction by 30% rather than 60% would probably be a better target.)

Huh?

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Maya/

According to NASA archaeologist Tom Sever, the Mayan civilization in Mesoamerica was one of the densest populations in human history. Around 800 A.D., after two millennia of steady growth, the Mayan population reached an all-time high. Population density ranged from 500 to 700 people per square mile in the rural areas, and from 1,800 to 2,600 people per square mile near the center of the Mayan Empire (in what is now northern Guatemala). In comparison, Los Angeles County averaged 2,345 people per square mile in 2000. Yet by studying remains of Mayan settlements, Sever found that by 950 A.D., the population had crashed. “Perhaps as many as 90 to 95 percent of the Maya died,” he said.

http://www.atitlan.net/maya/mayan-civilization.htm

As at the end of the pre-classic period, the Maya abandoned all of the lowland cities and never returned, but this time there were millions of Maya. As each city collapsed, the refugees overwhelmed resources in the adjacent areas. The Maya cities collapsed one after the other. Depending on the quality of the water supply and the extend of local environmental degradation, they fell like dominoes over a 50 year period. 90% of the Maya died...

Not at all. Mayan civilization peaked at about 20 million people; about the population of Florida. So the horror you are suggesting is that by the year 2250 the population of Florida will drop to about 6 million. I can live with that.

I'm glad you can live with your gross underestimations of, and extrapolations from, the Mayan social collapse.

There are plenty of small populations that were annihilated in horrible ways. The flooding of the Black Sea (the likely source of the Noah's Ark myth) likely killed millions. But unless you are living under a dam in an earthquake zone I wouldn't worry about it too much.

So?

Because that is the point where we really will run out of energy.

That is just silly. And who do you mean by we? The sun is expected to "go out" in about 8 billion years. Multicellular life forms have only been around for a little over 600 million years. Horseshoe crabs are thought to be the one of the oldest living species on earth. They have been around for about 445 million years. Coelacanths have been around for about 410 million years. Tyrannosaurus Rex only lasted about 3 million years. Homo erectus survived for almost 2 million years, almost double the time of any other hominid. Do you seriously expect Homo sapiens sapiens to be around in 8 billion years? You are a hyper optimist.

---Futilitist

 

[spidergoat]

The biggest difference in America is America has become more feminized. There are fewer men left; mostly women and children. If you compare the traditional husband and wife, the wife did not work, she liked to spend and was a dependent. This is the new America. Nagging and busy body were her past times, with the bad boy her preferred child. We protect criminals, nag at religion, and institute a nanny state. The stereo typical male was more self reliant, was more of a giver to his family instead of a taker, and was more frugal since his wage had to last; looking longer term. To avoid the decline, we need to overturn all sexist and racists laws and let natural selection replace liberal selection.

Paradoxically, it was conservatism that led to the decline of this lifestyle. Conservatives supported exporting jobs to foreign factories, opposed unions that raised wages, opposed protectionism and trade tariffs. So if you are wondering why American men can no longer make enough money to support a family with wife at home, just look in the mirror.

 

[spidergoat]

There are descendants of the Mayans still alive today, but their ancestors had a complete social collapse and a 90-95 percent die off. If their fate is what we have to look forward to we're in terrible shape. Nine out of ten people reading this will likely die of starvation, violence, and disease within the next ten years or so.

We are in terrible shape, but we probably won't starve. Unlike the South American jungle, we have lots of farmland.

 

[Futilitist]

What you don't know

Where is your apocalypse now, OP Nostradamus?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

I am Futilitist, not Nostradamus, and I am not on that list. Peak oil is not even mentioned.

I guess your point is that human civilization will last forever, right? Please read the David Price essay entitled "Energy and Human Evolution" which I linked in my original post. That essay explains why you just plain wrong.

Has anybody actually read the essay yet? It shouldn't take more than 40 minutes to read. I guess what you don't know can't hurt you.

No one will even try to debate the actual topic with me. I guess you are all afraid. Oh well.

---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

The biggest difference in America is America has become more feminized. There are fewer men left; mostly women and children. If you compare the traditional husband and wife, the wife did not work, she liked to spend and was a dependent. This is the new America. Nagging and busy body were her past times, with the bad boy her preferred child. We protect criminals, nag at religion, and institute a nanny state. The stereo typical male was more self reliant, was more of a giver to his family instead of a taker, and was more frugal since his wage had to last; looking longer term. To avoid the decline, we need to overturn all sexist and racists laws and let natural selection replace liberal selection.

Good old fashioned natural selection will soon take over. That is what apocalypse is all about.

---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

We are in terrible shape, but we probably won't starve. Unlike the South American jungle, we have lots of farmland.

Also unlike the South American jungle, we have a much higher population as well as a higher population density. When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%).

Please take some time to read the material I provided in the original post.

---Futilitist

 

[spidergoat]

Also unlike the South American jungle, we have a much higher population as well as a higher population density. When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%).

Please take some time to read the material I provided in the original post.

---Futilitist

I think that's an extreme estimate. For sure there will be less money to spend on healthcare, food, shelter, etc, but I think it will be more of a prolonged misery, not a rapid die-off. Our economic activities will reset around the needs of agriculture. This notion is nothing new, I urge you to read if you haven't already, the work of:

James Howard Kunstler
http://www.kunstler.com/index.php

and

Dmitry Orlov
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

 

[billvon]

Huh?

According to NASA archaeologist Tom Sever, the Mayan civilization in Mesoamerica was one of the densest populations in human history. Around 800 A.D . . .Sever found that by 950 A.D., the population had crashed. “Perhaps as many as 90 to 95 percent of the Maya died,” he said.

Here's my radical prediction - during the same time frame (150 years) 100% of Americans will die! It will be the APOCALYPSE! Of course, our kids will live on.

BTW he is saying that that the population density went down in that area. He is not saying that they all died at the same time of some apocalypse. However believe whatever makes you happy. Not sure why you need to believe in all that death stuff, but to each their own.

I'm glad you can live with your gross underestimations of, and extrapolations from, the Mayan social collapse.

Yes, I can live with history, despite your predictions that I will, instead, die.

That is just silly. And who do you mean by we? The sun is expected to "go out" in about 8 billion years. Multicellular life forms have only been around for a little over 600 million years. Horseshoe crabs are thought to be the one of the oldest living species on earth. They have been around for about 445 million years. Coelacanths have been around for about 410 million years. Tyrannosaurus Rex only lasted about 3 million years. Homo erectus survived for almost 2 million years, almost double the time of any other hominid. Do you seriously expect Homo sapiens sapiens to be around in 8 billion years?

Homo sapiens? No. Our descendents? Yes.

 

[billvon]

Also unlike the South American jungle, we have a much higher population as well as a higher population density. When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%).

Another end-of-the-world-due-to-peak-oil prediction. These have been coming steadily for the last 20 years or so. Last one I heard was 2010.