Hipparchia
Registered Senior Member
I have read much of the thread with interest. Several points have been dealt with in great detail and it is difficult to know where to enter the conversation without going over old ground, so I thought I'd just plunge in to one of your recent posts. This is what you said in response to billvon's query "What materials will we use up?"
Oil - I certainly agree that we will use the available oil at some point. It looks likely that will happen, in practical terms, sometime this century, but why do you think alternative energy sources, coupled with energy conservation cannot replace this?
Fresh Water - Thoughtful economists, historians and scientists have been suggesting/warning for some time that we could face a crisis in the availability of fresh water. I wonder if you would acknowledge that this is more a crisis of the distribution of fresh water than it is an absolute shortage of fresh water. Certainly we can't use up fresh water, unless it stops raining, so it seems this one is out of place in your list.
Concentrated Metal Ores - Would you concede that this would cease to be a problem if the energy problem were licked? If not, why not?
Phosphorus - I am assuming you are concerned about the depletion of inexpensive phosphorous reserves which form a key part of the Green Revolution. If this is so, why do you consider it highly unlikely - which by implication is the case - that we will not find an effective means of conserving and recycling nutrients in our farming methods?
I sense, and would welcome a correction on your part if I got it wrong, that you do not see any way we can dig our way out of a problem by application of smarter technology. Do I have that right? If I do understand you correclty on that point on what basis do you justify the view? We've used technology to dig ourselves out of problem after problem for centuries. I'm just not clear why you think this should end now. I'm not saying that we will always find a solution in technology, but we have thus far, so why is now going to be the first time that it fails us?
I'd like to look at each of these in turn -Oil, fresh water, topsoil, concentrated metal ores, phosphorus, etc. Basically all of the stuff we need to continue with industrialized civilization.
Oil - I certainly agree that we will use the available oil at some point. It looks likely that will happen, in practical terms, sometime this century, but why do you think alternative energy sources, coupled with energy conservation cannot replace this?
Fresh Water - Thoughtful economists, historians and scientists have been suggesting/warning for some time that we could face a crisis in the availability of fresh water. I wonder if you would acknowledge that this is more a crisis of the distribution of fresh water than it is an absolute shortage of fresh water. Certainly we can't use up fresh water, unless it stops raining, so it seems this one is out of place in your list.
Concentrated Metal Ores - Would you concede that this would cease to be a problem if the energy problem were licked? If not, why not?
Phosphorus - I am assuming you are concerned about the depletion of inexpensive phosphorous reserves which form a key part of the Green Revolution. If this is so, why do you consider it highly unlikely - which by implication is the case - that we will not find an effective means of conserving and recycling nutrients in our farming methods?
I sense, and would welcome a correction on your part if I got it wrong, that you do not see any way we can dig our way out of a problem by application of smarter technology. Do I have that right? If I do understand you correclty on that point on what basis do you justify the view? We've used technology to dig ourselves out of problem after problem for centuries. I'm just not clear why you think this should end now. I'm not saying that we will always find a solution in technology, but we have thus far, so why is now going to be the first time that it fails us?