Zhongguo raising

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Undecided, Jan 21, 2005.

  1. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    We are seeing the dawn of a new era in the world, as the United States is wasting its men, money, and credit rating fighting useless wars that in the end will eventually come back to haunt it. The Chinese are wisely using their growing economic clout to get what she wants. The big thing that’s happening now vis-à-vis China is the EU planned lifting of the military sanctions which were placed post-1989. Let’s just review the facts:

    http://www.timesoftibet.com/articles/194/1/EU-China-arms-ban-'to-be-lifted'


    Washington’s fears are not for Taiwan but for her own degrading position in East Asia. America albeit the world’s most powerful nation is losing its grip on that power. China which within the next decade will take over the US economy has the world’s largest, and soon after should be the world’s premier trading nation (last year Chinese trade for the first time exceeded $1 trillion, and grew at a alarming 37%), and possibly the world’s largest creditor post-2020, that would put China as the world’s premier power. America in contrast is the world’s largest debtor (a superpower is never one with net debt), a weakening dollar (so much so that the Euro is being really considered as the new reserve currency), an overstretched military, and a government/population who is funded by overseas savers, the US consumes 80% of the world’s savings, that is unsustainable. With the pretty much inevitable America depression within my lifetime China would by that time hopefully be big enough to absorb some of the impact of a disastrous American collapse (the ownership society isn’t working America). Meanwhile the EU has her problems to be sure; a population whose median age by 2050 will be 53 years old! A slow growing economy, if not lethargic at that, but it is the world’s largest investor, the world’s strongest currency, and close to the technological standards of the United States. But apart from the economic consequences of the Bush team, we go to the Chinese growth in her military prowess. This article from a truly great source is telling us exactly what China is doing…she is punching below her weight:

    Which oh so very true, China is modernizing at a rate never seen before in human history. It took the US 100 years to do what China did in 30. China is growing not only in size and scope, but in depth. The Chinese are manoeuvring in Asia to become the regions sole legitimate power, as China once was. China imo see’s itself as the origin of the Oriental culture, and way of life and will seek to increase its power over the region. But unlike the United States, China will do it subtely. She is already Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and increasingly Russia, India, and Latin America’s new best trading partner. The US is losing ground badly against the Chinese, the best example is how China’s power is fundamentally changing Latin America, the Chinese promised what the US can’t…$100 billion in actual investment. Brazil and China are working together to de-monopolize the US’ power over the region, but this is only part of the tactic:

    Indeed, as US unipolar power degrades in real terms, the rest of the world will begin to seriously catch up. Wars like Iraq will become increasingly more difficult for the US because the powers that be will have a much stronger hand against the indebted American economy. The UN should also gain in importance because it will begin to serve the interests of all states, because only the UN can really give one the legitimacy needed to do things (if you don’t believe me, look at Iraq today, the UN was right). China will be up there with the US and the EU determining the future of the world, and increasingly will surpass both.

    Which is why the EU getting rid of the sanctions presents such a challenge to the United States. As I said earlier “Washington’s fears are not for Taiwan but for her own degrading position in East Asia.” The US is losing ground against the Chinese because the Chinese are able to afford to buy weaponry from almost any nation now, weaponry like the Rafale jet fighter which I believe she may buy for her carrier forces, and hi-tech European radars, and other sensors which imo would be fitted on Chinese and Russian built ships to bombers. Already Russia has agreed to sell China the deadly TU-22M bombers, which was designed to destroy American battle groups. China is quickly catching up to the US, although she wouldn’t win in a global war, she could win in the Taiwan Straits.

    Indeed one of China’s weakness’ is the “island carrier” as it is known from Japan to the Philippines which the has US monopolized, that is a natural impediment to China’s geo-political growth. Should Taiwan re-unify with China, China would have broken that chain, and would have access to the Pacific, and the Taiwanese economy which is worth $500 billion, once China gets Taiwan it’s a bonafide world power.

    Only Russia, Japan, and India pose any real threat to China from her borders. With the exception of Japan, India and Russia seem to gravitating towards a tripartite alliance which corners in Central Asia which now has an abundance of oil, and Natural Gas. Also Iran could join in that alliance, completely alienating the United States in the region, Sino-Russo trade is growing, and Russia always hungry for a market is sure to follow.

    Source: http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=253&language_id=1

    The EU caving in says so much more then we presume, it is an affirmation that China has made it. Now that the EU is China’s largest trading partner, China and the EU understand that together they may be able to increasingly alienate the United States, China gets Asia, the EU gets Europe. These nations aren’t trying to destroy the US, but rather degrade its already degrading power. The Bush administration has given China and the EU the moral weight in the world’s eyes to do their bidding, as the US is idiotically fighting wars it cannot win, behind the scenes the seeds and being sown for a new world order. That’s why ladies and gents Bush’s clamouring of “freedom” don’t mean much, except to Americans.
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. Overdose From the steppes of Mongolia Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    213
    China is playing the game very wisely...
    If you check "www.sinodefence.com" you ll see also their military capabilities.
    I am just waiting and wonder when this "peaceful rising" of China"is going to end and they will invade Taiwan.
    They are very smart not to have problems with the EU. Both sides are happy for now and get what they want from each other..
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    Oh I'm quite stupid...rising not raising...sorry.
     
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  7. Overdose From the steppes of Mongolia Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    213
    Actually Chriac's speech in Beijing tells us everything
    "France and China share a common vision of the world, a multipolar world"
    So, EU doesn't want a strong America anymore

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  8. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    The EU never wanted a strong America, especially France who has been at the head of the EU in terms of international policy. France has been at the forefront also of getting this arms embargo lifted against the Chinese, why? Because France stands the most to benefit with the Chinese. Firstly the French and Chinese have already had joint military exercises, the Chinese have bought one of France’s bug corporations Thompson, China is bound to buy large amounts of French military hardware, especially I suspect the Rafale for China’s carriers, and China has the same geo-political interest as France. While the US is dreaming about “freedom” and all that nonsense, the French are playing real politick and wining at that.
     
  9. towards Relax...head towards the light Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    640
    "China which within the next decade will take over the US economy has the world’s largest, and soon after should be the world’s premier trading nation", Undecided

    Your ever rosy picture of China and its burgeoning economic might never mentions the potentially disasterous problems this nation faces.....

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD16Ad03.html

    "China pumps in $4 for $1 of annual output
    Another looming problem is that, despite a potential 1.3-billion-consumer market, hard-to-get data reveal surplus accumulation in some manufactured goods. Unchecked overinvestment could easily fuel deflation down the line. If that's not enough, China's growth quality is questionable, and may be unsustainable. Incremental capital-output ratio numbers show China has been pumping more money to generate the same growth. To generate an additional $1 of annual output, China now pumps in $4, compared with $2-$3 in the 1980s and 1990s. Last year, fixed capital spending accounted for a whopping 47 percent of GDP. That's worrying."


    "A recent report in the 21st Century Business Herald, a Chinese newspaper, says local governments could have accumulated debts exceeding 1 trillion yuan ($120.9 billion). The situation is just as dire on the level of non-performing loans in the state-banking sector. Estimates put the state-run commercial banks needing at least 2 trillion yuan to bail them out of insolvency."

    "China's banking sector faces a crunching financial crisis, which Beijing has been desperate to hide. These problems are set to worsen Beijing's fiscal position, though. It is already lumbered with a swollen budget deficit of its own, with public debt at 30 percent of GDP, and climbing fast. Now it may be forced to take on more of China's growing debt problems from other sectors."

    Some statistics quote as much as 50% of the loans Chinese banks have given may be unrecoverable. You speak of American debt, yet China's only remedy may be its continued hope of attracting more foreign currency. Just like past Asian tigers, China may have an economic breakdown based on debt, as well.

    China also continues to have a monumental problem with corruption...

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4412-2004Dec16.html

    "Corruption among government and party officials has been cited as a major reason for dissatisfaction among China's 1.3 billion people as the country moves from socialism toward a market economy."

    "In the report, auditors listed steps they have taken this year to recover $3.5 billion in government funds that they said were supposed to be turned over to the national treasury as part of the 2003 budget but remained illicitly with state-owned enterprises and other public concerns. About $2.5 billion of these funds have been recuperated, but about $1 billion is still unaccounted for, they said. There was no word on how much was missing from the $300 billion 2004 budget, the subject of audits currently underway. "

    We are talking about BILLIONS missing here....

    http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/1830.html

    "The Chinese Communist Party has issued an ambitious six-point plan for tackling rampant official corruption in its ranks in 2004, but a former high-ranking Party official says its efforts are doomed to failure without political reform, RFA's Mandarin service reports."

    "Where do the roots of China's corruption problem lie? With the single party system, with the fact that there is no democracy," Bao Tong, former Party Central Committee member, told RFA."

    "The official People's Daily newspaper estimated recently that U.S. $30 billion a year disappears from state coffers in China through the actions of fraudulent officials. Another estimate by a Chinese scholar put the amount at U.S.$157 billion over the past three years."

    The Chinese government, which must crush civil rights in order to maintain power, is beginning to lose control over its country. A major point, Undecided, that you refuse to make is that the Chinese government may well be the largest obstacle in the path of the nations prosperity. The Chinese government will never let go enough to give up power, and its billion poor farmers are just waiting for a small economic decline in order to revolt. This is the history of China, and it is inevitable to repeat itself without a huge political reform.

    China has always been an unstable nation always on the verge of revolution, I think the clock here may be ticking....

    Finally the biggest problem China may have is with its water supply..

    http://www.rics.org.uk/Environmenta...nt/Environmentalconservation/yellow_river.htm

    http://www.clo2.com/reading/waternews/China_water_crisis.html

    The yellow river is drying up, and a water shortage may be inevitable in the future due to both pollution and poor water management. This is a little stated catastrophe that may become realized in the next few decades. Robert Kaplan, an avid traveler and writer, makes detailed notes of this problem in many of his books.

    China's future may not be a rosy as one may think....
     
  10. vslayer Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,969
    oh, yea, finally the red giant awakes, if what undecided said is correct then by 2020 we will have a communist superpower, its almost w00tworthy
     
  11. towards Relax...head towards the light Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    640
    "oh, yea, finally the red giant awakes, if what undecided said is correct then by 2020 we will have a communist superpower, its almost w00tworthy", Vslayer

    I am glad that you are so ecstatic about the idea of communistic government that runs over its own people with tanks. If the population continues to become wealthier, however, you will most likely see a change of politics (with a revolution or not) that would resemble something like capitalist U.S.
     
  12. Brian Foley REFUSE - RESIST Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,624
    What is happening here with China in regard to the EU and America is this . Since the EU is now under one currency its consumer market is now 500+ million people twice that of the US . The EU acting as one economy can absorb a lot more from China than the USA can , so in China's eyes the EU is vastly more important than America . With this extra economic leveredge the EU can ignore the American policy of containing China and will export weapons to China . China only has the economic ability to become a Pacific power which is a threat too America not the EU .

    Yes you are and that era is the economic ascendancy of The European Union into the centre of Global Finance . What you are seeing my good freind undecided is Americas economic funeral .
     
  13. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

    Messages:
    24,690
    I think that much of what we see in China as so miraculous is due to the fact that she is the only long-surviving continuous civilization on this planet. Using the generous standards one can use when comparing it to Rome, Egypt, Persia, etc., China has had one continuous government for about 6,000 years. There's something to be said for continuity. China works and the people who comprise it know that. All that's required to keep it working is the patience to allow some trifle like a barbarian invasion or the imposition of a preposterous economic model to sort itself out over multiple generations, and China always emerges relatively unscathed. "This too shall pass" must be their national motto.
     
  14. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    While I agree the US does dream about freedom (whatever that means).

    Your notion: all that nonsense, really takes the wind out of an otherwise decent piece. I would be more than willing to bet that within 50 years if the communists ruling China don’t give up their power and grant the Chinese citizens the same basic rights as most Western countries - there'll be another revolution.

    I think we can agree history says that the good-times only role along for so long and dictatorial regimes result in revolutions. The US doesn’t have the oldest constitution still in use because “freedom and all that nonsense” is nonsense. Sure Chinese are willing to work 20h/d now because they think their going to be given control over their destiny in the future and if that isn’t the case – then they’ll take. When the economy is going good - sure everyone is happy. But, the Chinese economy is not going to keep growing at this pace for 50 years - there will come a crunch time, as there always is. That's when it becomes interesting.
     
  15. Dr Lou Natic Unnecessary Surgeon Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,574
    Vslayer and undecided remind me of those people in that shitty movie independence day who get on the roof of that sckyscraper with their signs excitedly welcoming the aliens, only to be blown to smithereens.

    I almost hope they get what they wish for, just so they can feel stupid when they're the property of cruel mongol overlords.
     
  16. gendanken Ruler of All the Lands Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,779
    Undecided:

    Nice post.

    Overdose:
    Idunno.
    China, with its booming economy and its break-neck consumerism, is a dot.com

    I’ve never seen anything like it- you have, I hear, factories that used to make buttons or t-shirts transforming themselves into car manufacturers.
    Think about it- people that used to make buttons, now making cars because of demand.
    A bit too much, no?

    I admire the Chinese for not being plagued by the European-like need to be ‘correct’ and accepted, but I say in a few years we’ll be seeing a meltdown.

    You simply cannot grow so quickly and expect stability. You explode.
     
  17. invert_nexus Ze do caixao Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,686
    Gendanken,

    And consider also that China's number one resource at present is people power. Eventually their one-child policy will drastically curtail that resource.

    I used to work in a warehouse that received all sorts of products from China. The boss went to visit the factories a few times and came back to tell us of how the shipping containers were loaded and moved.
    By hand.
    People would transport boxes miles on their backs. On their bicycles. In cars. In trucks. However they could get it there. Picture the Ho Chi Minh trail and you wouldn't be far wrong.
    And she also told stories of how shippin containers were moved sometimes. Not with a truck. But with long ropes and hundreds of people.

    People power.
     
  18. Clockwood You Forgot Poland Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,467
    It isn't the same China of days gone by any more than England today is the same England of the Celts or Saxons or Normans or Romans. The government changed, the culture changed, and the language changed. It may have done so a little bit slower, but only because it was delayed at spear point.
     
  19. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    Towards…let’s explore:

    Your ever rosy picture of China and its burgeoning economic might never mentions the potentially disasterous problems this nation faces.....

    I’m worried about the erosion of China’s environment then anything else, now about the debt situation:

    Some statistics quote as much as 50% of the loans Chinese banks have given may be unrecoverable. You speak of American debt, yet China's only remedy may be its continued hope of attracting more foreign currency. Just like past Asian tigers, China may have an economic breakdown based on debt, as well.

    Every month China gets $10 billion in her coffers from trade, in September 2004 according to the latest issue of the economist China has $514 billion…you heard me billion dollars worth ready for any scenario, and that is increasing at a alarming rate (which could cause inflation), the United States has total foreign debt in excess of $3 trillion, China has $200 billion worth of foreign debt…alas China’s assets outnumber China’s foreign liabilities, considering that China’s economy is already 64% that of the American…that is a feat to be sure. China has no problem with attracting investment and currencies, if I were to add Greater China’s wealth this is the picture:

    Chinese FDI inward Stock

    2000:$348.3 billion
    2003: $501.5 billion

    Chinese exports:

    2000: 249.2 billion
    2003: 436.1 billion
    2004: 593 billion
    net increase btwn 2003-2004: 156.9 billion

    Chinese FOREX:

    2000: 168.2 billion
    2003: 412.7 billion
    2004: 514.5 billion

    Greater Chinese GDP PPP:

    2000: 5,074,820,000,000
    2003: 7,199,700,000,000
    2004: 7,811,000,000,000
    2006: 9,100,000,000,000
    2007: 12,400,000,000,000
    2025: 25,155,000,000,000

    United States:

    2000: 9,963,000,000,000
    2003: 10,990,000,000,000
    2004: 11,330,690,000,000
    2006: 12,231,536,508,450
    2007: 13,700,000,000,000
    2025: 18,881,000,000,000

    Guess who is the United States’ biggest creditor?

    China also continues to have a monumental problem with corruption...

    It’s still a third world nation…remember the United States post-civil war was also a extremely corrupt nation, in tandem with its massive industrialization, wealth does that. China will go through a recession eventually so it should to curb investment, but this is not a unique Chinese experience.

    The Chinese government, which must crush civil rights in order to maintain power, is beginning to lose control over its country.

    Frankly Chinese today have more freedom then at any other time in Chinese history, as hard that is to believe. I was watching a CBC documentary on the new China, and people are pretty much allowed to what they want except criticizing the government, 0therwise you can do a lot more today then in 1989. China has changed as well, and is now allowing private property, and some reform.

    A major point, Undecided, that you refuse to make is that the Chinese government may well be the largest obstacle in the path of the nations prosperity.

    Where did I ever say it wasn’t? When you find that quote then we may discuss…don’t put words in my mouth thank you.

    The Chinese government will never let go enough to give up power, and its billion poor farmers are just waiting for a small economic decline in order to revolt. This is the history of China, and it is inevitable to repeat itself without a huge political reform.

    Chinese farmers incomes are increasing, and now that more and more people are leaving for the cities that means less competition for land and resources, alas we have the same scenario that we had in the United States when she was industrializing, a more productive agricultural sector with less labour. I do fear greatly the income inequality in China, that is becoming a problem and one that one should not take lightly…but as is the United States and her 3rd worldesqe income inequality.

    China has always been an unstable nation always on the verge of revolution, I think the clock here may be ticking....

    Make sure you have a piece of toilet paper when ur done…we don’t want a mess.

    The yellow river is drying up, and a water shortage may be inevitable in the future due to both pollution and poor water management. This is a little stated catastrophe that may become realized in the next few decades. Robert Kaplan, an avid traveler and writer, makes detailed notes of this problem in many of his books.

    I agree that is China’s single greatest problem…one that cannot be resolved easily.

    China's future may not be a rosy as one may think

    No but I’d say its better then the American future.
     
  20. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    Vslayer and undecided remind me of those people in that shitty movie independence day who get on the roof of that sckyscraper with their signs excitedly welcoming the aliens, only to be blown to smithereens.

    And you remind me of a typical American who can't write properly...

    I almost hope they get what they wish for, just so they can feel stupid when they're the property of cruel mongol overlords

    No I won't feel stupid...I think you should feel stupid for accepting tax cuts that will make u slaves to Chinese capital...last laugh is on me mein friend...

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  21. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

    Messages:
    24,690
    And my point is precisely that indeed it is the same China.

    England is a perfect example, it made a quantum jump (and not necessarily in a forward direction) with every invasion. The language and culture of the original Celtic Britons are lost, only shards of them survive in Wales, Cornwall, and Brittany. When the Romans left and the Saxon colonists became the rulers, Latin was forgotten along with most of Roman culture, except within the walls of the monasteries. Only the Norman invasion followed a path similar to the "takeovers" of China. After a few centuries the Normans forsook their French tongue and began speaking (a heavily modified) English. The England of today has no continuity with either the gene pool or the culture of the Britons, any more than today's Arab Egyptians have any continuity with the Cushites of the Pharaonic Era, or the dominant culture in North America has any substantive links to the Na-Dene and Athabascan people.

    The Chinese, on the other hand, speak and write a language that evolved steadily from the language of their ancients. Their traditions followed a similar course. Every band of foreign marauders that "conquered" China was ultimately swallowed up and assimilated. Admittedly they contributed something to the culture (although virtually nothing to the loanword-hostile Chinese language) but they paid a heavy price. No band of Mongols has ever regained the stature of Genghis Khan, and China swallowed not only the Manchu people but even their native land, Manchuria.
     
  22. towards Relax...head towards the light Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    640
    "China has $200 billion worth of foreign debt…alas China’s assets outnumber China’s foreign liabilities", Undecided

    China's accounting has been way off, and it is surely hiding reality. As my previous article stated, local governments alone have 129 billion dollars worth of debt. Billions more are in bad loans, and those loans continue to be given at a generously vigorous pace to ensure the economy keeps growing and growing. Double that for the bad loans, which include 260 billion at this point, and then add the foreign debt. The loans will continue to add in order to fuel the economy. This is a repeat of the scenario that caused other asia tigers to fall. It is that foreign currency that continues to keep the economy going, especially from the U.S. What happens when that foreign currency can no longer drive that economy?


    "Greater Chinese GDP PPP:

    2000: 5,074,820,000,000
    2003: 7,199,700,000,000
    2004: 7,811,000,000,000
    2006: 9,100,000,000,000
    2007: 12,400,000,000,000
    2025: 25,155,000,000,000
    "

    So between 2003 and 2004, Chinese GDP grew by about 8.5%. Then you expect it to grow by another 62% in three years? Are you serious? Secondly, since you forsee the fall of the U.S. economy, what resources and money will continue to finance this huge economic growth? The Chinese people themselves do not have that much money to buy their own products.
    That 62% growth is what I mean by Rosy.

    "China will go through a recession eventually so it should to curb investment, but this is not a unique Chinese experience.", Undecided

    It will not be just a recession but a hard economic fall. This is when the situation with its people will become ugly. The United States really did not become a world power until corruption began to end and labor laws began to fall in place. The United States, however, did not have to deal with 900 million poor peasants, and the fact that they will NEVER be able to get near the share of the pie that their Americans counterparts did.


    "but as is the United States and her 3rd worldesqe income inequality.", Undecided

    THe United States may not be concerned about the inequality of itself and the rest of the world, but it certainly does not have near the inequality of the Chinese people and its wealthy class. The vast majority of Chinese are dirt poor.

    "Where did I ever say it wasn’t? When you find that quote then we may discuss…don’t put words in my mouth thank you.", Undecided

    Your rosy picture could not possibly factor in the Chinese government. You believe that the Chinese economy will become a world power, but it is simply not possible under the current government. A revolution is inevitable, its just a matter of whether there will or will not be violence.

    "No but I’d say its better then the American future", Undecided

    Not nearly as bad as many think, but that is another thread.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    "Make sure you have a piece of toilet paper when ur done…we don’t want a mess.", Undecided

    I prefer not to respond to poopoo jokes, but I have plenty of Charmin ultra, thank you very much.....
     
  23. Undecided Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,731
    China's accounting has been way off, and it is surely hiding reality. As my previous article stated, local governments alone have 129 billion dollars worth of debt. Billions more are in bad loans, and those loans continue to be given at a generously vigorous pace to ensure the economy keeps growing and growing. Double that for the bad loans, which include 260 billion at this point, and then add the foreign debt. The loans will continue to add in order to fuel the economy.

    Again her FOREX accounts make up for that disparity, I was talking to my Economic historian professor about this very same situation let me put it like this so you understand why China is indeed a major power:

    The Chinese save massive amounts of money, Americans save 1.2% of their national income. The Chinese have accumulated FOREX worth in excess of $515 billion, Japan another $700 billion, Taiwan $250 billion, Hong Kong $115+ billion, etc. Why? because American people don't save anything, the US consumes 80% of the world's savings, the US economy is now totally dependent on China and the gang for its economic well being. If the Chinese tommorow say "we will stop buying American dollars" the US currency would collapse, so would US demand, and a depression of the likes we haven't seen since the 1930's would ensue. This is the single greatest economic issue facing the world today, America's insatiable demand being floated by Asia's frugality, its a cycle. If China tommorow went into a recession the US would be in a hard place to be sure, because then the Chinese have to reorient their economy to consumption. Imo the Chinese recession will occur when the Chinese economy has overinvested (which it already has), and will be forced to start consuming to make that excess capacity work. That means that the US will have to do with less as a result since the Chinese will start demanding Yuan, and inflation hits China which will create lower demand for US dollars. The Chinese and the United States are locked in a mortal embrace, and the longer this imbalance goes on the worse it gets for the capitalist economy.

    What happens when that foreign currency can no longer drive that economy?

    Are we talking about the US? Because I know that China is thankful that the US dollar is going down and the US is paying a hard price for letting the dollar go down. Firstly the Chinese Yuan remember is fixed to the US dollar at a rate 8.28/1, thus as the US currency loses its potency against the Euro, Chinese exports will be EVEN cheaper against the Japanese, and European markets because those currencies are appreciating, this illustrates the power of modern China. She has the future of the economy in her hands, the US now is begging China (literally) to do something about the massive imbalance, because the falling US has done nothing to stem the flow of imports which has only increased to record levels regardless of the fall in the dollar value. Also the US dollars decline hastens the inevitable loss of the US as the world's hegemonic economic player, Russia has already annouced that she will start buying Euros instead of dollars, and nations that invest in US dollars are going to ultimately lose money unless the US Fed raises interest rates to make up for the loss. The world cannot have a net debtor nation as its reserve because its reserve is in the rest of the world, we are seeing the rise of the EU and China in a multipolar world, and the decline of that "great American empire" and frankly I'd rather see Brussels then Washington...its about fucking time.

    "Greater Chinese GDP PPP:

    2000: 5,074,820,000,000
    2003: 7,199,700,000,000
    2004: 7,811,000,000,000
    2006: 9,100,000,000,000
    2007: 12,400,000,000,000
    2025: 25,155,000,000,000
    "

    So between 2003 and 2004, Chinese GDP grew by about 8.5%. Then you expect it to grow by another 62% in three years?

    Sorry I should have written down that the 2007 figures are from I believe newsweek and those are of Greater China (China, Taiwan, Macau, HK), but yes generally speaking those are the figures available to me, so its a more or less. Take it or leave it...

    Secondly, since you forsee the fall of the U.S. economy, what resources and money will continue to finance this huge economic growth?

    The Euro...why do you think China and the EU are starting to work so much together? I mean to everyone but Americans it seems see's how weak the US economy really is. when I say the American fall I don't nessecarily mean a massive all at once fall, but a gradual but increasingly noticeable decline in American standards of living, and income, its already gone down for many Americans...and with the concentration of wealth in the upper classes of American society the few will get richer and the poorer will really get poorer, neo-liberalism at its finest.

    The Chinese people themselves do not have that much money to buy their own products.

    They have 7,811,000,000,000, the problem is China is that not many are buying...its still a investment based economy.

    It will not be just a recession but a hard economic fall.

    Most forecasts foresee a soft landing in China, from the economist, and slower growth in China means...7.5% growth...think about that.

    The United States really did not become a world power until corruption began to end and labor laws began to fall in place.

    Slowly happening in China...its typical growing pains, the more important the Chinese economy gets, she will have to become more transperant to attract investment.

    The United States, however, did not have to deal with 900 million poor peasants, and the fact that they will NEVER be able to get near the share of the pie that their Americans counterparts did.

    True, I don't doubt that social inequality is quite an issue in China and always has been, one of the prime motivators of 1949 and here is where the CCP has lost its way. But that is capitalism, isn't this what the US wanted? The fact is that we have only seen the begining of Chinese growth, who knows how far it could go, surely larger then the US economy by leaps and bounds. Also by mid-century China's population is expected to start a decline.

    THe United States may not be concerned about the inequality of itself and the rest of the world, but it certainly does not have near the inequality of the Chinese people and its wealthy class. The vast majority of Chinese are dirt poor.

    So are an increasing amount of Americans...its ironic how the American complains about the Chinese inequality but ignores his own. The US and China are in the same boat the only difference is that in China there seems to be a general trend upward for society, in the United States the opposite.

    Your rosy picture could not possibly factor in the Chinese government.

    Again don't put words into my mouth thank you...

    You believe that the Chinese economy will become a world power,

    What's there to believe it already is.

    but it is simply not possible under the current government.

    It certainly is...look at Wal-Mart for instance, no one wants a democracy in China because as you say the income inequality is so bad. If elections were held who is to say that the socialists wouldn't come back to power and totally rack the Chinese economy back to its Maoist foundations?

    A revolution is inevitable, its just a matter of whether there will or will not be violence.

    Ok Marx...revolution is not inevitable if the Chinese gov't can reform in tandem with economic growth. You seem to forget that Marx noted two possibilites for the capitalist economy...revolution or reform, and reform has won out.

    Not nearly as bad as many think, but that is another thread.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    No its really bad...
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2005

Share This Page