What stocks would be a good buy right now?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Algernon, Apr 20, 2009.

  1. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    How on earth do they get away with that? On what grounds do they prevent new medical schools forming?
     
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  3. 786 Searching for Truth Valued Senior Member

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    Ops, I accidentally wrote breast cancer... it is indeed a test for cervical cancer.

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    Peace be unto you

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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    You need quite a staff of doctors to start a medical school. Doctors get a lot of their business via referrals from other doctors. It is a close knit profession: Doctors are very reluctant to ever testify against another doctor, even if he took out the wrong organ and left the cancer infected organ in!

    In many states, they serve on the educational standards new school approval boards. - No matter how rich you are you cannot start a new medical school without a lot of government approvals. Guess who is at least advising those government agencies, both as to the need for more schools and about your qualifications to run one, if not actually serving on those review boards.
     
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  7. quadraphonics Bloodthirsty Barbarian Valued Senior Member

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    The stated motive is that there is an oversupply of doctors (really). The mechanism for doing it is that in order to start a medical school, one requires the approval of the relevant state licensing board. These licensing boards are dominated by AMA members, who apply overly strict requirements on the basis of an oversupply of physicians, thereby restricting supply and so inflating their wages.

    There are numerous other things that the AMA does to inflate prices and doctor pay, such as banning advertizing and other types of competitions between physicians (under threat of expulsion from the AMA and revocation of the medical license). They also have a long history of vociferous lobbying on things like Medicare, malpractice law, insurance, etc.
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Additionally physician residencies are funded through the Medicare program.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)

    "Medicare is a social insurance program administered by the United States government, providing health insurance coverage to people who are aged 65 and over, or who meet other special criteria. The program also funds residency training programs for the vast majority of physicians in the United States. Medicare operates as a single-payer health care system.[1]" - Wikipedia
     
  9. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    SUMMARY of posts 83, 84, & 85:

    The AMA does not want the US public to have access to cheaper medical service, so they spend millions every year on lobbying Congress and public propaganda to convenience the voters of the “evils of socialized medicine.” Doctors want to keep their high fees, not be on salary as in Europe, and don’t care that much of the US population cannot afford to see doctor, until treatment is much more expensive or impossible. The AMA is the most effective self-serving labor union in the world and the direct reason why medical care in the US cost twice what it does in Europe, yet delivers several years LESS life expectancy.

    This is not likely to change because the AMA is a private corporation - like Cargill* - so you cannot buy stock in it and vote for new policies.

    * They too are raping the US tax payer, collecting billions each year in farm subsidies, sometimes for not planting!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 5, 2010
  10. Dinosaur Rational Skeptic Valued Senior Member

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    The complaints & abuses mentioned in this thread are unintended consequences of government control. When the government gets the authority to regulate an industry, politicians start getting lobbied by those who want to influence the nature of the regulation.

    The high cost of campaigning for office results in politicians catering to those who can supply money for campaigning efforts.

    Politicians are focused on getting elected. They are not focused on solving problems or helping the average person.
     
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Are you seriously suggesting greed should have no limits? Do you hold Ayn Rand's point of view, as Greenspan did? (He spent many hours in her living room as part of her right-wing discussion groups and that is why he unrealistically thought the banks would make prudent loans that benefited the nation instead of the greed-inspired, high-leverage, toxic trash, they packaged into MBSs and quickly sold to others.)
    Certainly, and IMHO, that is the way representative democracy should work. Let your representatives know what you want them to do.
    True in the US getting re-elected is their main concern and they do the bidding of the wealthy. That is because they need the great sums of money that only a few wealthy can give to their campaigns. What is needed is a working limit on how much they can receive from any group or person, say $250.

    They should get free TV time as they do in Brazil.* The amount of time each gets is proportional to the fraction of the vote they and or their party got in the prior election. Because most people would rather watch "Sex in the City" etc, than hear a politician explain why we should vote for him (or her) all TV channels must simultaneously carry these free political speachs during the "political hour" which occurs a couple of times each week in the month before the election.

    If you are a registered candidate who has a new party and has never run before, you get only a few seconds of TV time. A few years ago one such character simply repeated "My name is Inas" "My name is Inas. ..." etc. as quickly as he could for his 20 or so seconds.

    The US has a system of elections that requires a great expenditures to get elected, so the government we elect is basic bought by those with the most money to spend. That is the problem, not that government needs to limit greed. The US has a sham democracy with TV brainwashed voters doing what the TV and newspapers told them to do. I.e. we get the worst government money can buy, and it shows!

    The US could also learn a great deal from Brazil as to how to conduct the actual voting. It is via a small electronic box and a secure communication network to central locations. Thus the results of the election are known within minutes after the polls close. These boxes display a photo of the candidate you are choosing just before you confirm that is your choice. - not everyone in Brazil can read. There are no large walk-in mechanical monsters with levers to pull, no paper ballads to mark or punch holes in, etc. For 30 years Brazil's voting mechanisms have be modern, not from the 1800s like the US's still are.

    -----------------
    * The broadcast spectrum belongs to you and me - not to CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox, etc. We grant them them a license to use it for a fixed period of years and can revoke it for just cause. It is a simple matter to require them the make a few "political hours" available for politicians, wealthy and poor alike, to tell the public what they would do if elected. But it ain't gonna happen! - The wealthy are in control of the US government and don't want the change the system we have where politician must do what they want to get re-elected. Brazil has a real, not a sham, democracy. It is illegal for newspapers or TV to tell you whom to vote for.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2010
  12. Kat9Lives Registered Senior Member

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    what you need is a good balance of speculative shares & blue chip shares. dont' put all your eggs in the one basket. my share portfolio is scattered across many different sectors/industries.
    if you can afford it, get a good financial advisor to manage the fund for you..
    if you get a good one, you can survive solely on the dividens..
    my motto - "gotta be in it to win it" - buy, sell, get educated. get to know the market.
    at the end of the day, it's a bit of a guessing game, but it's awesome!!
     
  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Ford on dips because is investing where the growth is (and GM can't with government a major owner still.):

    "... Ford has been pursuing its expansion plan in the emerging countries, including Argentina, Brazil, China, India and Thailand. Through the plan, the automaker aims to tap the growing market potential in other countries, especially those in Asia.

    In the first 10 months of the year, Ford’s sales in the Asian-Pacific and African regions shot up 39% to 731,724 vehicles. Ford anticipates 70% of its sales growth to come from Asia Pacific and Africa region in the next 10 years, mostly from China and India. Industry sales in the region are expected to grow from 16 million units in 2009 to 35 million units by 2018.

    {BT comment: with sales more than doubling, can you say "peak oil"? Asia has the money to buy $10/gallon gas. Joe American is still losing net worth as home prices decline ~2% / quarter.}

    Since 2009, Ford has invested $510 million in China and $500 million in India as part of its expansion plan. This year, Ford and Japan’s Mazda Motor announced their plan to invest $800 million in their Auto Alliance joint venture in Rayong, Thailand. ..."

    From: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/44349/Ford Out with 4 New Taiwan Models
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 8, 2010
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    "... Cargill, the largest privately held U.S. company, wants to distribute its 64% stake in Mosaic to diversify its family trust holdings and keep the business private. Cargill plans to distribute its 286 million Mosaic shares to Cargill shareholders and debtholders. The plan allows for the shares to be sold on the secondary market after a certain amount of time. ..."

    I wanted to buy shares in Cargill more than ten years ago, when I did buy shares in Bunge, which was then a Brazilian company buying and selling soy beans, mainly. I was not able to as shares were not traded. At the time it was the world's largest family business, when holdings of some oil rich sheiks are excluded.

    That made me a foe of Cargill and I have noted in many posts over the years that your tax dollars (in various farm price support programs) mainly go to make the very rich even richer. - Less than 1% go to the simple family farmer that Congress, well supported by the huge industrial farm lobby, likes to speak of when increasing farm subsidies.

    Soon however, it seems that the non-Cargill family will be able to buy shares in Cargill.
     
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    None according to this:
    I. e. says for each "worse than 28 of the 35," etc.) - Well worth reading and following the summary advice - get more into cash but, IMHO, I'd say much of that "cash" should be yellow, non-corroding, dense and metallic.
     
  16. Seattle Valued Senior Member

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    8,874
    Getting into cash is not good advice (or gold or any other non-productive assets). Buy land if you don't want to be in the stock market. There is nothing wrong with being in the stock market however. Just buy a company that is going to continue to do well and get it at the right price and forget about price after that until something changes or you are ready to sell.

    Market timing does generally work out. It requires being right twice...getting out and getting back in.
     
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Each to his own POV, especially about the future, but one can expect significantly higher prices for gold this year or possibly in only three months because:

    (1) Production of gold is getting more costly than general inflation as lower grade ores are mined. At $1200/oz few miners make a profit now but don't stop producing as long as they have funds to cover their loses as the interest on their loans must still be paid whether they produce or not (until they declare bankruptcy with zero production). (Better a small annual loss than a big one with no gold to sell.)

    (2) Asians are growing richer rapidly and have several thousand year old love affair with gold. Purchasing power of salaries in China is growing by small double digits annually. The official importation of gold into China in 2013 is more than 1000 tons and with what is smuggled in it has at least doubled compared to 2012 and is growing rapidly with Chinese wealth.

    (3) In 2013, India increased the import duty on gold five fold (2 to 10%) and that did greatly lower legal imports, but did not stem the out flow of funds or the decline of the value of the rupee. All it really did was to increase smuggling and smuggler's profits while lowering the government's revenue on gold imports, so India is now thinking of lowering the duty again.

    (4) India and China currently import (both legal and smuggled) gold about equal to annual production (excluding China's ~400 tonnes /year, not an ounce of which is sold). The other countries with net imports are being supplied by taking gold from main western ETF vaults because selling it in China gives a 20 + or - 5% premium per ounce. The largest by far store of gold backing paper gold trades was at Comex and in 2013, but slightly more than 80% of the "registered" (or deliverable gold not already having a specific owner) left the vault in 2013 so the number of claims on each ounce still there is now 111.6 (up from 92 a week ago and from <20 a year ago) - huge , unstable leverage. See graph below and read full article at: http://seekingalpha.com/article/195...d-lows-as-jpmorgan-warehouse-accumulates-more

    (5) Central banks are now net buyers of gold, adding to the demand. Most are reducing the fraction of their reserves in dollars and increasing the gold fraction, but some are just diversifying into other currencies, like the Euro. BTW, the holding cost of land (taxes) is many times higher than gold left in the custody of GLD and selecting what land to buy is not easy (New glue factory or noisy race track next door can deliver big loss, which is not possible with current price of gold) Also there are sales commission and transfer taxes to pay - about a 7% immediate loss on your investment typically and >3% when you sell, assuming you can find a buyer. I.e. with ~12% appreciation you can "break even" except for the "opportunity cost" of not getting any interest on the money tied up. Residentially zoned land has no "glue factory fear" but can also drop drastically in value - look at Detroit.)

    (6) At the current rate of fall of deliverable gold in Comex vault, the vault will be empty in only ~80 days. Then the traders of paper gold who could have asked for physical delivery at long contract expiration time, will just get an IOU, unless Comex enters the open market and pays what ever price the holder of London Good Deliver, LGD, bars demands. The era of paper gold traders setting the price of gold is essentially over. The law of supply and demand will return and demand at current prices is much higher than the supply.

    (7) Gold price is up$50/ oz in first two weeks of 2014. Here is part of why:
    Although big banks are telling clients: "Sell gold its going below $1100.” they are buying as much as they can for their own accounts. From link above:

    “HSBC added a good chunk of gold to its registered stocks, while JPMorgan continued its aggressive accumulation of gold from other warehouse as it transferred a huge amount of gold from Brinks. The net of these transactions was a new low in registered gold stocks as the COMEX warehouses now hold less than 400,000 ounces of registered gold.
    During 2013 banks were short gold – had sold paper gold with plans to buy back later (cover their short) so they manipulation the price lower to increase their gains, but now they want higher price – not that they will have much influence when the law of supply and demand controls the price. To see how easy this manipulation was done, read: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?134352-Gold-Bubble-goes-POP&p=3154140&viewfull=1#post3154140 and other posts there to understand why gold is such a “sure” investment now.

    (8) Also the German authorizes are investigating the German bank that was one of five who set the twice daily London fix of gold price, but it has resigned for than role - only four are left. The official leading the investigation say that the fraud / manipulation suspected is greater than that of the recent Libor manipulation, which made billions at the expense of most large borrowers with interest rates tied to the Libor rate.

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    In last six weeks, 697836 - 370137 = 327699 oz of deliverable gold were removed from the vault. That is a rate of removal of 7802.35 oz per calendar day (faster per business day). Thus now only 39.36 days, not the 80 days I calculated before, until vault is empty! I.e. rate of take out is accelerating as I predicted it would. Every ounce of "eligible' gold already has an owner. Comex is just storing it for them. They could sell it - let it be transferred by Comex to the "registered class", but most would only do so, especially when price is rising, only at much higher price - say > $2000/oz to get any significant increase in deliverable gold. They know that Comex is stuck over the "default barrel."
    The "s..t" will hit the fan no later than end of February 2014, and probably sooner.

    I admit this assumes that the US Congress will not approve shipping any gold at Fort Knox to China, where most now available in the open market is going.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 19, 2014
  18. river

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    Billy T

    Could gold double in the next year because of the lack of physical gold inventories ?
     
  19. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    your guess may be better than a coin flip for Yes no No answer, but coin flip is not bad, so I'll stick with it.
     
  20. river

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    I asked because on BNN.ca the other day , a person who specializes in gold thought that it could very well double in this yr.

    Some say otherwise of course

    The 4Q earnings should be interesting , so far , for the most part , stock prices seem to be validated , so far
     
  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    You would be wise to ask yourself when was the last time said person didn't see the price of gold doubling.
     
  22. river

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    In a yr. ?
     
  23. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    ever
     

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