What is next for Gold & Silver? (obsolute prices now removed)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, Dec 5, 2009.

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Where is Gold price going next? (give why in post)

Poll closed Nov 30, 2010.
  1. To $1100/oz and then to $1000/oz before back to $1200/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  2. To $1100/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1000/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  3. To $1300/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1400/oz

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. To $1300/oz and then to $1400/oz before back to $1300/oz

    5 vote(s)
    38.5%
  1. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    2,424
    Thats OK I sold out for a small profit ages ago. Am sitting on the sidelines right now.
     
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  3. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    I bought one of these 2011 silver pandas from a local coin shop. They look terrific, I'm tempted to get a gold one but I'd rather spend the money on hookers tbh.
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Many years ago, before buying my first house, my neighbor in next apartment showed me his first "presidential commemorative" silver coin from the Franklin Mint. It too was very pretty.

    He was to get one / month for each of the presidents. He was so sure it was a good deal (even when I noted that he was paying several times more than the silver was worth) that I bought shares in the Franklin Mint. - I made about a three fold profit in a year or so when I sold them. I doubt if he is breaking even still, despite the recent rise in silver, when the interest even in just a bank on his "investment" he could have made is considered, but I could be very wrong. Some play the "greater fool" game with great success. Perhaps he has.

    Possible problem with "Silver Pandas" if paying much more than silver value, is that some other private mint can make nearly if not exact copies. If they are concerned with copy right laws, they set up a corporation that orders from them and later let it go belly up.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 24, 2011
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198

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    For Gold historically that predicts 1483 x 1.207 = 1789.98, call it $1790/oz
    For Silver historically that predicts 33.85 x 1.346 = $45.56/oz, for an Au / Ag ratio of 39.29

    Interesting that for both Gold and Silver, with few exceptions (14 day total miss by two late September dates, plus once on 1 September) the annual high comes in the last quarter of the year for at least a decade. 12 of the 20 peak dates were in December! - Must be all those gold and silver Christmas gifts.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 29, 2011
  8. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    I predict argentum will be at $50 by December and aurum at $2000.

    Thems nice round numbers

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  9. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    12,738
    Back to $1,000 before end of year.
    Biggest Bubble since the last big bubble.
     
  10. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    We're nowhere near the last bubble when you consider the devalued dollar over that time.

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    But rest assured it WILL be in a bubble at some point.
     
  11. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    Good Graph. Thanks, you've changed my opinion of the situation.

    If it goes like the 1980 Bubble, there will be a further huge rise before it pops.
    If history repeats itself, $2300 would be a good place to get out.

    2005 to 2010 looks very similar to 1975 to 1980.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2011
  12. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    Did we ever devalue the dollar as much as we're just about going to do (QE11... etc...)

    Also, WHY is silver so cheap when there's actually less of it above ground (most is used) whereas most above ground gold is just sitting around in vaults.
     
  13. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    2,424
    Who knows but there is also quite a few people in the deflation camp. Lots of money destruction going on....

    I'm going with inflation....but who knows whats going to happen ultimately.
     
  14. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    12,738
    Isn't the decrease in the use of silver in photography a factor?

    Photography used 30.98% of the silver consumed in 1998 in the form of silver nitrate and silver halides. In 2001, 23.47% was used for photography, while 20.03% was used in jewelry, 38.51% for industrial uses, and only 3.5% for coins and medals. The use of silver in photography has rapidly declined, due to the lower demand for consumer color film from the advent of digital technology; since 2007, of the 894.5 million ounces of silver in supply, just 128.3 million ounces (14.3%) were consumed by the photographic sector, and the total amount of silver consumed in 2007 by the photographic sector compared to 1998 is just 50%.[16]


    From wiki


    @Pinwheel. Inflation is a surefire way of getting out of debt.
    So long as you owe the money in your own currency.
     
  15. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,626
    With over 2 trillion increase in the debt limit by the end of 2012 and only about 100 billion of the spending cuts slated during that period, doesn't the math work out that we can and will increase our debt by about 2 trillion over the next 17 months?

    Can we expect that most of the 2 trillion will be purchased by the Fed which equates to printing money and increased inflation? Couple that with a possible (likely) downgrade of US debt by then and increased interest rates which are also inflationary and the climate for precious metals continues to improve.

    If that is not right, what am I missing? Gold moving to over $2000 an oz and silver to $50 seems inevitable by then. Any comments pro or con?

    What happens to that picture if we fall back into recession this year?

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.0d79a84244dc2d4f0de55e87d89bcbfb.811&show_article=1
     
  16. Me-Ki-Gal Banned Banned

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    4,634
    Well looky here . Old Joe been hanging on to this hopefulness for a long time . Didn't quite work out how you planned aye Joe with a gun in your hand . Maybe there is not really a recovery ? Why do you think there would be with the assault on Business . Gut shot I tell Ya ! Gut shot animals die in the end . Slow and painfully
     
  17. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    My vote is for up to $2,300 and then down to $800 within 5 years.

    @Mi Ke Gal.
    You wouldn't use a gut shot on any animal you hunted would you?
     
  18. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,626
    Are you thinking that they find a cheap way to produce gold from lead within 5 years, lol? What kind of a scenario are you thinking about to bring back the $800 level?
     
  19. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    $800 is assuming a "Real" economic recovery. Frankly I find that very optimistic. But ...people have very short memories they might trust a "base" currency again in 5 years...doubt it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2011
  20. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    2,424
    Only as long as wage inflation goes up too. If not, then your everyday items are more expensive AND you still have the debt to repay using your existing income.
     
  21. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    12,738
    Up $38 yesterday.
     
  22. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    Prediction:
    Gold to be $2000 by the end of the year.
     
  23. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    But the Government, unlike an individual, can just print money.
     

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