US's economy has fully recovered?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Saint, Mar 13, 2012.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    That is true, but in similar fashion, some nutcase, partisan or scoundrel posting something on the web doesn’t make it true either. In the case of government and in specifically in this case, there are no secrets. None of this material, including source material is secret. It compiled and published by the government. It is reviewed and scrutinized by business professionals and academics – all the time.

    How many people do you know who sell their dogs and cats for two million dollars each just to jack up a GDP number? And even if they were crazy enough to do so, how many dogs and cats would they have to sell and buy to make a material impact on a 16 trillion dollar economy? The CPI and GDP measures are long established and the methodology. It is used because of its predictive powers. If it were somehow flawed, it would be quickly noticed in academia and in the business world.

    Well you can contend that all you want. But the money spent on baseball games, haircuts, and movie tickets doesn’t stop being money just because you don’t like how it is being spent. The GDP is a measure of the entire economy, not portions of the economy. If you want limited or measures of specific sectors, the government publishes those numbers as well. If you want durable goods, the government reports on durable goods as well. http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

    So basically, what you are doing is taking a subsection of the GDP and calling it the entire GDP. That is misleading, it isn’t honest. If you want to ignore parts of the economy, if you want to mislead yourself, go for it. But don’t mislead others.

    And there is no “durable goods domestic product index”. There is a durable goods portion of the GDP. If businessmen and academics wanted to talk about durable goods instead of GDP, they could, but they don’t. They use both, because each tells them a portion of the economic story. But one does not replace or diminish the other.

    And your notions about China’s economy are equally nonsensical. The US economy is more than twice the size that of China – not to mention China faces a number of large and potentially devastating road bumps, including but not limited to governmental instability and demographic changes that are about to bite it in the derriere.
     
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  3. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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  5. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Well some people missed the boat. Some people are even poorer, namely the right wing nut cases who went out and foolishly invested in gold and silver because by God they knew Zimbabwe style hyperinflation was just around the corner. Yeah, fools lose their money. The ignorant partisan nut cases have a lot of crow to eat - not to mention a lot less wealth if they had really walked the walk that they preached and continue preach to others. I am responsible for many things. Obama is responsible for many things, but right wing stupidity isn't one of them.

    "American companies are finally getting comfortable enough with the economy’s prospects to add new workers at a very healthy pace, after years of saying they lacked the confidence to hire people aggressively during a fitful recovery.

    Employers added 288,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said Thursday, the fifth month in a row that hiring has topped the 200,000 mark. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 percent last month, the best reading since September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers turned what had been a mild recession into an economic rout.

    Since then, many segments of the economy have rebounded — including corporate profits, Wall Street and the housing market — even as payrolls inched higher at a grindingly slow rate. Now, these broader economic gains are prompting businesses to actually hire significantly more workers in response to growing demand, rather than taking half steps, like adding hours to stretch existing work forces." New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/04/business/jobs-data-for-june-released-by-labor-department.html

    Republicans have done everything possible to foment distrust and unrest including some very serious threats to cause an intentional US debt default and another economic disaster. People, business people, took those threats seriously as well they should. Now it appears that the irrational Tea Party is losing its strength, and that is a good thing for business and the country.
     
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  7. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    More Americans are stuck in part-time work

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    Welcome to the New Economy



    From Joe's NYT link:
    So, the Tax Payer just picked up 26,000 more full time Government jobs that they MUST pay for out of their Labor Tax on their three part time jobs. Unlike Part-Time America, those full time Government Jobs are paid sweet medical benefits (from their choice of Private Healthcare options). Good full-time Government jobs, with yearly wage increases, long vacation time, lots of job security, plenty of benefits, all public holidays off, good hours. Yes, life is pretty f*cking good if you work for the State. Like any cancer, the State continues to grow and metastasize, until it kills it's host.


    Now, pay your Labor Tax, you have 26,000 new Farmers that need more of your milk and meat - so start producing like good little State Owned Tax Chattel in your Farmer's Tax Pen.
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    You should read the articles you reference and drop the specious sources. In the face of overwhelming good news, you want to quibble over sectors of the labor force?
    Part-time unemployment was up last month, but overall it is down on the year.
     
  9. brucep Valued Senior Member

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    4,098
    Idiot wind. We bailed out the 'bald heads' to save some of our own ass. Lots of folks 'lost the financial ability' to participate in the market and lots of people told Wall Street to shove the micro second trading and overall sociopathy where the sun don't ever shine.
     
  10. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    27,402
    The structural changes in the US economy make "recovery", in the ordinary sense, almost meaningless.

    The last time the wealthy pulled a smash and grab like this, it took WWII to pry the wealth out of their hands - we had to bomb their holdings to rubble.
     
  11. brucep Valued Senior Member

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    4,098
    There was a historical precedent for the smash and grab and americans fell for it again. A large portion of americans think Ronald Reagan had their best interests at heart and is the greatest modern president. More Idiot wind nonsense. He's the father of this oligarchy.
     
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    14,524
    Hmm. I did pretty well over the last few weeks. Does that mean that I am in the richest .1%? I can't be, because I am apparently not a right wing nut case who invested in gold. It's so hard to decide what pigeonhole I fit into lately . . .
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    Lol, I think it pretty obvious wasn't talking about weeks, and anyone who thinks a few weeks of trend hopping makes for a sage or good investor is a fool.

    And what I wrote was thus, if these right wing nut jobs really believed their rhetoric and invested accordingly, they would have taken some serious loses. And that really isn't a disputable issue. It is a documented fact. I suggest you stop cherry picking and crediting me with material I didn't author. I didn't say anything about the top 1% in my post. Were you a right wing nut who invested in precious metals? If you were, then you deserve the credit for your loses.

    The point being the right has been wrong about so much in recent years, when are they going to step up to the plate and admit they were wrong? Unfortunately, I don't think they have the honesty and intellectual ability to do so; nor is it in the interests of those who fund the movement to do so. So it won't happen. But facts are facts.
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2014
  14. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    CNBC

    Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon warns that shoppers aren’t returning at the pace one might expect years after the recession peaked, despite mainstream media interpretation of the data showing unequivocal growth. Simply put, he exclaims, "the unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force," adding that if we see a further drop in the participation rate it would fit with the fact that "middle-class and lower-class are still economically challenged, only spending during holidays and for family occasions," adding that traction has only come at the top-end.

    CNBC: "The US unemployment rate fell 6.1%. but walmart sales and traffic has been pretty sluggish. what's going on? where's the disconnect?"

    CEO Bill Simon: "I think the economic numbers - unemployment numbers particularly have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of the work force - and I think it's going to take a while - six months or a year - for those numbers to balance out. You'll see drop in the rate, and then - as more people come back into the workforce - that might change again. Hopefully after six years we start to gain traction in the US. That traction is coming at the top end but I think the middle down is pretty challenged.

    CNBC: "Is that the problem with sales, your consumers don't have as much disposable income to spend?"

    CEO Bill Simon: "Yes - Retail in general has not been robust in the last six years, in the last year particularly."


     
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    If you were an investor you would know you shouldn't believe everything a CEO says. We are in the middle of earnings season now. And some retailers are reporting some very good numbers, others like Wal-Mart are not. CEO's like to blame the economy for their errors and shortfalls. Costco sales were up 6%.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/15/retail-sales-june/12654525/
     
  16. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    Yup, thank the Gods the Privately owned "Central" banking retards bailed out the richest 0.01% (whom, coincidentally, own the regional banks who own the Federal Reserve: thus, they own our money, our economy, our society, us).


    Welcome to their Economy - do enjoy.
     
  17. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    2,830
    Just one look at the Congressional Budget Office forecast for US future already says everything, the Great Depression is coming and debt will rise even higher:

    http://cbo.gov/publication/45010

    :shrug:

    and that's just the tip of the iceberg, labor force for example is forecasted to be a great deficit in the future. That coupled with a growing large federal debt is spiralling down US economy into chaos.
     
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    14,524
    We have about a poster a year predict that the US's economy will soon collapse. Once a year for the past ten years or so.
     
  19. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    2,830
    I am not predicting a collapse, I am referring to an actual Federal document, not some news source, but US government saying what I just said.
     
  20. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    14,524
    You said "the Great Depression is coming." The document you referenced said nothing of the sort.

    Once again, about once a year we have someone with HARD FACT proving that the world is about to end.
    We can't support our debt! See, here's a document, so it's a HARD FACT.
    We will run out of oil! See, here's a study from the US DOE. It's a HARD FACT.
    The Apocalypse is upon us! See, it's referenced in seven places in the Bible. It's a HARD FACT.

    After the first ten fail to come true you start to realize "hey, these people are sort of always . . . wrong."
     
  21. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,830
    well thats just silly, you naive little thing. The facts are straight, the ongoing economic recession has not recovered, Debt is rising, workforce is decreasing, and the grim economic outlook of US economy is quite appalling to say the least.

    Budget Deficits
    increasing federal debt:
    economic growth will slow down:
    decreasing labor work force:
    all from "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024" at http://cbo.gov/publication/45010
     
  22. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    2,830
    Oh the world will go on happy without US, trust me. US isnt the "world" there are plenty of happiness around elsewhere.
     
  23. Aqueous Id flat Earth skeptic Valued Senior Member

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    6,152
    No, a crash of the US economy would be fatal to the rest of the world. You need us a hell of a lot more than we need you.
     

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